This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 08/11/2023.
Low pressure and weather fronts dominate our weather for the next week or more, so we can all expect more rain. A gap in the rain should bring many places a fine day on Saturday with a frosty night to follow.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
Low pressure and weather fronts dominate our weather for the next week or more, so we can all expect more rain. A gap in the rain should bring many places a fine day on Saturday with a frosty night to follow.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 It's the time of year where many different weather scenarios are possible.
00:04 Stormy weather, obviously, as we've seen, but also we could see high pressure and fine
00:09 late autumn sunshine and misty mornings.
00:12 Also the time of year where people start scanning for any cold weather and any whiff of snow.
00:17 I'm here to tell you that none of those three scenarios are particularly likely, but I can
00:23 guarantee there will be more rain in the next 10 days.
00:27 Here's the bigger picture, the view of the jet stream.
00:30 It's been particularly active recently and also particularly south shifted, taking low
00:35 pressure systems and wet weather across Spain and France, as well as bringing them towards
00:40 the UK.
00:41 Not a huge deal of change over the next five or so days, although signs of it weakening
00:47 a little bit as we head through the weekend.
00:50 But look at this, another ribbon high in the atmosphere of active, strong winds.
00:56 The jet stream barrels its way back towards the UK for the new working week, but it has
01:03 shifted a little further north.
01:04 And that is perhaps one trend that will continue through the next couple of weeks.
01:10 With the jet stream coming in like this, you know that means low pressure and that's what's
01:14 going to dominate our weather for the next several days.
01:18 Spiraling around us through the rest of this working week, then we'll see another tangle
01:21 of weather fronts, another low for Sunday and another one follows them behind on Monday.
01:27 These weather fronts will bring outbreaks of rain, but as you can see, they're always
01:30 coming in from the west.
01:32 So bringing reasonably mild air with them as they do so from the Atlantic.
01:38 Let's just rewind because there is a little gap, a brief respite, as you will, for Saturday.
01:44 We're not really in a ridge of high pressure.
01:46 We're in what's known as a cull, where you're between two areas of low pressure and two
01:51 areas of high pressure.
01:53 It's a kind of weather no man's land.
01:55 And that's where we are on Saturday.
01:57 But it does mean that most of us will have a fine day on Saturday.
02:01 Around this low, there'll still be a breeze coming in from the north and there's a hint
02:05 of blue on the chart.
02:06 There will be some frost around through this weekend.
02:09 And although there'll be a few scattered showers in the west, certainly initially, many places
02:13 on Saturday will have a dry and a bright day with some of that autumn sunshine.
02:19 As we go through Saturday night, however, be aware that it will turn pretty cold, a
02:24 more widespread frost for Sunday morning, with still a few scattered showers across
02:29 the far north.
02:30 Perhaps not as cold in the southwest because the cloud could be moving in here as we start
02:35 to see the next weather system coming in.
02:37 But as I said, for many, Saturday does look like a window of fine weather, but it will
02:42 bring with it that likelihood of morning frost and also some fog with light winds.
02:48 That's almost inevitable at this time of year.
02:51 So frost and fog through the course of the weekend.
02:54 And then as we head out to the west, this next weather system comes in during Sunday.
02:59 That will bring a spell of rain.
03:00 Some uncertainty about the exact timing of this as it moves in, but most places will
03:04 see some rain during the course of Sunday from this area of low pressure.
03:08 And then as we saw earlier, that's followed by another one bringing another spell of rain
03:12 likely across the country for Monday.
03:15 They will be bringing bands of rain, but they will also be bringing milder air.
03:19 So it turns a little colder in that cold through Saturday.
03:23 But as these weather systems come in from the Atlantic, as I mentioned, they're going
03:26 to be drifting and bringing with them relatively mild air from the west or the southwest.
03:32 So we'll start to see the temperatures rising as we go into it next week.
03:36 We'll look at that in a bit more detail in just a second.
03:39 But first of all, let's look at the rainfall, because it's all coming in from the Atlantic.
03:43 So it'll be western areas that bear the brunt of the rain.
03:46 And these two charts show the accumulation of rainfall over four days from Friday through
03:53 the weekend and Monday as well from two different models, from the Met Office model and from
03:57 the European model.
03:58 And then pretty good agreement that it's going to be western areas, these darker colours,
04:02 the darker oranges, particularly the hills that see the most rainfall with parts of the
04:07 east with the rainfall shadow not seeing as much.
04:10 So yes, we are expecting some wet weather over the next four or five days, but nothing
04:14 exceptional in these rainfall totals with those western hills really bearing the brunt.
04:20 What about those temperatures?
04:21 Well, as I mentioned, we will be seeing an uptick into the new week next week.
04:26 I picked Birmingham here to show the the meteorogram or the temperature trend.
04:30 I could have picked almost anywhere showing these red box and whiskers plots are below
04:35 the average line, which is this line here for the rest of this week.
04:39 But then they do jump up a little bit and it's turning a bit milder into next week and
04:43 the nights in particular.
04:45 That dip, as we saw, increased chance of frost through the weekend as those nights get colder
04:50 and colder than average before they also take an uptick and mostly above average throughout
04:56 next week.
04:57 So on the chilly side through this week and into this weekend and then turning milder
05:01 again for next week.
05:04 What about the rest of next week?
05:05 Well, it's likely to be dominated by low pressure.
05:08 This is the pressure trends from the multi model.
05:12 So when we run all the models many, many times, blue is low pressure.
05:16 The date's going forward along the top.
05:18 Previous computer model runs down the side.
05:20 So a strong signal here, a lot of consistency that, well, it's going to be low pressure
05:26 dominating as we've seen through the weekend, but also for most of next week.
05:30 The blues get a little paler as we go through the latter part of next week.
05:34 But still, it looks most likely that low pressure will be dominating.
05:39 Another way to look at that, and this is just from the European model, is to look at the
05:42 pressure anomaly or the pressure when compared to average.
05:47 And the bluey green colours here are when pressure is going to be lower than average.
05:52 And this is averaged over the whole of next week.
05:54 So from Monday to Monday through next week.
05:57 And you can see that across the whole of the UK, we're in the bluer zone.
06:01 So pressure is going to be lower than average and particularly lower than average up to
06:05 the northwest of the UK.
06:07 So again, just telling us that signal that low pressure is going to be in control and
06:12 that more likely than not, it'll be westerly winds, which means western areas are more
06:17 likely to see the wetter weather.
06:19 And that's what this is showing us.
06:21 This is the rainfall over that week from Monday to Monday.
06:25 And again, it's the anomaly compared to average.
06:27 So western areas see more rain than average anyway, but this is comparing it to those
06:32 averages.
06:33 So the darker greens in the west just suggesting that the west will be wetter than average,
06:39 even though the west is also the wettest part of the UK, if that makes sense.
06:43 So, yes, suggesting again that western areas will bear the brunt of the rainfall as we
06:47 go through next week.
06:49 And that's what we'd expect with a fairly active jet stream coming in from the Atlantic.
06:54 So it looks like the weather is going to be dominated by west or southwesterly winds for
06:57 most of next week, bringing further spells of rain.
07:01 How strong the winds get?
07:02 Well, that will be determined by the exact shape of the jet stream and how it wiggles.
07:06 So that's something we're keeping an eye on.
07:08 But generally, west or southwesterly winds bringing in spells of rain.
07:12 But it'll be western areas that bear the brunt of the rain as well.
07:16 And also temperatures are likely through next week to be a little bit above average.
07:22 As always, for the day to day details, please do keep up to date with everything the Met
07:27 Office does.
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07:33 Bye.