⚠️ The clock is ticking. As tensions between Iran and the United States reach a critical point, the world is asking: Diplomacy or Disaster? 🕊️
In this crucial episode of Dialogue Works, top voices weigh in:
🎙️ Mohammad Marandi – Iranian academic and political analyst
🎖️ Col. Larry Wilkerson – Former Chief of Staff to Colin Powell
🌐 Amb. Chas Freeman – Veteran diplomat and expert on U.S. foreign policy
Together, they explore:
🔹 The real stakes of a U.S.–Iran conflict
🔹 Missed diplomatic opportunities
🔹 How media, military, and misinformation fuel escalation
🔹 Is war inevitable, or is peace still possible?
💬 This is the conversation the world needs to hear.
📌 Like, Subscribe & hit the 🔔 for more in-depth, no-spin global dialogue.
#Iran #USIranTensions #DialogueWorks #MohammadMarandi #LarryWilkerson #ChasFreeman #MiddleEastCrisis #Geopolitics #USForeignPolicy #IranUpdate #Diplomacy #WarOrPeace #GlobalConflict #RealTalk #WorldAffairs #InternationalRelations #PeaceTalks #MilitaryAnalysis #USPolitics #TruthMatters
In this crucial episode of Dialogue Works, top voices weigh in:
🎙️ Mohammad Marandi – Iranian academic and political analyst
🎖️ Col. Larry Wilkerson – Former Chief of Staff to Colin Powell
🌐 Amb. Chas Freeman – Veteran diplomat and expert on U.S. foreign policy
Together, they explore:
🔹 The real stakes of a U.S.–Iran conflict
🔹 Missed diplomatic opportunities
🔹 How media, military, and misinformation fuel escalation
🔹 Is war inevitable, or is peace still possible?
💬 This is the conversation the world needs to hear.
📌 Like, Subscribe & hit the 🔔 for more in-depth, no-spin global dialogue.
#Iran #USIranTensions #DialogueWorks #MohammadMarandi #LarryWilkerson #ChasFreeman #MiddleEastCrisis #Geopolitics #USForeignPolicy #IranUpdate #Diplomacy #WarOrPeace #GlobalConflict #RealTalk #WorldAffairs #InternationalRelations #PeaceTalks #MilitaryAnalysis #USPolitics #TruthMatters
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00Hi, everybody. Today is Friday, April 18th, 2025, and our friends Colonel Wilkerson,
00:00:12Ambassador Charles Freeman, and Professor Morandi from Iran are back with us. Welcome back.
00:00:18Good. Thank you.
00:00:21Let's get started, Ambassador, with what has happened in the first meeting between
00:00:26the American and Iranians in Oman. They were evaluating both parties, they were evaluating
00:00:35as positive, but we are witnessing that Witkow is just changing the rhetoric. Here is what he put on
00:00:43X, and he's talking about Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization
00:00:50program. This is totally different from what we've heard before from him. Even on Fox News, he was
00:00:57giving an interview, he was talking on Fox News. How do you see the way that Witkow is trying to change
00:01:07the rhetoric? Well, I think we talked about the fact that the administration is divided against itself.
00:01:15Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance have certain views. Secretary of State Rubio and Mike Waltz,
00:01:27the National Security Advisor, and some others are classic neoconservatives. And so the government
00:01:34is not, speaks with many voices. But I think what happened in Muscat was that Arapchi, the Iranian
00:01:44foreign minister, proposed to roll back the situation to where it was in about 2015. That is, Iran would
00:01:53agree to retreat from the high level of enrichment that it has since been engaged in, go back to 3.7%
00:02:02perhaps, readmit the inspectors, perhaps even improve the inspection regime,
00:02:08and give commitments, which are easy for Iran, because it apparently has not made a decision to
00:02:16build a bomb, even though it is close to being able to do so. Go back to that. And I think Mr.
00:02:23Witkow basically accepted that. And then he went back to Washington and word arrived, probably from
00:02:31Jerusalem directly to the president. You got to stop this agreement. And so he did. And so now he's back to
00:02:41the original demand that Mike Waltz articulated, which is total ban on any nuclear program at all.
00:02:51I didn't notice in this latest statement, anything about destroying air defenses and missiles and so
00:02:58forth. But I wouldn't be surprised if that were in there too. So this is not acceptable to Iran. And
00:03:04it's not a formula to go forward. And it is a reminder that it was Mr. Trump in his first presidency
00:03:14who canceled that nuclear agreement, the JCPOA, much on, you know, I think Iran would be taking a big risk
00:03:26to accept Mr. Trump's word for anything. Maybe it's prepared to do so. But not in these terms where
00:03:35the negotiator says one thing one day, and then the next day takes back what he said. So this is,
00:03:43I think, a pretty good indication of what some of us have suspected, namely, the Trump administration
00:03:49doesn't know what it's doing and doesn't know how to do consistent diplomacy. It's not good.
00:03:59Professor Miranda, your take, and how does Iran perceive that?
00:04:07Obviously, it's a sign, as Chas pointed out, that the administration is speaking with many voices.
00:04:19And this is not unique when it comes to US foreign policy or Trump's foreign policy, because we see
00:04:28the same thing with China and the tariff war. We see it with other countries, again, regarding the
00:04:41tariffs that they've imposed on them. And of course, we also hear mixed messages
00:04:47when it comes to Ukraine. So it's hard to really figure out what's happening. But it's not a good
00:04:56sign. I agree completely. The Iranians are willing to carry out a deal. We almost had a deal three years
00:05:04ago when Dr. Balkhary was negotiating in Vienna. I was there, as I was with also Dr. Zarif in 2015.
00:05:14We reached the final text. But ultimately, Biden was unable to agree to it, even though the Europeans
00:05:22accepted that text has accepted that text. I think that tomorrow will probably give us a clearer indication
00:05:30of where the United States wants to go. Either they want to kick the can down the road for a few more
00:05:39weeks or they're going to go back to what Whitcoff was saying on Fox News. But if it's what he's written
00:05:50on X, then that's not a good sign, because the Iranians are not going to accept halting the enrichment
00:05:59of uranium. It's a sovereign right of Iran. And Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program either.
00:06:06So Whitcoff's shifting position, I think, leaves Iranians baffled, because a week ago tomorrow,
00:06:15people were optimistic. Although I think that the people in charge were telling people not to be very
00:06:22optimistic. I told Khamenei, he said, I'm not optimistic. And so we shouldn't be optimistic,
00:06:30or we shouldn't be too optimistic or too pessimistic. We should get on with business as usual,
00:06:35and let the negotiators do the negotiating. I think, though, that the trip by the son of King Salman
00:06:47and the Minister of Defense to Tehran was an important trip. He was supposed to be here last
00:06:53week, but he was ill, so it was postponed for a week. Now, because there are different interpretations
00:07:00about timing, and I thought that's an important point to keep in mind. But I think it does show
00:07:10that Saudi Arabia does want to improve relations, and that there are issues that Saudi Arabia and Iran
00:07:18can resolve together. It makes things more difficult for the United States and for Israel, of course,
00:07:25if Saudi-Iranian relations improve. And I'm sure it's also a concern, the situation for Saudi Arabia,
00:07:33because if there's conflict in the region, then that will have a huge impact on oil supplies, gas supplies.
00:07:44If the United States starts bombing Iran, I think the whole region, everything in the region will
00:07:53change. One thing, though, that I should remind your audience, and that is that a US strike on Iran
00:08:04is not simple. It's not something that can easily be carried out. If they do not use any of the bases
00:08:11in the region, they have to fly from Diego Garcia. And that is a complicated mission. It's far. The planes
00:08:21are very large. They need escorts. Those escorts will have problems getting close to Iran's borders.
00:08:32those aircraft carriers. And bombing strikes against Iran would have very limited impact.
00:08:42If the United States really wants to get into a fight with Iran, they'd have to bring in,
00:08:47I guess, a million, a million and a half soldiers. They'd have to mobilize their resources from across
00:08:53the world of the Pacific, the Americas, Africa. Everything would have to be gathered here. I
00:09:00don't see that happening. And the world has changed. The rivals of the United States are much stronger
00:09:06today. The United States does not have the resources and the ability to spend such money
00:09:17at a time when the economy is not doing well. And I think the trade wars are also going to make it more
00:09:26difficult. So if the United States bombs Iran, that bombing campaign would not be like Iraq or anything
00:09:34like that. But Iran's response would be very severe. Because Iran has, I think, probably 300 or so
00:09:43more underground missile bases, drone bases across the country. And they've been making advances and
00:09:56bringing in new technology on a regular basis.
00:10:00They're working on their air defenses to prepare themselves for something big. We saw the major
00:10:06maneuvers that were carried out over the past two, three months. So I don't think it will end well for
00:10:12the United States. And the very fact that, according to reports, the U.S. Secretary of Defense did not want,
00:10:18even though he's a hawk, he does not advocate conflict. I think it's probably because people in
00:10:25the know are telling him that this is not a good idea. And I think Tucker Carlson's tweet, too, is
00:10:31probably linked to his connections within the military establishment. But then again,
00:10:38a declining United States may wish, you know, a declining empire may wish to lash out when things are not
00:10:46going well. And then you have the Zionist lobby, on the other hand, that's pushing. You have a deep divide
00:10:52in Israel, a very dangerous divide in Israel. Netanyahu needs to expand the war to continue the war
00:11:01in order to remain in power. And there's even talk that there could be a deadly internal strife in
00:11:10Palestine. So there are many variables. I don't know any answers, but I don't think that any military
00:11:18conflict between Iran and the United States would end well for the United States. It wouldn't end well
00:11:24for anyone, but I think it would be a defeat for the United States, militarily speaking.
00:11:31Ambassador, do you want to add something?
00:11:32Yeah, just two quick points. First, I agree with Professor Morandi. Khaled bin Salman's visit to Tehran
00:11:40and meeting with the Ayatollah Khomeini is a very important development. He carried a letter from
00:11:46King Salman proposing a broad pattern of cooperation, the details of which remain unknown. But very clearly,
00:11:58sending the defense minister to Tehran has symbolic significance, particularly in light of the threats
00:12:06by the United States to attack Iran. The second point I'd make is, and I think Larry may be able to
00:12:13add more context here, is that apparently President Trump brushed aside Prime Minister Netanyahu's demands
00:12:23for a joint attack on Iran. And therefore, the President wants, wanted, has wanted, I'm not sure what
00:12:33the verb, correct verb is, a deal with Iran. Unfortunately, he's surrounded by people who
00:12:42appear not to want a deal, but to want military action. Larry, go ahead.
00:12:50Well, I was just going to say, I can't differ majorly, if at all, with anything that's been said.
00:12:56But I would say, I would focus on for us anyway, and for the situation in general,
00:13:02the fact that, as Doug McGregor said, when you invite clowns to town, all you have is a circus.
00:13:08That's the problem. We don't have a diplomatic instrument right now. We have a president who
00:13:14vacillates all over the board from hour to hour, and not just on Iran, but on Ukraine, which is
00:13:22becoming a much bigger problem, I think, even than Iran, unless we do, in fact, decide to bomb them.
00:13:29And then I agree with the professor there that we're going to get our ass handed to us in good
00:13:34military language. So the problem is in Washington, and it's getting deeper every day. It's getting
00:13:42more profound domestically with regard to rights of Americans under our own constitution. It's getting
00:13:49more profound with regard to what he's doing to the bureaucracy, even the aspects of the bureaucracy,
00:13:55that I would stand up as a Republican and support 100%. He's firing heads of agencies. He's disrupting
00:14:02things. I found out yesterday he just got a hold of, Musk got a hold of, someone for Musk got a hold
00:14:09of, the entire Selective Service System records. Now, what's he doing for that? What the heck does
00:14:14he need that for? One of the things he's going to find out is there's probably only about 60% of the
00:14:2118- to 24-year-olds in America that are registered for the draft. That ought to be a wake-up call,
00:14:26but it won't because he won't even know what he's looking at. That's my deep concern right now. If I
00:14:32were the foreign minister of Iran and I walked into that room, I understand there are going to be direct
00:14:38talks now, you know, translators, and I had the first words other than pleasantries. I would say,
00:14:48I understood what you said last week, but I've seen this. Which is the case? And if he said,
00:14:55the latter is the case, I'd get up and leave. I wouldn't stay.
00:15:00Well, there's something of that happening in the Ukraine context with a statement by Marco Rubio
00:15:10upon leaving Paris that, you know, if we can't solve this in the next few days,
00:15:15we're just going to walk away, thus demonstrating our irrelevance while having picked a fight with
00:15:21our allies in Europe. And so, yes, people do walk away from things sometimes.
00:15:29How about that for diplomacy? If we can't do it in three days? Three days. Exactly.
00:15:37It's not even clear, I think, what he means by we may walk away, walk away from Russia,
00:15:44walk away from Ukraine, walk away from the conflict, give more weapons to Ukraine. It's not
00:15:50clear what he's saying. It's sort of reflective to me of everything that's happening in the United
00:15:56States right now. I don't know where the trade war is going to go. I don't know where the war
00:16:04in Ukraine is going to go. I have no idea what tomorrow is going to be discussed between Iran
00:16:10and the United States. I don't know if there are going to be direct negotiations, but it doesn't
00:16:14matter what exactly is going to happen. So, if he's going to walk away from Ukraine and then walk away
00:16:23from the conflict and walk away from the negotiations at some point, if they're going to continue with
00:16:31their maximalist approach, all they're doing is isolating the United States further, pushing Iran,
00:16:38Russia, China, and others closer to each other, and marginalizing the United States.
00:16:46Here is what Marco Rubio said, Ambassador, about Iran.
00:16:54...continue and that they're fruitful, that they can lead to something. We would all prefer a peaceful
00:16:59resolution and a lasting one. It has to be something that actually not just prevents Iran from having a
00:17:06nuclear weapon now, but in the future as well, not just for 10 years with some sort of sunset provision
00:17:12or the like. So, we discussed that, obviously, because the Europeans, the E3, have a decision to make
00:17:19on snapback, because I believe, we should all anticipate, based on the public comments yesterday,
00:17:24that they're about to get a report from the IAEA that says not just does Iran out of compliance,
00:17:29but Iran is dangerously close to a weapon, closer than they've ever been, and then, you know,
00:17:33they're going to have to make a decision about whether they want to reimpose these sanctions.
00:17:37And, you know, if Iran is out of compliance, they have to reimpose the sanctions. So, that's going
00:17:41to be a factor in all this, and that's why it was important we talked to them about it before our
00:17:45talks on Saturday. All right? Ambassador, does he? Go ahead.
00:17:52He almost said, in perpetuity, and then the little bit of diplomat in him, the tiny little
00:17:57infinitesimal aspect of diplomacy in him said, oh, don't say that.
00:18:03Well, basically, what he is demanding is perpetual subjugation of Iran and surrender of Iranian
00:18:10sovereignty, which is clearly a non-starter, and it doesn't do any good to articulate that kind of
00:18:19thing in public. There's another element here, and that is, I wouldn't be so sure about the Europeans.
00:18:24I don't think they share the American devotion to Mr. Netanyahu and his effort to emasculate Iran.
00:18:35I don't know how they'll come out. I mean, they have no particular reason at present to feel
00:18:42an obligation to ingratiate themselves with Donald Trump. So, we'll see.
00:18:48It's not something new, Professor Miranda, because we know when Donald Trump decided to withdraw from
00:18:57JCPOA, Mike Pompeo and Bolton did everything for these snapback sanctions. They put a lot of pressure
00:19:05on Europeans. It seems that Marco Rubio is feeling in the same position that Mike Pompeo was trying to
00:19:11do, and right now he feels that he can achieve that. Well, Trump was incompetent because, and so was
00:19:18Pompeo, because when Trump left the JCPOA, he automatically lost the right to push for the snapback
00:19:29because he was no longer a part of the P5 plus one, and therefore, he couldn't move to
00:19:35initiate the process for the snapback. So, he had to rely on the Europeans or they had to rely on the
00:19:42Europeans. But I think the snapback really isn't that important. It's not nearly, first of all,
00:19:48it's not as important as it was a decade ago because the world is changing. And in addition to that,
00:19:57all of the sanctions that would be put back in place as a result of the snapback,
00:20:01going back to the UN Security Council resolutions against Iran, all of those areas are already,
00:20:14Iran is already sanctioned in all of them. The United States and the Europeans have sanctioned Iran
00:20:20and they will sanction countries that cooperate with Iran in all those areas that are in the UN Security
00:20:29Council resolutions. And in addition to that, look at North Korea now. North Korea is sanctioned,
00:20:39but the Russians are ignoring the sanctions. So, UN Security Council resolutions nowadays don't carry
00:20:47the weight that they did a decade or a decade and a half ago. So, I don't think that if there is a
00:20:55snapback and then those resolutions are revived. And I think it was a mistake by the Iranian side to allow
00:21:03for the snapback provision in the first place. And this just, I think, reinforces the narrative
00:21:09of those forces in Iran who want to take a more assertive stance that we cannot deal with the West
00:21:16and that negotiating with the West is useless because Iran is in compliance with its commitments to the
00:21:28International Atomic Energy Agency. All of Iran's enriched uranium is legal. Whatever Iran is doing
00:21:34right now, even if it enriches tomorrow at 99.999%, it is legal within the framework of the International
00:21:43Atomic Energy Agency and the NPT, as long as there's no deviation towards nuclear weapons.
00:21:52And there's never been any sign of that. So, if they use the snapback provision, then in Iran they'll
00:22:00say, look, we cannot negotiate with these people. So, it hurts those forces in Iran who believe that we
00:22:08should deal with Americans and the Europeans and negotiate. But as I said, the UN Security Council
00:22:16resolutions today don't mean nearly as much as they did before. The Chinese and the Russians are not
00:22:21going, they're much stronger today. They're more, their conflict with the United States has reached new
00:22:29heights. I don't think that they're going to say, okay, now that the snapback provisions have been
00:22:37implemented or that it's been carried out and we have the UN Security Council's resolutions revived,
00:22:45we're no longer going to do A, B, C, or D with Iran.
00:22:51I think Professor Miranda is pointing to an issue that goes well beyond Iran, and that is
00:22:58the increasingly selective approach to honoring or not honoring or ignoring United Nations Security
00:23:07Council resolutions. We've seen in the case of the various attempts to bring peace to the Holy Land
00:23:16between Palestinians and Israelis that fundamental resolutions are now simply ignored by the United
00:23:26States. And indeed, the danger is that the Chinese and the Russians, who up to now have been very
00:23:34respectful of Security Council resolutions because they see them as reflecting a multilateral order
00:23:44rather than the United States alone, that they may follow the United States in becoming selective about
00:23:51what they enforce and what they don't. And this would be fundamentally damaging to the world order
00:24:00in a way that we're already seeing in some respects. For example, the U.S. approach to the World Trade
00:24:05Organization, which is essentially to ignore it and sabotage it. But others have the ability to do the same
00:24:14thing, if they choose to, and drawing on that precedent. So I think everyone should be very careful about
00:24:23setting precedents. You know, if you go in and detach Kosovo from Serbia, then you're not in a position to say
00:24:31that the borders of Europe are sacrosanct and can't be changed when somebody else does something like the
00:24:40Russians taking Crimea. So I think this is a very fundamental issue that we confront. And it mirrors
00:24:48the issues that Larry was referring to. And that is the defiance of court orders by the executive branch
00:24:57of the United States, the disregard of constitutional constraints, the erosion or indeed suspension of
00:25:04American freedoms. As we speak, there are two native born American citizens held by the Immigration and
00:25:12Customs Enforcement Agency, despite the fact that they're Americans, and that ICE has no jurisdiction over
00:25:18them. And there are court orders ordering them to release them, and they're being ignored. So we're seeing a
00:25:25breakdown of the rule of law domestically. How much can we now trust in the analog to the rule of law
00:25:35internationally? And I point out too that the President of the United States has made statements
00:25:41that would lead you to believe that he would like to send our native born citizen criminals to foreign prisons.
00:25:49And I think Mr. President Bukele would be happy to get paid to do it.
00:25:56Yes. Cash on a barrel head.
00:25:59Yeah.
00:26:00Larry, what Professor Maradi and Ambassador Freeman said about the situation and the world has changed,
00:26:11we can see this right now in terms of, we know that in those days of JCPOA and the negotiations between
00:26:18Iran and the United States, Russia and China somehow were helping the United States in putting pressure
00:26:25on Iran. They're not in the same position and they were before. And the region we know in those days,
00:26:32Saudi Arabia was fighting together with the United States was, they were attacking Yemenis.
00:26:40And right now, it's not the case anymore. Even with the tariffs in Europe, I don't see that Donald Trump
00:26:47has the upper hand to put pressure on Europe. How do you see Larry? Do you think that they're
00:26:54considering what the position they're in right now? I hope so. But I wouldn't guarantee you,
00:27:02not from the rhetoric that's coming from people like Pete Hexeth and Marco Rubio and the President
00:27:07himself, of course, which is all over the map. But the people who are speaking for the administration,
00:27:13though they may be disparate voices, are not sane people, in my view, and not working from any
00:27:20strategic sheet of music. They're simply working, if they were working from anything, from the latest
00:27:26pronouncements Trump makes, and trying to make headway under those if they're doing anything
00:27:32positive at all. I think a huge problem we have right now is what others are telling me and what
00:27:42I think Lisa Murkowski, we were talking about that before we went on the air, is hinting at.
00:27:47We're in significant danger here right now. And I mean significant danger, because he is and his
00:27:54acolytes are dismantling the very fabric of our republic. Now, they've proceeded to pace with foreign
00:28:01relations. There's no question about that. They've made a mess of our security relationships in the
00:28:06world. And for all intents and purposes, I think it's fair to say they're going to continue and make
00:28:11them more profound and deepen them. At the same time, they're destroying freedoms here in this country.
00:28:19They're destroying free speech under the guise of anti-Semitism. And I listened to Speaker Johnson
00:28:26yesterday telling me what he's going to do about this 30 point, whatever it is, 32 trillion or so
00:28:32aggregate debt right now. And at the same time, he was saying that he's not going to do anything
00:28:37about Social Security or Medicaid or Medicaid, not going to interfere with any of those things.
00:28:42Well, where are you going to find the money, Mr. Speaker? This is nonsense. We have a bunch of people
00:28:49in leadership positions in our government right now, who in both foreign and security policy
00:28:54and domestic policy are showing me that they are exactly what McGregor said they are, clowns. Or worse,
00:29:03their intent on something that is not going to be too healthy for the republic, if not destructive
00:29:10thereof. One of the problems that you can see, and I think this definitely affects the negotiations,
00:29:19with Iran, which are the subject of our conversation today, but is broader, is I don't think
00:29:26the administration has any genuine situational awareness. That is to say, it does not perceive
00:29:35the degree of anger that Europeans, for example, have developed toward the United States, the sense of
00:29:42betrayal that they are experiencing. Its handling of Mr. Zelensky, whatever you may think about Mr.
00:29:51Zelensky, was an example of a total lack of empathy. And its approach to Russia does not appear to rest
00:30:02on any understanding of Russian positions. You know, we're seeing, of course, it's perfectly understandable
00:30:10why Ukraine would now welcome a ceasefire, because it's losing the war. And perfectly understandable why
00:30:19the Russians, I think, would want to continue the war until they achieve the objectives they set for
00:30:25themselves, which they have been very careful in describing and which they have not wavered from.
00:30:32There's been no moving of the goalposts, really, in that war, unlike the way we do things where we
00:30:40don't have clear objectives. And so I fear that we're capable on the, if you will, on the intelligence
00:30:49side, on the perception of reality side of making terrible mistakes, and we're doing it. And I don't,
00:30:58I agree with Larry, I don't see how this stops. And just to pick up on another point, if you're looking
00:31:06across the Atlantic, you see a man who is about to be, we think, the Chancellor of Germany, who's talking
00:31:13about sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which changes the whole dynamic. These are very sophisticated
00:31:21missiles, they don't get any higher than 35 feet above the ground. They move at the speed of sound.
00:31:29The Russians probably do not have right now a countermeasure for them, they would probably develop
00:31:34one over time. But these missiles are designed and will have to be run by German technicians
00:31:39to go in and tear up targets that are, they're incredible missiles. They actually go in and climb
00:31:46as they get to their objective and come head down on them. The warhead will penetrate almost anything
00:31:52to a certain extent, normal concrete, rebar, things like that, and then it goes off inside whatever is
00:31:59penetrated. It's a very sophisticated missile. 150 to 160 of the 600 or so the Germans have,
00:32:06he's talking about sending to Ukraine. This is an escalation of the war. This is Germany in the war,
00:32:12for all intents and purposes. It's also us because these missiles cannot be effectively targeted
00:32:19without our assistance. Yeah. The intelligence support is essential.
00:32:24So I agree with you, Larry, this is incredibly irresponsible on the part of Mr. Meretz. But
00:32:32and it is controversial in Germany. Not everyone agrees with this, thank God.
00:32:39One thing that I'd just like to add, Nima, is that it wasn't as if the Russians and the Chinese
00:32:47were cooperating with Americans and the Europeans to impose the UN Security Council resolutions.
00:32:55The Russians and the Chinese back then were weaker and it was more difficult for them to resist
00:33:02the United States back then. So what they tried to do was they tried to water down the different
00:33:07resolutions, but ultimately they were forced to sign them because at that time the United States was
00:33:13still the hyper power and they were countries that were on the rise, but not where they are today.
00:33:22But there are a number of other things I think we also have to take into consideration and that is that
00:33:27not only are these countries stronger today, but their relationships with Iran have evolved.
00:33:32The Iranians and the Russians after Ukraine, the relationship has improved dramatically. I think
00:33:38everyone knows that. But the relationship between Iran and China after the tariff war has already
00:33:47shifted. It's already changed. And it was changing before that because the Chinese were anticipating the
00:33:55tariff war. So I don't believe that, for example, the United States, and I cannot swear to it,
00:34:02but I don't believe that the United States is going to be able to stop China from purchasing Iranian oil
00:34:07anymore. In fact, I think that the Chinese will probably be purchasing more Iranian oil than before
00:34:14if Iran has extra oil because China wants to confront the United States. China is looking for allies and
00:34:26partners. And of course, in our region, the only country that is independent of the Western camp
00:34:33is Iran. So the Arabian Peninsula, Turkey, none of these countries are going to tilt towards China.
00:34:44They may do business with China, but they're not going to choose China over the United States.
00:34:49And as I said, there are already signs that the relationship between Iran and China have been
00:34:55changing over the past couple of weeks. And then in addition to that, I think you have a number of crises
00:35:05that are moving forward simultaneously. The tariff war will begin to have an impact inside the United
00:35:16States within a few weeks, within a few months. Let's say I heard three months from an economist today.
00:35:23Of course, I'm not an economist, so maybe another economist would say something different.
00:35:28But let's say three months is true. On the other hand, by the end of May or the middle of May, the Russians,
00:35:38from what we are hearing from the Ukrainians, they are mobilizing. And if there is no peace, the Russians will
00:35:44possibly carry out larger assaults. So the war in Ukraine may intensify. The economy, the economic
00:35:55warfare being carried out will intensify. The impact will be felt. And then during this period of time,
00:36:02if there is, if the United States fails to behave reasonably towards the Iranians and the talks fail,
00:36:11then the Iranians want, the Americans want to also possibly carry out an airstrikes against Iran
00:36:17under these circumstances. And then you have a huge divide, as was alluded to by Chaz and Larry before.
00:36:26You have the internal divide in the United States. Polls, except for on one or two issues, are not
00:36:33favorable towards Trump, even with regards to some of these issues of immigration. For example, the US
00:36:43citizens who are being targeted, or green card holders. And this is becoming an issue in the United States. And
00:36:50while I don't, I don't approve of, and I don't support Sanders, Senator Sanders position on Palestine in Israel,
00:36:59and I think it's completely inhumane. But right now, the reason why his rallies are so huge, and states that are
00:37:07supportive of Trump, is because there is rising discontent. So, the months ahead could be
00:37:16very complicated, very messy. And I think it could be catastrophic for Trump.
00:37:24If you saw the video the other day, yesterday, as a matter of fact, of Senator Grassley going back to
00:37:30a town hall meeting, and his constituents ate his lunch. He hardly could get a word in. They were furious
00:37:37over the job layoffs, over the farm bill. You might imagine Iowa's our biggest farming state.
00:37:43They were furious. I think he got a real dose. And I think that's happening across the country,
00:37:48to a certain extent, with a lot of the ripple out effects. People don't understand, for example,
00:37:54that of the million or so workers that are connected with, or directly work for the DOD,
00:38:00many of them are out in the hustings. They're not in Washington. And these people are being laid
00:38:05off, or they're worried about their jobs, and they're Republicans, and they're reporting.
00:38:11They're reporting back. And this is just going to pick up steam as it goes along, as you said.
00:38:15Well, there is a saying, Professor Mirandi, that if you put all the economists in the world,
00:38:23line them all up, they still couldn't come to a conclusion.
00:38:26That's right.
00:38:28So I don't know about how long it's going to take, but it's very clear that the president is
00:38:37typically misdescribing reality. When he says that we're getting rich, prices are coming down.
00:38:44This is not what is happening. We have the same issue, I fear, in the Sino-American trade war,
00:38:54where the president says that we're in direct negotiations with the Chinese.
00:38:59But the Chinese don't agree that they are. I think they are in contact with us,
00:39:06because they believe that, as I do, that sound diplomacy, like warfare, requires you always to
00:39:14maintain contact with the enemy. If you don't, you get surprised. You get flanked.
00:39:21So they have maintained contact with us. But my sense is that they have no intention
00:39:28of dealing with Mr. Trump for all of the reasons of erratic behavior and previous
00:39:35experiences that we've all discussed. So I think we're having a domestic meltdown.
00:39:41I agree. I don't know on what time scale.
00:39:45But we're also having a meltdown in our international relationships.
00:39:50You know, tourism in the United States has collapsed as a result of a conjunction of these
00:39:56two factors. And we're coming up on a new academic year in terms of foreign student admissions.
00:40:03I think we're going to see a dramatic drop off. The universities are under attack by the administration.
00:40:09Now they will lose much of the revenue they've depended upon because it's foreign students who pay
00:40:14full freight at universities, not domestic students for the most part. So a lot of things are coming
00:40:20together. And I think we'll see how the Trump administration deals with them. My fear is that
00:40:30it will deal with them harshly, in an authoritarian manner. It will double down on the essential dictatorship
00:40:39that is being put in place. And we've had, we've seen, Larry mentioned, people being laid off.
00:40:48We have the Department of, I call it the Department of Government Incapacitation,
00:40:52Department of Government, which is ripping into everybody with a chainsaw. So I think there's a
00:41:01big backlash. And I would note last Saturday, there were 5 million people came out on the streets
00:41:09in the 50-51 movement to protest against the Trump policies. I suspect tomorrow there will be many more
00:41:17than 5 million people. The weather's better. People are more annoyed. And I think there is opposition
00:41:25building that in the end must have some effect. Even Mr. Trump had to surrender to the bond market
00:41:33when it went haywire. Professor Miranda, if we assume that the best case scenario for Marco Rubio,
00:41:43the Secretary of State, if he, if they're capable of putting pressure on Europe, the way that they're
00:41:54just Europe getting in line with the United States with the snapback sanctions, I would, how do you see
00:42:02the feeling that comes to the Iranian officials? Because what would be the meaning of NPT for Iran then?
00:42:11What would be the meaning of IAEA inspectors in Iran? Are they talking about these things in Iran?
00:42:20Well, at the moment, there's not a lot of talk about the sanctions and the snapback.
00:42:29But obviously, if the Europeans and Americans move in that direction, history has told us that the
00:42:35Iranians are going to move in the opposite direction. I have no doubt they'll put extra money into the
00:42:43nuclear program. They'll expand the nuclear program. They'll expand enrichment. They'll create new
00:42:50installations, new underground facilities. And these facilities, by the way, are not something that the
00:42:56Americans can destroy. Americans can destroy even if B-2 bombers and B-52 bombers bomb the nuclear
00:43:05installations. The key components of the installations cannot be destroyed by, I'm not even sure if nuclear
00:43:13weapons can destroy them, but they definitely cannot be destroyed by conventional weapons. The reason why,
00:43:19for example, last night, Trump carried out a really brutal and genocidal attack on Al-Hodeid, and he bombed the
00:43:28port, killing workers and port staff, and then killing medics and first responders who came to help them.
00:43:37It was a horrific attack, and you don't hear about it in the Western media. But it had nothing to do with Ansarullah. It had
00:43:46nothing to do with the Yemeni armed forces. But the reason why they're carrying out these atrocities is
00:43:54the same as Israel. Why are the Israelis murdering ordinary people in Gaza? Because they failed against the
00:44:00resistance. In Yemen, the Americans have been bombing Ansarullah bases, but they have failed to penetrate them,
00:44:08because they're deep underground. They've been built in the first place to protect, to be protected from U.S. airstrikes,
00:44:16to be protected from anything that the Saudis or the Americans can throw at them. So if the, so the Iranians would
00:44:25simply, if there was a move towards NAFAC, the Iranians would simply expand their nuclear program,
00:44:32cooperate less with the International Atomic Energy Agency. And as I said earlier, the impact would
00:44:38be very minimal. It will not have a, the Americans already have sanctioned everything. It's called
00:44:45maximum pressure sanctions for a reason, because they cannot do anything more than what they're doing
00:44:51already. The sanctions against Iran are even more extensive than the sanctions against Russia,
00:44:56because they need Russia to be able to export some oil. They need Russia to be able to export some gas.
00:45:03They have attempted to shut down all Iranian exports over the last decade. And, and Biden,
00:45:09by the way, never removed the maximum pressure sanctions. So if these are, if we go back to the,
00:45:16if those U.N. Security Council resolutions are revived, it won't have a huge impact on Iran.
00:45:22In those areas where it could have an impact, my belief is that the Russians and probably the Chinese
00:45:28will ignore them. And increasingly, so will countries in the region. You pointed out to something
00:45:35important earlier, and that is the region. Both Larry and Chaz, they, they know the other side of the
00:45:43the Persian Gulf much better than I. Chaz was a ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and of course,
00:45:50that he was the, the chief of staff of the secretary of state. The, the attitude in the Persian Gulf region
00:45:58is very different today from what it was a decade or a decade and a half ago. Back then they were egging on
00:46:04conflict with Iran. Now they're terrified of conflict with Iran. And, and one final point is that
00:46:13if the United States strikes Iran, Iran will strike back, but it will strike at Israel very hard. And
00:46:22it has the ability to hurt. It has the ability to really hurt Israel very badly. And they've held back
00:46:30for a host of reasons, which maybe on another occasion, we can, we can discuss that, but it will
00:46:37not go well for Israel. It will not go well for the region. It will not go well for the war world. And
00:46:42by the way, one of the few things that Trump is boasting about right now is the decline in energy prices.
00:46:50And I think maybe eggs, but if there is conflict, I don't know what will happen to the price of eggs,
00:46:57but I, I assure everyone that the price of energy will go through the roof.
00:47:02Of course. Nima, let me just say that there is no more, as a military professional,
00:47:09there would be no more opportune time to attack Israel right now, because Israel has got its plate
00:47:17so full that I contemplate in the next 30 to 45 days, either Netanyahu is going to be assassinated,
00:47:25or he's going to have to step down. That doesn't mean a good guy is going to come in. But that's how
00:47:31bad it's getting in Israel. If you've been following all these letters that are coming from
00:47:36every element in the security complex, everyone's angry with him for different reasons, but they're
00:47:41all angry with him. And they have bitten off more than they can chew in Syria, in Lebanon, in Gaza,
00:47:48and the West Bank. They've bitten off more than they can chew. The IDF itself is coming apart.
00:47:54Let me, let me have a moment to attack.
00:47:58If I can add something on the Persian Gulf dimension of this. There has been a contest for
00:48:06influence in the West, in West Asia, between Iran and the Gulf Arabs, and this played out in many
00:48:12contexts. Israel has basically ended most of that conflict by decimating Hezbollah, by removing Iran
00:48:23from Syria. It has, it has subdued for Saudi Arabia, the concerns that it had about Iranian hegemony in
00:48:34the region. And on the other hand, people in the Gulf and particularly the Saudis are now very concerned
00:48:42about Israel, Israeli behavior, and the menace of Israel, and what it would mean if Israel started
00:48:51a war in the region. And so, I have been watching, and I think I am seeing, and I believe Khalid bin
00:48:58Salman's visit to Tehran is a symptom of this, the gradual emergence of a coalition between Iran and
00:49:08the Gulf Arabs directed at balancing Israel. And by extension, attenuating dependence on the United
00:49:16States by those that Professor Morandi correctly described as in the Western camp in the region.
00:49:25They're not so much in the Western camp now. And that is a change. And you can see this,
00:49:32to go back to the mechanics of an attack on Iran. You know, everything concentrated in Diego Garcia.
00:49:40Why? Because the countries in the region don't want to be part of any attack on Iran.
00:49:48And I think it's important to note, there are three files where the Saudis and Iranians can cooperate.
00:49:55One is Syria. The Saudis are very worried. They're not happy with the Turks, and they're not happy with
00:50:00the Israeli regime. Lebanon, if the Saudis and the Iranians can work together in Lebanon, the divide
00:50:09that exists between Hezbollah and the government would be resolved, and that would strengthen the
00:50:16resistance, and Yemen. And so all of these would be very bad signs. And as Chaz rightly points out,
00:50:26these countries are in the Western camp, but the world is changing very rapidly. And while they're
00:50:33still closer to the United States than the Chinese and Russia or to Iran, but with the behavior that we're
00:50:42seeing in Washington, and also the behavior of the Israeli regime, it's, you know, in 2010,
00:50:50it was the everyone, I think most people thought that this region was nice and quiet,
00:50:57most in the West. And just before October the seventh, we saw Jake Sullivan say something quite
00:51:03similar again. But then in Tunisia, when some young man burned himself alive, not in the capital,
00:51:09but because of a local grievance, we saw ultimately that the whole region was in uproar and
00:51:17governments collapsed and regimes were removed. That could now happen again. The situation today
00:51:27across West Asia and North Africa is much worse. People are outraged by what's going on in Gaza. The
00:51:36economic situation is definitely not any better. The trade war is going to impact the whole world,
00:51:42by the way, it's going to make it. And the countries like Iran are probably going to be least effective.
00:51:46Iran, Cuba, you know, those who are sanctions, who are not a part of this global system, they'll be
00:51:52the least effective, but it's going to, the situation is not good. So Saudi Arabia and would be,
00:52:00is, I think, is making a smart move by trying to, and this was a big move. The son of the king,
00:52:11the brother of the crown prince, the minister of defense coming to Iran, and then the leader receiving
00:52:19him, usually a minister of defense does not visit, meet the leader. So I think that this, this is a sign
00:52:31that US influence in the region is decreasing the capability for, I'm not saying realignment, it's
00:52:39too early for that, but for an evolving relationship, is very, potential evolving relationship is very
00:52:47bad for the Israeli regime, and it's bad for Trump.
00:52:49Nima, we're seeing exactly what several of us predicted some years ago. I, in very graphic terms,
00:52:58Israel is a strategic liability, not a strategic asset. And it's being proven right now, day by day,
00:53:05hour by hour. That's a reminder that we should all take note of, that to make a defense commitment to
00:53:14someone else makes them a liability, unless they bring such impressive strength to your cause that
00:53:23they aggregate their power to your, and you're better off. That is emphatically not the case
00:53:30with Israel, and it never has been. Professor Murray, that's something that Zionist lobby in the United
00:53:37States should take into account, because even in the United States, people are seeing that who, who,
00:53:44who's behind the, uh, the, the arrests, who's behind the harassment of protesters, who's behind, uh,
00:53:53the immigration issue for, for American citizens, and, and, uh, uh, and, and others who are legally in
00:54:02the United States, and who is, as Jeffrey Sachs, his, uh, his, uh, that clip of his, which Trump himself,
00:54:11uh, reposted, who has caused all these wars for the United States. The rest of the world has turned
00:54:18against the Israeli regime. The, the globe and the region in particular is outraged, but even in,
00:54:25in the United States, we see, we saw the recent polls where the majority of Americans are, have
00:54:30turned against the Israeli regime. And if the situation in the United States continues as it
00:54:35is, and if the situation economically speaking, deteriorates as well, this is not, people are
00:54:41increasingly going to come to this conclusion that the regime, the Israeli regime is a liability.
00:54:47It's a burden, as rightly pointed out. None of this is good news for the Israelis. So they can,
00:54:53you know, they can, you know, cheer on the U.S. Air Force to, to bomb, uh, a place in Iran. Of course,
00:55:01those pilots may be killed or captured too, but ultimately the blowback, there will be blowback.
00:55:10And I think, uh, people increasingly in the United States, ordinary people, uh, they're going to be
00:55:17pointing fingers at the Zionist lobby, the Israeli regime, and, uh, nothing is forever.
00:55:22We, uh, we can all, I think we all agree that we can expect a rise in discontent
00:55:32in the United States. Um, you've put your finger on one element of it, which is that, uh, uh, some
00:55:40elements of the Jewish communities in the United States have become ardent, uh, attackers of freedom
00:55:47of speech, uh, freedom of assembly, the right to petition the government for the redress of wrongs
00:55:54and other rights that Americans take, uh, seriously and, and believe in. But I think there's another
00:56:00element here, and that is, uh, I love the phrase that Rana Faruha came up with the other day when she
00:56:08described our system as Caligula capitalism. Uh, and that is taking its toll too.
00:56:19Yeah. Professor Miranda, before wrapping up this session, I think the other
00:56:26thing that was so much important was the letter from the Supreme Leader of Iran to Russian president.
00:56:33And what, what, what does that mean in your opinion? Well, I'll keep it short because Larry was speaking
00:56:42and I, uh, interrupted him. So I'll, I'll leave the last word for Larry, but, uh, I, I think, uh, it just,
00:56:51uh, it reinforces what, uh, we've been talking about. The relationship between Iran and Russia
00:56:56Russia has, uh, has, uh, reached new heights. And if you look historic at the, at the history of the
00:57:04relationship, we never had good relations with the Russians historically. We have a pretty poor history
00:57:11with the Russians. In fact, they occupied parts of our country and they've taken away parts of other
00:57:17parts of our country. So it took a very, it, it took a very long, it would take hundreds of years to, to fix
00:57:25that. And it sort of reminds me of Iraq under normal certain conditions. It would take hundreds of
00:57:30years to fix that. It reminds me of Iraq. I fought in the war in Iraq and so hundreds of thousands of
00:57:37Iraqis and Iranians fought more than maybe hundreds of thousands. People lost sons, husbands, children,
00:57:44parents, parents. After the war, and even after the fall of Saddam Hussein, when I would travel to Iraq
00:57:56and, or when others would go, they would speak about friction that existed between Iranians and
00:58:01Iranians and Iraqis at the airport, at shops in different places. But after ISIS invaded Iraq,
00:58:10the ISIS, Mr. Erdogan and NATO and Qatar and others were funding, after they invaded Iraq and the Iranians
00:58:20went to the aid of Iraqis and they fought together, the relationship between Iranians and Iraqis
00:58:29changed completely. I mean, there's always friction between different people. It's normal. But the
00:58:38relationship of the past literally disappeared. And what the United States has succeeded in doing between
00:58:45Iran and Russia is to create a relationship where the shadow of the past isn't that visible anymore.
00:58:54Larry? It's extraordinary what we've done in the world to increase the power of our erstwhile enemies.
00:59:07You can't pick a spot other than perhaps Tokyo, Japan. You can't pick Korea. You can't pick Taiwan either.
00:59:16But you can't find a spot where we haven't enhanced the depth of our jeopardy. It's incredible when you think
00:59:22about it. And what worries me, too, about that very thing coming down to a microcosmic example that
00:59:30could become cataclysmic, that's Yahoo will do anything to survive. If he doesn't get his war with
00:59:37Iran, he'll make one. Then what do we do?
00:59:42Basar, before wrapping up, do you have something to add?
00:59:49No, I think that sums it up. This has been a delightful, optimistic conversation.
01:00:00Thank you so much for being with us today. Great pleasure to have you on.
01:00:04Thank you very much, Bob. Thanks for having us.