IHSG +1,25% ke 7.071,327disesi I Senin (23/12). IDX-Infra +1,70% IDX-Cyclic +1,47%, dan IDX-basic 1,34%. Dari sisi saham, BBRI jadi penopang terbesar mencapai 17,6 indeks poin +2,96%. Diikuti TLKM 10,46 indeks poin +3,53%. BBCA di 9,89 indeks poin +1,55% dan BMRI 9,01 indeks poin +1,76%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Game Plus Arcade, available only on RCTE Plus Super App. Play it now!
00:30Good evening, Mr. David.
00:42Thank you, Mr. Adrian, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:46In the beginning of the week, Mr. Adrian, Indekargasam Kabungan is back to 1%.
00:50And technically, it's back to the level above 7,000.
00:55What is your analysis of the strengths that have occurred throughout today's trading
01:00after experiencing quite a lot of pressure in the last few trades?
01:05Yes, in my opinion, there are several things that are an indication of today's ESG reversal.
01:11The first is that from 22 December yesterday, there was a liberalizing FTSE.
01:19Yes, a liberalizing FTSE index.
01:20So, indeed, the liberalizing of FTSE is quite a lot that has been corrected.
01:23Previously, there was also a correction in the increase in our records.
01:28Then, there was an increase in the balance.
01:29Now, today, it looks like the market has rebounded to the level of 7,000.
01:33Technically, it's starting to close the gap.
01:35Before that, it will test the resistance, maybe, at the level of 7,200 until the end of this year.
01:41Okay, how about the fundamentals, sir?
01:45Did the release of the U.S. FTC inflation data last Friday
01:49seem to give new hope for traders
01:52when the Fed announced earlier that it would be more cautious
01:57to break the non-aggressive flow in 2025?
02:01With the latest U.S. inflation data in November,
02:05will this give fresh wind for the future?
02:09Yes, actually, the inflation data gives fresh wind.
02:12Of course, it gives fresh wind to the economy,
02:15to the investors as well, because maybe there will be a flow.
02:19At the end of the day, the forecast is only about 2 times or a maximum of 50 basis points in 2025 by the Fed.
02:26Well, maybe what will be more concerned by investors is the policy of President-elect Donald Trump.
02:32In addition to his tariff policy, he will also remove the debt ceiling,
02:37the policy to remove the U.S. debt.
02:39Well, this is more of a death threat by investors.
02:42It seems like it could shake up the capital market as well,
02:48related to the policy.
02:50I mean, Mr. Hadrian, previously, the investors were pessimistic, sir.
02:54When Jerome Powell said that he would be cautious in 2025,
03:00that he would only break the non-aggressive flow a few times.
03:03With the release of the latest U.S. inflation data,
03:06which tends to fluctuate, will this add ammunition?
03:09Or will the Fed continue to be cautious in the future?
03:13Yes, I think it's still cautious.
03:15This is actually according to the forecast.
03:17But it is indeed fresh wind, but in a short term.
03:20As far as I can see, in terms of the Indonesian capital market,
03:23it's more like a rebalancing function is ending.
03:25So maybe this is also included, including the cautiousness.
03:32But overall, this may be short-term until the end of the year.
03:36Okay, where will the joint venture capital market go next, Mr. Hadrian?
03:41Technically, it's still closing the gap.
03:43Hopefully, it will test its resistance at the level of 7,200.
03:46With support, it will be 7,000 again.
03:48So 7,000 will be psychological support again.
03:51Leaving a few days of trading ahead,
03:54there will be National Holidays, Christmas, and New Year.
03:57How do you see the opportunity for Santa Claus Rally,
04:00or also Winter Dressing in December this year?
04:04Yes, I think Santa Claus Rally and Winter Dressing will last for a few days.
04:09Most likely, it will happen, but it's very minimal.
04:11Most likely, in the banking sector, it's also relatively minimal.
04:14Maybe the ISG will only be closed at the level of 7,100 or 7,200.
04:18This is our estimate at the end of this year.
04:20Okay, what is the estimate in revision from the previous target?
04:25Far, sir.
04:26Before November, we were quite optimistic
04:30that it could reach the level of 7,800 or even 8,000.
04:33But in the end of the year, we revised quite a lot
04:37to the level of 7,100 or even 7,200 at the end of the year.
04:40Okay, the target until the beginning of the year, sir,
04:42at least does not include indicators from January Effect later.
04:47Yes, after January Effect, I think the ISG will be optimistic
04:51that it will return to the level of 7,300 or even 7,500.
04:55Because we see that there will be a lot of IPO projects
04:59that will enter in January.
05:01We have calculated 8 emitters, sir.
05:03With several large market caps such as CBDK, RATU, and all kinds.
05:07So, the ISG can continue to be optimistic in January.
05:11Okay, from the sectoral movement rotation, the Big Cap Banking,
05:14if we look at the stock side,
05:17it seems to be the main supporter of today's joint index.
05:20Especially from the BPRI, which experienced an increase of more than 3%.
05:26How do you see technically
05:28the position of Samsung's Big Cap Banking
05:31in the middle of the strengthening at the beginning of this week?
05:36Yes, if the BPRI, actually there are a lot of BPRI,
05:39the independent BPRI has entered the strong support zone.
05:42Like the BPRI support in the all-time low of 2024,
05:47actually in 4090.
05:48So, this has entered the strong support area.
05:51In the case of the BPRI and the independent, it's the same.
05:54There is a trend like that.
05:56In fact, fundamentally, they are still performing.
05:59Especially the BNI, they are still performing.
06:01Like the BCA too.
06:03Yes, we also mentioned the BCA earlier.
06:07Yes, the 50 trillion record.
06:09So, fundamentally, they are still performing.
06:11Technically, they are in the strong support zone.
06:13So, I think it's time for them to rebound.
06:17Okay, looking back, Mr. Hadrian,
06:20Samsung's Big Cap Banking usually rose significantly,
06:23then this condition did not last long.
06:25Even one day of trading,
06:27for the next day, the investors are more likely to profit.
06:30How is the condition for now?
06:32Will the strengthening continue?
06:34Let's go straight to the BPRI, sir.
06:36Technically, where will it go?
06:42I think there is a significant strengthening.
06:45Technically, the resistance is at 4200 to 4400.
06:53While the support is at 4090 to 4000.
06:55In fact, the BPRI, from all the banking,
06:58is the only one that is still quite strong in terms of net sell for rent.
07:03Maybe the BPRI can be left,
07:05will have potential when the net sell for rent starts to decline.
07:08If it is recorded from this December-November,
07:11it is always the net sell for rent that is recorded.
07:14So, the BPRI needs an indication from the info area.
07:18We see that if the info has entered,
07:21maybe that is the right timing area for investors to start entering.
07:26Besides support and resistance, what level of entry is there for the BPRI?
07:30I actually recommend a gradual entry.
07:34So, you can use multiple entry strategies.
07:37The first is maybe in NA10, in the 4200 area,
07:40you can enter a little first.
07:42Later, when there is foreign info,
07:44then NA20, at level 4250,
07:47then you can add more items.
07:49Okay, with the target price, how much was it until the end of the year?
07:54Maybe around 4,260 to 4,400.
07:59That's the initial range, the BPRI.
08:01Okay, from the BPRI, let's move to the other big cap banks.
08:05Mr. Hathrian, let's go to the BBCA first, sir.
08:08Among the big cap banks,
08:10the BBCA has the most resistance compared to the other big cap banks.
08:14Today, it was 98,
08:16but the position of strengthening is more towards the limit
08:20and back to 9,700.
08:22Any analysis for the BBCA, direction, support and resistance, and recommendations?
08:26See you at the end of the year.
08:28Yes, BBCA.
08:31The BPRI or hold that still has resistance is around 10,000.
08:36So, areas MA10, 20, 200 are gathered in that area, at level 10,000.
08:42The support can be limited to 9,550, the lowest level in the last three days.
08:48For the BBCA, it is quite strong compared to the other big cap banks.
08:53Is there a chance to reach 10,000, sir?
08:55Until the end of the year for the BBCA.
08:59I think there is, because it's not too far, only 2%.
09:02So, the BBCA has three days left,
09:04enough potential to reach level 10,000.
09:07Okay, good.
09:08Meanwhile, in general, which of the pick-up banks do you recommend the most?
09:14Is it the BBRI, BBCA, or other pick-up banks?
09:19Actually, there are two.
09:22If you want to be a little defensive, I think BBCA is the strongest.
09:26If you want to be a little aggressive, you can take BBNT or Mandiri,
09:30because it's usually sharper.
09:32For BBNT, I avoid it first,
09:34because of the four banks, the biggest and clearest net self-foreign is BBNT.
09:39So, we avoid it first, maybe the direction is aggressive in Mandiri or BBNT,
09:44the direction is quite the same.
09:46Or the more defensive in BBCA.
09:49Okay, what is the level of BBRI, sir?
09:52For BBRI, I recommend Spektuasi Bri in the current area at 5,800 with support at 5,500.
09:59The closest target is at 6,100 until the end of the year.
10:02Okay. Analysis and recommendations from Samsung pick-up banks,
10:05which are the main supporters of the joint stock index throughout today's trade.
10:10If from the sector side, Mr. Hadrian,
10:12today the infrastructure also seems to be the biggest supporter from the sector side.
10:18There is Telkom, sir, today it rose, the increase was almost 4%.
10:23Do you have analysis and recommendations for Telkom,
10:25where the position is still at a low level so far?
10:30Yes, Telkom technically has a CCK double bottom at 2,500,
10:36but it just passed the neckline at the area of 2,800.
10:40Technically, Telkom actually has a rebound potential,
10:43because it has already found its bottom.
10:45But in a fundamental way, Telkom has challenges.
10:48I feel the first challenge is the price of the internet, which is getting cheaper.
10:52If you feel that the internet payment is continuous,
10:55maybe 10 MB is a few hundred thousand,
10:57now we estimate 100 MBPS is only 300 thousand.
11:02The price of Telkom outside this area is getting more and more depressed
11:05with a lot of mergers, such as Indosat and Hachisen.
11:09Later there will be another merger of Excel and Friend.
11:12So the competition outside Java will be more and more depressed with the price of Telkom.
11:16And the price of the internet, which tends to be cheaper.
11:18So this is a challenge for Telkom,
11:20with the current profit, how to survive and grow.
11:24Because the pressure of the competition continues.
11:27Technically, they have a rebound potential,
11:29but what is the fundamental?
11:30Let's see how it will be next year.
11:32From the policy point of view, the pressure on Telkom is quite significant.
11:36From 4,700 to the lowest level, at least in the last few years,
11:43and now it has reached 2,500,
11:46although today the rebound is at 26.
11:48Mr. Adrian.
11:50Yes.
11:51Therefore, at the end of the year, our prediction is around 2,700,
11:55relative to Telkom.
11:56Maybe 4-5% more target for the end of the year.
11:59Okay.
12:00In the midst of the current correction,
12:02the support and resistance has reached the limit.
12:05What is the recommendation?
12:07Then, is there a recommendation for certain levels,
12:10to buy on breakout?
12:12At least for the short term, to make the most of the increase, Mr. Adrian.
12:17Yes, for Telkom, in fact, in the short term,
12:19you can still ask to buy.
12:21I can recommend speculating to buy, with support at 2,500.
12:27Hello, Mr. Adrian.
12:28Yes, hello, Mr. David.
12:30Yes, for Telkom, you can speculate to buy.
12:33At what level, sir?
12:35Not the support, sir, at what level?
12:39Support at 2,500.
12:42Okay.
12:48Okay.
12:49Today's closing at 2,650,
12:51strengthening at 3.92%,
12:53where Telkom today also joined as a supporter of Indekarga Samkabungan
12:58in terms of position.
13:00The point index, BBRI, is in the first rank,
13:02and Telkom is in the second rank,
13:04especially at the closing of the first session this afternoon.
13:07We turn to Goto, sir.
13:08Goto, sir, today also joined as a supporter,
13:10has returned to above level 70.
13:13Your analysis and recommendations.
13:15And coincidentally, there is also a question that came in,
13:17there is Mr. John from Jakarta.
13:19Recommendations for Goto.
13:22Yes, it just so happens that Goto is on my list too.
13:25So Goto, indeed, I recommend to buy too,
13:27why?
13:28Enter the uptrend channel.
13:29As the channel is still uptrend,
13:31so I see he also went through to Miami Bond,
13:33above MA50,
13:34so this is a recommendation to buy in the 70s,
13:3670-71, with support in 67.
13:39The closest target can be under level 73-75 first.
13:44Okay.
13:45Opportunity for Goto until the end of the year?
13:49Yes, I think in front of the eyes,
13:51the end of the year is 73-75,
13:53for Goto.
13:5473 and 75.
13:55Is there a chance to return to the 80s, sir?
14:00Yes, maybe in January Effect.
14:01We expect the target 78-81
14:03to be reached in January Effect.
14:07Is it more recommended to buy now,
14:09or below 70, sir?
14:12I recommend to buy now,
14:13because if it's below 70,
14:15in terms of charting, it's already broken the channel.
14:17So if you want to take it technically,
14:19right now,
14:20in 70-71,
14:22it's still better than below 70.
14:25Below 70, the potential is different,
14:28the momentum is different.
14:31Goto today was closed,
14:32strengthened at 2.90%,
14:34at the level of 71 rupiah per share.
14:38Prospect in 2025, Mr. Hadrian,
14:40for Samsung Technology,
14:43if we relate it to the bankruptcy of Sukubunga Acuan,
14:46from a global point of view,
14:47or the opportunity from Sukubunga Bank Indonesia?
14:52Yes.
14:54Sukubunga, yes.
14:55So this Sukubunga,
14:56the connection can be to the banking sector,
14:58or property,
14:59or basic,
15:00but technology is also included.
15:02Why?
15:03Because there are many startup companies,
15:04like Goto,
15:05it's a special economy,
15:06Goto, Buka,
15:07it includes a digital company,
15:09usually they need a fairly cheap cost of fund.
15:13When Sukubunga fell,
15:15usually they have a cost of fund from Dora,
15:17so it's good,
15:18so it's cheap.
15:19With Tokopedia, with TikTok,
15:22with the existing ecosystem,
15:24we see that Goto is quite optimistic,
15:26with the growth,
15:27the loss is getting smaller.
15:29It just has to compete with Siopi in the market share.
15:32Is it enough to produce with TikTok?
15:35Because it's enough to produce,
15:36it can take the market share back,
15:38in a fundamental way,
15:39Goto will probably come back good,
15:40and the share price can rise again.
15:43Okay.
15:44It's quite optimistic in 2025.
15:45Yes.
15:46Review and recommendation from Samsung Pickup,
15:47which today became a supporter of the GASAM joint venture,
15:49so that the strength is above 1%,
15:51and again,
15:52the investment decision is still in the hands of the shareholder,
15:56We will be back,
15:57and we will also see what Samsung Pickup recommends,
16:01and at the same time,
16:02the closing of the trading session on the second day.
16:04We will be back after the break.