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00:00This is Apropos.
00:04The US and Colombia appear to have pulled back from the brink of a trade war after the
00:09White House said the South American nation had agreed to accept military aircraft carrying
00:14deported migrants.
00:16President Donald Trump had threatened tariffs and sanctions on Colombia to punish it for
00:21earlier refusing to accept flights carrying deportees as part of his sweeping immigration
00:26crackdown.
00:27Matthew Mary Karasche has the story.
00:32After a tit-for-tat of tariff threats, an escalating row between the United States and
00:36Colombia over the repatriation of illegal migrants seems to have abated.
00:42On Sunday, Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to allow two military deportation
00:47flights to land, accusing the United States of treating migrants like criminals.
00:52US President Donald Trump quickly responded, imposing 25 percent tariffs on all Colombian
00:58goods coming into the US, a travel ban on Colombian officials and financial sanctions.
01:04Not to be outdone, Petro said he would also impose a 25 percent tariff on American goods.
01:10Nonetheless, just hours later, both sides said the impasse had subsided.
01:19We will continue to receive Colombians who return as deportees, guaranteeing them dignified
01:25conditions as citizens with rights.
01:32On Thursday, Mexico also refused to let a US military aircraft land with migrants.
01:37In the past, Trump has threatened Mexico with 25 percent tariffs to force further action
01:43against illegal migrants and fentanyl flowing into the US.
01:47On Friday, 265 migrants deported from the United States landed in Guatemala.
01:53And on Saturday, about 80 others arrived in Brazil, in conditions the local government
01:58described as degrading.
02:01The complaints from the people who arrived were very serious.
02:06We had families, children, children with autism or with some type of disability who went through
02:13very serious situations.
02:17Trump began his second term with a flurry of executive actions aimed at toughening entry
02:22into the United States.
02:24On his first day in office, he signed orders declaring a national emergency at the southern
02:29US border and announced the deployment of more troops to the area.
02:34More on this story, let's bring in Sergio Guzman, director of political consultancy
02:38firm Columbia Risk Analysis.
02:40Thank you so much, Sergio, for being with us this evening.
02:44Before coming on air, it remained unclear whether the Colombian president has relinquished
02:49all of his demands.
02:50Bogota is saying it has sent its own planes to the US to bring home deportees.
02:56So is this row actually over?
02:59Well, maybe it's the first round in a much more prolonged confrontation between Washington
03:05and Colombia under President Trump and Gustavo Petro.
03:10These are two presidents with very short tempers and two presidents that are ready
03:14to face off people that are confronted.
03:18Petro, on the one hand, wants to come off as the leader of the south, of the global
03:24south trying to face a North American sort of a more eager and agitated president.
03:32And President Trump wants to make Colombia an example for any other government that crosses
03:37him.
03:39A match made in heaven, if you will, for the perfect storm to happen in Colombia these
03:44days.
03:45And you've pointed out that Petro, he's previously and quite regularly accepted deportation flights.
03:51So what specifically was he objecting to this time?
03:54Was the fact that these migrants were being put into handcuffs and being chained effectively?
03:59Is that specifically what his concerns were here?
04:03We don't think so, because in the past, other deportation flights have happened under the
04:07same conditions.
04:09The only difference is that when those happened under a Democratic president, Joe Biden, Petro
04:14didn't much as bat an eye to what was happening.
04:17But now with Donald Trump in office, Petro saw it as an opportunity for confrontation.
04:23In fact, Petro at three in the morning had tweeted that we should welcome the migrants
04:28with open arms and roses at the airport.
04:31And then 30 minutes later, he changed his mind and announced mid-flights that the flights
04:35were no longer welcome to land on Colombian soil.
04:38So yes, this was a huge about face from Gustavo Petro, one that we Colombians were very used
04:44to.
04:45But also the response by US President Trump seemed to be a bit disproportionate on our
04:50end, mostly to make an example out of Petro, but also to be a show of force to what Trump
04:56is willing to do to other countries.
04:58And how critical has Petro been of US policy previously under former presidents?
05:04Well, Petro has, you know, invoked the global South, the fight against slavery.
05:10He very famously broke off relationships with Israel that is a close ally to the United
05:15States.
05:16And he's also announced an intention and interest in joining the Chinese Belt and Road initiatives
05:21and the BRICS initiative.
05:23And so in that sense, it seems that Colombia is posed to diversify its set of alliances
05:29on tethering itself from the United States as our main trading partner and as our main
05:34military partner.
05:35However, that will take months and the damage has already been done.
05:39Yeah, because what kind of impact is this likely to have more widely on US relations,
05:44not just with Colombia, but with some of its neighbours in Latin America?
05:49I think all neighbours in Latin America are going to look at the US as a less than firm
05:55ally, looking at the US commitment to their countries in relation to how strong they are
06:00on the issues that are of interest to Trump, but not really a diverse relationship that's
06:05based on mutual interests and shared values.
06:08In that sense, some of the projects involving drug trafficking, the environment, the diversity
06:16of our people, culture, will very certainly be put under the radar for Trump to eliminate.
06:22And do you think it might push some of those countries closer towards the likes of China,
06:26Russia, India, the EU?
06:30It could potentially, but you also don't see many of these countries stepping out in support
06:36of Colombia or of other countries for that matter.
06:39Look at Denmark.
06:40It's not clear that a lot of countries have also supported Denmark in their claims for
06:44fear of retaliation by the United States.
06:48And so, although Petro tried to be the first president to resist Donald Trump's efforts,
06:55what he's essentially done is the opposite.
06:57He's emboldened Donald Trump to use the same tactic over and over again against governments
07:02that he views as opponents or governments that he views as less than constructive to
07:07implement some of his foreign policy objectives.
07:09Well, bearing in mind that fear of retaliation, how can countries like Colombia better demonstrate
07:16their opposition to Donald Trump's policies when it comes to immigration specifically?
07:22We think that working through multilateral and intergovernmental organisations to address
07:28this issue is an important way.
07:31Obviously, for the United States dealing on a one-on-one basis, threatening with individual
07:38tariffs and things like that is going to be a preferred option.
07:41But if countries round together and show strength, then this might essentially bring
07:46Donald Trump to the table.
07:47The problem is this was what happened during the first Donald Trump administration.
07:52Now Donald Trump seems to have a better grasp of how government works, of how multilateral
07:57organisations work and is much more willing to put his thumb down.
08:01And how important is American trade for Colombia?
08:04How much does it rely on access to the US market, for example?
08:09Well, the US is Colombia's principal trade partner.
08:13Around 26% of our exports go to the United States, accounting for over $13 billion in
08:19inter-annual trade.
08:21Moreover, we receive at least $11 billion in remittances from Colombians working in
08:26the United States annually.
08:28And so cutting that will be a significant blow to Colombia's GDP, while the country
08:35will not be able to fill that vacuum or that gap in the short term.
08:40And Sergio, looking ahead then to the next four years, how do you think Donald Trump's
08:44presidency is going to impact Colombia?
08:48Your consultancy firm, it said that the two leaders hold essentially opposite policy positions
08:54on nearly every issue, making it unlikely that they're going to be able to find common
08:59ground anywhere.
09:00So what can actually be done to try and find some of that common ground or to move various
09:04issues forward, like immigration?
09:07Well, the problem that this has created is not only has Colombia become a central issue
09:13to Donald Trump's day-to-day, the first week of his administration, but he's always going
09:18to hold sort of a personal grudge to Colombia and to Petro for what has happened this week.
09:25This is going to make it very difficult for work happening in the bottom rung of the ladder
09:31at the ambassadorial level, at the ministerial level, at the interagency, police, intelligence,
09:38judicial collaboration.
09:39All of these issues are going to be much harder to work in between Colombia and the United
09:45States.
09:46So all aspects of the relationship are now being put in check.
09:49But let's not forget, in the middle of this, there's hundreds of thousands of people involved,
09:57hundreds of thousands of migrants, of people who have been displaced, of victims that live
10:01in the United States and are now in a very, very uncertain situation about their repatriation
10:07and the circumstances that's going to happen.
10:10And then after Colombia, there's a reason why those people left Colombia to begin with.
10:15It's unclear if many of those people are going to be safe.
10:18It's unclear if many of those people are going to have an economic livelihood waiting for
10:21them once they are here.
10:23So evidently, this will bring about a lot of human sorrow and suffering as well.
10:28And also, Sergio, this comes in the context of mounting guerrilla violence in Colombia,
10:34issues there on the border with Venezuela.
10:36So how is all of that likely to play into it?
10:38You've been critical also of the decision to impose a state of emergency in that region.
10:45Well that's exactly right.
10:47One of the things that we've sustained at Colombia Risk Analysis for a while is that
10:52what is going to prevent mass migration to the United States is a more secure, more prosperous
10:57Colombia.
10:58And the best way to work with to ensure that goal is to strengthen the Colombian government's
11:03capacity to collaborate with the Colombian government to be able to do that.
11:07Instead, what the United States is doing is essentially pulling the rug off under our
11:11feet and making it harder for Colombia to operate effectively, ultimately resulting
11:18in more migration going to the United States.
11:20But that's a long term issue.
11:22The short term issue is whether or not Donald Trump won the day or not.
11:26And that's unfortunately true.
11:28And speaking of collaboration, you've also said that drug policy could be an area for
11:34collaboration between Petro and Trump.
11:37Have you seen any indication that this is likely under the Trump administration?
11:42The biggest issue there is Donald Trump wants to make the number of hectares of coca cultivated
11:48a central turning point of the relationship.
11:51And Petro is trying to move away from that metric and much more closely associate the
11:56interdiction, the amount of tons of cocaine that are captured in sea or in transit to
12:02the United States.
12:04Colombia's interdiction is growing, but it's undoubtable that Colombia's number of hectares
12:09of cocaine has been growing exponentially since Petro took office.
12:13Sergio, we'll have to leave it there for now, but we do really appreciate your time on the
12:17programme.
12:18Thanks for joining us this evening.
12:19That is Sergio Guzman, director of the political consultancy firm, Colombia Risk Analysis.
12:24Well, that's it from us.