This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 27/12/2023.
After Storm Gerrit, the weather stays unsettled. Often mild in the south and cold in the north, the UK sits in the boundary between mild and cold air with low pressure in charge. Will this theme continue into 2024 or are there any signs of a change? Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
After Storm Gerrit, the weather stays unsettled. Often mild in the south and cold in the north, the UK sits in the boundary between mild and cold air with low pressure in charge. Will this theme continue into 2024 or are there any signs of a change? Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
You may also enjoy:
– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hi there, welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend for the rest of 2023 and the first week
00:06 or so of 2024. First of all, let's set the scene. This is how it's looking as we begin
00:12 Thursday and what you'll notice is a marked temperature contrast across parts of Europe,
00:17 relatively mild air to the south, relatively cold air to the north, nothing unusual about
00:22 that. But the U.K. is on the boundary between that mild and cold air and it will continue
00:28 to be that way for the next 10 days or so. That's the prevailing theme through this
00:33 forecast. Of course, where that boundary exists, we've also got the jet stream. The jet stream
00:39 pushing Storm Gerrit away over the next few days. It's still nearby on Thursday but it's
00:44 weakening. And so still a blustery day but not as windy as Wednesday. That breeze coming
00:51 from the west or southwest across much of the U.K. but still a northerly influence into
00:55 Scotland. That's where the cold air is. That's where there will continue to be some hill
00:58 snow, rain at lower levels and really it's a showery picture for many of us on Thursday
01:04 afternoon. Some longer spells of rain where we've got some old occluded fronts moving
01:07 through northern Scotland and later in the day for parts of south and south-east England,
01:13 some heavy rain moving through here. Gusty winds, 50 mph wind gusts in places but as
01:18 I mentioned, not as windy as Wednesday. In between the rain and showers, some brighter
01:22 spells mild in the south, colder for Scotland. Then into Thursday night, the rain and showers
01:29 in the south tend to ease. They become restricted to western coast. We'll continue to see outbreaks
01:34 of rain and showers for northern England, northern Ireland and for much of Scotland,
01:39 again with some hill snow and a touch of frost where there is some shelter from the wind
01:43 in Scotland but enough of a breeze elsewhere so that we start off Friday frost free, albeit
01:50 still with some sunny spells for the Midlands, East Anglia, the south as well as north-east
01:55 England but we've got this occluded front moving through northern Ireland and northern
01:59 England through the day on Friday. That will bring some longer spells of rain, some large
02:03 rainfall accumulations building up across Scotland as well as northern England over
02:07 the hills primarily and as that system moves south, there will be some showers for Wales,
02:13 for the south and south-west of England as well as continued showers for northern Scotland.
02:18 Again, some hill snow associated with this with rain at lower levels. Feeling cold across
02:24 Scotland and actually for northern Ireland and northern England, temperatures of 6-8
02:28 Celsius, a bit colder than recent days. Still in the double figures in the south on Friday
02:33 but not quite as mild as it has been, not quite as windy either and a greater chance
02:38 of some sunshine coming through. So a fairer day compared with recent days but watch out
02:43 for those showers. Now, Storm Gerrit is moving away by this stage but another low is forming
02:49 out in the Atlantic, again picked up by a powerful jet stream and deepening rapidly
02:55 as it approaches Ireland and the UK during Friday night and into Saturday. You can see
03:02 increasing isobars into the centre of that low so a deepening feature. It finishes its
03:07 deepening phase before it reaches the UK and Ireland but nevertheless, it is going to be
03:13 a powerful system and it's likely to bring the strongest winds to Ireland. So these are
03:18 the wind gusts expected as we start off Saturday and as you can see, exceeding 70mph for Ireland
03:24 but exceeding 60mph across parts of western Scotland, Irish sea coast for example. So
03:30 blustery start to the weekend. Strong winds, gales in places especially in the west early
03:36 on and then increasingly across the south coast and then eventually northern Scotland
03:40 by the end of Saturday. So that will need watching and it will also bring some heavy
03:45 rain. Similar areas affected by the heavy rain on Saturday compared with Storm Gerrit.
03:51 Here it is running through again on Saturday 1am this starts off and what you can see is
03:56 that this system brings some milder air in but it bumps into colder air in place across
04:02 the UK. So the recipe there once again for some substantial snow over northern hills
04:08 predominantly. It will be over hills and it's going to be rain at lower levels but nevertheless
04:15 for the Pennines initially, perhaps first thing for the Welsh mountains as well before
04:19 the milder air arrives and then during the morning on Saturday for the Pennines before
04:24 again the milder air replaces the colder air and it turns to rain but across Scotland certainly
04:29 over the southern uplands and then into the Highlands and Grampians, some very significant
04:33 snow building up through Saturday 20cm plus over the tops of the mountains. So once again
04:40 some treacherous conditions with the wind, rain and hill snow to contend with on Saturday,
04:46 a tricky day for travelling in many places certainly. And it's going to be again marked
04:52 temperature contrasts across the UK. So double figures in the south albeit with that strong
04:57 wind and the rain it's not going to feel very mild and then further north we're in the mid
05:02 single figures, lower than that over upland parts where it's snowing through the day.
05:07 But into the rest of the weekend really that low pressure does gradually fill. It remains
05:13 close to the UK so that on New Year's Eve, well this is how it's looking, that low pressure
05:19 centred somewhere over northern parts of the UK and it's going to continue to bring unsettled
05:27 conditions. Now the more persistent spells of rain will be mostly affecting the northern
05:31 isles at this stage, that's where these weather fronts will be lingering. Elsewhere it's generally
05:36 showery stuff, still a blustery breeze but really if you've got plans on New Year's Eve
05:42 whether it's during the daytime or into the evening expect showers. The showers will predominantly
05:48 affect northern and western parts of the UK but there will be some clearer spells in between
05:53 and the showers will be carried through on a blustery wind as well but the wind won't
05:57 be quite as strong as Saturday. However, by this stage there are differences emerging
06:04 in the computer models. Now the differences relate to the position of this area of low
06:08 pressure, whether it's centred over northern parts of the UK as per this example or whether
06:14 it's pushed further east more quickly and if it does on New Year's Eve push further
06:19 east into the North Sea more quickly we get colder air arriving on the western flank of
06:24 that low and there's a greater chance that those showers will be falling as snow, mostly
06:29 over northern hills but the potential if we get enough colder air that we'll see some
06:33 of those snow showers coming down to lower levels. That's the less preferred solution,
06:37 this is the more likely scenario on New Year's Eve, the low pressure centred over northern
06:41 parts of the UK bringing clear spells and showers. But those differences amplify as
06:48 we start off 2024 and this is as the clock strikes midnight on New Year's Eve night going
06:55 into New Year's Day and we don't just run the computer model once, we run it many times.
07:00 This is the output from the Met Office Ensemble computer model runs and it shows 17 different
07:07 ideas for where that low pressure will be but broadly there are two camps, one camp
07:12 showing the low pressure centred over northern parts of the UK, so showery yes but not particularly
07:18 cold, another camp showing the low pressure in the North Sea with more of a northerly
07:22 feed and roughly those two camps are equal but one is slightly more likely than the other
07:31 and that is that as we begin 2024, so on Monday and Tuesday we'll see low pressure somewhere
07:37 over northern parts of the UK, a dip in the jet stream, 60% probability that it will be
07:42 showery. It dispersed by brighter spells yes but showery and most of those showers will
07:47 be falling as rain but of course there will be some hill snow over Scotland and perhaps
07:51 the Pennines as well. That's slightly more likely than the other scenario for Monday
07:57 and Tuesday which has the low pressure in the North Sea and more of a northerly airflow
08:02 and in this scenario we'd certainly see some hill snow falling with these showers especially
08:07 across northern and northeastern parts of the UK. We could even see some snow down to
08:11 lower levels in the northeast if we get enough cold air coming around the back of that low
08:16 pressure and an even smaller chance and this is showing up in a minority of computer model
08:22 output that another area of low pressure will move up from the southwest with that cold
08:27 air in place bringing outbreaks of rain but turning to snow across the south and southwest
08:34 during the first couple of days of 2024. But that really is a low probability, less than
08:41 40% say 10-20% chance. So the most likely is that it will be business as usual with
08:46 low pressure close to the north, rain showers for many dispersed by bright spells, slightly
08:52 lower chance that it will be colder with some hill snow or snow to lower levels in the north
08:56 and northeast and an even lower probability that there will be something wintry turning
08:59 up towards the south and southwest. These differences in the computer models are unlikely
09:04 to be resolved for a couple of days or so because they're to do with how amplified the
09:08 jet stream becomes later this week. Of course, we'll keep it dated right here at the Met
09:14 office. Beyond that, what happens? Well, similar weather patterns prevail for the rest of next
09:20 week. That is we'll continue to see the U.K. sitting on that mild cold boundary with the
09:26 jet stream somewhere in between and the jet stream continuing to bring us areas of low
09:31 pressure. Sometimes those low pressure systems will bring us wet and windy weather and milder
09:35 conditions to the south, for example, in this weather pattern here. And other times those
09:40 low pressure systems will move through and we'll get colder northerly winds with some
09:44 wintry showers mostly across northern parts of the U.K., especially over hills. So there'll
09:51 be this continued oscillation with the U.K. sitting on the mild cold boundary and low
09:55 pressure moving through. Will low pressure continue to dominate for the first few weeks
10:01 of 2024? That's the big question because, of course, it has been so dominant during
10:06 the last few weeks and months. Well, this would suggest not. Now, this shows the most
10:11 likely weather patterns, colour coded up for each day going out to the next couple of weeks
10:16 or so. Roughly speaking, the blues indicate weather patterns where low pressure is close
10:22 to the U.K. whereas the reds and oranges indicate higher pressure, more influential on the U.K.'s
10:28 weather. And this would suggest from the output from the Met Office model, the European model
10:33 and the American model, that higher pressure becomes more likely later next week and into
10:39 the second week of January. That would lead to a greater chance of drier and possibly
10:46 colder weather developing. But, of course, that's a long way off. And how cold it would
10:51 be, whether it would just be frost or snow and ice that we're talking about, would entirely
10:57 depend on the position of any high pressure that was influencing the U.K.'s weather at
11:01 the time. And we'll have more detail on that in the next few days and weeks. Make sure
11:06 you subscribe to YouTube, make it a New Year's resolution so that you never miss one of these
11:12 updates. Bye-bye.
11:13 [BLANK_AUDIO]