Klaus Welle discusses the future of Europe, tackling issues like the EU dynamics, Ukraine war, US-EU relations, migration, social justice, and misinformation.
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00:00Germany is set to go to the polls in February, but meanwhile the fate of Ukraine hangs in
00:12the balance as the Trump administration is due to unveil its Ukraine policy. For the
00:17Europe Conversation, I catch up with Klaus Welle, former Secretary General of the European
00:21Parliament and now Chair of the Martin Center Academic Council. I caught up with them at
00:26the Martin Center Forum for European Ideas 2024 and I started by asking him about leadership
00:33in Europe.
00:34You're welcome, Klaus, and thanks very much for joining us here. There's so much to talk
00:40about, but I might just ask you a little bit, first of all, about the country you know best
00:43and Germany and the German politics at the moment. And I suppose your own assessment
00:48about how things are vis-Ă -vis the situation in Ukraine.
00:52I mean, there are many people who are saying that because of the collapse of the government
00:56now German leadership is missing. But the truth is that German leadership was already
01:02missing during the last three years. We, you know, a new word has been coined which is
01:11called the German vote, which means abstention. And the German ambassador to the European
01:17Union had to write a kind of open letter back to Berlin saying, putting me in an impossible
01:23situation because I have no position to defend.
01:27Do you believe then with a new government in place the situation will change dramatically
01:31regarding the support for Ukraine, military support for Ukraine, specifically terrorist
01:36missiles and the use of them in Russian territory?
01:40The leader of the German opposition of the CDU-CSU, Friedrich Merz, has said he would
01:46allow Taurus missiles to be delivered. Of course, it will not be a one-party government,
01:51it will be probably a two-party government, CDU-CSU plus Social Democrats or plus the
01:57Greens. And I believe if it were to be in alliance with the Greens, Germany would more
02:04strongly engage, including Taurus missiles. The Social Democrats have a problem because
02:10their parliamentary group leader is also the leader, you could say, of the pacifist
02:15faction. And therefore Olaf Scholz always had to do a balancing act with the left wing
02:20of his party.
02:22Chancellor Merkel in her autobiography has defended her position as Chancellor in relation
02:27to accessing cheap energy from Russia, gas and oil and so on. What's your own feeling
02:36around this? Because that's something that Germany's been heavily criticised for because
02:41despite all the clear warning signs around Crimea, Georgia and interference in European
02:46and American elections.
02:48I do not agree that Angela Merkel is singled out on this issue because if you have a closer
02:53look, Poland was completely dependent on Russian gas, Czech Republic was completely dependent,
03:01Slovakia was completely dependent, Hungary was completely dependent. Austria is still
03:06completely dependent, more or less, and Germany was. It didn't start with Merkel, it started
03:13before. It didn't end with Merkel, it just ended because of the Ukraine war. So I think
03:21to see the personal responsibility of Angela Merkel would not be correct.
03:28Because the Baltic countries would say that they sounded clear warnings to Germany, to
03:33the European Union over the past decade about a co-dependent or an interdependent relationship
03:39with Russia vis-a-vis energy. Would you then argue that that wasn't the case?
03:43I think they were very clear and I think we should have listened more. And the Baltic
03:48countries have the advantage that they had to live in the Soviet Union. And when I say
03:54live in the Soviet Union, this is too nice a word. Many of them were deported to Siberia.
04:01We had an EPP Group Vice President who was born in the Gulag. This was an attempt for
04:08genocide, you could say, for national extinction. And still they survived and they imposed themselves
04:15and they became very important members of the European Union.
04:19How do you assess the situation we're in now in relation to Russia when you're talking
04:23about an escalation, at least 10,000 North Korean troops, Iranian support, Chinese support
04:31for Russia? And not, I mean, huge criticism around the European Union, but what the future
04:38holds with regard to joint procurement and supporting each other around defence?
04:43I think that the defence needs are so urgent, especially if Russia should continue to produce
04:50at the scale they are currently producing. And to be honest, you're Irish. I think the
04:57times when Ireland could just relax and say, look, we don't have to participate in these
05:03defence activities because we are very well protected, very well covered. The Irish economy
05:09defence depends on undersea cables with the United States. And we've now seen several
05:15attempts, the last one between Germany and Finland, to destroy this infrastructure. So I think
05:21it's also time that Ireland deeply reflects how it can defend its vital economic, political
05:28and military interests.
05:29Are you confident that we are going to be unified in this confrontation with Russia for the next
05:35few years? When you look at the hostility when it comes to, let's say, NATO membership for
05:40Ukraine or even Ukrainian membership of the European Union from countries like Hungary,
05:45Slovakia, when you have unanimous at the table, the voting table. I mean, this is going to be
05:50problematic over the next while.
05:52The support in the European Union is holding. Of course, we might see an acceleration of
05:58events which is testing our resolve again. In case Donald Trump should be successful with his
06:05push for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a ceasefire, in case they should do that, the next day,
06:15the question will be on the table, who is guaranteeing the sovereignty of the free part of
06:22Ukraine, which is still about 80 percent? And I think that question will be directed rather to the
06:28Europeans than to the Americans.
06:30How do you see, from a logical point of view, what is workable in terms of not Ukraine giving up
06:38territory per se, but having areas temporarily occupied? That could mean an end to the war, that
06:44Ukraine could move towards NATO membership. What would you say is a sort of a logical outcome?
06:51It appears to me that the most likely scenario is that a kind of ceasefire will be agreed. Ukraine
06:59will not agree to cede territory, but it will have to accept that for a time which is unknown, this
07:07territory is under foreign control, under Russian control. And that, to a certain extent, is similar
07:13to the situation of West Germany and East Germany. So West Germany was free, West Germany was
07:20democratic, but the East was occupied by the Soviet Union. But we never gave up the hope, the vision,
07:28the desire to see the country reunified. We had to wait 40 years, until 1989, and finally it happened
07:37when the right moment was there. But this meant that West Germany was safe. We had American troops, we
07:46had British troops, we had French troops. So I think what Ukraine can legitimately demand is that it will
07:53also be safe. And I personally do not believe that it can be safe without the support also of foreign troops
08:02in its own territory. And I believe that's most likely going to be European troops.
08:08America would say, yes, not American troops, it would just be very specifically European troops that would
08:14guard territory within Ukraine that would be covered by a NATO security guarantee, is that what you're saying?
08:21I believe the Americans are focusing more and more on China. And I believe also they expect, with some
08:29justification, that Europeans take more responsibility for the security on their own continent. And I think
08:36that's what we have to do. And the way to do that in an efficient way is to strengthen cooperation in the
08:43European Union and between the European Union and NATO. And there cannot be a successful economic development
08:52in the free part of Ukraine without proper security. And those securities cannot be the guarantees of the
09:01Budapest Memorandum. We all know the value of that, which was, let's say, very close to zero. So an end of
09:09hostilities will need a real engagement for the security of the free part of Ukraine. It will need helping them
09:18on their way, on their path to the European Union, because otherwise also there will be no foreign investment
09:25in Ukraine, which is desperately needed. The Russian people are proud people. They will not be happy over the
09:33long time to become a raw material colony of China. And that's what they're about to become. China has not yet
09:43finalized the agreement on the delivery of gas from northern Siberia to China, because they want the prices to go
09:50further down. Prices to go further down might mean that Russia has to sell below the cost of production. That's what's
09:59called a colonial exploitation. So can Russia, which is a proud country, can they accept to become a raw material
10:08colony of China? I don't think so. So I believe it's in Russia's self-interest to not just have one client and one
10:18customer for the raw material or for their gas, but to become a more respected part of the global order and global
10:28economy again.
10:30But what would be the off-ramp for Vladimir Putin to agree to that? Because this sounds like a victory for Ukraine,
10:37somewhat of a victory for Ukraine. You're not giving up permanently or formally territory with a view to taking it back
10:45within a certain amount of time. Greater Russia hasn't been recreated. Putin has failed. NATO has expanded. Why would
10:55he agree to this, notwithstanding all the important points he made about Russian influence in Syria and Africa being
11:02under threat?
11:03I mean, Russia, when they started the war, were hoping for a very quick victory. A week, four weeks, that is clearly not the
11:10case. They probably have lost by now 200,000 Russian people, which is a lot. Russia already has a demographic problem,
11:18which is major. So they also have limitations, which is, by the way, why they're bringing in North Koreans to die for them, or
11:26why they've been using very much national minorities to die for them. So Russia will want to negotiate at least a partial
11:34lifting of the sanctions. That might be on the plus side. But I think they will also be confronted by a tough position of the
11:43United States.
11:44Okay, well, Klaus Feller, Chairman of the Academic Council of the Martin Center, thank you very much for joining us at the Europe
11:49Conversation. Really appreciate it. That was fascinating. Thank you.