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00:00If you're going to take on the Chicago White Sox,
00:02you got to make it worth it.
00:042.11 p.m. Eastern time.
00:06First pitch today inside Kauffman Stadium in KC.
00:09Some afternoon baseball.
00:10The Royals, a now $2.50 favorite DRS against the Sox.
00:15Total stands at 8.50.
00:17Will KC continue its winning win?
00:18Yeah, you might say that's crazy.
00:19Over a $2 price here for Kansas City.
00:21Who's actually on the mound?
00:22Is it Big Game James from back in the day?
00:24No, it's actually Chris Bubich.
00:25He's doing very well again this season.
00:2741 innings pitch.
00:28How about an ERA of under two?
00:29It's actually listed at 1.98.
00:31His XFIP number, 3.65.
00:33Very manageable.
00:34Then you take a look at Davis Martin,
00:35who might as well be Dean Martin out there
00:36on the mound for the White Sox.
00:38He's got a 3.52 ERA, which you like,
00:40but a higher XFIP number of 4.38.
00:43So let's take a look at the correlation with these pitchers
00:45and how they actually match up.
00:46You take a look at Bubich.
00:47Not much that you don't love.
00:48Last year's statistics, only 140 batters.
00:51Stellar.
00:51This year's statistics, already over that at 168 batters.
00:54How about an ISO against of 0.91?
00:56Fantastic.
00:57Weighted on base percentage of 270.
00:59Fantastic.
00:59Not a huge K-rate guy, but doesn't give very many free passes here
01:03on the bases per walks.
01:04Then you look at the Chicago White Sox lineup,
01:06and it seems like it's an everyday occurrence.
01:09Who would you like in this lineup?
01:10Well, Luis Robert actually threw 37 at-bats against left-handed pitching,
01:13a .233 ISO, and a weighted on base percentage of .382.
01:16You also take a look at Carroll ripen ahead of him,
01:19only 20 at-bats, but a .420 weighted on base percentage.
01:21Everybody else below the bar.
01:23So, if you just pitch around one or two guys, Bubich really should have a day here,
01:27which is why their favorite's so high.
01:28But also, Martin on the other side does struggle with lefty and righty batters here.
01:32Low K-rate, so the ball should be in play.
01:34If you're looking for a guy in this lineup every single day,
01:36it's usually Bobby Witt and Mikel Garcia as the two go-to options.
01:40They should win in a lower-scoring game.
01:42I don't even know if you want to take a look at a team total for the Royals itself,
01:45because I don't think they need very many runs, and the pressure's going to be on.
01:48And they are the home team, which probably means, Ben, only eight at-bats as opposed to nine.
01:51Yeah, 8-14, the start for Kansas City on April 19th.
01:56Not a very good start for a Royals team, of course,
01:58that had a lot of optimism following a playoff appearance a season ago.
02:02Since then, DRS, Kansas City has won 14 of their last 16,
02:06hoping for a four-game series sweep against the White Sox.
02:09If Chicago is in your division, take advantage.
02:13And some teams around the AL Central are doing exactly that.
02:16DRS, first two weeks of this year, it's like, ah, same old AL Central.
02:20Everybody flirting with around 500, maybe a few games above or a few games below.
02:25The Royals now 22-16.
02:27The Guardians now 22-15.
02:29And the team with the best record in the entirety of the American League,
02:33that would be the Detroit Tigers.
02:34There's a 23-13 mark and a doubleheader today expected at Coors Field between the Tigers and the Rockies.
02:42Colorado, the worst team in Major League Baseball.
02:45Now 6-29 after an opening loss in this series yesterday.
02:50First day of this series on Tuesday, DRS.
02:53We got a postponement due to weather.
02:54That's why we're playing two today to end out this three-game set.
02:58First game, a little bit after 3 p.m. Eastern time.
03:02Casey Mize on the bump for the Tigers.
03:04They're a hefty favorite, minus 180, as you would expect for every team that takes on the Rocks this year.
03:09Yeah, and you take a look at Freeland on the mound.
03:115.7 ERA.
03:12Always terrible, but understand that with a grain of salt.
03:14He does pitch in Colorado, but how about his XFIP number?
03:163.38, much better than that ERA.
03:19Now, also, I just wanted to bring that up because when you're taking a look at the batters
03:22and how they line up in both of these games, right?
03:25Yesterday, I liked a few batters for Detroit.
03:27They scored six runs, eight runs yesterday, last night.
03:29I didn't even cash in any RBI props in that game, which is crazy.
03:31Should have just went with the team total.
03:33Didn't work out for me.
03:34But if you're jumping back on Detroit today, and let's just say going up against Freeland,
03:37who does have pretty good statistics, you're probably locked and loaded on some right-handed
03:40batters.
03:41And I believe it was yesterday, Gleyber Torres, who had the big day here.
03:45Excuse me, Javi Baez, I believe, had the big day, like the nine-hole yesterday for Detroit.
03:49That can happen.
03:50That lineup presents itself extremely well against right-handed pitching.
03:53If you remove Riley Green, who's a left-handed batter with underwhelming statistics against
03:57lefties and also in the last batter in the lineup, who's another lefty in Trey Sweeney,
04:00everybody has a high-weighted on-base percentage, which holds well.
04:04If you look at the opposite side in game number one with Casey Mize, he's not a great pitcher.
04:08But nobody, even like Colorado, every time you break down this card, you should be like,
04:11man, their numbers are sensational because they play a course.
04:14But the game doesn't adjust the course here.
04:17These are just the numbers based on home and away, which they always should have the advantage.
04:20Everybody in the lineup stinks outside of Drew and Beck, who actually did have an RBI yesterday.
04:23Game number two, if we just jump to that one, Kyder Montero, high XFIP number on that port
04:28for the Detroit Tigers, that could get you into problems with Tanner Gordon with no statistics
04:32in Major League Baseball this season.
04:33You're probably looking at, and rightfully so, every time Colorado plays, I don't care
04:36if it's a doubleheader.
04:37It's hard to take them in either one of these two games, Ben.
04:39Let's go.
04:46Let's go.
04:46Let's go.
04:48Let's go.