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#Indian Elections #Modi #Congress
Follow Gulf News' for special coverage and analysis of the Indian Elections 2019.
#Indian Elections #Modi #Congress
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00:00Good evening and welcome back to the live coverage of the Indian elections from Gauk News.
00:08Today has been a landmark day, especially with the sweep of the Indian ballot box that the BJP-led government has done,
00:20and which has led to the very critical question that why has Congress failed so badly?
00:27With me here today are panelists Sanjeev Das, Bobby and Shyam.
00:32And we are going to try and answer this question to some extent for our viewers.
00:37So Sanjeev, looking at the election process and the analysis and the results that have come in,
00:42why do you think that the Congress has done this badly?
00:46And the Mahagad Bandhan has failed so disastrously?
00:50To start with, Anupa, I honestly believe that this time the campaign that Rahul Gandhi ran in particular,
00:56I thought it was quite alright. He did a fairly good job, I should say.
01:00But unfortunately it didn't translate into votes for various reasons.
01:04But primarily what I think has really hit Congress hard are two things.
01:08First of all, it lost the battle of optics in which BJP and Modi are really masters of the game.
01:15And secondly, the other thing which has happened in India is I think the Hindu vote
01:19has consolidated very decisively behind one party and that's BJP.
01:23So these two factors have hit Congress hard and Congress didn't have a strategy to counter it really.
01:29Though they tried their best to run a very good campaign and Rahul Gandhi, I think he really worked hard.
01:34But for his defeat in Ameti, I think by and large he did his part well, he played his role.
01:39But Congress didn't get the optics right, Congress didn't find enough alliance partners, I should also say.
01:45And it goofed up with its seat-sharing strategy in many places like in Delhi, in UP.
01:50They didn't get their act together. So I think these are the factors which really help BJP to get the kind of seats they have got.
01:56And especially in Ameti and one of the standing complaints against the Congress has been that,
02:01yes, you were in power for so many decades and you haven't done much.
02:05So how can you judge the BJP in five years? What would you say to that?
02:09See, I mean, you know, I can talk about Ameti a little later, but what I will say just to what Sanjeev was saying,
02:18you know, Rahul Gandhi made a number of tactical mistakes in this.
02:23One, he was trying to do too many things. He was trying to build his party, he was trying to launch the career of his sister,
02:31you know, and at the same time he was trying to compete with regional players.
02:38So it doesn't work like that. I mean, you know, building a party in a state where you don't exist,
02:44I mean, the last chief minister you had was in the 90s, and then you are trying to compete with people who are well-established
02:51and capable of challenging Modi. What you have done is, you know, ended up damaging them big time
02:59by not agreeing to a seat-sharing formula with the Mahagadwanda, which was Samajwadi Party,
03:09Bahujan Samaj Party in RLD. And secondly, so that did a lot of damage to the alliance.
03:20And second was launching Priyanka Gandhi in the middle of, you know, election season.
03:25You know, I am going to elaborate more in the newspaper tomorrow, but, you know, just to give you a short reply,
03:33she did cause a lot of damage to the alliance because it's the same wood bank, you know.
03:41And then elsewhere also, did Congress behave like a big national party? No, it didn't.
03:51For example, I know that, you know, dealing with Arvind Kejriwal can be, I mean, you know, he is a very tough man to deal with.
04:01He himself was behaving like a national party. He was trying to have an alliance with Congress in
04:09Haryana, in Punjab, in Himachal and elsewhere, you know.
04:14But I think Congress could have somehow worked out this deal in Delhi. All these seven seats, I am hundred percent sure that
04:23that would have gone, you know, either for the Amadhi party or Congress if these two parties had an alliance in place.
04:32You know, these are small, small mistakes that Congress has made. A series of mistakes.
04:38Whether it's arrogance, whether these are tactical mistakes, I think that, you know, the party, Rahul Gandhi himself said that
04:45they are going to discuss this in the CWC in the coming days, hopefully, and they will learn a lesson.
04:53Because I don't see, Anupa, that any, you know, big lessons were learned since 2014. You had 44 seats in 2014.
05:04Now you may have 51 or 52 seats. That is just a growth of seven seats in five years. Come on, you know.
05:13So what do you say to that, Shyam? They are saying that it's primarily due to the fact that Congress kind of innate sense of arrogance,
05:22lack of proper planning and proper grassroots functioning. But the South has shown differently.
05:29But Tamil Nadu has got nothing to do with the Congress and the other elements also have worked differently. But they have done well in Kerala.
05:40Actually, the whole thing works differently in Kerala. I mean, the dynamics is completely different.
05:46In Kerala, there are two factors there in favor of Congress. One is the anti-incumbency factor, where the Marxists are in power.
05:55So, the anti-incumbency factor plays there. BJP is in power in Delhi. That's another anti-incumbency factor.
06:01Plus, one thing Congress got it right in Kerala was to get Rahul Gandhi there. Because what actually that did was to galvanize the entire state.
06:14So, you look at 19 seats, it is mind-boggling. Out of 20, you lost one seat. The only time it happened before was in 1977, which is following the emergency.
06:25That is an entirely different set of conditions. These are totally different conditions here. So, what Congress managed to achieve here was to get 19 seats easily,
06:34which means, add that 19 seats to the national capital, which means they have 19 easy seats there. So, in that way, bringing Rahul Gandhi to Kerala, to Wayanad,
06:45I know they took a lot of flak for bringing him to Wayanad, but it worked wonders for the Congress in Kerala and it showed.
06:52So, why do you think they were not able to replicate that in the other states across the country?
06:57See, one thing, you know, sorry, I'll just try and answer that question is, to me, one thing that comes to my mind again and again is that I think Rahul Gandhi
07:11pushed his luck with that slogan, Chowkida Chor Hai, too much. One, it was overused. He used it in every interview, every press conference, every speech.
07:24And I think that is what, you know, once you start using a slogan again and again, again and again, then, you know, you lose the punch.
07:33You know, that is one thing which he made a mistake. And second mistake he made was, when you attack somebody as powerful as Narendra Modi,
07:45if you call him Chor, then people, you know, people of India, they don't like this kind of attack, these kind of personal attacks.
07:57Why? One, you know, we still have that culture of respecting elderly people, people, you know, and especially he's a prime minister, you know.
08:06So, even those people who were not exactly BJP supporters may have sympathized with Narendra Modi because of this attack.
08:15Sorry, just to interrupt you, what do you say to that? Because you were saying something earlier.
08:20Yeah, well, why it worked in Kerala and why it didn't work elsewhere. Kerala is a different whole set of, like I said earlier, the dynamics is different.
08:28Look at, first and foremost, it's one of the most literate states in India. That also translates into political awareness.
08:35People are, the political consciousness is very high. If you look at the voting percentage here, 77.63 is the percentage of people who turned up to vote.
08:44The highest in 30 years. That means people take care of their vote seriously. So, which means they come and vote, not just take their vote seriously, they want to vote to the right person.
08:56So, you look at BJP's…
08:59So, I'm sorry, Isham, is that then a result of the behavior of the voter or because the Congress has actually done…
09:09No, this is more to do with the voter than the Congress because over the years, if you look at, Kerala's voting percentage has always hovered near 70, always.
09:19The lowest would be somewhere near 60, but if you take an average, it would be just below 70. So, that is the voter's…
09:27So, kind of code of conduct, so to speak. Then coming back to Sanjeev, so does that mean that, like you said earlier…
09:34What Isham said, I found it quite interesting in the sense that, Isham, in fact, I would like to ask you, like, is this whole episode which has happened in Kerala, Congress winning so many seats, is it also part of that revolving door syndrome that, you know, the left is in power, Congress does well, vote them in, again the left does well and comes back to power?
09:52So, is Kerala warming up to a change of government as such?
09:55Yes, it could well be because Kerala always has this revolving door thing of governments because if you give a government a long run, there is more chance for…
10:05To be voted out.
10:06Yeah, not just voted out, you become complacent. Like every time a new government comes, okay, they try and do better because they want to get re-elected.
10:14Second, another thing is, if you, off late, if you look, the last few elections or at least three, four elections, if you look back, Kerala always tend to vote the Congress to the centre because Marxists are not much of a force in the last decade or so, hardly been a force in the centre.
10:30So, there is no point in sending Marxists to a centre and they will not do anything for the state. So, whereas, if you add to the Congress tally and if Congress happens to form a government, it will always help the state.
10:41Right.
10:42So, that is why…
10:43So, it was a kind of strategic move by the state.
10:46Yeah.
10:47So, which comes back to the same question is, do you feel that there was a disconnect between the Congress manifesto for a national level election and what Modi kind of…
11:01To give credit to them, and I had a chance to glance through the manifesto, it was one of the best document they have produced in the…
11:10Yeah, but was it suitable for a national election manifesto?
11:13It was.
11:14Did they get the strategy wrong?
11:15It was.
11:16It was.
11:17It was.
11:18It had everything.
11:19They had promised that they are going to fill up almost 2.4 million vacancies in government departments, federal government departments.
11:25Job creation.
11:26No, yeah, job creation.
11:28Meaning, there are vacancies already, you know, these can be quickly filled up and they said that they can do it by September.
11:35Then, they talked about job creation.
11:38Then, they talked about direct payments to the poor people, a payment of almost, how much was it, 7000…
11:4972,000.
11:5072,000.
11:51And per year.
11:52Per year.
11:53Per person.
11:54Per person per year.
11:5520% of the poorest of the poor, you get that.
11:57Till their monthly income increases to 12,000 per month, you know, so that the plan was to give it for 5 or 12 months.
12:03Oh, welfare system.
12:04Welfare system, you know.
12:05Now, this is an amazing thing.
12:07But what I have heard from journalists on the ground, there was very little publicity about it.
12:14The people on the ground didn't know about it, you know.
12:17It was called Nyaya, meaning justice, but hardly anybody was talking about it.
12:22So, that means that, you know, the communication strategy of Congress was very, very poor in terms of its manifesto.
12:28So, while you came out with a very nice document, people didn't know about it.
12:32So, it's like an impact of very poor campaign management, so to speak.
12:38Yeah, you can say that.
12:39I mean, you can say that.
12:40See, it's how do you reach to the last, the BJP has come up with this term, they call it the last mile voter.
12:48You know, the voter who has, who doesn't watch television, he has no subscription of newspapers, his mobile data is erratic,
13:01sometimes he uses, sometimes, so he is not online all the time.
13:04So, how do you communicate to him? I mean, that is one thing that BJP has mastered this technique, you know, in recent years.
13:13And because Congress does not have an effective system in many many states, especially in Uttar Pradesh,
13:20so they have failed in their communication strategy.
13:25And I think, while Rahul Gandhi was, what, trying to do is trying to build his party during the elections,
13:31I think this is the time when he should start building his party for the next five years, if he wants to remain a serious player in India, you know.
13:39So, his work starts today.
13:41Today, of course, you know.
13:43So, in a way, earlier you mentioned communion politics and then now you look at campaign management.
13:51So, what has India voted truly? Has India truly voted communal lines?
13:56Because you also had statements with some people saying that, you know, Congress has also peddled, in some measure, soft Hindutva.
14:05That point has always been there.
14:09Like Congress peddling soft Hindutva, Congress towing the secular line, so-called secular line.
14:14And BJP going, you know, more nationalist.
14:17But what I honestly feel is that in this particular election, I think for the first time, India has definitely voted along communal lines
14:25and there has been a very firm consolidation of the Hindu vote, which probably didn't happen at this scale ever before.
14:32I think that has worked in BJP's favour.
14:34And secondly, as Bobby was saying just a few minutes back, you know, the optics which comes so very naturally with Narendra Modi and his brand of politics,
14:43I think that has also worked in BJP's favour.
14:45The public relations.
14:46Exactly. I mean, we really don't know how many of those Swachh Bharat toilets have water, you know.
14:52And yet we say, okay, he has built so many toilets for the rural poor.
14:56This is something, this is the battle of optics that Congress has actually lost out to BJP.
15:01And when they tried to beat Narendra Modi to it, they were actually poor finishers.
15:05They really couldn't match up to his standards.
15:08And I think that is where, you know, the cookie crumbled for the Congress.
15:12So, I hear two things. One is campaign management, public relations and more than anything else, the Hindu vote.
15:19So, how do you think the Congress can and should counter this if they expect, like you said, to be a serious player in the next round?
15:28You know, Anupa, I am, after the results, I am worried about one thing here.
15:33If you look at the, if you recall how the media had reported this election,
15:38the two things that they were coming up again and again, they highlighted was one,
15:45that the Muslims are now this time going to vote with the Gatbandhan, for example, in Uttar Pradesh.
15:52And that the Dalit voters are also consolidating and going towards the Gatbandhan.
15:57So, Modi has the upper caste voters, upper caste Hindu voters and the OBCs.
16:03Now, my fear is that since 2014, what happened was that kind of the Muslim voter was politically marginalized.
16:13Meaning, his vote was simply not required. Because you had a majority without expecting the Muslim voter.
16:21Now, in 2019, I think this is going to take another step forward, which means that nobody requires the Dalit vote as well.
16:33You know, because the story that the media has tried to tell is, Dalits and Muslims and some backwards are consolidating in favor of a ganging up against Modi.
16:45So, it's become like caste politics. Exactly. So, now, Modi is going to become the Prime Minister again.
16:51And apparently, he has won it without Muslims, without Dalits and without some backwards.
16:56This, I think, is not good for India. Not, I think, this narrative needs to be deconstructed.
17:04I think the Congress especially and the opposition parties, they need to sit and analyze where they have gone wrong.
17:12And whether the communities that they thought where they treat, where vote bank, you know, why they have decided to switch over to Modi, if they have.
17:25And I think this, if they don't learn a lesson today, I think they will have no place in tomorrow's Indian politics.
17:35It's for sure. These parties will become history. So, is this fear for the minorities?
17:42Let's see. I am not going to jump to the conclusion. I am not going to… Because the first tweet that Modi sent out included, I think,
17:50Puneel, almost for the first time, I have heard him use, inclusive India.
17:55Yeah, see, you know, as far as Modi is concerned, Modi has said these things before also.
18:07When he went, when he won 2014, even before he won, he said, sabka saath, sabka vikas. You remember this line.
18:14Yeah, now he has added sabka vishwas. Okay, fine. Okay, fine. I think to gain that confidence, to gain that vishwas, I think he has to work the talk.
18:24First of all, his own party cadre, his own party leaders, you know, they have to be told to reduce their rhetoric, you know,
18:39bring it down a couple of notches. That has to be done. That this muscular Hindu nationalism is not good for today's India.
18:49But we have voted a Pragya Thakur, right? We have. And remember, Mr. Modi said that he is not going to forgive her, you know…
18:58For that remark. For that remark. So, it has to be seen whether she will be allowed to enter the parliament, although she has been elected.
19:06So, if she takes oath and she becomes a member, she sits on the treasury benches, then where is the punishment?
19:14She is a member of parliament, while she is facing terror charges in a court of law. So, where is the punishment?
19:20Where is Modi's forgiveness here? You know. So, basically what I am hearing from you is that the next step that the congress has to do is to actually hold the BJP accountable.
19:33And being seen as holding it accountable. I think more than holding BJP accountable, I think they are not in a position to hold anybody accountable at the moment.
19:43First of all, I think the congress party has to build on its own credibility. Look, today's reality is no matter what Rahul Gandhi says,
19:56no matter what any congress leader says, people don't believe him. You know, there is a big section of the society,
20:03there is a huge trust deficit between a big chunk of electorate and the congress. Even if congress leaders are telling the truth,
20:14even if congress leaders are making correct allegations, rightful allegations, it is very difficult for people to trust them.
20:24Why is that? I think this is where… I think a lot of it is, you know, a lot of it is because of the fact that the media,
20:38the kind of campaign that media has run in discrediting Rahul Gandhi and they have succeeded. You know, I can name four or five channels who have consistently,
20:48they have run campaigns, they have been very hostile to him in all these five years and they have built an image of Rahul Gandhi which is far from reality.
21:01You know, look, aunty. Sorry. But I would like to add something that Bobby said, this element of distrust. I think Rahul Gandhi himself also did certain things which worked against him.
21:15For example, his temple tourism. From the time of the last year's Gujarat elections, we suddenly saw him visiting a whole lot of temples.
21:22Now my point is, you don't need to believe or exercise these optics. If you want to put a message across, there are other ways of doing it.
21:29You don't have to say, look, this is the way I am going to placate the Hindu vote. It doesn't work as we see right now.
21:35The Hindu vote has not consolidated in favor of the congress. It has gone the other way. So, I think that was a big mistake that he was trying to do.
21:41So, it's more a lack of statesmanship. I think it's high time. There is a lesson for congress also in this election.
21:47Congress has to understand that treating the minority as a vote bank is not going to work in their favor anymore.
21:53You know, there have been so many instances from the time of Indira Gandhi when vote bank politics have trumped over whatever secular credentials congress might stake claim to.
22:03So, this is high time congress realizes that the minority, okay, it's a section, but it's not just a set of numbers out there.
22:10They also have their problems, try to address them. In 70 years since independence, congress hasn't done enough for the minorities.
22:17So, this is high time to start delivering. In the states where they are in power, they can start with those states and then look at the bigger picture.
22:24What do you have to say to that? I mean, just to add to what Sanjeev was saying, it actually reflects a muddled approach, isn't it?
22:30They are not thinking through. There is not a clear cut approach to it. It is just muddling, I mean, through. You almost, like, as it comes, you treat it.
22:39No, it's not. You need to have a long term plan and a short term plan. But here, you don't seem to have a plan at all. As it comes, you play.
22:49That doesn't work actually. Especially in politics, especially like you are saying about you need to plan for now. I would say you need to plan for two elections ahead.
22:58Absolutely. So, it's like, poor campaign politics, not enough proper management, lack of statesmanship.
23:05Lack of vision too. Lack of vision. And also, if I can quickly add, Anupa, you know, in recent, I think the second, one of the,
23:13the second last interview that Rahul Gandhi gave was to Ravish Kumar and the first question that Ravish Kumar was, asked him was,
23:20how do you respond to the, this muscular nationalism of the BJP? How do you respond to it? And the thing, and the fact is,
23:30that the Congress has no strategy. How Congress responded to BJP's announcement of Pragya Thakur was by, you know, Digvijay Singh bringing in these sadhus and the babas,
23:43and, you know, they were campaigning for him. So, this is the only way they can respond to, they don't know any other way.
23:51It's like a lack of maturity. It can be counterproductive. See, who are you attracting? You are trying to attract the same set of people.
23:59People who like this kind of, who have an appetite for this kind of, you know, muscular nationalism. That is why Pragya Thakur was launched in Bhopal.
24:10So, the Congress is also trying to tap into the same kind of, same set of people. They are not trying to widen their, you know, catchment area.
24:18Remember, Modi got 31% in Modi's party in 2014. India vote share was 38.7, meaning a large majority of people still do not subscribe to his ideology.
24:31Today also, we don't know the exact vote share, but still I believe, I would like to believe that a large majority of people are non-BJP.
24:39You know, and that is where I think Congress needs to focus, not on the BJP vote bank.
24:45So, you, what you all are saying is that essentially, so you have 100%, so you have a 40% people who will always subscribe to that kind of behavior.
24:54Leave them alone, look at the remaining 60%, do something constructive, have a proper plan in place, and think forward so that you actually think a 5-year, 10-year term too.
25:06So, looking forward, we have kind of a clear picture and we see Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister and for the next coming 5 years.
25:16And we have provided you a detailed analysis, definitely there is more coming up as part of the live coverage on gulfnews.com.
25:25But as of now, this is a final wrap on the Facebook Live updates, but you will continue getting leads and other news on our social media channels on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter.
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25:42Thank you very much for joining in and I would also like to thank our panelists who spent the entire day to help us understand today's process much better. Thank you.