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Attack this runout using MDA in 3Bet Pots
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Transcript
00:00what's up guys it's doo-doo poker we're back here with another three bet pot spot but this time
00:13we're going to compare theory to mda and i want to show you guys why mda actually works
00:20so we're going to go on a very common spot uh button opens again small blind three bets i want
00:29to show you this real quick the reason i'm the reason i'm showing you small blind versus button
00:34is because it's the most important three bet pot spot if you look at gto wizard and you look at
00:41practice priority you see that small blind versus button has the highest practice priority because
00:49it's the most frequent spot um in three bet pots so that's the reason why i keep harping on small
00:56blind versus button uh okay so let's continue so button opens small blind three bets king eight two
01:04two-tone board right so we know this is a range bet okay and i wanted to show you guys where the
01:12population is deviating from a solver so let's say we bet one third here right let's say button calls
01:21the turns of three of spades let's see what flush draws should always be checking this turn now
01:30remember population over barrels their flush draws they bet their flush draws too much and they don't
01:37protect their checking range so let's see what flush draws should basically always be checking turn
01:43ace queen of clubs always a check ace eight of clubs high frequency check
01:50ten eight of clubs high frequency check nine eight of clubs always check eight seven of clubs always
01:56checked okay so there are the pair plus flush draws are high frequency checked and ace queen of clubs is
02:05basically always checked okay so population is not doing this okay so when we're verse a bet check bet line
02:16from the small blind the oop pfr they're not going to have enough flushes in their range so let's say
02:26the turn we check the turn okay or small blind checks the turn we're the button we check back
02:33all right we check back let's say the river comes a 10 of clubs now our opponent decides to bet let's say
02:44he bets 40 pot now he's not going to have since he checked turn remember most of the flush draws
02:53in population barrel but in the solver a lot of them check so he's not going to have ace queen of clubs
02:59because he didn't check it on the turn he's not going to have nine eight of clubs because he didn't
03:05check it on the turn ace eight of clubs same thing so when they bet on the river we can over bluff
03:13as button right if we're button we know they over barrel flush draws on the turn so now we can attack
03:21the river okay now i want to show you um let's say let's say we have a hand like
03:30uh let's see maybe like pocket fives okay let's say we have pocket fives with a club we decide to
03:40call flop because it was really small and then we decide to turn our hand into a bluff
03:44so let's say we jam pocket fives all right so here you can do this again you're risking 79.75
03:58and you're trying to win 55 so let's do the math 55 plus 79.75 hold on a second okay so it's 134
04:1675 so now we use uh the mdf formula so this is to get alpha so mdf is minimum defense frequency
04:24one minus alpha equals mdf alpha is the folding frequencies okay so what you do is use 79.75
04:32divided by 134.75 and look we get 59.1 exactly what it is okay so we need them to fold 59 of the time
04:45let's go look at mba and see how often they're folding this is this is blinds versus button
04:53bet 30 check bet for reg mba okay now these are over a thousand hand samples if you combine the two
05:01uh river third to flush so we know the samples are good so look here let's go to the we know it's not
05:10it's not over bluffed okay but if you go to the right fold call raise look at the folding frequency
05:21the folding frequency is 66 to 67 percent now you compare that frequency
05:27to this frequency and it's 59 and you see there's a seven to eight percent gap now you can even
05:35manipulate the alpha if you want to raise smaller let's say we didn't even have to raise all in
05:42because a lot of small blinds bet check that call range will be inelastic so let's say we decide to
05:49raise 53 instead of 79 now alpha is 49 percent right so we just we got 10 percent less folding
06:00frequency and your opponent is pretty much inelastic so the reason why let's let's go back to the
06:09beginning so let's see where the disconnect is the disconnect between a population and a solver
06:20well there's no disconnect on the flop because it's ranged right on the turn is where the disconnect
06:25happens the disconnect happens because they're not checking ace queen of clubs they're not checking
06:33ace eight of clubs they're betting these too much that's the first thing the first thing is they're not
06:38protecting their range when a flush completes on the river so in their bet check bet range when a flush
06:45completes river they're not protecting their range that's the first very important point second very
06:51important point is let's say we jam what is their calling range you think anyone's calling with king
07:00six suited do you think your opponent is going to call with pocket jacks let's say let's say they bet
07:09small on the flop decide to go for thin value with a blocker bet or with queens are they really going to
07:15call with queen of clubs queen x probably not right so they're over folding their bluff catchers
07:20so it's two points they don't protect their checking range because they bet too many flush draws in the
07:29turn and they over fold their bluff catchers this is why this is why you see an over fold those are the two
07:39main points they don't protect their range and they over fold their zero ev bluff catchers so if you're on
07:51the button and you're facing a bet check bet line from your opponent and a flush completes on the river
07:57always over bluff it because it'll be over folded mda teaches us this so this is why mda actually works
08:08all right guys i just wanted to show you that and i hope uh you enjoyed it and i'll see you in the next video