This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 30/10/2023.
Even before storm Ciarán arrives heavy rain is expected to cause further flooding problems with flooding and travel disruption likely. From Wednesday night storm Ciarán will bring both strong and potentially damaging winds along with heavy rain. There are many weather warnings in place.
Bringing you this forecast for the week ahead is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
Even before storm Ciarán arrives heavy rain is expected to cause further flooding problems with flooding and travel disruption likely. From Wednesday night storm Ciarán will bring both strong and potentially damaging winds along with heavy rain. There are many weather warnings in place.
Bringing you this forecast for the week ahead is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
~
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 The weather will be making news headlines again this week.
00:03 Some very heavy downpours to come even before Storm Kieran arrives.
00:07 Low pressure will dominate the scene throughout this week.
00:11 We're surrounded to start the week.
00:14 None of these are Storm Kieran.
00:16 And this weather system isn't even Storm Kieran either,
00:19 coming in on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
00:20 Now, here is the storm system barrelling in from the Atlantic
00:24 during Tuesday night and Wednesday, intensifying and then arriving
00:28 on our shores Wednesday night and into Thursday,
00:31 and then lingering around into Friday.
00:34 Let's rewind the clock and look at where Storm Kieran is coming from,
00:38 because at the time of recording on Monday, it doesn't look much at all.
00:41 Barely a mark there on the pressure pattern.
00:44 But what's going on high up in the sky is crucial here.
00:48 Big temperature contrast across North America is driving and fueling
00:53 a very active jet stream.
00:55 And it's this jet stream barrelling out of North America that will pick up
01:00 Storm Kieran and intensify it.
01:03 And particularly as we go through Tuesday night and into Wednesday,
01:08 the storm system crosses the jet stream.
01:10 And that's when it really intensifies.
01:12 That's when the ice bars are jumping out of it during the first part of Wednesday.
01:15 It then arrives on our shores as a maturing feature.
01:19 But crucially, now the jet is bent in this trough in this U shape.
01:25 And that means that the storm, Storm Kieran, doesn't move rapidly across the UK.
01:30 It kind of lingers. It is for a storm like this going to be fairly slow moving.
01:34 So that means the rainfall totals are more likely to build up.
01:38 So we are expecting problems from both wind and rain from this storm system.
01:45 Even before the storm arrives, we're going to see some problems with heavy rain.
01:49 We have a Met Office amber warning in place for Monday night and Tuesday morning
01:53 across the east of Northern Ireland.
01:55 Again, the ground is saturated, so the extra rain falling here is likely to cause some disruption.
02:00 The rain should ease through the course of Tuesday morning.
02:03 There'll be showers on Tuesday over Northern England, parts of the Midlands,
02:06 and then a drier, brighter zone before another band of rain comes into the southwest with increasing winds.
02:13 Much of Scotland will be dry and bright on Tuesday.
02:15 Just a few scattered showers across the north.
02:17 The winds are coming down from the north here, so it'll be a potentially frosty start.
02:21 And then temperatures only reaching eight or nine Celsius further south.
02:24 We should get into the mid teens, but of course, feeling cooler once this next area of rain arrives.
02:29 Now, that is from a warm front tied into another weather system.
02:33 And as that crosses, particularly Northern Ireland is going to drop more rain on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
02:38 So, again, we have a Met Office warning in place here, a yellow warning for Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning
02:44 for the potential for further disruption.
02:48 This time, the rain will push into Scotland during the day.
02:50 So a much wetter day through the central belt, southern Scotland.
02:53 And then we're looking at bands of heavy showers moving around across England,
02:57 Wales and staying pretty wet across Northern Ireland as well.
03:01 It will be technically a milder day across Scotland, but with wind and rain, 11 degrees won't feel as pleasant,
03:08 probably as the nine degrees with some sunshine will on Tuesday.
03:11 Further south again, there'll be some brighter spells.
03:13 And when the sun pops out, temperatures should again get into the mid teens in the south.
03:18 But the winds will be strengthening all the while.
03:20 The strongest winds, however, are still yet to come.
03:23 That'll be Wednesday night and into Thursday as Storm Kieran arrives.
03:27 Here it comes intensifying down to the southwest, but then moving in and lingering with a lot of tightly packed isobars.
03:34 The strongest winds on this storm along its southern flank.
03:37 So the south coast of England in particular.
03:39 But as it starts to pull away, there'll be some strong gusts across parts of West Wales and potentially also across parts of East Anglia.
03:48 So we do have Met Office yellow warnings in place.
03:50 Let's deal with those winds. First of all, inland 40, 50 miles an hour, but on coast 50 to 60 and some parts of the south coast, 70, 80.
03:59 Some very exposed places could even see gusts of 90 miles.
04:02 Now that's going to generate some large waves.
04:05 These kind of winds are likely to cause some structural damage, creating flying debris.
04:10 And we are expecting transport disruption from the winds.
04:14 This is again Wednesday night and into Thursday.
04:17 That's the wind. But this storm will also be packing plenty of rain, which will linger through Thursday and into Friday.
04:25 In some locations, a further 20 millimetres of rain, 40 to 60 millimetres on some places, in some places, particularly over hills.
04:33 And again, because the ground is saturated, those kind of rainfall amounts are likely to cause some flooding, create fast flowing, dangerous rivers.
04:42 And again, there will be disruption to the transport network.
04:46 The storm system really moving in like a big washing machine on Thursday, although we don't have any warnings in place at this stage.
04:53 Across Scotland, the rain will be moving into parts of eastern Scotland and the winds will be picking up here as well.
05:00 The far northwest may be the only place exempt from anything too significant from Storm Kieran on Thursday.
05:07 Again, temperatures 10 to 14 degrees, but obviously it's not going to feel all that pleasant for many.
05:11 It'll just rain for most of the day.
05:13 And those strong and gusty winds will continue to move around the storm system as it kind of grinds to a halt,
05:20 only very slowly starting to fill and edge out towards the North Sea as we head into Friday,
05:26 which means the rain will keep coming in some locations, particularly across parts of northeast England.
05:31 The exact location of where the storm sits will dictate where the wettest weather is,
05:37 but the potential for further flooding even into Friday, more showers to come.
05:41 But it does look a little drier in the west, at least at this stage.
05:44 And again, temperatures struggling to get into the teens and feeling cooler with the wind and the rain.
05:50 There goes then Storm Kieran as we head into the weekend.
05:53 It does start to disappear, but another area of low pressure then moving in from the Atlantic.
05:59 At this stage, this one doesn't look as powerful, but nevertheless likely to bring more rain after a very wet week.
06:07 So we'll be keeping our eyes very closely on this system moving in for the weekend as well.
06:12 Please do keep up to date.
06:14 All of the weather warnings are on our app and on our website.
06:17 And make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel to never miss an update.