This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 15/01/2025.
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather for a while yet before getting broken down next week.
Bringing you this week’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather for a while yet before getting broken down next week.
Bringing you this week’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, very good day to you. High pressure has been nearby through recent days and it's
00:05going to cling on for a little while yet, but exactly how long it lasts for and what
00:10happens thereafter, that's where there's some uncertainty through the next 10 days or so.
00:14Starting off looking at our multi-model regimes and the oranges, the reds showing high pressure
00:20nearby being the most likely setup, which is what we have at the moment and it's what
00:24we'll continue to have as we go through, well, much of the weekend into the beginning of
00:28next week and it's around this time next week when we'll end up with a sort of battleground
00:34between high pressure being nearby and exactly where that high pressure is going to be will
00:38be pivotal to the weather that we're going to see and also the potential for something
00:42a little bit more changeable, a bit more mobile coming in from the west. You can see that
00:46with the blue colours developing as we go through the latter part of next week.
00:50But let's start off and look at the bigger picture that we have at the moment and we
00:55actually have a bit of a blocking pattern, high pressure to the south of the UK and with
00:59that the jet has been tumbling over to the north of the UK and with that taking most
01:05of any frontal systems with it and so for many it's been largely dry and that's the
01:09theme that we'll continue with as we go through the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday.
01:14Lots of fine settled weather. With high pressure though, we do often have some murky conditions,
01:19some poor visibility, so there will be some fog first thing on Thursday morning, particularly
01:23around parts of North Midlands into Lincolnshire, Yorkshire perhaps, a bit of fog here and a
01:27chilly start. Otherwise, some thick cloud could be a bit murky because of this towards
01:32the southeast and actually as we go through the day we're going to see that thick cloud
01:36towards the southeast edging just a little bit further northwards at times. Nonetheless,
01:40some parts of northern England, north Wales having some decent sunny weather, even some
01:44bright skies across eastern parts of Scotland and those temperatures did just pop up. It
01:49is going to be a little bit cooler, a little bit chillier than on Wednesday for many of
01:53us but still about average or a little bit above across many northern parts. There is
01:58some wet weather towards the northwest on Thursday that's coming and going but it's
02:01looking largely dry through the bulk of the day. But if we look further ahead then and
02:06as we head towards Friday and there are a couple of things. Yes, there's a frontal system
02:10trying to push its way in from the northwest, the jet not too far away, fairly tightly packed
02:16isobars here showing that there will be some blustery winds towards the northwest as well
02:20but it's also this high pressure that has been dominating our weather across the south
02:25shifting a little bit further eastwards and it's this development towards the east. It's
02:29slow progress shifting towards the east because we have a blocking pattern at the moment but
02:34nonetheless as it goes we will have a bit more of a southerly continental flow pushing
02:39its way across the country and that means we're going to see that cloud that I mentioned
02:43pushing its way further north and some cooler air pushing its way further north as well
02:47as we go through Friday as well. So, Friday's looking a bit chillier too. As we go into
02:52the weekend and we stick with the influence of this high pressure, so many places staying
02:57largely settled but we do start to see some fronts trying again to come over across north
03:02northwestern parts. So, points towards the northwest that's where you have a greater
03:06chance of seeing some wetter and windier weather but nonetheless most places staying largely
03:10fine. Worth bearing in mind actually going back to this system on both Friday and perhaps
03:15into Saturday as well, there is a bit of uncertainty as to the position that this
03:19will be in. Model runs from 24 hours ago had a bit more wet and windy weather across northern
03:26parts through Friday but currently it looks like we're going to avoid the worst of that.
03:30I'll show that in a bit more detail in a second. To understand what's going to happen further
03:35on as we go deeper into the medium range and well we have to look further afield to the
03:41other side of the Atlantic. Currently there's some pretty cold air, a cold plunge of air
03:46and that's important because it's actually going to strengthen the jet stream over the
03:50Atlantic and it's this strengthening of the jet stream that's going to play a pivotal
03:54role in how our weather's going to play out through the next week or so. A couple of things,
03:59so that strengthening jet will bring a bit of mobility. I mentioned we have a blocking
04:03pattern so you'd expect things to be quite stagnant, quite static but because of this
04:08strengthening jet there will be a bit of mobility so we will see some progression and
04:12with that as we go through Saturday into Sunday on this polar jet we are going to see an area
04:17of low pressure developing and this low is going to bring some warmer air with it and
04:23then that's going to drive the jet stream which is going to strengthen. But you can
04:26notice the strengthening side of the jet stream will be over this ridge, so on the eastern
04:33side of this ridge and as a result because of the fact that the jet is strengthening
04:37here it's going to sort of break down and shift away this high pressure that's been
04:42dominating our weather through much of this week and so we are going to see a breakdown
04:47of this blocking pattern and then we'll see something a bit more mobile. The other thing
04:52to bear in mind with this strengthening jet out in the Atlantic is there are two areas
04:57of low pressure developing, one a bit further north in the polar jet and one a bit further
05:03south in that subtropical jet and in between we have this ridge of high pressure that's
05:09building and it's this ridge that could be pretty impactful in terms of the weather that
05:15we get next week so I'll talk about that more in a second but nonetheless these two areas
05:19of low pressure they will play a bit of a role in the weather that we'll get early next
05:24week. Let's look at things in a little bit more detail starting off on Friday and I mentioned
05:28there's some uncertainty as to how much wet and windy weather we get towards the northwest
05:32but I think it's worth bearing in mind across northwestern parts there could be gales, at
05:37one point models were suggesting stronger winds than that 60 to 70, not out of the question
05:41but I think it's unlikely 60 to 70 miles per hour I mean, I think most likely gales in
05:46exposed spots towards the northwest and a bit of rain. For most though it's looking
05:51pretty cloudy, increasingly cloudy with that southerly flow that continental air that cold
05:56continental air coming in and so we're going to see increasing amounts of cloud for many
06:00of us and temperatures on the low side especially across central southern parts of the UK, Scotland
06:06Northern Ireland clinging on to something a bit milder temperatures here a fair bit
06:10above average for the time of year. Looking ahead to Saturday then and we can still see
06:15those fronts the frontal system towards the northwest not really making much of an influence
06:20on the UK it looks like here it will actually be largely dry there will be some brighter
06:24skies around the cloud breaking up a little bit compared to Friday but nonetheless we
06:31still then have that cooler that colder air becoming a bit more widespread as we go through
06:35the weekend so temperatures for many actually look even lower than on Friday and the cooler
06:40colder air will have spread further north so across Scotland those temperatures will
06:44be lower. Worth bearing in mind though perhaps over some higher ground temperatures won't
06:48be particularly low they could actually be a little bit above average over the higher
06:51ground but for many we're under the influence of that colder air that's coming in from the
06:56south. Then as we go through Sunday and we have a weather front that's likely to push
07:00its way in from the west not too confident on the timing of this it could be a bit quicker
07:05than coming through so it could be by the time we get to the middle of the afternoon
07:08it could be pushing across more parts of England and Wales and so we are likely to see some
07:13rain it doesn't look especially heavy but nonetheless a bit of rain ahead of it a mixture
07:18of clouds some brighter breaks most likely towards the north but not too unsettled even
07:23when this frontal system makes its way through. But into the beginning of next week and eventually
07:28the front is likely to push its way from west to east a front could be lying across southern
07:32parts on Monday or we're likely to see more the influence of low pressure towards the
07:37north I highlighted that earlier so that's that more northern low that's likely to come
07:42across somewhere towards the north and you can still see that the jet stream is running
07:46somewhere near towards the north of the UK but many places starting to be again under
07:51the influence of a ridge of high pressure. Worth bearing in mind that the other low that
07:56I highlighted earlier not too far away likely to stay to the south of us but we could see
08:01some influence from that as we go through the beginning part of next week. I wanted
08:06to show you this because this is our confidence index and if you've seen this before you'll
08:12no doubt know that greens are higher than average confidence for this stage in the forecast
08:17and so through the next couple of days the rest of this week confidence is a little bit
08:20higher than average then it really goes quite low and as we head through the beginning part
08:25of next week confidence is a fair bit lower than average. That's not to say we don't know
08:30what's going to happen that just suggests in line with what I just highlighted the exact
08:35positions of those individual low pressures and where any ridge of high pressure builds
08:40that's where the uncertainty is. There are a few things that we can be fairly confident
08:45about for the beginning part of next week. So the wettest weather most likely to be towards
08:50the northwest. It's possible we could see some rain in the far south as well but in
08:55the northwest more likely but not out of the question further south. I think for many it's
09:01actually going to be a largely dry start to the week so that they're the things that we
09:05can be a little bit more confident on. The exact detail the exact position of those lows
09:10that's less certain and that's why that confidence index charts paints a perhaps a pessimistic
09:15picture on how we're thinking things might play out. But what happens there after. Well
09:20this is the 10 day trend and you may have read some headlines some stories talking about
09:25some easterly air coming in and as you may know this time of year and easterly could
09:30bring something very cold something very wintry. We could get some significant snow if that
09:34came off. It's not the most likely set up. I think as we go towards the end of next week.
09:40Yes we have that ridge of high pressure building that I mentioned coming through. That's likely
09:45to push through and it should push through quite quickly and so really the influence
09:49on the UK it's not going to be that much. We have a dry spell for a time and then it
09:52shifts away towards the northeast towards Scandinavia and beyond and because it moves
09:57through relatively quickly we wouldn't really see much of an easterly developing instead
10:01we have low pressure not too far away not necessarily especially deep but low pressure
10:06nearby and so we get a west southwesterly quite a mobile pattern wet and windy weather
10:11at times coming in from the west. This is the most likely scenario for the latter part
10:17of next week. The less preferred but not out of the question possible scenario is for high
10:24pressure to be somewhere a little bit nearer so over Scandinavia so it doesn't push through
10:28quite as quickly and it lingers somewhere towards the northeast of the UK. Now if this
10:32comes off as you can see we could end up with an easterly wind across the UK and east or
10:38southeasterly and like I say at this time of year that's a cold direction so we could
10:43see our temperatures dropping and if this continues for a while if it does happen like
10:48I said it's not the most likely outcome but if it does happen it will take a little while
10:52for us to see any significant impacts from it really. It will be more so end of next
10:58week and the following weekend so the 25th, 26th that's when we'd start to see the influence
11:03of an easterly really kicking in. But if it did then yes we could have some snow showers
11:09coming in from the east and some colder air. So it's definitely one to keep on top of.
11:14Not the most favorable scenario like I said. I think most likely we have low pressure towards
11:18the northwest of us bringing something more akin to what we're used to but it's just not
11:23out of the question at the moment that we could see an easterly developing as we go
11:27through well more the next 11 to 12 days or so. The other thing that I wanted to leave
11:33you with are the meteorograms looking at temperature from ECMWF and here are our capital cities
11:38and they paint a couple of interesting things. Starting off in the north and if we look at
11:42both Belfast and Edinburgh for example and at the moment temperatures well above average
11:46for the time of year and actually towards the northwest so across Belfast they're staying
11:50above average and staying on the mild side really through the whole of the next two weeks.
11:55Edinburgh however likely well it's above average for the time being at the moment but as I
12:00mentioned through this weekend Saturday Sunday we have that colder air coming up from the
12:04south so some hints that that could reach northern parts so a slight blip or slight
12:09dip in temperatures as we go through this weekend before picking up again and then it's
12:13likely to be on the perhaps milder side if anything. And then looking at Cardiff and
12:17London especially this is more pronounced towards the southeast so London really likely
12:22to see that colder air coming in that continental air coming in as we go through this coming
12:26weekend and so temperatures dropping below average for the time of year and then picking
12:31up a little bit but notice quite a large spread as you would expect really as we go towards
12:36the end of next week and that goes in line with the idea that we could either have that
12:39low pressure nearby and something a bit more unsettled or if that high pressure clings
12:43on and sticks to the northeast of us then there is the potential for an easterly wind
12:48to develop. That's everything that I wanted to cover today I hope you enjoyed it I hope
12:52it made some sense I hope it is a little bit useful to you as well we will of course be
12:57keeping you up to date with the forecast and you can find us across social media if you
13:01want to know more about the potential for an easterly. Bye bye.