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00:00This will not, not be the last Greg Cosell conversation of the year.
00:05All right.
00:06We're talking playoffs.
00:07Playoffs?
00:07Playoffs, exactly.
00:09But not yet.
00:10Joining us right now, as he does on Wednesdays, River Island's guest line,
00:16none other than the executive producer at NFL Films.
00:19He knows the X's, the O's, the all 22's better than anyone.
00:23He is Greg Cosell.
00:24Happy New Year to our friend.
00:26Happy New Year, guys.
00:27Good to be with you.
00:28Glad you're back.
00:29I wish I got some time off, but that doesn't happen.
00:32You know, I think that you probably could take it.
00:34You just don't.
00:35You're like one of these Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall guys.
00:39Like, you just, you love to work.
00:43Well, I do.
00:44And I always feel like there's more to see and more to do.
00:46So yeah, I can't really take time off.
00:49It doesn't work with my whole, like, sense of the world.
00:52So between the Super Bowl and the NFL draft, you're just grinding on college tape?
00:57Or are you doing that already year-round anyway?
00:59No, no, I can't do it during the NFL season.
01:01I can start doing it probably next week,
01:05because then I have fewer games I have to watch for the NFL.
01:08So once the matchup show is kind of my pieces, my film segments are done,
01:12and it's all mapped out, then I can start watching college tape.
01:15So I'll probably start next week.
01:17Because, of course, everybody's going to ask me about the quarterbacks.
01:20I'll start, you know, I won't watch 15 quarterbacks, you know,
01:23but I'll watch a couple of the main guys.
01:26I'll do Ward, I'll do Sanders, you know.
01:27I'll do those guys relatively early on.
01:29Yeah, but probably not us, because the Niners have theirs, at least so they say.
01:34They have no hesitation moving forward with Brock Purdy.
01:38They want to do an extension early.
01:41So let's ask you this, because obviously, Greg,
01:43this was not as good of a year as the last two.
01:46What is your full-season takeaway of Brock Purdy?
01:51Well, I would say that Purdy overall did not necessarily play as well this year
01:55as he did a year ago, and I think we discussed that through the season.
01:59I'm sure there are reasons for that.
02:02I thought at times he was a little quick to break down and leave the pocket.
02:06A lot of people talked about how mobile he is,
02:09and that's fine when it's necessary and needed.
02:12But if it's not necessary and needed, then you want to see him work through the offense.
02:17I don't know what's in his head, so there's parts that I can't answer.
02:20You know, it's funny.
02:22So many teams, when the quarterback doesn't play as well as people expect
02:25and the year is disappointing, they automatically assume that,
02:29well, it's time to get a new quarterback.
02:33We can't give this guy money.
02:34First of all, you've got to separate the money,
02:36because the money is just what it is.
02:38That's just the reality of life.
02:40But I think some people think there must be a quarterback school
02:44that you just go to and get any quarterback that you want.
02:47Quarterbacks don't just fall out of the sky.
02:50Brock Purdy has proven to be a quality NFL quarterback.
02:54It was only a year ago that this team was in the Super Bowl,
02:57and you're not going to start over at the quarterback position.
03:01Because if you decide that you didn't want to sign him,
03:04let me ask you guys this, then what's the next move?
03:07The next move would be get a middling free agent who's not as good,
03:10or hope that you get somebody in the draft,
03:13and you probably won't when you're picking in the high teens.
03:17And it's also not a great quarterback draft
03:19based on some work that I did last summer of watching a ton of quarterbacks.
03:24Obviously, I haven't done the work from the 2024 season.
03:26But I think from people I've spoken to,
03:29this is not viewed as a great quarterback draft.
03:31So it's easy to say,
03:33oh, we don't want to pay Brock Purdy, whatever that number is.
03:36And the number is just the number,
03:37because that's the market value of quarterbacks.
03:40So he's going to get close to or whatever the number is.
03:45So that has to be separated from the reality of having a quarterback.
03:48Because you're right.
03:49Because otherwise, here's what happens.
03:51And fans, maybe they think about this, maybe they don't.
03:54If you decide, well, Brock Purdy's not my quarterback,
03:58then here's what ends up happening.
03:59You sign guys like Mason Rudolph to a one-year deal,
04:02and he becomes your quarterback.
04:04Exactly right.
04:05And you're right, I think we all agree,
04:09there isn't another great option.
04:11But just because we hear this a lot from fans,
04:14and I think part of it is because he was in the building last year,
04:16and then went 14-3 this year.
04:19Like, what did you see with Sam Darnold this year
04:22that was maybe different from years past?
04:27I think Darnold was clearly better than he's ever been.
04:30And I think that there were a couple of areas in which he clearly improved.
04:36He was far more decisive in the pocket.
04:38I think some of that is a function of how comfortable
04:42he clearly felt in that past offense.
04:45We don't know.
04:45He may have been that way if he had played last year in Kyle's offense.
04:48We don't know the answer to that because he didn't play.
04:52I thought he was much better in terms of being confident,
04:55staying in the pocket, and making late in the down throws
04:59when there were people around him.
05:01Because even though he's mobile and a plus athlete,
05:03he's essentially a pocket quarterback.
05:05And he was very comfortable because there were a lot more intermediate
05:09and intermediate to vertical routes in the Vikings offense
05:13than there were in the 49ers offense.
05:16And he was very comfortable sitting there and waiting to make throws.
05:20So he's had a very good season.
05:22He's got a lot of talent.
05:23I mean, he's a big kid, good athlete, really good arm.
05:27And it all came together this year in Minnesota.
05:29So it's easy to say, well, gee, we should have kept Sam Darnold.
05:33But that stuff's easy to say.
05:35I mean, unless I have a bad memory,
05:40I think the 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year with Brock Purdy, were they not?
05:43Yeah, your memory's still pretty solid, Greg, even at our advanced age.
05:48My advanced age is probably more than your advanced age.
05:51A little bit more advanced, yes.
05:52I'm going to give you that one.
05:53And we don't have to go to the film for that breakdown.
05:55It's just facts are facts.
05:57I do want to ask you, though, about what you saw on the tape
06:00that led to the passing offense in totality being less effective this year.
06:05What did you see through all 17 games from the passing offense?
06:12The passing offense was a really difficult thing to evaluate,
06:15because if you kind of look at the overall season,
06:19Purdy still had a high yards per attempt.
06:21There were still downfield throws.
06:24It wasn't as if the passing offense didn't work at all.
06:27So it was kind of an odd year.
06:30You could almost argue that the run game was more of an issue.
06:34Now, I know early in the season, Mason got off to a good start,
06:37and that's when the Niners were obviously playing well.
06:39That's when they, I mean, at one point, were they 4-3 at one point?
06:43I'm trying to remember the season.
06:45Ah, I think they got to 4-4, and then they went 5-5,
06:49but I don't think they were 4-3.
06:51My memory serves they were 3-4, but anyway.
06:53Six games, so they only won two of their last whatever it was.
06:56Yep.
06:57So, early in the season, even though it wasn't McCaffrey,
07:00Mason ran well.
07:01Their offense was what it's designed to be,
07:04which is based more on balance,
07:06and the run game is a starting point,
07:07because they play a ton out of 21 personnel.
07:10That's their foundation,
07:11and the pass game kind of works off that with a lot of things they do,
07:15because don't forget, their run game dictates how defenses line up.
07:19Then McCaffrey came back, and obviously, he didn't gain a lot of yards,
07:23and that's a debatable point about his health,
07:26but the point is the run game sort of stopped working at that point,
07:29and it didn't really work that well for the rest of the season.
07:32So, the offense didn't really have the multi-dimensional element
07:37that they certainly had a year ago,
07:39when many would have argued that McCaffrey should have been the league MVP.
07:42So, you know, I think it's more of a totality.
07:46Look, Purdy is not Josh Allen.
07:49He's not Patrick Mahomes.
07:50He's not Joe Burrow.
07:51He's not Lamar.
07:52No one would argue that.
07:54He's a...
07:55When all is going well, Purdy is a high-level executor and ball distributor.
08:00That's what Brock Purdy is,
08:02and if people think he's more than that,
08:04and by the way, there's nothing wrong with that.
08:06It's good, but if people think he's more, he's not that.
08:10That's what he is.
08:11So, when things don't work, when they lose a Brandon Aiyuk,
08:15and they don't have the same receiving core that they anticipated,
08:19then things don't work quite as well.
08:22Don't forget, Jawan Jennings is a nice player,
08:24and I actually loved him coming out of college
08:27because of his toughness and competitiveness,
08:29but when all's said and done,
08:31in an ideal world, Jawan Jennings is a No. 3.
08:34So, when he becomes sort of the main guy,
08:37and for whatever reason,
08:39then your offense is not going to have a great passing game.
08:44And you look at the X going forward,
08:45the X wide receiver,
08:46who's usually your No. 1 wide receiver,
08:49Aiyuk likely out till October.
08:50Can Ricky Pearsall step in and be that guy,
08:53or do they have to go hunting for a real No. 1 receiver?
08:56That's a great question.
08:57He's the best option of the receivers that are there,
09:00because as we've discussed with Samuel many times,
09:02good player, but he's somewhat of a scheme player.
09:05You know, we discussed that he's not Jefferson Chase, AJ Brown.
09:10He's not that guy.
09:11So, in an ideal world, could it be Pearsall?
09:16Ideally, he gets through a whole offseason now.
09:19You saw what he could do a little bit as the year progressed.
09:22He's got some juice to him.
09:24We'll see.
09:25I don't know the answer to that.
09:27They may feel they know the answer to that.
09:29But, you know, in this league,
09:30and I've had this conversation with wide receiver coaches at the Combine,
09:34and I end up having this conversation almost every year,
09:37and they all talk about the fact that
09:39if you don't have a quality X receiver in this league,
09:43who you can line up as your boundary single receiver to win 1-0-1,
09:47because you usually get a lot of man coverage with that boundary X
09:51that your offense can become bogged down.
09:53So, that receiver becomes important.
09:55So, I don't think we know yet about Pearsall as that guy.
09:59As much as I like him, I don't know if he is that guy.
10:02I would love to hear just your take on those last two games,
10:07because you said, you know, we saw a little bit about what he could do,
10:11and I'll let you know,
10:12people out here are suddenly very, very excited
10:15based on those last couple of games.
10:17What's your sort of more intricate take on what we saw from him?
10:21I didn't, as you guys know, I didn't feel like I needed the last two games
10:25to know what I think Ricky Pearsall is.
10:28I think Ricky Pearsall is a really smooth, fluid athlete.
10:33I think he has a good feel for route running.
10:35I think he's got some run after catch ability.
10:38I just don't know yet,
10:40based on his NFL sample size, which is not large,
10:44obviously, if he can line up as a true X.
10:47But, I think Ricky Pearsall is a really, really,
10:51is going to be a really good receiver.
10:53It just depends on what kind of really good he is.
10:56I'll give you an example.
10:57I think we'd all agree that Amon Ross St. Brown is a really good receiver, correct?
11:01Yep, yep.
11:02But he's not Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase.
11:04But he's a really good NFL receiver.
11:06I don't know if Ricky Pearsall would ever get to, you know,
11:09the Jefferson, Chase, A.J. Brown level of receiver,
11:13or Devontae Adams in his prime.
11:15But he could still end up being a really, really good receiver.
11:18Just like Amon Ross St. Brown is not a true boundary X,
11:21but he's a really good receiver.
11:24And you look at so many teams now that throw the ball with three wides,
11:27you can kind of get away with a guy who can be productive out of the slot.
11:31I want to ask you about the defense,
11:32because the defensive coordinator hasn't been fired,
11:35but he's been removed from his post.
11:37You know, you watch the film all year, Greg, and you see this wide nine defense.
11:41And I wonder, when you look at the film,
11:44what was missing from this defense that made it so
11:47they were a little bit susceptible to the run?
11:49Well, and I'm very curious to see what they do,
11:52because I think there's a philosophy issue here.
11:56I mean, when I say issue, they may see it as an issue.
11:58They may not see it as an issue.
12:00And obviously, they removed Sorensen,
12:02so they're going to have their fourth key coordinator in four years.
12:05This was a team, and it's funny because this week,
12:08they did blitz quite a bit early on in the game.
12:11But this is a defense that was a very low blitz percentage defense.
12:15They did not play a ton of man to man.
12:17So they relied on their front four to pressure the quarterback.
12:22So the question is, philosophically, is Kyle looking for a change?
12:26Is Kyle looking to bring someone in
12:28who's going to be more aggressive with pressure schemes?
12:31We don't know the answer to that right now.
12:33But I'm curious to see because, you know, as I said,
12:36this becomes a philosophy issue.
12:38You know, how do you feel?
12:39How do you want your defense to look in today's NFL?
12:42Do you feel like you have to get after the quarterback?
12:44And when I say blitz, I don't mean that you're blitzing 50, 60, 70 percent of the time.
12:48But the 49ers were a very, very low percentage blitz defense by NFL standards.
12:53And it's funny, I put the tape on from this week,
12:56you know, just because I wanted to get a feel for who they played
12:58and what guys looked like.
12:59And all of a sudden, I'm seeing on two of the first three third downs,
13:02they rushed five.
13:04Warner, who in the past was used as a blitzer at times,
13:07you know, he's being used as the fifth rusher
13:09with multiple stunt concepts and, you know, different kinds of pressures.
13:14So, you know, it'll be interesting to see
13:18what direction they go as a, you know, with a D coordinator.
13:21Greg Cosell, NFL Films, with us every week on Weatherden Tibbs, 95-7 the game.
13:26Greg, I'm sure you get this,
13:28especially now that he's the highest paid defensive player in the game.
13:31Fans want more sacks.
13:33And since he signed that deal,
13:35Nick Bosa's sack totals haven't been where you would love them to be.
13:38There's a lot of context to that.
13:40But fans are, I don't want to say down on him,
13:43but a little, like there's a mild disappointment there.
13:47I wonder what you can tell our listeners
13:49about the way he's actually performed the last couple seasons.
13:54I don't think that's fair because I can't tell you how many times
13:56I've watched the Niners defense this year
13:58and I've called in my guys, you know, on the matchup show
14:01because, you know, we have our little area with the matchup show.
14:04We've got a bunch of guys that work with me on the show
14:07and I'll call them in and say, man, look at Bosa.
14:09He's just dominating.
14:10And, you know, he may not get a sack
14:12because there's many reasons you don't get sacks.
14:15But I don't think there's a problem with Nick Bosa.
14:18You know, keep one thing in mind.
14:20I don't know how many times he's rushed the quarterback this year,
14:24the number of times that he's been a pass rusher.
14:26You know, maybe it's 350 times, I don't know.
14:30But let's say that's the number.
14:33If a guy gets 12 sacks out of 350 pass rushes,
14:38they say he has a great year, right?
14:40But if he gets nine sacks, they say, man, he's not getting enough sacks.
14:45Is that really the way we want to judge a pass rusher?
14:48Think about it.
14:49Is that really the way we want to judge a pass rusher?
14:52No, I would say no.
14:54Right, right.
14:54Yeah.
14:55So I think when you kind of think about it, that's why, and again,
14:58I'm fortunate in my job that I can sit and watch every play, okay?
15:02And when I start watching college guys, that's what I do with defensive guys.
15:05I can't tell you how many times, for instance,
15:07I'll watch a defensive tackle in college,
15:10and if you look at the stat sheet, I see he has one tackle,
15:12and then I watch all 70 plays in the game,
15:15of which the guy played 50, and I come away going,
15:17man, that guy dominated the game.
15:19You know, so you have to be careful about that.
15:21You've got to look at every play and see how he's playing,
15:24not just the pure number of sacks, which, you know.
15:27So I thought Nick Bosa, I didn't think there was a problem with Nick Bosa.
15:31And I think that kind of applies to what I'm thinking about Fred Warner,
15:34because early in the year, his numbers forced fumbles,
15:37and he had a couple of interceptions.
15:38People were talking about defensive player of the year,
15:40and the numbers kind of fell off.
15:42When you watch Fred Warner on tape all year,
15:45what did you see from a guy who might be heading to Canton eventually?
15:49I think he should be, you know, up to this point in his career,
15:52I think pretty much everybody would say that he's the best stackbacker in the game.
15:58You know, and again, did he play with an injury
16:02through the last part of this season?
16:03Oh, yes.
16:04Most of the year, yeah.
16:04Broken bone in his ankle, yeah.
16:08Yeah, because I thought there were some stretches this year where,
16:11you know, to me, he wasn't quite as impactful on tape.
16:14But then there were other times I was like,
16:15man, that Fred Warner is just unbelievable.
16:17So, you know, again, you can get caught up in, you know,
16:20that kind of conversation.
16:21But, you know, Fred Warner is just a great football player.
16:24And, you know, from what I read, I'm not in their building,
16:26obviously, nor am I out with you guys.
16:28But I mean, from what I understand, he's a great leader.
16:31He's kind of the driving force of the defense.
16:33So, I mean, obviously, Fred Warner is not going anywhere.
16:36So we'll see what happens.
16:38I know Greenlaw, this was a lost year for Greenlaw.
16:41And I think he's a really important player.
16:42I thought Winters acquitted himself pretty well.
16:44He played a lot of snaps over the last, what, month or so, give or take.
16:48I thought he acquitted himself pretty well.
16:51Greg, I'd love, and maybe this is too broad of a question,
16:54but I'm going to take my shot here, going into the playoffs,
16:57and ask you, with all of these teams coming up this weekend,
17:02you know, some of them, obviously, there's a couple of first-round buys.
17:05But, like, of all these teams playing this weekend in the playoffs,
17:09give us a couple teams who you feel are kind of peaking.
17:12Like, who's playing really well right now?
17:16I tell you, a team that really interests me, and I'm very curious,
17:21and I know probably most observers think it's, you know, a no-brainer
17:25that the other team's going to win big.
17:27But the Broncos fascinate me right now.
17:30Yep, yep, yep, yep.
17:32Bo Nix has played really, really well.
17:35We know Sean Payton is a very good coach.
17:37And because of Bo Nix, their defense has not gotten, to me,
17:41the conversation that it deserves.
17:43They lead the NFL in sacks.
17:45They've got arguably the best corner in the game.
17:48Their defense is really good.
17:50It's fast.
17:51It's young.
17:52It's got Zach Allen at de-tackle, who no one talks about,
17:56as good a de-tackle as there is in the game.
17:58He never comes off the field.
18:01The Broncos are a fascinating team to me.
18:03And the Bills' defense is not quite at the level,
18:06to me, it's not a championship-level style defense.
18:10So that game fascinates me.
18:13And when you look at that matchup with the Denver defense,
18:16and I think you're right in terms of how underrated they are,
18:18can they keep up with the Josh Allen two-way threat,
18:22and what can be an explosive offense with Buffalo playing at home?
18:26Yeah, and that's the issue.
18:27Because I think Buffalo at its core is an offensive team.
18:30I think they were second in the league in points.
18:32Allen is obviously a great individual player.
18:35I mean, what he's done without a 1,000-yard rusher
18:38and 1,000-yard receiver is really impressive.
18:40We know he's just a physical specimen.
18:42He's the most purely physically gifted quarterback in the league
18:47and can do special things at any moment.
18:49But every once in a while, they get kind of a lull in their offense.
18:53And, you know, I'm just...
18:55Again, if you're a Bills fan, not that you guys are,
18:57but I'm just saying if you're a Bills fan,
18:59there's a little part of me that worries about this game.
19:02Like, you know, again, could Allen be phenomenal?
19:04And could they win 30-13?
19:05Sure.
19:06I'm a very bad prognosticator, by the way.
19:08I can't pick these games.
19:09Because I could give you 10 variables on both sides.
19:11Right, right.
19:12We're all placing bets based on every word right now.
19:16Right, right, right.
19:17Right, so I'm a really bad prognosticator.
19:20But the point is, you know, this game, I think, you know,
19:24could be a little concerning.
19:26You know who fascinates me every January is the Baltimore Ravens.
19:31Because it feels like they should have probably had a longer resume
19:36in the Lamar Jackson era in January.
19:39But did they sort of, like, fix something on defense
19:42that was ailing them early in the year?
19:45They made a major change starting week 11 with Kyle Hamilton,
19:48who would basically had been kind of a multi-dimensional movement
19:51chess piece in their defense, playing a lot of different positions.
19:55They basically moved him to back-end safety starting week 11.
19:58And since they did that, if I'm not mistaken,
20:00they're the number one red zone, not red zone,
20:03number one third down defense in the league.
20:06Their sack totals have gone way up with only a four-man pass rush.
20:10Everything seemed to change when they moved Kyle Hamilton
20:13basically to back-end safety instead of kind of a movable chess piece.
20:17So that's when their defense changed.
20:20It's really funny because their offensive coordinator, Todd Monken,
20:22you know, who obviously played, was in college,
20:24and he's been there a couple years.
20:26He's talked about the fact that the key to their whole offense is Derrick Henry.
20:29You know, who lost in the in the Saquon Barkley season,
20:32and deservedly so, Barkley's had a ridiculous season,
20:35is the fact that Derrick Henry rushed for over 1,900 yards.
20:38You know, that doesn't get talked about a lot
20:40because Lamar's numbers have been so off the charts.
20:42And he's had such a special season as well.
20:45But they're really, you know, so many of these teams, it's an odd thing.
20:49So many of these teams are kind of run-first teams now.
20:52You know, everybody talks about the quarterback, the quarterback, the quarterback.
20:55And I'm not saying he's not important, believe me.
20:57But so many of these teams start their offense with a run game.
21:01Hey, Greg, wonderful stuff again.
21:03We thank you throughout the season.
21:05But as I mentioned off the top, we're not done yet.
21:07So we'll talk to you next week, okay, friend?
21:10I gotta be with you guys again next week?
21:12That's the word.
21:13I just read the contract.
21:15You're in.
21:15Yeah.
21:16You know I'm joking, guys.
21:17Come on, I love talking to you guys.
21:19That's awesome, Greg.
21:20We'll talk to you next week, Greg.
21:21All right.
21:21Appreciate it, guys.
21:22Thanks.
21:22There it is.
21:23Greg Cosell.
21:23And yes, put it all on the Broncos plus nine and a half.
21:27That's what I heard.
21:28Nine and a half.
21:29I'm saying eight and a half here on ESPN.
21:32It's, yeah, where I do business.
21:35Forecast at one in the afternoon.
21:38It's a one o'clock local time.
21:40Yes.
21:4029 degrees is your local forecast.
21:42That's okay.
21:43As long as it's clear.
21:43But that's the heat of the day.
21:44Yeah, but that's the, it's the Broncos.
21:46They, it's not like they're not used to cold weather.
21:49Yeah.
21:49They're fine.
21:50There's some interesting picks.
21:51We can get into it as we get deeper into the weekend.
21:53Are you, you're doing the full slate, right?
21:54I'll give you all six.
21:55I'll give you five.
21:56And then on Monday, I'll give you Monday.
21:58Ugh.
21:58Yeah.
21:59Yeah.
22:00And I, I'm actually going to branch out.
22:01Make some money this weekend.
22:02Not going to all be just sides.
22:03There might be a total thrown in there as well.
22:05Oh, that's fancy.
22:06Totals.
22:07That's, oh.
22:07Yeah.
22:08Fancy.
22:08Yep.
22:09All right.
22:10Um, eight at eight.
22:11Thank you very much.
22:13Eight at eight, nine, five, seven, nine, five, 70, one, 800 bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet.