Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) berbalik arah koreksi tipis 0,12% ke level 7.057,291 sesi 1 Jumat (27/12). IDX-Techno -1,67% GOTO -4,41%, IDX-Finance -0,40% BBRI -2,38% kembali jadi laggards utama dan turun dalam 28,38% YTD. IDX-Cyclic -0,22% MAPI -2,48%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trading process is going on today.
00:12And we believe you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723, as shown on your television screen later.
00:23And right now, we are joined by Mr. Dharma Putra, Hendy Santoso, branch manager of JUC Sudirman.
00:29For our security, we will go straight to him.
00:31Good evening, Mr. Hendy. How are you?
00:33Good evening, Mr. Dave. How are you?
00:35Thank you, Mr. Hendy, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:39Mr. Hendy, do you feel that the trading activity in 2024 is just a matter of days, Mr. Hendy?
00:46Today, Indekargasam Kabungan is again in a slump and has dropped to the level of 7,100.
00:52How do you feel about the movement of Indekargasam Kabungan?
00:56At least in the last year, it was able to touch the highest intraday.
01:01However, for several months, the closing of 2024, IHSG is more tense.
01:08Your analysis.
01:10For IHSG, I see that it should not be far from the bottom of its support.
01:16Because we see that in the area of 7,000, it is very sustainable.
01:20For my analysis, in the short term, it should have entered the sideways phase or the accumulation phase.
01:31As far as I can see, it should be able to get a good technical rebound in January.
01:40That's it, Mr. Dave.
01:42Where will it go, sir? Support and resistance, perhaps, with the weakness that occurred today?
01:48For support, currently IHSG is in the area of 7,000 to 6,950.
01:55With the closest resistance, it is in the area of 7,160 to 7,220.
02:03Then with the next resistance, it is in the area of 7,350 to 7,400.
02:12Opportunities for joint venture capital, up to the end of the year trading,
02:16can only be left in Monday trading.
02:19It seems that this is also far from the target that has been set.
02:25Is it the same with JUC, Mr. Henning?
02:28That's right.
02:29For IHSG itself, if we look at the projection yesterday,
02:36there was a window dressing, but it turned out that there was no Santa Claus Rally either.
02:42For my projection, for IHSG, this should still be a very uptrend.
02:51It's just a temporary dynamic that I think should happen.
02:57Because the market is quite volatile and that's what IHSG is like.
03:05It's fun at IHSG like that.
03:07Okay, but from your point of view, what caused the window dressing,
03:11then Santa Claus Rally didn't happen in December.
03:14Is it from the sentiment side, especially from the global, quite heavy?
03:19So the investors are still careful, then still wait and see.
03:23Maybe related to the Suku Bunga policy in 2025,
03:28then Trump will also be appointed, he will be in office,
03:31and still waiting for what policies will be implemented in the future.
03:36That's right.
03:37Because these investors are currently waiting and seeing,
03:41especially the forex is still outflow, especially in our big caps.
03:45You can see in the data, that is, BRI, BCA, Mandiri, BNI, all outflow.
03:51Because everyone is waiting and seeing,
03:54after Trump is in office, will he immediately issue policies according to his promise?
04:03Because if it turns out, as we know,
04:09that Trump has a history in the previous government,
04:14he was a trader in China.
04:17Well, this time it looks like it can be even higher for his taxes.
04:22So if it turns out to be like that,
04:26China will automatically be taxed,
04:29and indirectly, the demand for commodities from Indonesia to China will also be taxed.
04:40Therefore, in addition to the Suku Bunga policy,
04:45according to the projection, it should be cut at least four times next year.
04:52But it turns out that at the FOMC meeting yesterday,
04:56Jerome Powell, the CEO of The Fed, said that it would only be cut twice.
05:06That is, a total of six basis points.
05:09Okay. But there are also many parties that project the opposite.
05:14Is there a possibility that The Fed will raise the Suku Bunga in 2025?
05:17Because Trump's policies will mostly affect inflation later.
05:22Right. We are still waiting for the next FOMC meeting in January, if I'm not mistaken.
05:29It will definitely be taxed when Trump is appointed.
05:36They will definitely see it first.
05:39It is impossible to raise it directly.
05:42So when he sees that the Suku Bunga policy is okay,
05:49it doesn't make inflation rise too high.
05:54If it rises by 3-4%, I think it's normal.
06:00But if it jumps to 5% and so on, it might be a consideration of The Fed.
06:08Mr. Hendy, when Santa Claus Rally is not held in December this year,
06:13what are the chances for January Effect?
06:16Will it happen?
06:18With the hope that the indicators will improve?
06:21Or will the position be the same as Santa Claus Rally and Window Racing?
06:26It doesn't seem to have a significant impact.
06:30Okay.
06:31Technically speaking,
06:35there is already a pattern that I like the most,
06:40which is bullish divergence,
06:42where there is a gap between the oscillator and the price action,
06:50where the price drops but the oscillator moves up.
06:55So it opens up a gap that indicates that
07:00there may be a technical rebound that could make the IHSG technical rebound.
07:09But what I see is that this event is similar to what happened in 2021,
07:18where all the big banks and big caps were in deep correction,
07:23and after that the rebound was fast.
07:25Okay.
07:26Will this also help in the release of the fourth quarter?
07:33With the Q4,
07:36I think it will definitely be helped by the report later.
07:44I think Indonesia's economic situation is getting worse,
07:55but I don't think it's that significant.
08:01Okay.
08:02From the projection of the IHSG movement,
08:04we move on to the sectoral movement rotation,
08:07especially the movement of some big cap stocks
08:09that today become a burden for the IHSG.
08:11Let's go straight to the big cap banks.
08:13There is BBRI, Mr. Hendy,
08:15where today BBRI is a burden,
08:18experiencing a correction of more than 2%.
08:21Last year, BBRI has weakened by more than 28%, Mr. Hendy.
08:25Compared to some other big cap banks,
08:27it seems that the deepest correction has occurred for BBRI.
08:30Your analysis.
08:31For BBRI, I think this is a chance,
08:36an opportunity for friends who want to invest in BBRI stocks,
08:42where in terms of data,
08:44BBRI according to the 5-year standard deviation PBV,
08:49it is already close to 1.92,
08:56where PBV is minus 2.
08:58That is, PBV can be said to be quite cheap for big banks.
09:06Like that.
09:07Therefore, for now, in my opinion,
09:10for BBRI, it is an opportunity for us to buy.
09:17Why?
09:18Because it has been corrected by 28%,
09:22where we know this is only temporary.
09:27Not because of bad corporate actions
09:32or bad corporate performance.
09:35Like that.
09:36Okay, it looks like BBRI will also be included in one of your choices later.
09:40We will pause for a while.
09:41Later we will try to review in more detail,
09:44especially from a technical point of view for BBRI.
09:47Mr. Hendy, we will pause for a while in conversation with us.
09:50Wait for the recommended choices.
09:53We will be back in a moment.