Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Let's bring in Aaron Y. Zellin. He's an expert on jihadist groups at the Washington Institute
00:05for Near East Policy. Thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening. Firstly,
00:11officials said they were seeking initially additional potential suspects in this attack.
00:17That's what we were being told 24 hours ago. Why do they now believe this man was working alone?
00:23And why did they initially say the opposite? Thanks for having me. I think part of it is
00:30based off of surveillance footage. It looked as if maybe people placed bombs on the streets as
00:35well. But it's plausible that people were just leaving their bags there to flee the scene so
00:41that they wouldn't get hurt during the attack itself. And that's why it's always important to
00:45be cautious of any reports within 24 hours of an attack to wait and see how the investigations
00:51usually go. And there are more than 1000 law enforcement officers currently working on this
00:58case. How exactly will they determine whether this man had specific associations with any
01:04terrorist organisation, including ISIS, the Islamic State? The main way they'll do this is
01:11likely looking through his phone as well as his computers to see whether he was in contact over,
01:17you know, encrypted applications or other ways with individuals abroad, potentially. That's how
01:23we've seen it done in the past, where somebody from, say, Syria or Afghanistan or elsewhere
01:28tries to provide guidance and information. And also, one of the indicators too will be
01:34is if we actually see the Islamic State claim responsibility. In the past, we've seen the
01:39Islamic State sharing photographs or videos of people that have conducted attacks before they
01:45did the act, pledging allegiance to the Islamic State leader. And so if that does happen, that
01:51will be definitive proof that he was in contact with their media outlets to be able to produce
01:56this type of information. And Aaron, you point out that the use of a car to target pedestrians,
02:01it is a typical Islamic State tactic and it has previously been used by the jihadist group.
02:08Yeah, you know, in the US context, we saw something in the West Side Highway in New
02:12York City back in 2017. But maybe more memorable for some people are the attacks in East France,
02:18as well as in Germany almost a decade ago now during Christmas time, where these types of
02:25similar attacks have unfortunately happened as well. And what state is the Islamic State
02:30militant group currently in? This attack, whether it was directly linked or inspired by the group,
02:37it's a stark reminder, isn't it, of the persistent threat that it and other jihadist groups continue
02:42to pose. Depending on the particular country you're talking about, the state of the organisation
02:49varies from increasing in strength in places like West Africa or in Southern Africa to
02:56being weakened in places like Iraq and Syria and Afghanistan, for example. But when we're looking
03:02at it sort of as a global network, when they're doing these external attacks outside of war zones,
03:07we've seen an increased tempo of not only plots but successful attacks over the last 18 to 24
03:13months or so. If you'll recall, just last year, we saw those large scale ones in Iran and Russia,
03:18for example. And we've been speaking about ISIS specifically in the context of Syria, Aaron,
03:24in the last few weeks. Many ISIS jihadists are being held in camps and detention camps
03:29centres there, but their fate is looking increasingly uncertain, isn't it?
03:34Yeah. I mean, the US and the Global Coalition continues to operate against Islamic State cells.
03:39We've seen the US conduct four airstrikes against the Islamic State since the takeover by the new
03:45government from the fall of the previous regime in Syria. But the detention camps, as well as the
03:50IDP camps, continue to be having at least 9,000 men, 40,000 women and children at least, which
03:59has not been resolved yet. Many countries have not repatriated their own citizens.
04:04And there's also many from Iraq and Syria that remained as well in these camps and detention
04:09centres. So while we haven't seen the Islamic State be able to take advantage of this new
04:14environment within Syria thus far, it still remains a worry just because of the possibility
04:21that they might try and break people out. And observers, they've also pointed to concerns as
04:25well, Aaron, that recent events in Syria might actually be inspiring sympathisers to carry out
04:32new attacks elsewhere. Would that be something that you would agree with?
04:37It's difficult to say because the government that took over Syria despises the Islamic State. So I
04:43don't think people would be inspired by what happened in the fall of the regime to do something
04:47on behalf of the Islamic State because the group that took over the country, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,
04:52is against the attacks outside of the Syrian context and the regime itself or the former
04:57regime. But of course, every single day, the Islamic State is putting out messages,
05:03trying to get people to do attacks on its behalf. So in some ways, sometimes it's all about a matter
05:08of whether one of these things sticks with one individual. And unfortunately, in this case,
05:12in relation to the attack in New Orleans, it happened and they were successful in it.
05:17And Aaron, you've pointed out that ISIS continually issues online propaganda,
05:22providing guidance to its followers. Are these people who commit acts of terror usually
05:27self-radicalised by the militant group, by its ideology, or are they directly
05:32enabled by the group itself or other people who are radicalised?
05:37We see cases of both. You know, those who focused on this talk about inspired attacks
05:42where the individual is just essentially reading, watching the propaganda from the Islamic State
05:47and deciding to do something because the Islamic State calls for it. But then we also see in other
05:51avenues, guided attacks, where there is a connection between the individual and the
05:57group itself where they're talking to each other over encrypted applications online.
06:01And the Islamic State is providing distinct, specific guidance and help and pushing them to
06:07do it and sometimes even providing funding for it as well. And that's one of the biggest questions
06:11we have going forward now, related to this attack, is whether it's only inspired or if
06:16there's a component where it might have been guided specifically by operatives of the Islamic State,
06:21which we just don't know yet.
06:22Many questions, as you say, Aaron, remain unanswered at this point, very early in the investigation.
06:28Thank you so much for your time on the programme. That is Aaron
06:31Weisselen, an expert on jihadist groups at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.