"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz (31/01/2025) dengan tema Deretan Saham Paling Kuat dan Paling Lemah Sepanjang Januari".
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00:00Thank you, Mr. Mirsa, for joining us again and watching Masih Market Buzz.
00:09Of course, we will handle the most up-to-date information and recommendations on the capital market.
00:14But before that, Mr. Mirsa, we will present some of the next spotlight markets that are the main focus,
00:20where IHSG, yesterday Mr. Mirsa went down to level 7073 after a long vacation.
00:25The stock market is the main focus, followed by AMMN and ANTA, which are the main focus of IHSG,
00:33with 5.92% and 5.37% correction each.
00:38BCA is also back in action to sell, Mr. Mirsa, and ANJLOG has reached around 5% in the last week.
00:45That is the spotlight market that we summarized based on the trading on January 31st,
00:49I mean January 30th, or the day of our last visit, Mr. Mirsa.
00:54And now, Mr. Mirsa, let's take a look at some of the global economic agendas and also the agendas from ME10.
01:08From Asia, Mr. Mirsa, there are still many exchanges that are on vacation, such as from China,
01:15then there are also from Hong Kong, Mr. Mirsa, Vietnam, and we see from Japan, Mr. Mirsa, there is IHK,
01:23then the Singapore Bank loan in December, then from the US, the price index, PCE, Inti, in December,
01:31and there is also a reserve position in the Federal Reserve Bank, as well as from Europe, the level of German unemployment.
01:38What about the ME10 agenda?
01:42It seems that the ME10 agenda is quite quiet, where there is only an agenda from AGI, RUPS, and MCash, also RUPS.
01:50An update from Asia, Mr. Mirsa, in the middle of vacation, a number of main exchanges in the Asian region, IMLEC,
01:56we see, this is the update of Mr. Mirsa, where Nikkei rose 0.13%,
02:02Straight Time Singapore rose 1.49%, KOSPI, South Korea fell 0.95%, and Hang Seng is still on vacation.
02:10This morning, Mr. Mirsa, we will discuss with Mr. Octavianus Audi, who is the Vice President of Marketing Strategy and Planning PT Kiwom Securitas Indonesia.
02:27Good morning, Mr. Audi.
02:30Good morning, Ma'am.
02:31Thank you very much for your time, Mr. Audi.
02:34Before we continue, we want to change the month to February, and the price index and the combined price are still maintained below 7,100 in the last few days,
02:43maybe because of the holiday factor, this is generally done by investors, is to sell or sell shares.
02:50But before that, a sentiment was updated, there is from the United States, Trump again,
02:56will apply a tariff in the near future for its two best trade partners, Mexico and Canada, and it is unbearable, it is 25%.
03:03This had shaken Wall Street at the end of the announcement session,
03:08but it is still able to survive because of the efforts of the MI10, this MI10 supports Wall Street.
03:14But how far? Do you see a factor from Trump's policy that will apply this tariff to the global market, especially domestic later?
03:25Yes, so this has been responded quite negatively by the market in both regions in the United States,
03:33including in several regions in Asia, including Indonesia.
03:37Because the concern, again, is the instability or uncertainty of the economy,
03:44which is likely to interfere with international trade.
03:48So if we look at it, even though Trump's considerations for China are still not specifically mentioned at the inauguration,
03:57but we do see that this will not be hidden from President Trump, which seems to continue to increase.
04:05And even yesterday it started to look like there was action, there was a chip,
04:10there were also some electronic goods that would be raised the new tariff.
04:17And this is indeed what makes the uncertainty increase.
04:22And if we look at it, there has actually been a shift in investment from investors,
04:27which has shifted to low-risk assets, including safe haven.
04:32Even if we look at the gold price, it's almost 2800 per trillion US dollars.
04:37So this has started to illustrate that these investors are already looking for alternatives
04:43in the middle of Trump's policy, which is very tough.
04:47And indeed, the tagline is American first.
04:50And this is what makes Trump's approach so tough to countries that are considered,
04:56from a trading point of view, not benefiting the United States.
04:59Including Indonesia. Indonesia also, when there was policy yesterday,
05:03we were able to move 7200, a little past, finally down again.
05:07So this is what makes, even though there is a little holiday,
05:11but we see that investors tend to respond because of the policy.
05:17Okay, tend to respond negatively like that.
05:19And maybe if on Wall Street, it hasn't affected too much,
05:22because there is financial reporting, where for the S&P Index,
05:2570% reported so far still above the estimate.
05:29Okay, then what should be anticipated when the plan is,
05:33on February 1, the tariff of 25% to Canada and Mexico will be applied by the United States.
05:38And we know, yes, gold finally broke the record.
05:42Even this morning we captured Mr. Audi, it was already 2800.
05:46Well, what do you think?
05:48What should market players do for domestic, especially retail, in the current position?
05:55Yes, so actually if we look at the investment pattern,
06:00maybe as an investor, as an editor,
06:02this channel can do diversification that we see will be quite tough this year too.
06:07Even yesterday, when FED announced that it was holding its flower family,
06:12it also became a little picture that,
06:15it was said that Jadon Powell will not, in quotation marks,
06:19follow President Trump's instructions to reduce the flower family.
06:23So, hiring a follower is also likely to be a market burden,
06:29in the time we estimate for this year.
06:33So, this is also what makes us see this market tendency to be more mixed, more stressed.
06:46Will be mixed, stressed, like that.
06:49Is there an opportunity that can be used in the middle of the price of gold,
06:51breaking the highest record?
06:52And this is not the first time, gold has broken the highest record several times,
06:56from 2024 to 2025 at this time.
07:00Is there an opportunity that can be used in the middle of the price of gold,
07:03and earlier you said that FED is only likely to break the flower family once or twice,
07:07does it mean that there is a 3,000 chance of gold?
07:12Yes, so actually if we talk about gold,
07:15even some outside consensus has estimated that the price of gold
07:20may move up to 2,500 this year.
07:242,500?
07:25Yes, so this is still a prima donna,
07:28which is quite a choice,
07:30which is the main alternative choice.
07:32Because if we look at the central bank,
07:34they also collect a lot of gold themselves.
07:36So, the push for gold or the demand for gold is not only from the investors,
07:40but also from the central bank,
07:41some central banks are also still hunting for gold as a more stable hold,
07:47which can be offered.
07:50But Mr. Audi, now it's actually at 2,790, 2,800,
07:54you said earlier the target was 2,500.
07:58Oh, sorry, 2,500 is yesterday,
08:01so for this year, this consensus has already started,
08:04many have speculated,
08:06yesterday when Trump started to tighten again,
08:10this has already started to adjust.
08:12So if we look at it,
08:14from last year it has started to move,
08:162,500 is already more than 2,700 at the moment,
08:19and the concern is,
08:21if this continues,
08:233,000 to 3,100 will become a level that is not too far.
08:31What is your recommendation,
08:32in the middle of a record high gold price?
08:38Yes, so maybe this can be an alternative too,
08:40because if we look at it,
08:42maybe for ME10-ME10,
08:44we think it will also have a little impact,
08:46related to the gold price, especially as a producer.
08:49But if we look at it from the point of view of diversification,
08:52this can be an alternative,
08:55in the midst of this uncertainty,
08:57that investors can hold more stable,
09:00or be used as a safe haven for uncertain conditions,
09:05in the middle of Trump's tariff policy.
09:07Will this also have an impact on ME10-ME10,
09:13related to gold?
09:15We will see later at the opening of the trade.
09:16But before that, Mr. Meirsa,
09:17you have information about the stocks,
09:19which in the last 20 days,
09:20have experienced significant strength,
09:23both in terms of volume and transaction value.
09:26Among them, Mr. Meirsa,
09:27you can see on your screen,
09:29where there are stocks like Gotu,
09:31then there is also Mr. Meirsa,
09:33there is Bumi, BRMS,
09:35then also Inet,
09:36we will present the complete information later.
09:37And the review for the last 20 days,
09:39these stocks that have the best energy,
09:41what will the next projection be like?
09:43Stay tuned with us, Mr. Meirsa,
09:45in MarketBus.
09:47Thank you, Mr. Meirsa, for joining us again,
09:49and we will continue to discuss with Mr. Audi.
09:51And this is going to be a substitute for the month of Mr. Audi,
09:53where we captured in the last 20 trading days,
09:58stocks that in terms of volume,
10:01recorded a significant increase.
10:03That is Gotu, then there is Bumi,
10:05BRMS, Inet, and also DOOH.
10:08Then if we talk about transaction value,
10:11the largest is BBRI, BBCA, Bang Mandiri, PTRO,
10:14and there is also PANI,
10:16there are 5 of them.
10:17Are you more comfortable trading stocks based on volume,
10:21even though it has to be both?
10:23But which is more important, volume or transaction value,
10:25if we talk about the last 20 days?
10:29Yes, so actually if we look at it from the liquidity side,
10:32actually if we look at it,
10:33both are quite valid indicators,
10:36where the volume of transactions is also
10:38evaluated from outstanding shares that are available in the market.
10:42But the most tenderly seen by big funds
10:47or foreign investors,
10:48usually they will look for the more liquid,
10:50in quotation marks, in terms of transaction value.
10:53So what is usually considered
10:55for quite interesting stocks,
10:58it is usually those that have high liquidity,
11:01which is reflected in the value of the transaction.
11:04Okay, so more to the value of the transaction, right?
11:08Yes, that's right.
11:09Okay, if we look at the volume first,
11:13is it true that from this volume,
11:15for example, GoTo,
11:16then the volume reaches 80.4 billion
11:19in the last 20 days,
11:22BUMi, BRMS,
11:23at this time you are not interested in Inet, DOOH?
11:28Yes, so actually if we are interested,
11:30actually if we elaborate further,
11:32if we only talk about transaction volume,
11:35this also reflects,
11:36as we have said earlier,
11:38that this is more reflective due to outstanding shares,
11:42or the availability of stocks in the market is more,
11:45so it creates a more active transaction volume level.
11:51But again,
11:53do we like it?
11:55Yes, we also like it,
11:56on the one hand,
11:57plus a technical position that is considered quite interesting,
12:02especially with the so-called bullish trend,
12:06or even a reversal trend,
12:08this is also one of the interesting ones.
12:10For example, like GoTo,
12:11GoTo is indeed one of the technologies
12:14that if we look at it,
12:15is actually reflected in the market response
12:18related to the release of Kinerja,
12:20so at this time,
12:22even with positive EBITDA,
12:24then also the target of the new management,
12:27until it can create a fairly positive level,
12:31this is still very much responded by the market
12:33and awaited by the market,
12:34so the interest in retail,
12:37in the transaction of GoTo,
12:39is quite increasing,
12:41and it can be seen from the transaction volume,
12:43as I have said earlier,
12:44that there is indeed a significant increase
12:47in the last 20 days.
12:48So indeed,
12:49if we talk about interesting or not interesting,
12:51actually we can also add,
12:53like from the technical analysis,
12:56and also fundamental analysis,
12:57which can confirm that
12:59whether the increase in the volume of the transaction
13:01is also pushed,
13:02or there is a sentiment,
13:04which can be a reason.
13:06Okay, but there is a more firm one,
13:08to the transactions values,
13:10based on the transaction value
13:11in the last 20 days.
13:12I mentioned there is BBR, Ipomirsa,
13:14then the transaction value in the last 20 days
13:17is around 18.2 trillion rupiah,
13:19BC is 14.1 trillion rupiah,
13:20there is Bank Mandiri, PTR, OPA,
13:22which in your opinion,
13:25in the medium term,
13:27can still be kept or bought?
13:31Yes, so actually,
13:32if we look at the big value of SAMSAM,
13:34this is usually SAMSAM LQ45,
13:36which is included in the industry,
13:38in the LQ45 stock exchange,
13:40and if we look at it,
13:42for SAMSAM Banking,
13:43there are a lot of discounts,
13:44if we elaborate further,
13:46because the sentiment is related to,
13:47if it has been released,
13:49there is BCA and there is also BNI,
13:52and if we look at it,
13:53here is indeed the concern of the investors,
13:55is why SAMSAM Banking,
13:57although the value of the transaction is large,
14:00but in terms of trend,
14:01it actually experienced a decline,
14:02and if we can see,
14:03it turns out that the cost of credit
14:05of these big banks
14:07is actually starting to experience a little turbulence,
14:10one of them is like BRI,
14:12which if we look at it,
14:14this has exceeded the company's guidance,
14:16the guidance of the management in 2024,
14:19so that's why if we look at it,
14:20why is BRI released the most?
14:23Because the concern of the investors,
14:25if they hire a follower,
14:26this will cause that the cost of credit
14:29will be higher or increase.
14:32It means that this sentiment is caught negative,
14:35so that the market conditions
14:36that are also falling right now,
14:38becomes a momentum to release first.