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00:00Basically, the juice is the same, minus 110, minus 112.
00:04There's really, honestly, not a lot of difference when you're talking about two cents in that
00:08spot.
00:09George, I'll start with you on this one, 111 and a half yards for Barkley.
00:14George, if you're just joining us, has made it sort of clear, just so everyone understands
00:18before you bet these, that George is leaning on Philadelphia to win the Super Bowl here.
00:23But does that mean, necessarily, that Barkley goes over this project?
00:26I don't think he has to go over for him to win it.
00:28I think if he does, they have won it, because that probably means they're killing time in
00:32the second half here.
00:33He's hit some big plays as well.
00:34But I don't think he has to get over this number.
00:37Listen, 80, I think 80 yards plus, they'll have a pretty good shot here.
00:42It's a small play on the over.
00:43I just don't think you're going to win money betting the under on this either.
00:46He's hit these big plays all season long.
00:48I do think, this is where the in-game betting comes in, by the way.
00:52I expect, at least in the first quarter, for the Chiefs to try and take him out or keep
00:56him in check.
00:58That safety is going to crawl down here, get in the box.
01:00You're going to see some eight-man boxes.
01:02If Hertz is going over the top and he's beating that kind of defense, they're going to have
01:05to back off.
01:06Then you can really have this number as things will open up for Barkley here.
01:09That's where the in-game betting comes in.
01:11Let's see what they do here.
01:12I said for Barkley, I think he's going to get it, but it's a smaller bet.
01:16It's not one of my bigger bets here.
01:18I do like his over 23 and a half for his longest run here, his anytime touchdown.
01:22One more Barkley bet I like a lot that we haven't discussed, 12 and a half receiving
01:26yards.
01:27I have to think he crushes this.
01:31I have to think that maybe that's part of the game plan here.
01:33If he can't run the ball, it's getting the ball out of the backfield.
01:35He will flip it out, pass it in the flat, and he'll get his yards that way here.
01:39I love that bet.
01:40All right.
01:41That's, by the way, currently 13 and a half on FanDuel.
01:43Joe, let me go back to you, and then Matt, same question here.
01:46Barkley, 111 and a half.
01:48Are you over or under this?
01:49Joe, I'll start with you.
01:50I'm going to go under this one, Craig, and I know that's probably going to surprise a
01:55lot of people because typically I'm over on the Saquon stuff.
01:57It's hard not to be because he's been so spectacular, but let's take a look at the second half of
02:01the season here for Barkley.
02:02He faced the Washington Commanders three times, a team that has struggled enormously against
02:06the run all season against everybody.
02:08Carolina Panthers were in that group, right?
02:10Another team you can run on them all day.
02:11The Dallas Cowboys, a team that basically effectively quit, he got 167 on them.
02:15And we all know the story about when Saquon faces the Rams, what happens, right?
02:18So all these numbers are really impressive.
02:21But if you dial back to week 15 and week 13 against two teams that are really good against
02:24the run, who are those teams, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, right?
02:27All year, good against the run, good up front.
02:29He was well under this number in both of those games.
02:32So I think it might be a little bit closer to that 100 century mark than it is getting
02:36into that 110.
02:37Now, of course, we know Saquon's capable of breaking one out there.
02:41But I think we have a weird sense here when we're looking at trends, but we're not looking
02:45close enough at the opponents in those trends.
02:47And I think that's something that we're not taking into enough stock where everybody's
02:50just automatic over, automatic over.
02:52I'm not.
02:53All right, Matt, do you have a play on this?
02:54Opinion at all?
02:55Yeah, absolutely.
02:56And it's a smart take by Joe, because if you just look at the game log, you'll see that
03:00he generally goes over this number.
03:02But you have to look at the quality of opponent.
03:04Two cents to the under isn't anything to sneeze at.
03:06It's telling you that that's the way it's going to go.
03:09So I'm leaning that way.
03:10But to marry what Joe and George said, maybe we can try to find all purpose yards, because
03:16I do believe that they're going to have to try to use Barkley just slightly differently,
03:19Kurt.
03:20All right.
03:21So we're seeing rushing attempts, 21 and a half on Barkley, heavy lean toward the over
03:27here at minus 124.
03:29Joe, the under is minus 105.
03:34And so the idea that Philadelphia goes into this game and competes is through Barkley's
03:41rushing attempts.
03:42If you've watched the Chiefs play at all this season, irrespective of how many yards Joe
03:48Barkley gets, the Chiefs play close games.
03:52That means Barkley still runs.
03:53He could have 21 and a half rushing attempts and only have 80 or 90 yards.
03:58Very possible in this game.
04:00I suppose that's why the lean is a little juicy on the over minus 124.
04:04Yeah.
04:05I mean, that Pittsburgh game, he had 19, right?
04:09So he was right around that number, but still was under.
04:12So you're talking about an opportunity here, even in the Baltimore game, where he was under
04:15that rushing total.
04:16He had 23 carries.
04:18So I do believe that you are looking at something where is probably going to be get Saquon the
04:23football here.
04:2420 plus attempts.
04:25I'm with George, though.
04:26I do think you got to get him the football out in space a little bit, too, especially
04:29if you start to struggle there up front with him.
04:31But I actually do think you're looking at the still on the under here.
04:35I think it's more like 19 or 20, I mean, 21 and a half.
04:38I mean, unless you're getting to an overtime situation, I think that's going to be trickier.