AccuWeather's Jon Porter breaks down the major winter storm that's expected to dump heavy snow from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. during the middle of this week.
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00:00On Friday, we issued this map, you and I drew this, and we, you know, a lot of sources don't
00:06like going this far out, but we wanted to give everybody some idea of the possibilities.
00:14One scenario would take this system right up the coast, the other scenario was offshore,
00:19and it looks as though the offshore is going to be the correct solution.
00:24It does. There's more evidence that suggests this is going to pass,
00:26come right up the North Carolina coast and then move more east than it will north. So in other
00:31words, unlikely to turn right up the coast. That means unlikely to have a blockbuster storm
00:36in New York City, Boston, down to Philadelphia. A heavier snow will be located in the south,
00:42but a small move back to the north and west of that storm can make all the difference, Bernie.
00:47It's all being guided by this upper level area of low pressure across the Great Lakes,
00:52and that interaction is really going to drive the specific storm track and, of course,
00:56all the impacts and where the snow occurs. The concern is, John, preceding this storm,
01:01we have a lot of cold, dry air before this storm arrives.
01:06Look at that. Temperature's 20 degree high in Pittsburgh, 13 in Chicago, 3 in Omaha.
01:13Cold, dry air plentiful on the north side of it. So the question is just how much moisture
01:18is going to surge northward and interact with that cold air to produce that snow.
01:23You had mentioned the upper air pattern. Let's show it to you. This is Wednesday
01:28evening here. There's the upper low across the upper Midwest. There's the storm off the
01:33Carolina coast. And you can see, John, because of the tilt of that trough, it's what we call
01:38a positive trough, the steering flow is out of the west-southwest, not from the south to north.
01:43Yeah, that's one of the factors that we're watching. But again, it all is going to come
01:46down to the specific location and orientation of this upper level area of low pressure over
01:51the Great Lakes. If that was a little bit further to the west, that would draw the storm
01:56further to the west and have a tendency to bring it closer to the coast. So miles are going to
02:01matter in this one in terms of the track of the storm. Now, here's what we're thinking,
02:05John. There's the snapshot. The debatable area is from Long Island down toward Washington, D.C.
02:13This is the area that there can still be some movement here in those snow totals
02:17because a little bit of an adjustment to the north will increase the amounts of snow
02:21in this area. But what we are confident in here is a significant snowstorm across parts of
02:27Virginia to right up in the D.C. area and then some snow and ice also across the Carolinas with
02:32such cold air in place. Big impacts with this system. The question is just how far does that
02:37come up the coast? What I find interesting on future radar here, again, this is one solution.
02:42Watch how the snow avoids Washington, D.C. through the afternoon and then watch the push
02:47northward, John, Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night.
02:50Yeah, look at that expansion on the northwest side of the storm. That's what
02:53will bring the snow into D.C. And that's why we still think there can be accumulations
02:58of a couple of inches from New York to Boston, especially the further southeast you go. So
03:03that's going to favor Long Island, southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and Cape Cod in the
03:07islands, for example. John, we just had a map discussion. We decided we're going to let this
03:12snow map as is for now. Yeah, that's right. We're going to continue to hold our forecast
03:20accumulations here one to three inches across much of southeastern New England, three to six
03:24on the Cape, two to four in New York City and down toward Philadelphia. And then look at the
03:29heavier snow totals from Baltimore to Washington, especially down toward Richmond. Yeah, watch
03:35yourself from Raleigh toward Charlotte, some ice going over there, some snow. All right. AccuWeather
03:40Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. John, thanks for joining us here this morning.