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00:00Welcome back to the next live update on the Indian election coverage 2019 from Gulf News.
00:09Right now with me are three new panelist members.
00:12No, of course, you've also already met with Sanjeev.
00:16So you have Malvika, who's going to give us an overview about Andhra Pradesh and the interesting
00:23results from there, and Bobby, who is going to talk to us about the Indian Hindi heartland.
00:31So starting off again with Sanjeev, who's going to give us an insight into the Northeast.
00:35BJP has made, I think, quite a bit of inroad into that segment.
00:43Can you tell us a bit more?
00:44Let's see, the Northeast accounts for 25 seats in total, if you consider the entire Northeast
00:49as a block.
00:51And going by the trends right now, BJP and its allies stand to win about 20 of those
00:5525 seats, which is a very big thing, very significant.
00:58And about 12 of those seats will come from Assam alone.
01:01Now, Assam, you said is interesting.
01:04Exactly, I'm coming to that.
01:05You see, once again, as I said about Maharashtra, the same story gets repeated in Assam as well,
01:11that of BJP working out its sheet-sharing arrangement very well with its ally.
01:17We talked about Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, in Assam, it's the awesome Gana Parishad.
01:21They had a fantastic arrangement of seat-sharing with AGP, and as a result, BJP might win 12
01:27of those 14 seats from Assam alone.
01:29And that has been the story in state after state in this election, where you see BJP
01:33doing so well, not just BJP, it's other NDI allies also picking up seats.
01:37So then this again brings us back to the earlier question.
01:42So are we seeing a success less?
01:45I know there has been a lot of communal politics, etc., but are you seeing a success of a party
01:50that is very well organized and has done a lot of grassroots kind of level of campaigning
01:57right from the start, and their opposition, which has taken it rather lightly?
02:02Yeah, I think you're very right, opposition, namely the Congress, let's say, didn't understand
02:07that BJP is going to make this kind of an inroad in Northeast.
02:11Actually, the process started with BJP winning the Assam and Tripura state assembly elections
02:16couple of years back.
02:18That really set this entire thing into motion.
02:21And what we are seeing right now is a consolidation of the right-wing vote, let's say, as it has
02:26happened elsewhere in India, in the Northern and Western parts.
02:29The same story is getting repeated in Bengal, Odisha, and also in the Northeastern parts.
02:33So this is basically a pattern which is setting in right now, all across the Gangetic Plains
02:38and right up to the Northeast.
02:39Which brings me to West Bengal, a quick line on that.
02:43Yeah, West Bengal is one of the fascinating stories of this election right now.
02:47And according to the election commission's figures, Trinamool is winning about 43% of
02:52the vote share.
02:53And I mean, BJP is winning 43% of the vote share, and Trinamool getting about 45.
02:58So if there's a two percentage point difference between the two major parties, I mean, that
03:02talks of a tectonic shift happening in Bengal right now, where Trinamool, I think until
03:08about two years back, was absolutely sure of winning about 40 seats in Bengal.
03:12And from there, their tally is coming down to about 25.
03:15And where does that leave CPM?
03:17And CPM, actually what has happened in Bengal is a transfer of votes, so to speak, from
03:22the left to the BJP.
03:23Again, a question of good alliances?
03:26It's not really a question of good alliances.
03:28I would rather say that when Mamata came to power in 2011 in West Bengal, the CPM, namely,
03:34and the left as a whole, they ceded a lot of ground to Mamata.
03:38They were in no position to put up a fight.
03:40In election after election, there were booths that were left unmanned.
03:44The left was not in a position to even put up enough booth managers and agents.
03:48So this has been the story in Bengal for the last eight years.
03:51So there was a lot of fertile ground for some other party, some other political combination
03:56to come in and capitalize on the anti-Mamata sentiment, which has been brewing for some
04:00time.
04:01And what we are seeing right now is BJP taking over that ground, which was lying vacant for
04:05some time.
04:06Taking and taking opportunity, which brings us to Andhra Pradesh.
04:11What do you have to tell us about Andhra Pradesh?
04:13I think what's happening in Andhra right now is, I wouldn't say it's unexpected, because
04:20for some time, I think the ground sentiment has been a little bitter about Chandrababu
04:26Naidu, even though we must remember that he is one of the chief ministers in the history
04:32of the state, who has had an immense backing, given that he actually brought Andhra into
04:37the IT categories, and he did it extremely successfully.
04:42But I think the root of the present problem can go back to the bifurcation that happened
04:46in 2014, and the state got split, and I don't think the wounds have healed.
04:52A lot of Andhra still are smarting at the way it was done.
04:56Many promises were made, and a lot of those promises, such as a special status category
05:02for the state, such as extra funds, because right now, Andhra's public debt is at an all-time
05:10high.
05:11And even though, in comparison, its industrial performance over the years has been pretty
05:17steady.
05:18In fact, in 2018, it was among one of the highest in states in India.
05:23The question is that, for the public, all these promises and this new capital, Amravati,
05:28now that's become a bone of contention.
05:31And Naidu, I think he started off well by promising this absolute state-of-the-art capital,
05:36but over the last two years, I think he has just slid into a lot of resentment is coming
05:44to him in the sense of the expenditure and the ambition are just not matching.
05:48I think Jagan Reddy has been very clever in trying to utilize that space that is building
05:55against Naidu.
05:57And he has done something which I suppose every strong opponent does, which is go to
06:03the base of your opponent's support group, which are all the backward castes, and there
06:08are a lot of them in Andhra.
06:09And he has literally been visiting them door to door over this very extensive campaign
06:14over the last one year.
06:16And it really looks like it succeeded, because they seem to be now having more trust in Jagan's
06:21promises for the future of Andhra than someone who has been a very seasoned politician and
06:27chief minister.
06:28But Naidu seems to be losing a bit of his ground according to what the results are showing.
06:33And this is interesting, because the opposition has been, or the Congress has been utilizing
06:38him to kind of create alliances all over the country.
06:41Yes, yes.
06:42But clearly, even that tactic has not worked.
06:45And I think now it's really important to see what the future holds, because obviously Naidu
06:50seems to be now a part of the history rather than the future.
06:55I think in the future, sticking my neck out, I would think that Jagan has always expressed
07:01a very tacit support with the BJP.
07:04And if he manages somehow to get the state what it needs right now to assuage its identity
07:11hurt, which is a special status category, I think he's going to be a real hero for times to come.
07:17If he manages to get it.
07:20An interesting point you raised was Chandrababu Naidu is about history and the past, and looking
07:27at the fact that we've had a high level of young voters turning up.
07:32So do you think India and the South and all these other states are actually the youth speaking?
07:40I think it is the youth speaking, because 60% or close to that is the youthful population of India.
07:46And Jagan, I think, is more identifiable as a youth leader than Naidu, who is obviously
07:52much older, and probably he doesn't talk the language of the youth, which is right now
07:57required in Andhra.
07:58Because again, the state also has a bit of similar issues of jobs and greater industrialization.
08:06They feel a lot of money is being pumped into the so-called pipe dream of Amravati, because
08:12as of now, it's only a blueprint.
08:14Nothing really is happening on the ground.
08:17And they just believe that instead of having all these airy-fairy concepts, how about someone
08:22who gives us a more concrete idea of what our future looks like.
08:26And I think Jagan, at this point, is poised to speak that language.
08:30It remains to be seen what he delivers, because there's always a shadow that falls between
08:35the promises and delivery, in every single, you know, political leader who takes the seat.
08:39So at the moment, I think he's riding high on the popularity.
08:43He's gleaned, saying, look, I'm the guy to turn to, because the rest were all promises,
08:47but I will deliver on your promises.
08:50Ironically, his father was a congressman.
08:53Yeah.
08:54That's another irony of Indian politics.
08:56That's another irony that, you know, there is obviously a different ideological shift
09:01that is happening with the younger generation, which he represents.
09:05I think, like I said in the earlier live, you seem to be seeing a sentiment that is
09:11anti-dynastic politics.
09:14I'm not sure whether in Andhra that is that confirmed, because you must also look at the
09:20way a lot of Telugu people venerate dynasties, which is visible in the way they venerate
09:28film stars.
09:30So whether it's the NTR dynasty or whether it is anything else, in fact, they actually
09:34look forward to it, because I think they have a certain respect for continuity, which is
09:40interpreted in a different way in their mindset.
09:43Thank you for that, Malika.
09:45Coming to Bobby, India's Hindi heartland, which a lot of people say finally decides
09:52who sits in the Prime Minister's office.
09:54So UP is giving us especially some interesting results.
09:58Not just UP.
09:59Arunbhai, if you begin from central India and if you have to draw a circle right from
10:04Chhattisgarh, MP, and go to the west, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and there's a slight break
10:11only in Punjab.
10:13Otherwise, you can draw the complete circle right from Chhattisgarh to Bihar.
10:18If you look at UP, what has happened over there is that although BJP is not repeating
10:27– it doesn't look like it's going to repeat its 2000 performance when it won 73
10:32seats along with its allies, and only the remaining seven seats went to the opposition.
10:39But still, it's still not a bad job what they have done in UP, because if you look
10:45at the opposition alliance, when Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party and RLD, which
10:52is – they came together, and the combined vote share of these parties is either slightly
11:00more than the BJP's or almost the same.
11:04And what they were hoping was that the five years of so-called anti-incumbency, which
11:10we think it's not there, will give the Gadbandhan a slight edge, and then they will
11:17be able to actually stop BJP in UP, which was critical for the opposition story.
11:22If the opposition wanted – this is one state where opposition could have succeeded, but
11:28you can see that it's failing miserably.
11:33Now, in remaining states, what is happening, the so-called Hindi heartland states?
11:39No, which also brings the interesting point of caste politics.
11:43Yeah, see, okay.
11:45You know, the caste politics is more profound and more visible in UP than any other state,
11:53perhaps maybe Bihar, you know.
11:56So, I think the opposition was banking too much on this so-called caste arithmetic.
12:02Samajwadi Party, they have – the Yadav community supports them, Bahujan Samaj Party,
12:09one section of the Dalit community supports them, and then whoever gets the vote of these
12:15two parties, the Muslims tend to vote, you know, support them, yeah.
12:20But clearly, that arithmetic is not working.
12:25We can see that.
12:27You know, it won't be wrong to say that, you know, here the chemistry is more powerful,
12:35the Modi chemistry, you know.
12:38And it's a huge, huge lesson for not just these regional parties but also Congress
12:46that one, even the poorest of poor, look, they are aspirational.
12:52If you look at the delivery of the Modi government in the five years, it's not satisfactory.
12:58Everybody agrees that.
12:59So, what have they got?
13:01What have these poor and marginalized people got?
13:04Some of them have got toilets.
13:06Some of them have got free cooking gas connection.
13:10Some of them have got electricity connection.
13:14Some of them have got the pakka house, you know, the concrete house.
13:20Now, see, in a state like UP, which is, you know, 200 million people live there,
13:25the expectation from the government is so low that anything,
13:30if the government is able to deliver, is fine.
13:33It's fine.
13:34And this is what has worked.
13:35That's a bit tragic, actually.
13:36And that is why people, voters who are loyal to, let's say, Mayawati, the Jata,
13:41you know, the Mayawati belongs to the Jata community,
13:45looks like many of them have shifted to the BJP.
13:49Same with the Yadav community.
13:51Why?
13:52Because of this, sorry to interrupt you, Bobby.
13:54So, the shift you're believing is because of these few minor kinds of, yeah.
14:00See, not just that.
14:03In this election, what we have noticed, you know,
14:06one distinct story that is coming, you know,
14:09and it's kind of uniform in most states, if not all,
14:14is that voters, even the voters of the rural India,
14:18they are able to distinguish between the state elections and the national elections.
14:23And that is where, I think, the real story lies.
14:27They think that Prime Minister Modi is good for India.
14:31So, you may have these regional heavyweights.
14:34People still will restore faith on these people.
14:38Odisha is one example where, you know, Mr. Patnaik seems to be winning.
14:43I'm sorry to interrupt, Bobby.
14:44What you're saying is very right.
14:45In Odisha, people have gone in to vote.
14:47There were two EVMs.
14:48They have pressed one button for BJP and one button for BJP.
14:52Exactly.
14:53One vote for the state elections and one for the national elections.
14:56And similarly, I mean.
14:57Voters were so discreet.
14:58And this is more visible, Anupa, in these three states,
15:02if you look at Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat,
15:06where BJP, sorry, Madhya Pradesh, you know,
15:10BJP lost power just five months ago.
15:13And the most, and Chhattisgarh was a clear mandate.
15:17Even if victories, Congress victories in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan
15:21were not so convincing, but, you know, they have the government.
15:25Still, it was a mandate.
15:27Even in these states, we have seen that Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan,
15:32they're barely winning one seat each.
15:34Chhattisgarh, again, BJP is winning up to nine seats.
15:38That is, you know.
15:40So basically, you're saying is that they'll get the states,
15:44but they won't get the center because the Indian voter
15:48wants different choices at different places
15:51because of their daily functioning
15:54versus what they believe is necessary for the larger picture.
15:58No, I think if this current trend stays,
16:00then the state and the national elections will be two different stories.
16:04One, the state-in-state, I think the voters,
16:08more and more, will alternate, you know,
16:12between the incumbent and the opposition.
16:17We have seen this in Madhya Pradesh,
16:19after 15 years, Shivraj Singh Chauhan lost,
16:22Dr. Raman Singh lost, Vasundhara Raje lost.
16:25I think this trend will spread to other states also.
16:29Voters will alternate, you know,
16:33will throw out the incumbent and bring in the opposition.
16:36This will happen.
16:37But at the national level, we don't know at the moment.
16:41At the moment, Narendra Modi is the undisputed Supreme Leader.
16:46There is no challenger.
16:48You know, we thought that to an extent,
16:50Rahul Gandhi is able to actually make a dent.
16:53But, you know, if you look at the last few rounds,
16:57actually the numbers are coming down.
16:59When, you know, at 11 o'clock our time,
17:01the numbers were over 100.
17:03Now they have come down to the 80s.
17:05So, you know, the gains made by Rahul Gandhi are marginal.
17:10So we don't know, unless a pan-India leader emerges,
17:14whether Rahul Gandhi will be able to fill that gap
17:17in the next five years, we don't know.
17:19At the moment, I think, as far as the national story goes,
17:23Narendra Modi is the leader.
17:25Looks set to continue for five years.
17:27We never know what will happen in 2024.
17:32You know, by the time, I think, how old is Mr. Modi?
17:36He's 70.
17:37He's 70.
17:38So in five years, he'll be 75.
17:39By BJP's own rule, anybody who is 75 plus is sent to,
17:43you know, the…
17:45Nirvana.
17:46Political nirvana.
17:47Yeah, the political nirvana or what they call it
17:49is their advisory council.
17:51By 2024, I think they will also change the rule
17:54and probably extend it to 80.
17:56Maybe.
17:58Maybe.
17:59It's a possibility.
18:00Let's see.
18:01Interesting results, interesting times for India.
18:05And one of the most interesting points made by our panelists
18:08is that the Indian voter cannot be fooled
18:11and is voting rather cleverly but discreetly,
18:15to quote Sanjeev,
18:17when it comes to their choices
18:19that depend on centre and state elections.
18:22Let's see how the day unfolds.
18:24We will continue to have more such analysis
18:26and live updates about the results from across India.
18:29So definitely stay tuned.
18:31And as I said earlier,
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18:55log on to Gulfnews.com.
18:57Thank you very much for joining us.
18:59We will see you again in a short while.