Lt. Gen. Kamal Davar (Retd), former Founder DG, Defence Intelligence Agency and President, Delhi Forum for Strategic Studies speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on political turmoil in Pakistan, Af-Pak hostilities and impact on India | SAM Conversation
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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor, to discuss the political
00:15turmoil in Pakistan, the hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and their impact
00:23on India.
00:24It is our pleasure to welcome Lieutenant General Kamal Dawar, an old veteran of both
00:33the 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars.
00:38He was, in fact, injured in the 1965 war.
00:42It's fortunate that he survived the injury and is with us.
00:48He retired from the army as the founding director general of the Defense Intelligence
00:55Agency and is currently the president of a new think tank, the Delhi Forum for Strategic
01:05Studies.
01:06Welcome to South Asia Monitor, sir.
01:13Thank you very much, the South Asia Monitor team and Colonel Alan Bhatt, for your invite.
01:25A lot has happened in the past year.
01:29I think the past year stands out for one as probably the worst for Pakistan in the decade,
01:42at least.
01:46And this time around, when the Afghani Taliban took charge of Afghanistan again, the scene
01:59was very different than it was the last time that they had, you know, taken charge of Afghanistan.
02:10A very major difference that turned out was that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the
02:19Afghan Taliban became very close and the Pakistan army started getting targeted fairly often
02:35and effectively by these two.
02:39And it's not only that, the Balochis of Balochistan, who have faced a lot of trouble from the Pakistan
02:53army for decades, their armed groups have targeted the Pakistan army.
03:04Sir, I'll begin by asking you, would you throw some light on the political turmoil
03:14in Pakistan that we've seen?
03:17It was, I think, some unprecedented and most unexpected scenes that we saw, you know, some
03:26years ago, when Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf PTI party ransacked the houses of some, you know,
03:38some very senior Pakistani army officers.
03:43Thank you once again, Anil and the South Asia Monitor team for your invite to share my thoughts
03:50on our errant Western neighbor, Pakistan, who was also born like us from the same womb of
03:57mother India, but has and continues to follow consistently a myopic, self-destructive policy
04:05vis-a-vis India, for really speaking, no benefit towards itself or the region.
04:11We all know the background of how India looms large in all of Pakistan's political and strategic
04:18formulations, and all Pakistan wishes to do is to seek an identity independent of India.
04:25That's fine.
04:26They are a sovereign nation, but they have totally discarded the vision, the inclusive and
04:32secular vision of their founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, and all of Pakistan's humongous problems,
04:39this is my view, can be attributed to the evil and selfish, you know, machinations of their deep
04:51state. And what is their deep state?
04:54It is the unholy trinity of the Pakistan army, the intelligence agencies, and the many terrorist
05:04regimes, which they have trained, funded, and of course, conceived to do all sorts of nefarious
05:11activities, which Pakistan today stands as a citadel of terrorism all across the world.
05:18It is not me or India saying so, it is the world which says so.
05:22And Mrs. Hillary Clinton made that famous statement in Pakistan that if you rear cobras in your
05:29backyard one day, they'll bite you.
05:32And today, if you look at the geopolitical situation in the region, exactly the same thing is
05:38happening. I wonder whether the Pakistanis will understand what they've been up to.
05:43Now, today, as you asked me about the current turmoil, let me come to that.
05:50You see, Pakistan, as luck would have it for them, is in the news for all the wrong reasons,
05:56politically, socially, economically, and grappling with countless serious problems in all
06:03fields of human endeavor.
06:05Its institutions are dysfunctional, and overall, its internal political stability status is
06:12fraught with danger.
06:14It is actually suffering an existential crisis, if I can use the word.
06:18The current problems, the current problems, we are not talking of the past, can be traced to
06:24Pakistan's former prime minister, the charismatic cricketer Imran Khan's dismissal from
06:31office in April 2022, ostensibly through a no confidence motion in the National Assembly,
06:40which I think everybody would agree was engineered backstage by the Pak army.
06:46For the once favorite of the army, Imran Khan fell from their grace.
06:50You see, no prime minister in Pakistan after the early 50s, when Ayub took over, can shy away from
07:00the army. They have to follow the dictates of the army.
07:03Democracy is just a farce and a facade.
07:08Now, in May 2023, Imran Khan was arrested on countless trumped up charges, and this led to
07:21as you also alluded to, serious and widespread lawlessness all over Pakistan.
07:27And even, you know, the ornate Lahore Corps commander's house, which you just mentioned, and
07:37some other governmental assets.
07:40And imagine the corps commander of Lahore, he's inside the high security Lahore
07:46cantonment, his house was burnt.
07:48Now, such lawlessness Pakistan had never witnessed before, never.
07:54Now, coming to now, political instability continues.
07:58And Imran Khan's Tariq-e-Insaf party workers, they do go into a rampage off and on.
08:06Now, all I would like to say is that till there is some political rapprochement between
08:12Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Khan's PML Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz, and Imran
08:19Khan's Tariq-e-Insaf party, but with the blessings of the all-Pakistan-Pakistan army, this
08:28grave political instability will continue to plague Pakistan.
08:33Meanwhile, Pakistan's economic wars need to be also brought out.
08:39It is facing a very, very severe financial crisis with its external fiscal debt rising to, if I'm
08:47correct, current figures, 123 billion dollars, with 78 billion dollars there to clear by the end
08:55of the year. And they barely have a little over a month's foreign exchange reserves to
09:01survive. You see the pitiful condition of the Pakistani people.
09:05Some of us did see in the Pakistan TV itself, you know, when the Eid took place last time, poor
09:12men, old people taking, you know, a bag full of atta or grain to their houses, they've been
09:19snatched away.
09:21So this is the unfortunate state of Pakistan, which I'm really surprised that the Pakistani
09:26deep state were having a ball in Pakistan.
09:29They've got huge lands, staying for five to seven star luxury.
09:34Their children and the grandchildren are studying abroad.
09:37When will they learn?
09:38Pakistan has to learn these lessons for themselves.
09:42Forget about India.
09:43They have to learn for themselves.
09:48Thank you, sir.
09:50You know, Afghanistan used to be considered as Pakistan's, you know, depth, strategic
10:02depth. Much has changed with the way the Taliban, Pakistan and the Afghani Taliban have
10:16been targeting Pakistan.
10:18I mean, how do you see this playing out?
10:22Right. Thank you.
10:23That's a very pertinent question.
10:26As we all know, for decades, you know, Pakistan has been striving towards its concept,
10:32ill-conceived concept of achieving strategic depth vis-a-vis India and Afghanistan.
10:37It's totally an inconceived concept.
10:39And if you look at currently, totally outdated and of no use.
10:44Now, the Taliban is in a second stint with power after the U.S.'s haphazard and ill-planned
10:52and hasty exit from Afghanistan in August 2021, has by now freed itself from the
10:59coattails of Pakistan and the ISI.
11:02The TTP is well aligned with the Taliban, that is the Tariq-e-Taliban Pakistan.
11:08It's well aligned with the Taliban and the TTP, as you know, has been attacking Pakistan
11:14army units and other assets of the Pakistan army and causing many casualties.
11:21Now, the Pakistani complains that the TTP derives a lot of strength from the Afghan
11:27Taliban and their logistics are well catered for inside Pakistan and their basis that it
11:33is TTP inside Afghanistan.
11:36Now, this problem for Pakistan, I feel is bound to continue and that is and that is why it
11:41is not fun. And the reason is that they're not finding much support inside Afghanistan.
11:47They had their warlords in the pocket in the earlier days.
11:51But now the Pakistani army is devoid of any support, any terrorist support inside
11:57Afghanistan. So what have they done?
12:00Amazingly, the Pakistan army is joined with the ultra fundamentalist and radical Islam,
12:07Islamic state in Khurasan, which we refer to as ISIK.
12:11Now, these elements, they're slowly gathering strength in Afghanistan and and they will
12:17try to ultimately spread towards South Asia.
12:20You know what they call the Khurasan province.
12:24The Taliban, fortunately, does not get along well with the ISIK.
12:30And India should thus remain in touch with Taliban regarding the nefarious activities of
12:35ISIK towards India and other nations of South Asia.
12:40And now, as you know, border skirmishes along the Durand Line, which is the border
12:45between Pakistan and Afghanistan, are also taking place.
12:48And only last month, the Pakistani Air Force carried out an aerial strike against terror
12:55elements inside Afghanistan, something which you which was unheard of in the
13:01Pak-Afghan relations.
13:02And nobody could imagine that the Pakistani Air Force will go for targets inside
13:08Afghanistan. Of course, the Afghanistanis too have retaliated against some ground targets
13:14in inside Pakistan.
13:17Now, another very major development there is that Balochistan, which, you know, there's
13:31a there's been a Chinese presence there.
13:34But before that also, they were suppressed.
13:37The Balochis were being suppressed very, very hard, you know, by the Pakistan army.
13:44And they've undergone a lot of suffering at the hands of the Pakistan army and a lot of
13:52exploitation. We know about Balochi armed groups that were active, but of late, they've
14:04been able to hit the Pakistan army pretty hard.
14:06How do you see this?
14:12And it is one more factor here is Gwadar, Gwadar, which is, you know, which is supposed
14:22to be a port of great advantage, is it's in a very, very pathetic state.
14:29It's been flooded, there's water crisis.
14:32And I invite your thoughts on this, sir.
14:40Yeah, you see, Balochistan was annexed by Pakistan in early 1948.
14:47Actually, people don't know this figure.
14:49Now, since then itself, there has been a simmering Balochi nationalism feeling among the
14:57Baloch people, as we all know, Balochistan is a mineral rich province in its southwest, which
15:07has the largest landmass, nearly, I think, if I'm figures are correct, 44 percent or so.
15:12But and the Pakistanis and you know, Balochistan is rich in gold, copper, many other
15:18minerals. But Pakistan has not ploughed back the revenues commensurate to Balochistan's
15:26size or the revenues generated by Balochistan itself.
15:31So naturally, the Balochi people have always felt like, you know, third rate citizens.
15:37And imagine that the Balochis are by and large Sunni Muslims, and yet they've been given a
15:42kick in the backside by the Pakistanis, which also goes to show that it is not only
15:47religion, which is the binding factor, but many other things itself.
15:52Now, the Baloch struggle for freedom has seen many ups and downs, sectarian, ethnic,
15:59separatist violence over the years has been escalating.
16:03You mentioned about the Gwadar port very quickly.
16:06Now, Pakistan is developing this with Chinese help in this province.
16:10And the Balochis have targeted Chinese workers in Balochistan.
16:16And in a Baloch attack in August last year, 73 people were killed when police stations,
16:23railway lines were attacked in 2024 itself last year, 383 soldiers and 925 fighters were
16:32killed. Now, that's a large number.
16:34Now, can you imagine in January this year, there have been two attacks on Pakistani units
16:40and just last fortnight, 18 paramilitary soldiers of the Pakistani Frontier Corps and 24
16:47Balochis were killed.
16:49Now, what as is widely known, Pakistan has been more than heavy handed, even with the
16:57peaceful protesters in Balochistan.
17:00Now, youngsters, able bodied personnel who are doing nothing but just going about their
17:06day to day tasks, they're picked up without reason and nothing is heard about them later.
17:12I feel, you know, that the Balochi people have made their mind to fight for their freedom
17:18and have now resorted to killing labor.
17:22Some people coming from the other provinces of Pakistan, they've established road
17:28blocks on the highways and all and they stop buses coming from Sindh or Lahore and
17:35see their identity cards.
17:36And if you're a non-Baloch, the Balochis are now paying back the other Pakistani people
17:42from other provinces in the same coin.
17:46This is to discourage non-Balochis coming to Balochistan and Balochistan, rather the
17:52Baloch people, have also targeted the Chinese a couple of times because they don't want
17:58the CPEC to come.
18:00And also they feel that if Gwadar comes and the Chinese will have a huge military presence
18:06and in any case, the employment will not come to the Balochi people, but it'll come to
18:11the other people of Pakistan, you know, mostly from Punjab, which I think perhaps would
18:17be a correct feeling.
18:18Then, you know, we've had some Balochis who, you know, come, visited India and we've
18:33heard from them how things have been.
18:37And now another very major change that's taken place is that the Afghani Taliban has
18:51started getting, you know, expressed very positive, made very positive moves towards
19:01India, which have been, you know, very positively replied back to the External Affairs
19:12Ministry. And with Mr.
19:14RK Mishra going there, I think there are the beginnings of a relationship which may be
19:24worth building upon, because here now comes, it's nothing like having the, the Afghans
19:32have always had a soft corner for Indians.
19:37Way back, it was the same country, the part of the same, that was a part of India also.
19:45We won't go into that, but certainly we remember the scenes that were seen as soon as the
19:56Taliban was cleared out from Afghanistan the first time.
20:04Hindi movies, you know, and a lot of a lot of Indian things started getting very popular
20:11in Afghanistan.
20:15However, the closeness between the Afghani Taliban with also the Iranians.
20:24That can be, how do you see this, sir?
20:28Yeah, and that's a very important, significant question you have asked and hinted at that
20:36how improvement in relations with the Taliban will help everybody in the region, maybe
20:43except Pakistan and China.
20:45You see, now India has warmed up to the Taliban in the last year or so.
20:49And India's latest diplomatic outreach to the Afghan Taliban government signals a very
20:55significant shift in how India sees the geopolitics taking shape in the region.
21:03You see, external affairs policies can never be static and should not be static.
21:11Now, after Kabul fell to the Taliban after the chaotic exit of the Americans from
21:16Afghanistan, India, let's say, did suffer a sort of diplomatic and strategic setback.
21:25And as is known, India and Pakistan, which you also alluded, have had civilizational and
21:30historical links. And no matter who was in power in Kabul, whether monarchy, whether
21:36so-called democracy, whether anybody else, India has been widely respected by the Afghan
21:41people for its generous developmental aid, as also its no-strings-attached humanitarian
21:49and development aid.
21:51Now, many landmark projects in Afghanistan, like the building of the new parliament, the
21:56hospitals, the dams, power infrastructure, schools, roads, and what have you, they've been
22:03built by India with no-strings-attached, no-strings-attached.
22:10Yeah, absolutely.
22:11And what has happened is that our aid by now, if my figures are correct, India's aid to
22:21Afghanistan has been to the tune of three billion US dollars.
22:25By now interacting with the Taliban administration in Kabul, what has India done?
22:31As an analyst all over the world have opined that we have granted de facto legitimacy to
22:40the Taliban. The Taliban has reached out to nearly 40 nations and is trying to establish
22:47the diplomatic and economic links with these nations.
22:52So far, as you would know, no nation has actually accorded them officially a diplomatic
22:58status to them.
22:59You know, there are various degrees of interaction with them, except China, who have
23:05posted a Chinese ambassador in Kabul.
23:07You know, as you know, the Chinese are off the starting blocks much faster than the
23:12others, which one should remember that.
23:15Overall, it's been a pragmatic step, I feel, to establish cordial relations with the
23:21Taliban government.
23:22Of course, Pakistan would be most unhappy as the development will dampen their terror
23:33activities to some extent against India.
23:37Now, in addition, India must endeavour to have an India-Iran-Afghanistan axis to
23:43encourage economic activities through the Chabar port, which you mentioned, and
23:48develop and develop road connectivity through Afghanistan and on to the Central Asian
23:55republics, to Russia and ultimately Europe.
23:58It will be for the regions good.
24:00So there's no denying it.
24:01Chabar port is important to us.
24:04We must sink in a little more money if it's required and ensure that the connectivity
24:11which will answer the Chinese CPEC and the border roads and sorry, and the you know,
24:17their ambitious CPEC project.
24:19We also must also indulge in this and, you know, ensure connectivity on to the Central
24:25Asian republics.
24:28So I'm glad you brought up Chabahar because that is a very major Indian effort there.
24:36There's a lot of work, a lot of development of Chabahar has been done by India.
24:43And in fact, this Dehlaram-Zaranj road, it's a road made by Border Roads.
24:53Border Roads Organization, absolutely.
24:55It was very, very sort of warmly received when it was completed.
25:05And this, I think, Chabahar should be able to provide, it will make a great difference
25:15to Afghanistan's economy, you know, by getting these road routes from Chabahar to the Central
25:28Asian republics, which you very pertinently mentioned.
25:35But this, I think, this triangular, our India coming close to Taliban and both India and
25:52Afghani Taliban teaming up with Iran, I think should be, you see this as a good counter
26:01to Pakistan.
26:02Pakistan?
26:04Absolutely.
26:04I've always believed, you see, Iran is a very strategic neighbor of ours.
26:11They've been also giving to us oil.
26:13And India is a very big country, we don't have to follow, you know, strategic autonomy,
26:18we've always adopted right from our inception of the Indian Republic.
26:23So if we are getting closer to the Americans, great.
26:28The point remains that if they tell us about Iran, or even for Russia, we have to just
26:33tell them, okay, old boys, you know, this is in our national interest, we're not interfering
26:38with any of your interests.
26:39And if we take oil from Russia, or from Iran, it is not going to, you know, bother you or
26:46hamper you or do anything contrary to your regional or global interests.
26:51So India must remain firm.
26:53And also, we must ensure some form of morality in international global politics.
27:03No doubt, sir, no doubt.
27:05We must remain, as we have in the past, remain firm on what is our interest in the region,
27:13you know, by all means, we must, you know, it's time we made the best of
27:20the relationship with the US, which with Mr. Trump, it is hoped will fetch us some,
27:30I mean, if he can get rid of that awful deep state that Mr. Biden had created,
27:40which has ruined Bangladesh to our great disadvantage.
27:47I mean, all this, one can only hope.
27:52Is there anything further you'd like to add, sir?
27:56No, as far as you see, I always wish to say that, you know, when we discuss in various
28:01seminars and all, that is there a way forward with Pakistan.
28:06And most people say, no, Pakistan is not going to change.
28:10And they're just not going to change.
28:11So we must give it to back, give them back to them 10 times over.
28:16But I feel that, you know, as the largest, the most powerful
28:22country in the South Asian region, in the Asian region, and an emerging global power,
28:28India must have broad shoulders and try to get them back on track.
28:32If they don't, and they indulge in any terror activities, then we will give it back to them
28:37in a very befitting manner.
28:39But however, India has to reach out to all nations in South Asia, in particular, our
28:46neighborhood.
28:47And now this Bangladesh crisis, which has come up, is of serious concern of ours.
28:55And of course, the Pakistanis and the Chinese, to some extent, well, not some extent, to a
29:02large extent, will try and, you know, initiate matters in the South Asian region.
29:07And we hope that we don't have now a third front to counter.
29:12So I would like to say that India must be, must get the South Asian neighborhood closer
29:20and harmonize them to, you know, for mutual benefit.
29:26Thank you very much, sir, for bringing a lot of very important points out.
29:34Thank you and all the best, sir.
29:37Thank you very much.
29:37My pleasure entirely.
29:40Good night.