"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Selasa (03/12/2024) dengan tema Pasar Saham Masih Turun, Bagaimana dengan Ekspektasi Santa Rally?"
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00:00Next, we will look at the next economic agenda that we will discuss from South Korea.
00:12There is the South Korea's IHK Index in November.
00:16And from the United States, there is the FED Welder.
00:20And the METAN agenda today is to open the IMF, which will be held by the European Central Bank.
00:28Meanwhile, MPXL will hold the cash dividend, and TSPC will hold the interim cash ex-dividend.
00:35And next, we will look at the opening of the main Asian exchanges this morning.
00:40As you can see on the television screen, the main ASEAN exchanges this morning,
00:44Compaq opened at 1.12%, Nikkei opened at 38,944%, STI Singapore opened at 0.81%,
00:53Level 3,781, and Kospi Korea opened at 1.52%, Level 2,491, and Hang Seng Hong Kong opened at 0.65%,
01:05at the level of 19,550.
01:15Yes, Mr. President, to discuss this morning on Market Plus, we have contacted Mr. Praska Putrantiob,
01:20who is the CEO of Advisor.id. Good morning, Mr. Praska.
01:24Good morning, Mr. Seki.
01:26Thank you, Mr. Praska, for joining us again on Market Plus.
01:30If we talk about a few things that seem to be quite the focus of global investors,
01:35related to the statement of the US President-elect, Donald Trump,
01:40who said that Trump will impose a 100% tariff on commodities exported by BRICS
01:49if BRICS leaves the US dollar.
01:54How did this actually get captured and reacted by the market players, Mr. Praska?
02:02Yes, okay. So, related to the statement of the US President-elect,
02:07of course, this caused some kind of pressure in the foreign market.
02:13For example, if we look at the index for the first time,
02:16the value of the Rupiah exchange rate immediately weakened to 15.924 yesterday,
02:22and at the same time, it also hit the domestic stock market, especially Indonesia.
02:27Even though, if I look at it, it's still quite abnormal.
02:30Not all foreign markets have helped in the correction,
02:35but Indonesia is quite stressed,
02:37because Indonesia is one that also wants to join BRICS.
02:42In the middle, there is also a conflict between Ukraine and the United States,
02:47which is increasing due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine.
02:53And also, with the emergence of the statement,
02:56investors' concerns eventually created pressure in the stock market,
03:00at the same time causing a run to Safehaven,
03:03and if I'm not mistaken, these tickets are also expected to affect other commodities,
03:09such as gold, which is slightly stronger, like that.
03:14Okay. Yes, from this commodity,
03:16it was also mentioned several times that there was an urgency from Indonesia
03:21to join BRICS.
03:22That means, if Indonesia does join,
03:25then there are agreements between members,
03:28one of which is by using BRICS special funds,
03:31and also leaving it in the United States,
03:33maybe this will have implications for Indonesia, right?
03:35Because the United States itself is one of the important trading partners for Indonesia.
03:39But speaking of implications for the United States itself,
03:42is this actually a part of their profit,
03:45or is it also harmful for the United States
03:48and then Donald Trump imposed a 100% entry rate for BRICS members?
03:54Yes, okay. So, if we look at it,
03:56the impact on the United States itself is not too dominant,
04:01but indirectly, the long-term effects are just that,
04:04with the existence of maybe, what is it called,
04:07the policy to create pressure on the economy and developed countries
04:11that export dominantly to the United States.
04:13We are exposed to the United States,
04:16so for the development of the country's economy,
04:19it will also affect the development of the country's economy,
04:22in a sectorial way,
04:24if we talk about the modern market, it may be different,
04:26but in a sectorial way,
04:27which will also indirectly affect the long-term effects
04:31of the modern market in developed countries.
04:35So, indeed, for this short term,
04:37it seems that the investor has responded to the concern
04:43that the impact can go anywhere
04:46if the policy is quite extreme.
04:51President-elect Donald Trump, psychologically,
04:55gave a booster to the US dollar,
04:58which ended your strength in 4 days.
05:00What is the opportunity and implications for the US dollar?
05:03What is it like, Mr. Prasaka?
05:05Of course, this is about the opportunity for the US dollar
05:09if there is a Santa Rally.
05:12Will this have an impact?
05:15Yes, so, similar to what President-elect Donald Trump said earlier,
05:20the US dollar has become a kind of short-term disruptor,
05:23if I may say so,
05:24because it has to make long-term efforts,
05:28such as for face-to-face trading in December,
05:31at the end of this year, October 2020.
05:33It has been less than a month,
05:35it has been started with less good things,
05:37the performance has increased by more than 1%,
05:39and even foreign funds,
05:40as far as I can see,
05:41yesterday it was still a net sale,
05:431.26 trillion in the regular market,
05:45and in a week, 4.64 trillion,
05:47and even during the month of October,
05:49it has reached 17.19 trillion.
05:51There is a lot of pressure,
05:52especially in the banking sector.
05:55Big banks are the most affected by foreign investors,
05:59and the opportunity for a Santa Claus Rally in December,
06:03in my opinion,
06:04may only happen when it is not too significant,
06:07because the market quality in the stock market is quite large,
06:11because it is not only from the statement of the bank,
06:13but also looking at the release of economic data
06:16that was just released last week,
06:19both in the domestic market, such as inflation data,
06:22exchange rate conditions,
06:23and then data from the PMI of China and the US,
06:27those are also things that affect foreign investors,
06:32regarding the condition of our stock market
06:34and the alternative of our stock market
06:35versus other countries, I think.
06:37The possibility for a Santa Claus Rally will still be there,
06:39but the strength is limited,
06:40because there are still some heavyweight sentiments,
06:44among others, this may be seen from the results
06:46that then fell again in trading in early December 2024,
06:51at the end of 2024.
06:54Okay, the non-primary consumer goods sector is the worst,
06:57dropped 2.69% at the closing of trade yesterday,
07:01what is actually the main trigger,
07:03and what is the recommendation,
07:05maybe for those who then see
07:07or want to wait for momentum like that
07:09to be able to enter this sector,
07:12weakness can be used to be able to enter
07:14at a cheaper level like that,
07:17or do you think you still see the possibilities
07:20for this sector to continue to weaken?
07:23Yes, actually,
07:25for me, there is quite a lot of pressure
07:28on the big retail stocks,
07:32such as MAPA, MAPI,
07:34ERA, Kejah Tunggal, BNTR,
07:36maybe the biggest one is in MAPA and MAPI,
07:40from retail trading,
07:47but the top class segment is also ERA,
07:50so there is ERA, MAPA and MAPI.
07:52Here, the pressure is certainly followed by
07:56a slowdown in the year 2024,
08:03which is likely to cause a price increase,
08:06even though ERA is still in its infancy
08:10for MAPA and MAPI here,
08:12starting to experience pressure,
08:15and this condition is also confirmed
08:17by the Consumer Confidence Index,
08:21which also started to experience a decrease
08:25to the lowest level in the last year,
08:28at level 121,
08:30and also here for the condition of retail trading,
08:35Indonesia is also starting to experience
08:40a delay in the year-on-year
08:42in the release per September,
08:44and also some other challenges,
08:46if we look here,
08:48the inflation in Indonesia was around 1.51%,
08:54sorry, 1.55%,
08:56slowing down again compared to the previous month,
08:59even though it was normal,
09:01there was an increase of 0.3%,
09:03but compared to the last year,
09:05it slowed down,
09:06and this is also a concern,
09:08that the inflation will continue to slow down,
09:10then the MAPI index is still below 50,
09:13this is actually a concern,
09:16especially in the spending sector,
09:18where the population is still quite high,
09:20and can affect GDP growth,
09:22something like that.
09:23Okay, Mr. Plaska,
09:24if we look at the reaction of the community,
09:26related to the PPN reduction to 12% in early 2025,
09:30there was a movement for frugal living,
09:34the consumption of the population here will also be maintained,
09:38this is then considered to have an impact
09:40on domestic consumption,
09:41and will have an impact on economic growth.
09:44Depending on the sectors directly affected by the consumption of the community,
09:47of course, this is close to the momentum of the festive season at the end of the year,
09:52the holiday at the end of the year,
09:54usually the retail sector, usually farming,
09:56but facing this sentiment,
09:58actually, what is it like?
10:00If we look at it from this perspective,
10:02does this indicate that the consumption of the community has started to slow down
10:06to anticipate the PPN to become 12% at the beginning of the year?
10:11Yes, I think so,
10:13if we are here,
10:15from the indicators,
10:17from the consumer confidence index,
10:19which has also fallen,
10:20low in the last year,
10:21at level 121,
10:22and also if we are here,
10:23manufacturing is doing well,
10:25plus the release of data from the Residential Property Index,
10:33so the property price index also slowed down again
10:37in the third quarter,
10:39because overall,
10:41the pressure on purchasing power
10:43becomes a concern,
10:44not only in retail,
10:46but also in all sectors,
10:47including property,
10:48and this is also due to the slowdown in purchasing power consumption,
10:53the community and the prospect of increasing PPN,
10:55which may have been projected by the producer,
10:58this is what makes the next quarter
11:02that the potential margin is getting worse,
11:06not because of the increase in prices,
11:08but because of the slowdown in purchasing power,
11:10the community is in the middle of relatively stable prices,
11:12or maybe experiencing an increase.
11:16Okay, it means that the sentiment for the consumer sector,
11:18or maybe retail,
11:19is still a bit negative,
11:21especially the appetite of the community itself,
11:23may be held back a bit
11:25to consume consumer goods.
11:27Okay, as interesting as it is,
11:29I think we will continue in the next quarter,
11:31of course, with the discussion of your choices,
11:34and the producer will be with us,
11:35we will be back soon.
11:36Thank you for staying tuned with us,
11:38and we will watch the morning show
11:41that was recommended by Mr. Plaska,
11:43including MPMX with support at Rp 980,000,
11:47Resesnes at Rp 1080,000,
11:49a recommendation by,
11:50then there is BBRI with support at Rp 4,100,000,
11:52Resesnes at Rp 4,950,000,
11:54a recommendation by,
11:55then there is ASA,
11:56support at Rp 690,000,
11:57Resesnes at Rp 805,000,
11:59a recommendation by,
12:00then there is also Brand with support at Rp 6,525,000,
12:03and Resesnes at Rp 9,250,000,
12:06a recommendation by,
12:07let's go to MPMX first,
12:09Mr. Plaska, please.
12:10Yes, okay, what is it,
12:13related to MPMX,
12:14let's see here,
12:15the price movement,
12:17I will review it first,
12:18indeed, in the middle of the price condition,
12:21which,
12:22as of now,
12:24it is expected to experience a rebound,
12:26because it has touched the support level,
12:28our prediction is supported at around Rp 7,056,000,
12:32and yesterday,
12:33the pressure was quite deep,
12:34hearing a lot of sentiment from macro data,
12:36which is not good in the country,
12:38while for you,
12:39some recommendations from MPMX itself,
12:41technically,
12:42it has also touched the support level,
12:44at the level of Rp 980,000,
12:47so in my opinion,
12:48this is an interesting level to be accumulated,
12:49in the range earlier,
12:50in the range of Rp 980,000 to Rp 1,005,000,
12:54that is an area level,
12:55which in my opinion is interesting to be highlighted,
12:57and the closest target for the short term,
12:59in the range from Rp 1,045,000 to Rp 1,080,000,
13:03and in addition,
13:04this MPMX share,
13:05a share that has quite a large dividend yield,
13:08around 10% more,
13:09around 11%,
13:10so for example,
13:11a share that can be highlighted,
13:13in the long term,
13:15like that,
13:16it is also supported by the fundamental interest rate,
13:18highlighted here,
13:19it is still in the growth range,
13:22although it is a bit slow,
13:23but it is still in the positive interest rate,
13:25and an interesting relative valuation.
13:28For MPMX itself,
13:30it is interesting to be highlighted,
13:31to be included in the investment term,
13:34in the long term,
13:35like that, right?
13:36Correct, yes.
13:38Interesting for trading,
13:39for MPMX,
13:40the price is quite volatile,
13:42or what is it like?
13:44For MPMX,
13:45in my opinion,
13:46it is more in the hold,
13:47because it is more for the dividend player,
13:49and also,
13:50for trading,
13:51in my opinion,
13:52the pattern is a bit slower,
13:53sideways,
13:54so in my opinion,
13:55or in anticipation,
13:56in the middle of a volatile relative valuation,
13:58it is interesting to be highlighted,
14:00as a buffer,
14:01like that in the portfolio.
14:02Okay, in terms of movement,
14:04it will be quite interesting,
14:06if it holds,
14:08or holds MPMX itself,
14:09for the investment term,
14:10in the long term.
14:11From MPMX,
14:12let's move to BBRI,
14:13what do you think?
14:16Yes, okay.
14:17For BBRI itself,
14:18what I see is,
14:20with quite a lot of selling pressure,
14:22so I don't have a chance to understand,
14:24to the big banks,
14:25which have been discounted,
14:26beside the independent BCA,
14:29but BBRI here,
14:31has entered the area,
14:33let's say,
14:34near the support level,
14:354090 to 4100,
14:36so it enters the buy area,
14:37in the range,
14:384100 to 4300,
14:40and indeed,
14:41this pressure is not much,
14:42so because,
14:43the action of selling foreign investors,
14:45which makes the big banks,
14:46including BBRI,
14:47is also quite significant,
14:48and BBRI,
14:49fundamentally,
14:50is still positive,
14:51just that,
14:52indeed,
14:53it has slowed down this year,
14:54because of,
14:55what is it,
14:56the side effect of the pressure,
14:58what is it,
14:59on the stock market,
15:00so that,
15:01the trading network has also slowed down,
15:02and broke up,
15:03to about 10%,
15:04from about 10% to 12%,
15:06so that,
15:07the stock market is in a slump,
15:08but in my opinion,
15:09in the midst of that pressure,
15:10BBRI is the most interesting,
15:11because,
15:12while focusing on,
15:13what is it,
15:14WMK,
15:15also more to the people,
15:16that,
15:17so to speak,
15:18the expectation of spending,
15:19which may be better in the future,
15:20this can be a driver,
15:22for BBRI,
15:23for the long term,
15:25so,
15:26the target is to,
15:27BBRI,
15:28for,
15:29what is it,
15:30target price at level,
15:31Rp 4,950,000,
15:32for the medium to long term.
15:33Okay,
15:34for,
15:36the BUMN bank,
15:38which focuses on,
15:40micro financing,
15:41there is a program,
15:42related to,
15:43debt repayment,
15:44from investors,
15:45and also investors,
15:46actually,
15:47if BBRI,
15:48is it quite affected,
15:49Mr. Raska,
15:50related to this?
15:51In my opinion,
15:52actually,
15:53but,
15:54it's not significant,
15:55because,
15:56in debt repayment,
15:57there is a limit,
15:58so,
15:59my maximum is,
16:00Rp 500,000,000,
16:01not,
16:02not,
16:03there are also certain requirements,
16:04so,
16:05not,
16:06not all,
16:07directly,
16:08what is it,
16:09like all kinds,
16:10are eliminated,
16:11significantly,
16:12there are,
16:13so,
16:14the bank,
16:15in my opinion,
16:16still relatively,
16:17can,
16:18maintain,
16:19also,
16:20do,
16:21calculate the risk,
16:22which,
16:23certainly,
16:24the risk.
16:25Okay,
16:26as well as,
16:27the potential,
16:28financing,
16:29in other sectors,
16:30which,
16:31then,
16:32we also support,
16:33based on,
16:34debt repayment,
16:35BBRI,
16:36like that,
16:37from BBRI,
16:38we go to ASA,
16:39like what,
16:40Mr. Raska?
16:41Yes,
16:42okay,
16:43for ASA itself,
16:44I see,
16:45technically,
16:46also,
16:47moving,
16:48sideways,
16:49with an interesting buy range,
16:50at,
16:51690-715,
16:52so,
16:53ASA,
16:54in my opinion,
16:55when the trading is short,
16:56short,
16:57medium,
16:58with the trading range,
16:59690-715,
17:00the buying area,
17:01with the target area,
17:02profit taking,
17:03at level 895,
17:04for short,
17:05short,
17:06medium,
17:07and also,
17:08in terms of,
17:09what is it,
17:10we talk about valuation,
17:11also,
17:12ASA is quite interesting,
17:13still,
17:14price migration,
17:15but,
17:16the value is still,
17:17once,
17:18financial growth,
17:19also,
17:20ASA,
17:21still,
17:22relatively,
17:23what is it,
17:24positive,
17:25even though,
17:26in terms of income,
17:27the growth is relatively,
17:28what is it,
17:29going up and down,
17:30but,
17:31better than,
17:32in 2023,
17:33like that.
17:34Okay,
17:35in terms of sector,
17:36ASA,
17:37if I'm not mistaken,
17:38is in the transportation sector,
17:39Mr. Raska,
17:40yes,
17:41including the logistics transportation sector,
17:42like that.
17:43Okay.
17:44ASA,
17:45so,
17:46at the end of the year,
17:47the holiday season,
17:48for the transportation sector,
17:49or maybe related to logistics,
17:50the growth will be interesting,
17:51right,
17:52Mr. Raska?
17:53Yes,
17:54okay.
17:55So,
17:56if we talk about the transportation sector,
17:57indeed,
17:58prospectively,
17:59it looks interesting,
18:00yes,
18:01only,
18:02indeed,
18:03the challenge,
18:04in my opinion,
18:05moreover,
18:06moreover,
18:07to the people's spending,
18:08for,
18:09what is it,
18:10transportation,
18:11plus,
18:12also,
18:13the people,
18:14of course,
18:15already have a lot of
18:16challenges,
18:17so,
18:18what is it,
18:19for,
18:20increasingly,
18:21there are,
18:22but not as much,
18:23because,
18:24in my opinion,
18:25more to,
18:26what is it,
18:27logistics transportation,
18:28for the needs,
18:29what is it,
18:30distribution,
18:31like that,
18:32not more driven by,
18:33seasonal,
18:34yes,
18:35because the end of the year,
18:36like that.
18:37Okay.
18:38From ASA,
18:39we move to the brand,
18:40Mr. Raska.
18:41Yes.
18:42Okay.
18:43If the brand,
18:44of course,
18:45it's not interesting,
18:46I just see,
18:47more to,
18:48what is it,
18:49technical factors,
18:50because,
18:51this brand,
18:52movement,
18:53is also still consolidated,
18:54yes,
18:55with the prospect of the sector,
18:56what is it,
18:57geothermal,
18:58and also,
18:59the new energy,
19:00which in the long run,
19:01is still hoped for,
19:02and,
19:03this brand,
19:04is also still moving,
19:05what is it,
19:06consolidated,
19:07yes,
19:08in range,
19:09from my calculations,
19:10at level 6525,
19:11up to level 7650,
19:12yes,
19:13this is a fairly wide range,
19:14and,
19:15what is it,
19:16with the prospect,
19:17maybe we can go back to,
19:18the MSCI index,
19:19yes,
19:20for example,
19:21this is a long-term brand,
19:22of course,
19:23in terms of time horizon,
19:24yes,
19:25I suggest,
19:26this brand,
19:27gives us a fair price,
19:28at level 9250,
19:29like that,
19:30with,
19:31both areas,
19:32at level 6525,
19:33up to 6825.
19:34Okay.
19:35If we look at the gap here,
19:36from support,
19:37and also the resistance,
19:38this is quite far,
19:39yes,
19:40the target,
19:41is projected,
19:42reached,
19:43but approaching the resistance level,
19:44at,
19:45when,
19:46Mr. Praska,
19:47for your own brand?
19:48Yes,
19:49if I look at it,
19:50for,
19:51this year,
19:52not yet,
19:53approaching 9250,
19:54within a month,
19:55because,
19:56it can be said,
19:57this can also attract,
19:58ESG too,
19:59because the market is also quite large,
20:00yes,
20:01so,
20:02I think,
20:03in the future,
20:04at least,
20:05in the future,
20:06three months,
20:07three to six months,
20:08like that,
20:09quite short,
20:10in the middle.
20:11That's it,
20:12so,
20:13you can also follow,
20:14there are MPMX,
20:15PBRI,
20:16ASA,
20:17and also Brand.
20:18Then,
20:19we will update,
20:20first of all,
20:21about the movement of ESG,
20:22in the opening of C1 today,
20:23for ESG,
20:24strong momentum,
20:251.47%,
20:26at level 7150.586,
20:27top gainers,
20:28so far,
20:29there are ADARO,
20:30BBCA,
20:31Bang Mandiri,
20:32Bang BNI,
20:33Telkom,
20:34BRPT,
20:35AMMN,
20:36Gotoh,
20:37and also Brand.
20:38Meanwhile,
20:39top losers,
20:40there is PTRO,
20:41BBL,
20:42SGR,
20:43AYAM,
20:44VC,
20:45MKPI,
20:46VTNY,
20:47and CMNT.
20:48Okay,
20:49Mr. Praskar,
20:50just a brief analysis,
20:51about the movement of ESG,
20:52today.
20:54Yes,
20:55for ESG today,
20:56as I said earlier,
20:57indeed,
20:58ESG has a strong chance,
20:59CTNical is also supported,
21:00because it has been supported,
21:01at level 7056,
21:02and,
21:03ESG,
21:04has a chance,
21:05to rebound,
21:06with the target,
21:07Jakarta Panic's resistance,
21:08at the next level,
21:09for window tracing,
21:10up to level 7340,
21:11like that,
21:12and,
21:13today,
21:14also,
21:15only foreign investors,
21:16still have,
21:17a sharp continuation,
21:18with the selling pressure,
21:19starting to decrease,
21:20because indeed,
21:21if we look,
21:22compared to,
21:23data,
21:24released by PMI in China,
21:25PMI data,
21:26in the United States,
21:27indicates that,
21:28there is an alternative,
21:29a more interesting country,
21:30compared to Indonesia,
21:31making foreign funds,
21:32still continue to do,
21:33selling pressure,
21:34like that.
21:35So,
21:36we can expect,
21:37to do more,
21:38averaging,
21:39averaging down,
21:40on the selected stock,
21:41so, maybe,
21:42Samsung,
21:43has a cheap valuation,
21:44discounted,
21:45good performance,
21:46plus, if possible,
21:47dividend layer,
21:48like that.
21:49Alright,
21:50interesting analysis from you,
21:51hopefully can be a reference,
21:52and source of information,
21:53for market players,
21:54and,
21:55again,
21:56your decision,
21:57to invest today,
21:58becomes your decision,
21:59market players,
22:00or investors,
22:01out there,
22:02Mr. Praska,
22:03thank you,
22:04for joining,
22:05in MarketBus,
22:06success for you,
22:07always healthy,
22:08and,
22:09happy investing.