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Should We Bluff Catch or Bluff Raise?
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Transcript
00:00what's up guys it's doo-doo poker here back for another video so today we're going to be doing
00:10a formula video i'm going to be comparing the bluff catching formula to the bluff raising
00:20formula so the question is is in over bluff spots should we bluff catch or bluff raise
00:29on the river in an over bluff spot so you know the call is going to be profitable regardless but we
00:35want to see what is more profitable okay so i'm going to give you we're going to look at the mda
00:40i'm going to give you a hand and then we're going to figure this out on our own so this is the field
00:45as the three bet pot at a position pre-flop razor blinds verse button okay so this is the field in
00:53the check call 30 stab check and they bet river okay so we know gto for bet 70 is 30 weeks so we
01:02know this is eight percent over bluffed right we also know they fold 71 percent of the time to a raise
01:10okay so let's try to figure this out let's say you have a zero ev bluff catcher in theory
01:17and then we'll try to figure out what is higher ev okay so let's let's give ourselves a hand so this
01:24is button opens 2.5x small blind three bets and we're going to give um the button so we're the
01:33button here we're going to give the button pocket fives so we're giving ourselves pocket fives okay
01:37so on the flop our opponent decides to check on an eight of spades seven of spades three of diamonds okay
01:45now we're the we're the um the button we decide to stab okay now this doesn't have 30 so we're to
01:54use 20 but we're gonna figure this out on our own okay so the small blind calls all right the turn
02:02is a two of clubs the turn goes check check we decide to check back with our pocket fives okay
02:08river comes a king now our opponent bets now again we don't have exact sizings it's actually 70 percent
02:17in the um data but let's say small blind bets 61 percent okay so we have pocket fives here we have a
02:25zero ev bluff catcher with let's say we have five of hearts five of diamonds okay so we know in theory
02:30zero ev but we know in practice it's going to be a positive ev call okay so but we have to figure out
02:41what is higher ev because we know that calling is positive ev all right so let's look at the formulas
02:47so the bluff catching formula is your edge so let's do the bluff catching formula first right bluff catching
02:56your edge remember eight percent right because gto is 30 and it's 38 so call
03:06so let's see so he bets 61 percent right so let's go here so that would be 21.5 call
03:1821.5 plus oops plus bet which is 21.5 plus the pot so what's the pot
03:31the pot is 35 okay so you figure this out we have a calculator so we we're not gonna
03:38die from math so this is we can actually just figure this out here uh 43 plus 35
03:46is 78 is 78 8 8 times 78 is
03:556.24 big blinds so we know in this spot whoops we know in this spot 6.24 big blind
04:09expected value positive okay that's for bluff catching now let's go to bluff raising now let's
04:18see what our edge is here so we know they fold 71 percent right okay so let's say we're gonna have to do
04:28this in our heads so let's say button open 2.5 x right and small blind
04:39three bet to 12 okay so 12 would be 88 stack this is 100 bb stacks remember so 88 stack right okay on the
04:51flop he stabs he stabs 8 big blinds so now it's 80 try to try to stay with me here okay
04:5680 bb stack okay now it's check check on the turn okay so we know the pot is 12 12 1 because the big blind so
05:0724 24 i mean 25 plus 8 plus 8 plus 8 is 41 so 41 big blinds okay now he bets 70 percent which is
05:16what's 70 percent of 41 29 right okay so we have an 80 bb stack right so we're risking 80 big blinds
05:25plus risk plus reward i cannot spell okay so we're risking 80 to win 70 so what is that if i'm risking 80 to win 70
05:46it's 53.3 okay keep that in your mind what's the folding frequency 71 so there's an 18 percent
05:58discrepancy okay 18 percent discrepancy between 71 and 53 so let's go back to the formula
06:08hey if it were easy everyone would do it all right let's go so let's go to bluff raising
06:12edge edge is 18 percent right your raise is going to be 80
06:24your bet is going to be 29 and the pot is 41 so let's figure this math out what's 18 percent times 150
06:35now remember bluff catching was 6.24 bb expected value what's 18 percent times 150 150 times 18
06:4927 look at the difference
06:54bluff raising 27 bb expected value now there is some napkin math going on because the sizings aren't exact
07:02but it shows you just the discrepancy between bluff catching and bluff raising so what is the verdict
07:10the verdict is
07:13bluff raising will always be more profitable than bluff catching in zero ev bluff catching spots that's the
07:23verdict that's a reg mda principle remember another reg mda principle i said in the previous video
07:30a reg mda principle if a spot is over bluffed by definition it's over folded you might want to
07:38write these down by the way if a spot is over bluffed by a reg it is by definition over folded that's one
07:45mda principle reg mda principle the second reg mda principle bluff raising will always be more profitable
07:53than bluff catching in a zero ev spot okay so we got through this and now we can prove our theorem with
08:01math that bluff raising is superior to bluff catching all right guys i know there's a lot to take in
08:10hopefully we got through it and i will see you in the next video