Elizabeth Garner | Bigger Picture
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00:00The Bigger Picture is on this Beasley Media Station. I'm Baze Jr.
00:04And joining me today on the Zoom is Elizabeth Gardner from WREL.
00:09Good morning. How are you doing?
00:10Good morning. I'm doing great. How are you?
00:12I'm doing great. Now, the topic of conversation this morning is the 2022 hurricane season.
00:19And it's getting ready to kick off this Wednesday, June the 1st.
00:22What are some of the pre-predictions looking like?
00:25Well, so it's likely to be another somewhat active year.
00:29We have another La Nina year.
00:31We've seen that the last couple of years, and we've had very active seasons.
00:35But there's reason to believe that maybe this season won't be quite as active as other seasons.
00:40If you look back through history, you can see when La Nina years come in threes,
00:45the third one in a row tends to be a little less active than the other two.
00:49So this is the third year in a row that we've seen a La Nina season.
00:52La Nina seasons tend to be more active than normal,
00:55but we're thinking that maybe we'll be back closer to normal this season.
00:59Now, Ned, do you think hurricanes are getting stronger because of climate change?
01:05So certainly it looks like that.
01:06So if you think about it, warm air holds a lot of moisture.
01:10So the more we warm the planet, the more moisture the air can hold.
01:14And so these hurricanes are holding more and more rain.
01:17They're dumping more rain.
01:18They're able to become more powerful because they can hold more warm.
01:24Hurricanes are different than regular low-pressure systems that we see coming across the United States
01:29because they're warm core.
01:30They feed off of that warm moisture coming off of the ocean.
01:34And so the warmer it is, the warmer those ocean temperatures are, the stronger the storms are.
01:39And sometimes they're more frequent, too.
01:40Of course, in 2020, we saw the most storms recorded in history during a hurricane season in the Atlantic.
01:47And last year was the third.
01:49So we're really starting to see more of these storms,
01:52and they're becoming stronger and dumping a lot more rain, too.
01:55Now, what does getting prepared for the hurricane season really, truly mean?
02:01So we do talk about that all the time.
02:03We say you need to get ready for the hurricane season.
02:05And there are really a couple of ways to look at that.
02:08There's physically getting ready, and then there's mentally getting ready.
02:11So physically getting ready, you should just always have some non-perishable foods around.
02:16But that holds true for winter storms, too.
02:18Anytime that we might lose power, whether it's during an ice storm or during a hurricane or even just during thunderstorms,
02:25if it's widespread, it takes a long time for the power companies to get to you.
02:29You want to have some non-perishable food on hand.
02:32You want to have a way to get weather information.
02:36You want to have ways to keep your cell phones charged so that you can know what's happening with weather.
02:42If you have a hurricane come through and you lose power, you want to know, are we clear, are we not, that sort of thing.
02:49For us, we don't evacuate.
02:51We're far enough inland.
02:53But the one thing that people have to remember, they think, well, all the damage or most of the damage,
02:58most of the deaths happen near the coast.
03:00And that's actually not true.
03:02In the last 20 years, people on the coast have gotten smart, and they do come inland and they evacuate.
03:09So then the biggest number of people that die or are hurt during hurricanes actually drive their car into floodwaters.
03:17And that is right here in our area.
03:20So that's the biggest statistic there.
03:23So the big thing that we try to push when we're getting into hurricane season is, you know,
03:27be prepared in terms of, you know, having, you know, flashlights, batteries, non-perishable foods.
03:32But think about what's going to happen when a hurricane comes through.
03:35If the path looks like it's coming across your area, know that you need to stay put.
03:41You know, even just a little bit of water.
03:43It can be, you know, six inches to a foot of water.
03:45It can wash your car away.
03:46And once it washes your car away, getting somebody to help you in enough time to save your life is not easy.
03:54You know, those are tough rescues, and they don't always happen.
03:57So our number one killer in terms of hurricanes is flooding on the roads that people drive into.
04:03So we like to push that really hard.
04:05So, you know, keep in mind, you want to plan to have everything in place physically.
04:10But think about what you're going to do when that hurricane comes through.
04:13You want to stay put.
04:14And it's a little bit hokey, but the saying is turn around, don't drown.
04:19Now, as soon as you mentioned driving your car into flooded waters,
04:23I thought about the Federal PD when they actually rescued someone right off of a Robeson Street.
04:30And it was a really dramatic kind of rescue, and it actually went viral on the Internet.
04:36There are plenty of those that you see, which is great.
04:40You know, some people get lucky and get rescued.
04:42But when we look at the statistics, boy, there are so many that don't.
04:45So you don't want to be a statistic.
04:47Now, what are some of the interesting facts of hurricanes?
04:50Well, there are a lot of them, actually.
04:56You know, we, you know, have, you know, like I said,
05:00we've had some of the highest totals of hurricanes that we've seen on record
05:06just in the last few years, for one.
05:08Do you have any specific questions about?
05:13Now, Matt, how do you guys measure the strength of a hurricane?
05:18You know, that's a really good thing to bring up, because to measure hurricanes based on wind speed,
05:25but that's really only one factor.
05:27Wind does a lot of damage.
05:29It does the most of the water.
05:31Like, people die during hurricanes because of flooding.
05:35So the Duncan Cain Center and the World Meteor Association have been thinking about ways to sort of recalibrate
05:48or, you know, just come up with different ways to categorize them.
05:52You know, the Saffir-Simpson scale is only based on wind.
05:55But they haven't come up with anything yet to say, hey, this is going to be a storm that produces a lot of heavy rain.
06:02One of the ways that you can watch that for yourself is if a storm is moving very slowly,
06:07it's going to have more time to dump a lot of heavy rain.
06:10If it's moving fast, it's not going to sit over you and dump as much rain.
06:13And, you know, you can watch that on the radar or you can watch TV.
06:16Or you can take a look at what the National Hurricane Center is showing with these storms.
06:22But that's a hint.
06:23You know, we're really looking, especially in our area, about the rain.
06:27Wind can do some damage, but the rain is going to be, you know, the most deadly thing for us, for sure.
06:32Now, I know at WRAL, you guys have some great new technology.
06:36Talk to me about some of the technology that you guys use to say, hey, look, it's going this way.
06:42That's right.
06:43So we have the dual Doppler radar.
06:45And, of course, that shows us where the rain is, how much rain has fallen.
06:49And so that's a big thing.
06:50We can show you what we're expecting in terms of who's going to see the most rainfall,
06:54where's the flooding most likely to happen.
06:56A lot of times inland where we are, we also see tornadoes.
07:00And, of course, the dual Doppler 5000 radar is also a great tool for tracking tornadoes.
07:04We can see where the spin is in the atmosphere.
07:06We can track that spin and say, hey, you know, it looks like it's coming over Fayetteville in the next 10 minutes
07:12or it's coming over Stedman in the next 15 minutes.
07:15So we're east over or, you know, any part of the viewing area.
07:18We can say, hey, this is this is coming through your neighborhood and it's time to get it into your safe place.
07:23So those are really good tools to protect people.
07:26We think about tornadoes a lot of times in the spring.
07:28We see them.
07:29We also see them during hurricanes or tropical systems.
07:32And so that's another thing that when you're thinking about being prepared, you also have to think about, well, what if a tornado comes through during this hurricane?
07:41Where do I need to be now?
07:43How do hurricanes get their names and how did those names get retired?
07:48Sure.
07:48Sure.
07:49Back in the 1950s, hurricanes started to get names for a couple of reasons.
07:54One is just to keep them straight.
07:57Prior to that, they were all named numbers.
07:59Number one, number two, number three.
08:01But in the 1950s, insurance companies were getting more involved.
08:06And if you had some damage, the insurance company, you know, would reimburse you for it.
08:09And so they kind of pushed for a better way to name the storm so that they weren't getting confused.
08:17And for forecasters, too, it's easy.
08:19I mean, I've been forecasting hurricanes in the Atlantic where there were four of them at one time.
08:24And so having the names is just an easier way to track them.
08:27It's easier to keep up with them.
08:29For example, if we had every year names one through 15, who would remember Katrina or Andrew or, you know, Sandy?
08:42Those names really stick out and you remember them versus, you know, oh, it was number five from, you know, 1993.
08:50Or was it number six from 19?
08:52You know, so it's just a lot harder to keep track of.
08:54And those storms that do a lot of damage and cause a lot of death are retired.
09:00And the World Meteorological Organization is the one that keeps track of those names.
09:05There are names that come out in the list.
09:08They have six years in advance of names.
09:11And so some of them are recycled.
09:14For example, Hurricane Bonnie, I think because it's early in the year, sometimes the storms aren't as strong early in the year.
09:20So I think I've tracked maybe three different hurricane bodies in my career.
09:26But the F storms, you know, it's a little later in the year.
09:30So many of those, you know, Fran, Floyd, Florence, we think of all of those.
09:35They get to a certain level of, you know, of damage or deaths.
09:40And the World Meteorological Organization will vote to retire that name.
09:45You know, you just don't want to ever have another Floyd or Fran.
09:48Or another Gilbert, right?
09:50Now, can hurricanes take place outside of hurricane season?
09:58Absolutely.
09:59The earliest tropical system on record happened on January 3rd.
10:04And let's see, I think I wrote down what year that was.
10:06January 3rd, 1938.
10:08And the last one was December 30th, 1938.
10:11So all year long, we can have tropical systems.
10:14Some of those are subtropical systems, meaning they're sort of a hybrid between a regular low pressure system
10:20and a tropical system.
10:21But they would still count in the names.
10:23Now, recently, we've had more and more storms developing in May.
10:27Again, part of the reason for that is because we're seeing our atmosphere warm more.
10:31So it's getting warmer earlier in the season.
10:34So the storms are starting a little bit earlier.
10:36So the hurricane center has thought maybe we'll move the start of the hurricane season to May 15th.
10:43They didn't do it for this year, but we'll keep watching.
10:45They may decide for 2023 that they're going to push the start of the season to May 15th.
10:51So that's something we have our eye on.
10:52The season lasts all the way to the end of November.
10:55So it's a good chunk of the year already.
10:58Now, what are hurricanes called when they form on the West Coast?
11:03On the West Coast, they're also called hurricanes.
11:06We don't see a lot of hurricanes on the West Coast of the United States
11:10because hurricanes feed off of warm water.
11:13So off the coast of the East Coast of the United States, we have an ocean current called the Gulf Stream,
11:18and it comes right out of the tropics.
11:21And a lot of people have certainly heard of the Gulf Stream,
11:24that river of warm water that comes right out of the tropics off the coast of North Carolina and off the East Coast.
11:30And so that makes the East Coast of the United States a really good breeding ground for tropical systems.
11:37On the West Coast, it's exactly the opposite.
11:39The ocean current comes from Alaska, and it comes from the north.
11:44And so there's just not a lot of fuel for those storms.
11:47Now, you'll see plenty of them down in Mexico, sometimes, you know, over toward Hawaii.
11:52But we don't really have hurricanes off the coast of the West Coast of the United States.
11:57And other parts of the world, they call them other things.
11:59In the Pacific, you know, around Asia or India, they call them typhoons.
12:05I think down in Australia, they call them willy-willies.
12:10So in other parts of the world, they call them other things.
12:13But yeah, hurricanes for us.
12:17All right.
12:17Now, before we get out of here, throughout all your hurricane seasons,
12:22though, what is the one thing that sticks out to you the most?
12:27So I, my earliest memory of covering hurricanes was when I first came to WRAL.
12:36I'm from Raleigh originally.
12:38But I started, and I guess I started down in Wilmington doing weather at WECT.
12:43But we didn't have any, I was only there for a year.
12:45We didn't have any hurricanes that year.
12:47I spent three years out in Spokane, Washington, which, of course, in Washington State, we had no hurricanes.
12:51So I came back here to WRAL, and we had a Hurricane Bonnie.
12:56It was 1998.
12:58I'd never covered a hurricane before.
13:00And they sent me with this, and my photographer, there were a bunch of us that went to cover the storm,
13:05several reporters, me, several photographers.
13:07And we went down to Moorhead City, because it looked like it might make landfall somewhere off Moorhead City,
13:14that area, those beaches.
13:15And they sent us down with a big Rubbermaid bin of non-perishable foods, you know, crackers and tuna and that sort of thing.
13:26And I'm like, okay, this is good.
13:27I like camping, so this is going to be fine.
13:30And we go down to the hotel, and the first night we stayed over on the beach, but the next night we had to pull back inland.
13:35And so we're staying in a hotel right there in Moorhead City, and it started to really intensify during the day.
13:41The wind was howling, and they, you know, they said, it's your first one.
13:47So you need to know that the power will go out, and, you know, restaurants will be open, so that's why they send you this food.
13:52I'm like, okay, that's all fine, no big deal.
13:55But we started to get closer to midnight, and all of a sudden, the wind started to tear the shingles off the roof of the hotel,
14:03but they were metal shingles.
14:04So they made this awful flapping noise, flap, flap, flap, flap, and already in my hotel room, I was on the top floor.
14:11Why didn't I say I don't want to be on the top floor?
14:14Again, I was a rookie.
14:15I didn't know.
14:16And so it was raining in the roof.
14:19You know, water was coming, you know, just coming in.
14:22My bed was soaking wet.
14:24You know, water's coming through the roof.
14:26And then, you know, we're here.
14:28The shingles are starting to come off the roof as well.
14:32We were outside.
14:32We just wrapped up our broadcast for the 11 o'clock newscast.
14:36I'm standing there looking at my photographer.
14:40I'm like, okay, what do we do now?
14:43The power just had gone off in the hotel.
14:45The hotel is leaking.
14:47The shingles are coming off.
14:48We went inside, and we sat in the lobby because I didn't want to go up to the fourth floor.
14:53We just sat there.
14:54And I think we all, there were maybe four of us with WRAL.
14:57We just sat there until about 2 o'clock in the morning.
15:00And nothing got worse.
15:02And so, finally, we all decided, all right, we're going to brave it.
15:06Everybody's going to go to bed.
15:07And it was fine.
15:09But I tell you what, you know, when all that really started to intensify, I'm like, I don't
15:13know about this.
15:15But we were lucky.
15:16I say that.
15:17You know, we're always telling people to evacuate and get out of the way of the storm.
15:21And it certainly wasn't strong enough to do any major damage where we were, but it was
15:27my first experience.
15:29It did definitely make me nervous.
15:31No, no.
15:32What was the adrenaline like when you guys were going in and all the cars were coming out?
15:38Well, you know, I wasn't too worried about it.
15:41I mean, I guess that's the thing about being a meteorologist.
15:44You feel like you have a good bit of knowledge about the storm.
15:48And I always joke about this, but because I know they care about us.
15:52But we, at that point, were traveling with a very, very expensive satellite trunk.
15:59And I tell you what, we would get in trouble if we put that satellite trunk in danger.
16:05So that kept all of us safe.
16:06So we never were getting into a place where we thought the winds were going to be strong
16:10enough to do any major damage.
16:12But still, that one time, I was a little bit nervous.
16:16We also ended up, just a couple of years later, covering Floyd.
16:21And we were closer to Charleston for that.
16:26And we were, we actually had to move around because we got into a spot where we thought
16:30it was going to be safe.
16:31And then we started watching and the hurricane turned a little bit.
16:34We're like, oh, we need, we need to move.
16:36So we got out of our hotel and, and, and moved.
16:40But then we moved into an area where it looked like it was coming.
16:43So we're like, all right, we've got to go back.
16:45So we moved back down toward Charleston, but you know, everything was closed.
16:48There was no power.
16:49We couldn't get back into our hotel.
16:51So what were we going to do for the night that night?
16:53One of the reporters had come across some people.
16:57I don't know whether she had just seen lights on in the building, but there was a law firm
17:02and all the, all the, the office workers had come there because it was a, it was a low brick
17:08building.
17:09It looked like it was going to be super safe.
17:11And so they let us all just sleep on the floor.
17:13I mean, you know, you're talking about an office floor, you know, carpets like this thick,
17:17you know, that floor is hard, no blanket, no pillow.
17:20So yeah, that was a good night's sleep.
17:23Right now, before we get out of here, is there anything else you'd like to add?
17:28Well, we can go back over, you know, just, you know, here we go, another hurricane season.
17:33And you'll hear from us and a lot of other sources, oh, is this going to be, you know,
17:38a really active season?
17:39Is this not going to be an active season?
17:41But it doesn't really matter that much.
17:43You know, one hurricane coming through your area, you know, is major impact, whether it's
17:48a, as a busy season or it's not a busy season, we can have very busy seasons with nothing
17:53affecting North Carolina, or we can have a season that's a pretty slow season with a
17:58lot of impact in North Carolina.
18:00So just be weather aware, make sure that you're watching us at WRAL or just, you know, just
18:05making sure you're watching the weather, especially as these storms are coming through.
18:08We'll let you know everything you need to know, you know, right now, you know, before
18:12we really get into the bulk of the season, it's a good idea, like I said, you know, put
18:16together a little box like they used to give us when we cover hurricanes, you know, with
18:20some non-perishable foods, flashlights, batteries, that sort of thing.
18:24And then just, you know, just keep tuned here and, you know, we'll let you know what's going
18:28on, how to stay safe.
18:29And if you happen to lose that power, you can always listen to any of the Beasley media
18:34stations, especially Fox 399, because WRAL will find you and get you the information that
18:41you need.
18:41That's right.
18:42Yes.
18:43We are proud to provide your weather forecast every day.
18:46All right.
18:47It's been a pleasure.
18:48And when we get back, we're going to talk with one of your colleagues, Gilbert Bays.
18:52I like to call him Pop.
18:54I bet you do.
18:56All right.
18:57More of the finger pictures on the way, right here on this Beasley media station.
19:00Good morning.
19:01Good morning.
19:01Good morning.