Saham Telkom (TLKM) bangkit dan melesat 7% sehari. Kenaikan saham Telkom ini terjadi setelah koreksi pasar yang cukup signifikan pada bursa saham dalam negeri beberapa hari terakhir. Penguatan ini juga dikaitkan dengan peluang kinerja full year TLKM di 2024, di mana menurut konsensus laba bisa capai di atas Rp 23 triliun.
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TVTranscript
00:00INDONESIA
00:05Good morning, viewers, for those of you who have just joined us.
00:08You are now watching MarketBuzz, where in this segment, we will be reviewing information about the capital market along with the sources.
00:15But before that, we will present some of the sentiments in the following Spotlight market.
00:19What we highlight, viewers, is that there is an IASG that has strengthened to the position of 6,645.
00:25It rose after five consecutive days of sharp correction.
00:29And the strength is led by a number of blue chips.
00:32The Telkom, Pemiersa, or TLKM, became the main supporter of IASG with a strength of 7% in one day.
00:38Then there is the infrastructure sector, which led the strength with an increase of 3%, of course, also supported by Telkom shares.
00:45We go to the economic agenda.
00:47There is the United States, which released a federal budget, then claimed unemployment.
00:51From the European Union, the monthly ECB report, the Brutto-Quartel 4 domestic product from the UK,
00:57as well as the consumer price index from Germany, circulating money from South Korea, and inflation expectations from Australia.
01:04Then, what is the news of EMITEN, which should be the attention of Pemiersa or Agenda?
01:10There is DEWAR, General Meeting of Stockholders, and the Agenda of EMITEN is indeed a bit quiet for trading on this Thursday.
01:18We update the position of the Asian Stock Exchange, which may be a sign of opening up trade.
01:22Will it continue the strengthening of Pemiersa or vice versa?
01:25And the strengthening of the Asian area, where Nikkei Japan, based on the data we collected, is expected to rise by about 1%.
01:31Singapore Shred Time, a thin rise of 0.02%.
01:34South Korean KOSPI, a rise of 0.74%.
01:37Hong Kong Hang Seng, a rise of 0.88%.
01:41Those are the brief reviews from Pemiersa on the Asian Stock Exchange update this morning.
01:52Pemiersa, the Telkom is back and the price is down by 7% in a day.
01:57How is the prospect? We will review it this morning with Mr. Ezzarido Ibnutama,
02:02Chief Economist at Hakorindo Securities Indonesia.
02:05Good morning, Mr. Ezzarido.
02:08Good morning.
02:10Good morning, Mr. Ezzarido. Thank you for joining us this morning.
02:13Let's get straight to it. We reviewed the Index of the Asian Stock Exchange,
02:15which after 5 consecutive days of falling, finally rose.
02:19How is the opportunity of the Index of the Asian Stock Exchange supported by the Blue Chips Stock Exchange for Thursday?
02:27For Thursday, it looks like there will be a rebound for the short term only.
02:39We have seen that the majority of Blue Chip stocks have undervalued yesterday
02:50because the sentiment in the country is lacking compared to other countries.
02:57But with this undervaluation in the last two weeks,
03:06our Blue Chip stocks look very interesting.
03:11Especially, we have seen some good release reports for the full year 2024, such as Telkomsel.
03:28You evaluated the Telkom stock, which rose and fell by 7% in a day.
03:33What is the main sentiment of this Telkom stock, Mr. Ezzarido?
03:36For Telkomsel, we see that the sentiment is from the increase in efficiency.
03:47Because the increase in efficiency has an effect on their dividends as well.
03:58Maybe on the market share side, Telkomsel is the biggest,
04:03and they do have a little competition on the other side of the competition that is about to enter Indonesia.
04:18But, if we look at the report that was quite good yesterday for Telkomsel,
04:27Telkomsel is still one of the biggest dividend players in Indonesia.
04:34So, you see that efficiency will affect the energy that is not yet released for the full year 2024.
04:41So, based on the consensus, Telkomsel stock can reach 23 trillion rupiah.
04:47Is that also what arouses the optimism of the market players in this stock,
04:52so that it fell by 7% because they are waiting for a financial report that is likely to meet expectations?
05:01The majority of sentiment should be like that.
05:05Because Telkomsel investors are waiting for a financial report.
05:16Because Telkomsel is one of the biggest dividend players in the Indonesian stock exchange.
05:24So, the majority of investors see that Telkomsel is the main option for increasing efficiency
05:42and also to get quite large dividends this year.
05:50Okay, Mr. Ezza.
05:51Then, if we talk about the clean coal, which according to the previous consensus is 23 trillion rupiah,
05:56is this actually an impressive number or not?
05:58What if it slips because it hasn't been released yet?
06:02What is your projection like?
06:06We see that the consensus is a bit too optimistic, but not far-fetched.
06:19A bit too optimistic, but not far-fetched.
06:24We do have a consensus.
06:27So, the consensus of analysts is 23.62 trillion rupiah,
06:32but we have a consensus of 22.8 trillion rupiah.
06:42So, the net profit margin is a bit stable in our opinion for this year.
06:51Okay. Not impressive, but more stable.
06:57Yes, we see that Telkomsel should have a more stable efficiency,
07:02but according to other analysts, the efficiency will increase this year.
07:09We will see if we are right or the consensus is right for this year.
07:16Okay.
07:17What is the movement of Telkom's share price in the last few months?
07:22For example, we see that the year-to-date has dropped by 12.55%.
07:26Then, if we look at this morning's pre-opening,
07:31when it rose by 7%, the profit-taking has dropped by 4.5%.
07:37What is the investment strategy of Telkom?
07:41Actually, the telecommunications sector is very mature.
07:52Because if we look at the majority of market share in Indonesia,
07:59the majority of people, whether it's urban or rural setting,
08:02people already have Wi-Fi, people can have access to telecommunications.
08:10Telecommunications towers as well.
08:13So, if we see that there are a lot of competitions
08:23that want to enter Indonesia, such as Starlink,
08:26such as Elon Musk's Starlink,
08:29it becomes one of the threats to players who are already mature.
08:37Maybe what is being discussed is that Telkom will probably cooperate
08:43with Starlink to enter Indonesia.
08:46But if we look at it, Starlink has entered Indonesia as well.
08:52So, there are a few competitions from outside that will enter
08:55and it becomes one of the threats to Telkomsel's market share
08:59which is indeed one of the highlight points for their investors.
09:07With that condition, what is the recommendation for Telkom right now
09:10that has dropped again by almost 5%?
09:17In our opinion, in the telecommunications industry,
09:21we have to look at the TOWR.
09:26Oh, it's more interesting for TOWR than Telkom?
09:31Yes.
09:33Okay, it's more interesting for TOWR than Telkom.
09:37We will discuss that later.
09:39What do you mean by that?
09:41We saw that Telkom rose by 7% yesterday,
09:43and this morning the profit taking dropped by 5%
09:46to around 2,360.
09:48Thank you, Mr. Mirsa. We will be right back.
09:52Thank you, Mr. Mirsa, for joining us.
09:53We will continue our discussion with our analyst this morning.
09:58Mr. Mirsa said that TOWR is more interesting than Telkom.
10:02Is that true?
10:08Maybe if we look at it from a technical point of view,
10:12TOWR is indeed a correction,
10:17but in RSI it has formed a positive divergence.
10:21So, we are confident that TOWR in the medium term
10:26will rebound and will reach the closest price resistance.
10:41What is the closest resistance level?
10:47Mr. Ezzar, what is the closest resistance level?
10:50It looks like it's around 630.
11:01It's already at 600.
11:03The psychological level is 600 with a 1.64% weakness at the beginning of trading.
11:07The opening this morning, TOWR fell.
11:09How is the strategy?
11:11Is it in the 600 position or is there a level of support that is the strongest resistance?
11:20Actually, we are already at a strong level,
11:25maybe even stronger, which is 595 in the zone.
11:37Okay, it looks like there is a communication problem,
11:39a signal with Mr. Ezzar.
11:41He said that there is a chance for TOWR.
11:44Mr. Ezzar, can you still hear my voice clearly?
11:50Okay, Mr. Mirsa.
11:51We will get back to Mr. Ezzar.
11:56Hello?
11:57Yes, please, Mr. Ezzar.
11:58So, how can the levels be repeated?
12:01The strongest level of support for TOWR right now is 595-600.
12:10So, TOWR is very worthy to be collected right now.
12:15Okay, 595-600.
12:17Level-by right now is given by TOWR.
12:19There is a discount.
12:20That's why it's interesting to enter according to Mr. Ezzar.
12:23What about Telkom?
12:26For Telkom, we see that for today it has been corrected by 5%.
12:39And it's possible that the euphoria that came to Telkomsel yesterday is gone.
12:49Oh, okay.
12:51It's just a short term, right?
12:53Yes, it's a very short term.
12:55It's possible that Telkomsel will drop to 2310.
13:01That's the strong support of Telkomsel.
13:04Okay.
13:05It's recommended if we talk about Telkom, which has risen yesterday, Mr. Ezzar.
13:08And the analysis from Mr. Ezzar is more interested in TOWR.
13:12Let's go to the selection shares.
13:13And the graphics as follows.
13:15We summarized Mr. Ezzar's shares.
13:17Some of Mr. Ezzar's shares are recommended.
13:19There is Cuan, which is recommended by Spekulatif Buy.
13:22Then there is a brand recommended by Spekulatif Buy, AADI.
13:28Telkom, Mr. Ezzar, Buy on Witness.
13:30Let's review one by one first.
13:32Telkom is also still in Buy on Witness.
13:34Mr. Ezzar, you said earlier that the moment has passed.
13:39Or because you saw the opening this morning,
13:42that's why you said, yes, the moment has passed.
13:45Last night, it was still Buy on Witness, right?
13:48That's right.
13:49Because as I said before the market opening,
13:52the sentiment is that we see that the rebound for the short term
13:59should continue with a correction that is not as deep as this.
14:03If the correction is as deep as this,
14:09it is possible that it will continue to fall to the 2360 that I mentioned earlier.
14:20Okay.
14:22So it is possible that this very significant correction,
14:31if the support has passed,
14:33if the support has passed from 2370,
14:39then the bearish sentiment is overtaking the bullish sentiment.
14:44So indeed, Telkomsel is not too worthy to be bought right now.
14:51We have to adjust our strategy according to what is happening in the market too.
14:58Okay.