Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh (Retd.), Distinguished Fellow, United Service Institute of India and Editor, Salute speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on implications of US initiating peace talks with Russia | SAM Conversation
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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:14Today our topic is U.S. Initiating Peace Talks with Russia.
00:21It is our pleasure to welcome Major General Jagatbir Singh, retired Distinguished Fellow
00:28United Service Institution of India and Editor, The Salute Magazine.
00:35Yesterday, 24th February 2025, marked three years of the Russo-Ukraine War, which began
00:51exactly on 24th February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine as part of an escalation of
01:04its earlier war, which began in 2014, considered as the largest and deadliest of conflicts
01:17in Europe since World War II.
01:21It has caused hundreds of thousands of military casualties, tens of thousands of Ukrainian
01:29civilian casualties and over the three years of this conflict, Ukraine has lost about 20%
01:40of its territory to the Russians.
01:44From a population of about 41 million, about 8 million are reported to be displaced and
01:56more than 8.2 million of Ukrainians have fled, resulting in the largest of refugee crisis
02:03since World War II.
02:08Russia always avoided any public condemnation of Russia for this conflict at a time when
02:16no nation helped India with urgently required weaponry.
02:23It was the USSR, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, also known as Soviet Union, which
02:34supplied up to 80% of our requirements for the army, navy and air force at political
02:43prices under the Treaty of Peace and Friendship and Cooperation, framed in 1971.
02:56Just as the Russo-Ukraine war was about to complete three years, the second time US President
03:07Donald Trump literally played his trump card by splitting with his European allies and
03:18not just refusing to blame Russia for its invasion but also shaking hands with Vladimir
03:26Putin with a view to stopping this war as a part of his attempt to get this war to stop
03:43and there seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel.
03:50General Jagatpeer, you are someone who has been following this for the last three years.
04:04From some brief comments about how and why it began and thereafter, whatever we can have
04:11from you, please.
04:12Good evening, sir.
04:13And firstly, I thank you very much for calling me to be part of this podcast by Sam.
04:22And it's indeed wonderful for me to be here present with you all and all your viewers.
04:27And I consider it a rare honor and privilege to be called to this platform to give my views
04:33on the Russia-Ukraine war.
04:35I call it, I say today that a turning point is visible.
04:40Now, as you rightly said, as we were approaching the third anniversary, the conflict today
04:46is at a turning point and a sign of that was the latest issue of The Economist magazine
04:53that shows a picture representative of the President of the US, Trump, with his back
05:00turned.
05:01So literally, as you said, he's turned his back on his European allies.
05:06Everyone thought at the beginning of the war that, you know, the problem was NATO expanding
05:11into towards Russia.
05:14And then people said in between that NATO's expanded by taking Norway and Sweden and other
05:19countries into their fold.
05:21And today, what you've seen is a complete reversal of US policy, that the first signs
05:27were visible on 12th February.
05:30And those signs were visible earlier when the election campaign was going on.
05:36At that time, President, I mean, that time he was not President, he was candidate of
05:39the Republican Party, former President Trump, he termed it as a ridiculous war.
05:46So no one could have imagined this sudden reversal, sudden turnabout.
05:51And today, literally, I say that NATO is facing its biggest existential crisis that it's faced
06:01because bulk of the funding for NATO was done by the United States.
06:08And constant refrain was that the European powers need to, you know, step up on their
06:13defense spending.
06:16Bulk of the things, people and resources were given by the United States throughout when
06:21they were confronting Soviet Union.
06:24But after the Cold War collapsed in 1991.
06:29And that's when the seeds of this whole thing started.
06:32You see, there are three ways of looking at it.
06:35Everybody the world over says this war started in 2024, Feb 2024.
06:40A Ukrainian will say it started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.
06:46But if you look back, as far as Russian imperialist designs, I won't even say Soviet Union, you
06:52know, get back to the Soviet Empire, I'll say Russian imperialist designs were that
06:58after 1991, they felt weakened because at that time, President Reagan at that time and
07:06a security advisor very famously made a statement that NATO will not expand that inch eastward.
07:12And then you've seen this steady expansion of NATO.
07:15And you've seen these agreements, which are all thrown to the winds, literally the Minks
07:19Agreement and all, where, you know, the nuclear weapons, which were Russian nuclear weapon
07:25station in Ukraine, they were removed.
07:28So I mean, Russia was looking at this, they've considered the Ukrainians as a Slavic people
07:36more aligned to them than to Western Europe.
07:39And they felt that the minute it was a red line for them, NATO getting into Ukraine.
07:45And they had one set of rules for Belorussia.
07:48And they wanted to apply the same set of rules as far as Ukraine goes.
07:54Maybe the war, since you asked me to talk a bit on this, initially, everyone thought
07:58when the war took place that, you know, it was perceived that it would be an overwhelming
08:03result in Ukraine's, in Russian's favor, they'll just go over, but go through, you know, Ukraine
08:10like a knife, hot knife through butter, that never happened.
08:16Thereafter, analysts felt that Russia would collapse because the sanctions imposed, the
08:22combined West, arming of Ukraine, and the support of the population, the losses you
08:29talked about, Russia apparently has lost 1,75,000 combatants, now that's a lot, that's about,
08:37you can imagine over three years, every month, how many they, it adds up to.
08:42So that's a lot, which losses which have taken place, but no one is sure of the exact figures,
08:47but there are large amounts of people who've been displaced, like you said.
08:51And apart from this, there are a large amount of fatalities, to the extent that Russia even
08:56had to get in, when the key, the inclusion into Kursk took place, they had to get in
09:02troops from North Korea.
09:05And I'm told that there are a large amount of troops who have been, suffered casualties
09:10there also, about one third of the North Koreans have suffered casualties.
09:13So that is the, today the West is divided, the first sign of that was, you know, as I
09:19said, during the election campaign.
09:21And after that, you had the comments of the Defense Secretary Peter Hesget on the 12th
09:28of February, when he spoke at a conference, a NATO conference, thereafter, you had the
09:34Vice President, literally showing a mirror to Europeans at the Munich Security Conference.
09:42And the latest thing is, I mean, that the West was even divided on the language of the
09:49statement to be brought out on to mark the third year, which was yesterday by the G7.
09:55And the resolution, which was to be passed in the UN General Assembly, and I'm not talking
10:01about the Security Council, in the General Assembly, against condemning this invasion
10:07of Ukraine, Russia, US, North Korea, and Iran, were the three countries, I mean, were
10:19amongst the 18 countries, four of them, which voted against it.
10:23Now just see, which are the countries, how things have changed so fast.
10:27India of course, has been consistent in its stance and it abstained.
10:31So you had countries like France and UK and all, you know, Germany, they voted for it.
10:3893 voted for it, 18 against and 65 abstained, including India, China, and Brazil.
10:44So all the BRIC countries, except for Russia, abstained.
10:49So look at the changes that have taken place in world geopolitics.
10:54It's something that nobody could have imagined.
10:57No analyst imagined it, none of the analysts imagined it.
11:00I've listened to numerous analysts from, you know, various think tanks of the US, nobody
11:06even, in fact, even today, the language is that, you know, the opposite, that it's basically
11:12pro-Ukrainian thing, the narrative which is coming out.
11:17So I mean, this nobody could imagine.
11:19So as I said, and there have been attritional conflicts, marginal gains have taken place.
11:27And as you rightly brought out, sir, economies of both countries are suffering.
11:32Ukraine has been damaged to a large degree, there are immense amount of casualties and
11:40President Trump promised to end the war.
11:43And he's, after being sidelined throughout by President Joe Biden, he, I mean, nobody
11:49will talk to Putin and all that.
11:52Today what happened?
11:53Zelensky has been called a dictator.
11:58And President Trump has spoken on a 90-minute conference call with President Putin to try
12:05to resolve the thing.
12:07And following that conversation, see how fast things move.
12:11Within three to four days, there have been negotiations which took place, not in a European
12:16country, because there's no European country which is neutral, except for Switzerland.
12:21So where did the negotiations take place in Riyadh?
12:25And who was there at the negotiations?
12:27The people present at the negotiations were the Americans, represented by the Secretary
12:32of State, by the NSA, by Stephen Wilcox, who's the person in charge of Middle East, his envoy.
12:40And Lavrov was there.
12:42So that's the level.
12:44So the talks are, look at the number of different talks taking place.
12:49There are talks in Riyadh to end the war.
12:51European leaders have met separately.
12:53And at the General Assembly, you have a vote talking to end the war.
12:56So there are three parallel things going on.
13:02It's really a bunch of surprises, you know.
13:06But going back three years ago, you know, it was, one clearly remembers that there were
13:14enough of warnings that were issued by Vladimir Putin that look, don't, don't get into this
13:23NATO, you know, don't get, get into them.
13:29But Vladimir Zelensky was, was, was bent, was evil.
13:36He had, he was seeing his own, you know, what he thought was a very bright side.
13:43And this carried on the way, the way this man has, you know, allowed his country to
13:51get, you know, so badly bashed up.
13:55Just because there's a host of NATO countries, which are supplying him with weaponry.
14:04Entire NATO was supplying him with weaponry.
14:09You know, when you look back at, one is not, one is not trying to, I don't want to sound
14:15like a moralist, but now when you look back at Biden's tenure, look at what he's achieved,
14:22what he, what he's done for the, for the Americans.
14:25Yes, you're absolutely right, as far as your comments are concerned, sir, there's no doubt
14:34of what has happened.
14:35The red lines were visible and, but no one thought that Russia would, you know, cross
14:39because slowly America, the West has been crossing multiple red lines and taking many
14:46other countries under the umbrella of NATO.
14:50And today I'd say there's even a divide between Eastern Europe and Western Europe, because
14:57Western Europe has the money, they have the resources, but they're spending less on defence
15:02because they feel less threatened, whereas Eastern Europe, it is totally the opposite.
15:09As far as Eastern Europe is concerned, they're spending more on defence and they are worried
15:13about their borders with Russia, which, you know, so Poland is one country, but at the
15:20contrary, when you look at it, how many of them are actually willing to put boots on
15:24the ground?
15:26That was something that was missing.
15:28So rightly saying, and if we go back into history, we're all aware of all the revolution
15:34that took place there, the removal of presidents and how Zelensky came into power and what
15:39happened.
15:40I think let's not go there.
15:41So let's talk about the future.
15:42What about the negotiations?
15:43What's going to happen?
15:44How's that going to take place?
15:45What do you know?
15:46How can you resolve issues which are incompatible collisions of reality?
15:55Everybody has their own take on this.
15:58So where will you come to a common meeting ground, sir?
16:01According to some reports, there seems to be, Zelensky is sort of actually feeling the
16:13pinch now because there are statements being attributed to him, you know, should I step
16:20down or, you know, may even accept a part of his country being, never know what comes
16:34out in the next few days, literally.
16:37But all we can be very thankful about is that I think there is a, I think we can say the
16:46beginning of the end is approaching, you know, and as far as India is concerned, it's a kind
16:54of a vindication that we remained neutral as a military man and we are both from the
17:07armoured corps. We both used the T-series of Russian tanks, T-54s, T-55s, which we needed
17:21very badly in 1971.
17:24And then later, those of us who used their equipment, which we got very timely, there's no
17:36denying a soft corner, well, that's, I won't go to more than that, you know, into personal
17:46opinions. But the fact remains that as a country, we remained, you know, quite consistently
17:53neutral. And I think it was very significant when Mr. Narendra Modi said, I'm on the side of
18:05peace. He put that, that one, you know, statement of his stands out.
18:16Jagatvir?
18:17You cover a lot of ground, sir, so I'll go over each issue separately and little slowly, sir.
18:25The first issue is the ceasefire talks which have started and preceding the talks, very
18:32important statement was given out by the Secretary of Defence for the US, when he
18:37categorically said that it is very difficult and he said it's unrealistic for Ukraine to get
18:45back the territory that has been captured or lost.
18:49The second issue, which he said, which I feel was more important than the first issue, was
18:54the first issue everybody in their minds had felt and yes, that is there.
18:59Second issue is when he said that there's no question of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO.
19:09Now, that's a huge, huge step.
19:11And the third issue, he said that even if anybody positions their troops in NATO for
19:16anything, Article 5 will not apply.
19:19So you've seen in one stroke, in one day on 12th of February, how the matrix changed
19:26completely. So that's one thing.
19:28And now when the talks took place, I've been reading about that.
19:33Three other things have been said.
19:35I mean, everybody is going to focus on, you know, rebuilding how this ceasefire will take
19:40place. What are the security guarantees?
19:42And when I think when President Putin said that, you know, he's a dictator, he never won
19:47election. He, President Zelensky, in two steps, threw the last card he had.
19:53He said, in that case, I'm willing to resign, but give me NATO membership.
19:57Now, surely NATO membership doesn't hinge on his being president or not being president.
20:03Irrespective of who is president of Ukraine, President Putin will, I mean, Russia will
20:10not see X or Y or Z as the president of Ukraine and membership for NATO.
20:16I mean, so I mean, that's, I call it like almost like a red herring being thrown there.
20:22So that's one thing.
20:23So this alternative of NATO membership were discussed earlier, but with the American
20:31statement brought out and the way they talked in the summit in Munich and, you know,
20:38Munich, of course, they never touched it, but the earlier summit and after that, I think
20:42they're totally ruled out.
20:43And in fact, now what I've been given to understand is that we focused, one of the
20:49issues discussed in the talks was, you know, restoring the embassy staff between US and
20:54Russia back to the earlier levels, creating a high level team for negotiation and
20:59exploring ways to, you know, strengthen economic cooperation.
21:03So what they're hinting at is Russia wants, naturally, they want the sanctions lifted.
21:08So if the sanctions are lifted, that's swift, which was that, you know, financial
21:13currency, stopping the financial currencies from being transferred to each other.
21:19That will go. There'll be part and parcel of the, you know, globalized world order
21:25again, as far as trade goes.
21:27So, I mean, these are huge things.
21:29And he, President Putin is going to get his, demand his pound of flesh.
21:38Now, a lot of people have talked of how do you ensure security guarantees?
21:42One of the things people said is the best security guarantee, apart from peacekeeping
21:47troops, is to say that Ukraine will become a member of NATO.
21:52And if they violate it, then Ukraine can be taken as a member of NATO.
21:56Now, US has negated that.
21:59Next, without US support, how long can Ukraine last?
22:04What are the percentage of weapons?
22:06What is the percentage of money being pumped in by US?
22:11All these long range missiles, the air defense systems, a lot of them are from US.
22:17Today, he'll, earlier President Biden had denied certain targets by him and all to be
22:23used. Today, he'll stop supplying those systems.
22:27Then what happens? How much ammunition do they have?
22:30We all know how ammunition is calculated, how they come in.
22:33Say if your chain goes for that, I think maximum couple of three to six months is what
22:39the reserves they'll have.
22:41And how do you encounter that?
22:43How do you overcome that?
22:45So this is something which I've talked about.
22:47The next thing is, how do you enforce the peace?
22:51Who's going to, who will do that?
22:53Who's going to ensure?
22:55The biggest problem for Ukraine is security guarantees.
22:59So what sort of security guarantees can be done?
23:06Now, Prime Minister of Britain, the UK Prime Minister, he said we'll be willing to
23:12provide peacekeepers.
23:14We'll be willing to do this.
23:15Earlier, France had offered.
23:17Now, France is not that keen and Poland has ruled it out.
23:21So, I mean, somebody has to come in.
23:23And today, President Putin has categorically said or the Russians have categorically said
23:29that any peace, any forces from a NATO country will be seen as an infringement of the
23:39NATO, you know, on our soil.
23:41So, I mean, on Ukraine's soil.
23:43So, I mean, that's an issue that people have to think of.
23:47So the next issue you raise, sir, is the most important one, and that is India's stance
23:55during the war and how the implication of this will affect India.
23:59So you very correctly said that India, our Prime Minister said this is not a era for
24:08war. So I've said that India has been consistent in its stand throughout.
24:14And we've always focused on dialogue and diplomacy.
24:18We've held a balanced position.
24:20And our Prime Minister has visited both Kiev and Moscow.
24:23He's engaged with both the leaders.
24:25We also, like you talked of, you know, tanks coming from Russia.
24:31Yes. But part of our equipment came from Soviet Union and the Soviet Union defense
24:37industrial complex is scattered.
24:39And a large part of that was in Ukraine, some portion of that.
24:44Yes. So we've got our aircraft from there, our AN series of aircraft came from there,
24:49the AN-32.
24:50But that's one thing.
24:52The overall of the AN-32 has also been delayed because of this.
24:56But apart from that, we also get all the gas turbine engines for our ships from there.
25:01So we get a lot of engines from there.
25:03And two of those facilities were hit by Russian missiles.
25:07So we've had disruptions in our supply chain.
25:09So then you have disruptions as far as your spares go.
25:13For almost 10 years, for almost 10 years after the breakup of USSR, we had, you know,
25:22this thing, a crisis of spares.
25:26Absolutely. Which has again taken place now.
25:29But, you know, so that was something that is known, everybody knows, because will they
25:34give other countries spares or will they focus on their own thing?
25:37So and when a facility gets damaged, that trade, it takes time to rebuild it.
25:43So that's one thing. Other thing is that look at the economic downside of the whole
25:47thing. We've been accused by the West of getting oil from Russia at cheaper prices.
25:54That's there.
25:55But the cost of fuel, because of the tension, the cost of fuel has gone up, fertilizer has
26:01gone up, food has gone up.
26:02So as a result, inflation has gone up.
26:04As a result, currencies have fallen.
26:07And you've seen the result of the Indian currency weakening on the stock market.
26:13So, I mean, it's all a cascading effect.
26:15So as far as I'm concerned, I feel the best news is to stop this war.
26:21No military person wants war.
26:23But the problem is how you can resolve the differences which are so deep rooted.
26:28And I personally feel that, though I've always maintained that the two countries who can
26:34stop this war are US and Russia.
26:36There's no third country.
26:38But for them, but for this, I always maintain that Ukraine should be part of that
26:44negotiation. So you may like to sideline European powers, but you cannot afford to not
26:50have Ukraine as part of the negotiation.
26:53So that's why I think.
26:55But what stands out, sir, because of all this is the way today the US has changed track
27:03from one side to the other or reversed its position.
27:07And suddenly you said, surprised.
27:10I'll admit that the Europeans were shocked.
27:14They were shocked. It was almost a sense of disbelief in most European capital.
27:19And that disbelief is carrying on in the analysts, you see.
27:23So what does it show you?
27:24That today you have to have your own capability to stand on your own feet.
27:28You must have developed your own hard part because anybody can, if you're too dependent on
27:34somebody, they can, what if they choose a point and a time to discard you when you're most
27:40vulnerable? So I mean, that's something that needs to be seen and something that we must
27:45look at, sir. So for India, as I said, our multi-alignment policy.
27:49I must say, sir, that this is something that has been extremely successful and we must, you
27:56know, compliment the way we have carried out, walked the tightrope, as somebody said.
28:02We again abstained from the vote today.
28:05So we never took any side again.
28:07And dialogue, I said, and also another issue that nobody talks of much is that, you know,
28:14we couldn't afford to take any other stance because if we had taken a very pro-Western and US
28:20stance, Russia would have gone closer to China.
28:23And for us, a close alliance between China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, that has got far more
28:32damaging consequences for India.
28:35We have to have Russia on our side.
28:37As you said, we've got old friendship, deep friendship.
28:41They've supported us in 1971 war and they've been constantly by our side.
28:47We also had a problem back to this defence exports.
28:52You know, the problem with the S-400.
28:55So the Americans were going to put CAATSA against us.
28:57We got out of that. But now that fear is not there, sir.
29:01So, you know, I think we need to end this Russian alienation, sir, and that removal of the
29:10sanctions. And that's extremely important.
29:12So, I mean, this is a very tricky time the world is in.
29:19But as you said, there's some ray of hope that is there, sir.
29:22I hope things work out and I hope things work out well as far as the conflict is concerned,
29:30sir.
29:36Put it across very relevantly and very clearly.
29:41Whatever it is, I think there is no denying that Donald Trump needs to be thanked for
29:54all it whatever is literally his trump card.
29:58But something which he had, he showed that he had the guts to do.
30:04There's so much this man was, you know, facing.
30:08He's headstrong and he's, you know, whatever it is, all we can do is hope and pray that
30:17this war is, you know, effectively ended.
30:23Period.
30:25Absolutely right, sir.
30:26You know, all wars end sometimes, all wars end sometimes, but the manner in which they
30:32end is important because the ending determines the peace that is to follow.
30:38Both World War II and Cold War charted a new course as far as the security architecture
30:44of Europe and the world is concerned.
30:46So let's see.
30:48I think there's a new security architecture being unveiled now and we'll see it as it
30:52comes at the end of these talks.
30:55And hopefully, you know, the complexities of this conflict preclude a very quick solution.
31:01But regardless of the outcome of the negotiation, you know, the war in Ukraine has
31:06already changed the character of conflicts to a great degree.
31:10So but that's entirely a different issue.
31:12So we won't get into that part.
31:15Countries have to adapt to the new realities and the main credibility of the global
31:21leaders and the policymakers today will be on how soon this conflict ends.
31:28And unfortunately, no conflict has a fit all settlement.
31:32That means everybody is there.
31:34But the lessons of a fruitless war, you know, and like you brought up the damage and all,
31:41can ensure that, you know, we have more of a lasting peace.
31:45But what is the acceptable end is, you know, leaves a lot of scope for the correct
31:54definitions as far as, you know, acceptable end for one may be something, acceptable end
31:59for Europe may be something, for Russia may be something, for U.S.
32:04may be something. But for bulk of the countries around the world, the acceptable end, the
32:08start point is the war must end.
32:10So this conflict must end and peace must come back.
32:15So that's what I have to say, sir.
32:17And once again, I thank you very much for calling me here to present my views.
32:23No, it was very, very nice hearing all that you put across.
32:27Thank you. All the best.
32:31Thank you, sir.