Aparna Rawal, security researcher and analyst, speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on changing Af-Psk dynamics as Afghan Taliban warms up to India | SAM Conversation
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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor. We are going to discuss
00:19the deteriorating situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, even as Afghanistan Taliban
00:30warms up to India. To discuss this, we have Ms. Aparna Rawal, a researcher and specialist
00:42in this subject. Aparna, welcome to South Asia Monitor. Thank you for having me, sir.
00:57Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan was established in 2007 as a coalition of various Sunni Islamist
01:06groups of Pakistan and it launched a lot of attacks on Pakistani forces and even civilians,
01:25killed some leaders and carried on this way till the second takeover of the Taliban
01:35in Afghanistan in 2021. Thereafter, the equation changed that
01:45the relations between Pakistan and the Afghani Taliban, unlike earlier, they deteriorated
01:56and became quite violent. 2024 has been a particularly violent year with the Tehreek-e-Taliban
02:12Pakistan becoming more and more effective and even being joined by the Balochistan groups.
02:25The activist groups in Balochistan, anti-Pakistan. Ms. Rawal, I request you to
02:41bring us an update of what has happened since late, very briefly what has happened in 2024
02:52and then come down to 2025, which again has been quite eventful in this very month.
02:59Yes. For starters, sir, the Taliban was a creation of Pakistan. We all know that.
03:09So, since the Taliban came to power in 2021, Pakistan was hoping for a strategic depth
03:16in Afghanistan and they were hoping that in this way, they could curb groups like TTP,
03:23Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and also the Baloch, Pashtun militant groups, which were also working
03:31in hand with TTP. Because TTP wants a Sharia law, but at the same time, these so-called groups like
03:38TTP, then there are other groups like Gul Bahadur group and all these are like the splinter groups
03:49that have similar ideologies as Taliban. And now most of them are actually looking Taliban with
03:55great admiration because this was an insurgent group. I wouldn't call it terrorist because in
04:00some countries, it's not designated as a terrorist group. And Taliban started from like
04:07an insurgent group, a militant group, and has now transformed into like a de facto government.
04:13So, most of these splinter groups look at Taliban as a sort of a role model to carry this forward.
04:20And they also have pledged their allegiance to Taliban. Taliban has close connections with Al-Qaeda.
04:26Hence, most of these small splinter groups have now connections with Al-Qaeda and bigger groups
04:32like Haqqani and all, because Haqqani and Taliban together have formed the interim government in
04:38Afghanistan. So, since 2024, a lot of things have now emerged, a lot of new things are emerging,
04:45but we can't say that history is not repeating itself. History is again repeating itself.
04:51For starters, whoever Pakistan aligns with, if it is not their way or the highway, it's always
04:58been the case. And most of these groups have always been doomed after Pakistan decides to
05:04cut loose and run if it doesn't get what it wants. For example, when Taliban came into creation,
05:11it was created by the Pakistani ISI with heavy funding. Some funding came from the Saudi,
05:18some came from the Al-Qaeda groups. It trained a bunch of warriors or fighters in Pakistan during
05:25the Soviet era, the Soviet Afghan war. More than 250,000 fighters were created and they were sent
05:36across the border to fight. Some of them were mercenaries from foreign lands. They didn't have
05:41to be just Pakistan or Afghan refugees who had come back to Pakistan. These were people who
05:47were coming from different Islamic countries who were ready to fight in the name of jihad.
05:52They were created. Taliban movement took place. They moved forward. In 1996, they came to power.
05:58That time, they were not able to reach their goals. There was a fall. The Karzai government
06:03came into power. But the fact of the matter is, one thing with every organization or a government
06:11that has ruled in Afghanistan or that has been in power, the one thing that they could never
06:16settle with Pakistan was over the Durand line. The Durand line was one thing that none of the
06:23governments, regardless of who it was, whether it was nourished by Pakistan or other different
06:28superpowers, it didn't matter because at the end of the day, the Afghans view the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
06:36as one big part of the Pashtun land, Pashtunistan as they call it.
06:41And even Taliban has openly, most of the time, said that you cannot separate the families and
06:47the Durand line is nothing but an artificial entity. However, Pakistan inherited the Durand
06:53line after its independence. It has stuck to its stance saying that, no, this is through
07:00international law. Hence, you must respect the Durand line. While nobody from the Afghan side,
07:06regardless of which government was in power, has ever supported that, believing that the
07:11Pashtuns were divided. And with this, what happened was there was a fallout,
07:19even though Pakistan thought it would play the Taliban as a puppet to get its gains,
07:25have a strategic debt and control the TTP. This has failed very miserably because TTP decided
07:32that it was not going to go ahead with the ceasefire, which it had declared in 2021.
07:41By December 2021, everything went downhill. There was a surge of attacks.
07:48It has continued. There's a massive uptick now. Not only has TTP joined hands with
07:55the splinter groups that have pledged allegiance to the Taliban, but also with the new Pashtun and
08:03Baloch militant groups that are coming into picture. Most of them have now joined hands.
08:09There have been coordinated attacks between the groups. And in order to do so,
08:16the Taliban also has not commented much on it. I wouldn't say reluctantly. I would say that they
08:24haven't really said much about curbing these groups. Pakistan was hoping that Taliban would
08:30intervene and curb the groups. They haven't done that, not to mention with the Durand line skirmishes
08:36going on. Pakistan has been saying that the Afghanistan government has been providing safe
08:44havens and shelters for a lot of anti-Pak elements. It could be TTP or a few other groups.
08:51The leaders and the core commanders have safe havens over there. In the meantime, what has
08:56happened is TTP former core commander Ehsanullah Ehsan has suddenly become very vocal. There were
09:04reports that were coming out on social media where this man decides to come out and expose
09:11the Pakistani ISI. He even made a statement saying that the Pakistani ISI, in order to
09:18curb TTP, has decided to join hands with the ISIS Khurasan. And this ISIS Khurasan is now working
09:27under this Davori agreement, while their major core commanders, leaders are now given safe havens
09:35in Pakistan in government guest houses. So Ehsanullah, what he did was he exposed a bunch
09:43of names which were pertaining to the ISKP cadre. Now what has happened, TTP is also making a claim
09:51that under the military fire, ISI hopes to push the ISIS cadre right through the border
10:01into Afghanistan. So that way ISKP can go emerge into Afghanistan and carry out what Pakistan
10:09could not do. Plus it gives Pakistan a reason for deniability. If a terror group takes the fall,
10:16it gives Pakistan a reason for deniability. ISIS Khurasan is actually a rival group of Taliban.
10:29You just mentioned about ISIS Khurasan. Could you elaborate on its full form and
10:38just mention exactly how this came about, this connection?
10:44Yes. The thing with ISIS Khurasan in the area, it's basically now considered as an offshoot
10:55with the parent group being the ISIS, the main ISIS central, which is called Daesh. Initially
11:03when it emerged in Afghanistan, they were a bunch of small groups. Some of them were lone
11:09wolves in a way. They were carrying out their operations. They would go install themselves
11:14in the tribal area. Now in Afghanistan, a lot of warlords and feudal lords still exist, tribes,
11:20so on. So what this cadre started doing was planting itself in the tribal matters, taking
11:27sides, trying to resolve feuds, changing perceptions, because the idea was to have
11:33a monopoly on jihad in Afghanistan, using Afghanistan as a launching board. However,
11:39what happened was, what they didn't anticipate was Taliban coming to power. Taliban came to power,
11:45not only did it come to power, it had access to technology and weapons, which the US had left
11:51behind. So now they had this, plus Taliban started out a witch hunt for anybody who was a
11:57part of the Ghani government. A lot of the intelligence officers, soldiers, even the other
12:03people who were sympathizers, the officials, or anybody who was a sympathizer of the Ghani
12:08government was hunted down and killed. So most of these people from this faction started joining
12:18ISKP, the ISIS Khurasan. And the other thing that happened was, when Taliban came to power,
12:25a lot of its fighters were ordered to go back home, to their land of origin, their homeland.
12:31So some of them didn't have jobs. There was increase in unemployment. So most of the Taliban
12:37fighters also were seen joining ISKP, because now Taliban had left the war theater and now was
12:45trying to behave like a government. So with this what happened was, ISKP started gaining traction.
12:53Now one way of curbing another group was to support the ISKP. So what TTP, former commander,
13:01what he said was, ISI, Pakistani intelligence is known to carry this kind of a strategy.
13:10We have seen this in Kashmir also. Under the fire of the military infiltration,
13:15water infiltrations, what they do is they push their cadre across the border. And this is something
13:21that the TTP core commander spells out, even in his articles, and he tells people that
13:27this is exactly what Pakistan is trying to do with Afghanistan. And this is how, once they
13:33push the ISKP cadre into Afghanistan, it carries out the attacks or assassinations. And this has
13:39happened in the past too. Pakistan has used other groups to do this. But here, since we are just
13:46speculating on the current times, we are going to talk about just what is happening. So this
13:51is what the core commander from the TTP said. However, ISI has denied that. Also, the people
14:00who had good relations with the Taliban, for example, the previous Imran Khan regime, these
14:08people were very pro-Taliban. Even their ISI spy chief, Faiz Hamid, was seen sorting out
14:17some kind of a dispute between the Taliban leaders and the Haqqani leaders when they were trying to
14:24form a government. He was seen in Afghanistan, literally in September, as soon as Taliban came
14:30to power. Faiz Hamid, right now, is being arrested. He has been court-martialed for trying to support
14:38Imran Khan, even trying to create some kind of protest. The main protest that happened after the
14:46arrest of Imran Khan, they believe Faiz Hamid had something to do with. So that way, this was
14:52Asim Munir's, the current general, COAS's plan to get rid of these people. Yes.
15:01So, please also, you know, throw some light on the participation of the Balochistan
15:11Liberation Army and other Balochi groups who are now siding with the Zariqat Taliban Pakistan
15:22against, they were already against the Pakistani state because they were, I think,
15:31the Pakistani, Pakistan army, particularly, had been very, very exploitative towards them.
15:41So what has happened? So, as we know, the Baloch have always asked for self-determination. Heavy
15:48crackdowns have been happening in Balochistan since forever. A lot of Baloch insurgents have
15:54picked up arms. Not only have they evolved in terms of their fighting, their human intelligence
16:00has improved vastly over the past couple of years. Human intelligence, the network,
16:06and also the fighting tactics have changed. Initially, it was more of like attack and
16:11scamper. Now, these days, we don't see that. They are actually taking on the military full-fledged.
16:18We've seen this in many, many cases, not just the Baloch. Baloch are fighting under brass,
16:23you know, the umbrella network of all the Baloch insurgents where you see BLA, BLF, so on.
16:29Then there is also the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army, which is a part of this. So, you have people,
16:35the Sindhis fighting, you have the Baloch fighting. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Pashtuns have their
16:41strong allegiance towards the other Pashtuns who might be across the border because, at the end of
16:47the day, they don't view the Durand Line as a form of a boundary. They look at it as an artificial
16:54entity. Then the local civilians think of it this way too. So, in one side, this has happened.
17:01So, what has happened is now there's a network that has formed. Each one of them tag-team to
17:08get the job done because they all have one single goal, that is anti-Pakistan activities. So,
17:15they will go ahead and work together to achieve their respective goals. And most of them also
17:20feel that they're being exploited. Not to mention the attacks in KP from these groups has really
17:27risen quite a bit. KP and some areas around the border. So, Pakistan decided that it would start
17:35initiating this operation on the request of the Chinese because the Chinese investments, which
17:41were more towards the western side of the border, were coming under heavy attacks. Because, of
17:46course, the people who think that they are being colonized by Pakistan and might be subjugated by
17:53them and replaced as a demographic by the Chinese, they're worried. So, the attacks have been
18:01increasing on CPEC projects and it has been a big disaster for the Chinese too. So, the Chinese
18:08had ordered Pakistan to help out and they had lost interest in how much security was being provided.
18:15So now, with the Chinese in play, the militants have increased their attacks even more frequently.
18:21They've become more confident. We were not even seeing earlier the females. There have been some
18:27Chinese casualties. Yes, there have been massive Chinese casualties. There have been some serious
18:33Chinese casualties. Yes, over the years it has just been expanding. Now, even their investments
18:39were being attacked. And not only that, the insurgents have become so much more confident
18:46because, yes, now over the years they have reached a certain amount of technicality in their attacks
18:52also, strategy as well. Initially, we were not seeing as many women fedayeen, you know, the
18:58suicide bombers. Most of these groups, like the Majid Brigade of the Baloch Liberation Army,
19:05started employing females. Female fedayeen attacks were taking place where they would
19:10lead the way. They would come across as unsuspecting and the attacks were carried by
19:16this radical arm of BLA, which was the Majid Brigade. And they have claimed a lot of attacks,
19:22not only on the Pakistan military installments, but also the Chinese projects.
19:27So, with this, China was worried last year. China ordered Pakistan to do something about it.
19:32Pakistan, in order to appease China, decided it will come up with Operation Azme Ishtakam. However,
19:40protests broke out in all these areas in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, POJK, so on.
19:47And the government had no choice but to be a little more lenient. So, now what we are expecting
19:55in this area is that there will be certain private security sectors which will be given
20:01some kind of a leaving. Pakistan is coming to some terms with giving China certain responsibility
20:09in managing its own security. With all these developments, we can't expect the insurgents
20:17to not up their game. There will be upticks and there will be more insurgencies that will follow
20:24because of this. More attacks, more things. But on the other side, Taliban being a country and
20:30not being able to do anything to maintain its relations with Pakistan is going to be very
20:36difficult for any relation to be built on. Not to mention, on December 31st, reports came out
20:44that Pakistani chief of ISI, he actually met up with the president of Tajikistan.
20:54And Tajikistan is a very sensitive matter. It might not be politically or militarily strong
21:02as the other nations, but it houses the national resistance force of Afghanistan,
21:12which is anti-Taliban. That is one. Plus, the president of Tajikistan himself is worried because
21:19the Tariq-e-Taliban in Tajikistan. So, these people are looking to overthrow
21:33the current government in Tajikistan. So, Pakistan being desperate to maintain alliance,
21:39to bring down Taliban or to show a force of power to curb it into following what it wants,
21:45has met already with the Tajikistan president. And of course, this is not going to serve its
21:51purpose of building better relations with Taliban. So, this is one issue that is already happening.
21:58So, there are three factors if we have to think about it, why the deterioration is happening.
22:03One is because the border skirmishes. The Durand line is honored by Pakistan,
22:08but Afghans do not honor it, neither do the Pashtuns. Then secondly, the other issue is
22:15now with this person, the chief going, the ISI chief going and visiting
22:20Tajikistan and asking them to build on security agreements, you know, working in military tandem
22:27to counter, you know, the Taliban activities is also not going to fare well. And lastly, also,
22:34we have an issue with the refoulement, the Afghan refugees which are being sent back to Afghanistan.
22:41That is another issue which is becoming a big matter. A lot of these Afghan refugees,
22:48they had come back. Some of them, the families had returned to Pakistan, fled to Pakistan because of
22:54the Soviet-Afghan conflict. The Durand line had become like a regular exchange of Afghan refugees
23:01running into Pakistan and the Mujahideens who were trained from Pakistan running across the
23:06border to fight. So, some families have existed in Pakistan ever since the Soviet era. Their
23:12families have continued. But however, some of them might not have citizenships. Some of them have
23:18undocumented visas or cards, while some are claiming that it's a heavy crackdown that
23:24Pakistan is doing out of security matter. Because Pakistan believes that Taliban might be
23:32sending out its own fighters in form of refugees and may cause problems in Pakistan. So, they
23:40decided that they would like send back everyone. So, 23rd November is, I mean, sorry, no. In November
23:49of 2023, this is when the repatriation program started. And they were given one month to leave
23:57Pakistan. However, that did not happen. This got extended until next year, the 2024. Then,
24:05Pakistan came up with this idea that we need to do this in phases. So, it will be phase two.
24:12I mean, it got a lot of criticism from the rest of the world, international
24:17platforms. But at the end of the day, Pakistan is also economically weak at the moment.
24:23It can barely survive, let alone take care of the refugees. So, the idea was to send them back
24:29on the pretext that this was actually affecting their internal security. And of course,
24:36Pakistan said that and Taliban's reaction to TPP problem of Pakistan was that this is Pakistan's
24:44internal problem. We have no reason to get involved. So, there have been blame games going
24:50on between the two countries. And because of this, the deterioration is getting worse. Yes.
25:00You know, I must thank you for a lot of facts that you, facts developments that you have
25:08brought out. And as you know, it's also a fact that while so much has happened between
25:22the Tehreek-e-Taliban and Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have warmed up towards India.
25:33Well, India has been correct in accepting that because it makes no sense in alienating yourself
25:48to a group which is in charge of the country, which is running the country. But the fact remains
25:57the fact remains that no matter how much of the doldrums that Pakistan may be alleged to be,
26:07it is not at all affecting its induction of terrorists into India. That has continued.
26:19And we cannot expect that to be, you know, to go down just because there's pressure
26:30on Pakistan of Afghanistan. The only way to sort that out is between, you know,
26:37when the Indian government takes greater measures like it has in the past of the surgical strikes
26:45or the Balakot strikes, you know, many more of these at short intervals will certainly have
26:55a very great effect. But otherwise, we have to live with that. And by all means, we can,
27:05you know, continue to develop our relations with the Afghan Taliban, hoping that
27:15in the situation in Afghanistan improves for the Afghans. Yes, as it used to be.
27:23I think so. India's approach at this moment is a very pragmatic approach. But at the same time,
27:31I think India was always very connected with the people of Afghanistan, not so much as Taliban,
27:36which is why I think, of course, I think, which is why the humanitarian aid never stopped,
27:41regardless of how Taliban came to power. India is also one of the countries that had spoken about
27:48how Taliban had not taken a single woman on the cabinet. Exactly, exactly. That's one of the very
27:54major issues. However, I would like to add this. Recently, Al Jazeera has been quoting certain
28:00analysts saying that India has not taken a stance against, you know, the atrocities being
28:07infected on the women. But that's not true, because India has been speaking up ever since the
28:12time Taliban has come to power. And not only has India, if not spoken now, India has shown a lot,
28:19displayed a lot through action when it came to providing humanitarian aid, vaccines, so on.
28:25Not only that, we have also proposed the development of the Chah Bahar Port, so that way we
28:31can also provide a trade to even Afghanistan. It will be better for us and for Afghanistan and
28:39also for Iran, a symbiotic relation in a way. So, what India is doing is a very pragmatic approach.
28:45Indian assistance to Afghanistan has continued. In fact, this is one of the countries which has
28:55been at the forefront of, you know, assisting even in the earlier phase after the Taliban was
29:05driven out. And even now, that continues. Yes, yes, because like what Al Jazeera and few other,
29:14and I'm going to specify it, Reuters, Al Jazeera, these are the two publications that have been
29:19defaming India by saying that we haven't said a word while we're trying to warm up to Taliban.
29:23But then again, Taliban wasn't our creation, Taliban was Pakistan's creation. I think if
29:29anything, you should hold the person responsible who has produced it. You're right in that,
29:35but then there are so many. Today, India is in a position where there are a number of countries
29:43or forces, you know, which are not very happy about its progress and are working very hard
29:55to do us down. Well, be that as it may. Thank you, Aparna Rahul, for all your inputs. All the best.