Perjalanan Ekonomi RI 2023, dan Proyeksi 2024
Tahun 2024 merupakan tahun yang memberikan harapan sekaligus tantangan bagaimana perekonomian Indonesia mampu melesat lebih cepat dari segi pertumbuhan dan pembangunan serta peningkatan kesejahteraan rakyat. Tahun 2024 juga menjadi ajang pelaksanaan pemilu bagi pergantian posisi kepemimpinan pusat hingga level daerah.
Untuk memprediksi perekonomian Indonesia 2024 diperlukan evaluasi terhadap pencapaian ekonomi tahun sebelumnya, yakni 2023. Capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal tiga 2023 tumbuh 4,94% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ini mengalami penurunan dari periode sebelumnya. Penyebabnya adalah konsumsi rumah tangga yang melemah dan rendahnya capaian ekspor-impor Indonesia dampak dari geopolitik global.
Berbagai kebutuhan dasar masyarakat masih belum terpenuhi secara layak seperti lapangan kerja dan upah tenaga kerja rendah, masih besarnya angka kemiskinan (9,36%), tingkat pengangguran terbuka (5,45%), dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (72,91) masih jauh untuk mencapai perekonomian Indonesia maju.
Untuk memprediksi perekonomian Indonesia 2024 diperlukan evaluasi terhadap pencapaian ekonomi tahun sebelumnya, yakni 2023. Capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal tiga 2023 tumbuh 4,94% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ini mengalami penurunan dari periode sebelumnya. Penyebabnya adalah konsumsi rumah tangga yang melemah dan rendahnya capaian ekspor-impor Indonesia dampak dari geopolitik global.
Berbagai kebutuhan dasar masyarakat masih belum terpenuhi secara layak seperti lapangan kerja dan upah tenaga kerja rendah, masih besarnya angka kemiskinan (9,36%), tingkat pengangguran terbuka (5,45%), dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (72,91) masih jauh untuk mencapai perekonomian Indonesia maju.
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TVTranscript
00:00 Hello viewers, straight from IDX Channel Jakarta, I am Prasit Webo,
00:04 back again in Market Review, a program that deals with the issues of Indonesia's economic movement.
00:08 You can also watch our live streaming at IDXchannel.com.
00:12 And this time we will review the 2023 economic journey of Indonesia.
00:17 And what is the projection for 2024?
00:21 Let's start the complete market review.
00:25 [Music]
00:32 Yes, viewers, 2024 is a year that will provide hope as well as challenges
00:38 on how Indonesia's economy can develop faster
00:41 in terms of growth and development, as well as increasing people's welfare.
00:46 Moreover, to predict Indonesia's economy in 2024,
00:50 it is necessary to evaluate the economic achievement of the previous year.
00:55 [Music]
00:59 2024 is a year that will provide hope as well as challenges
01:03 on how Indonesia's economy can develop faster
01:06 in terms of growth and development, as well as increasing people's welfare.
01:12 2024 is also a milestone for the implementation of the election
01:15 for the replacement of the position of central leadership to the regional level.
01:20 To predict Indonesia's economy in 2024,
01:23 it is necessary to evaluate the economic achievement of the previous year.
01:27 There was an economic growth in the third quarter of 2023,
01:31 which grew 4.94% compared to the previous year.
01:35 This growth has declined,
01:37 the reason being the weakening household consumption
01:40 and the low achievement of Indonesia's import exports,
01:42 which is the impact of global geopolitics.
01:45 [Music]
01:51 Indonesia's economy in 2023 can be said to be unsatisfactory.
01:56 Various basic needs of the people are still not met properly,
02:00 such as low-wage jobs and labor,
02:03 still a high poverty rate of 9.36%,
02:06 unemployment rate is open at 5.45%,
02:09 and the human development index 72.91%
02:13 is still far from achieving Indonesia's advanced economy.
02:16 Other economic problems to be considered are
02:22 price stability or inflation,
02:24 and the decline in income surplus or population gini ratio.
02:28 The stability of the price of basic needs is very important to be considered
02:32 to maintain the purchasing power of the people,
02:34 especially for the middle and lower classes.
02:37 [Music]
02:40 Indonesia's economy in 2024 is projected to still be delayed.
02:45 This makes it possible for economic growth to be corrected
02:48 by the government, which is currently projected to grow 5.2%.
02:54 Various sources of IDX Channel.
02:56 Yes, we have presented a number of data related to Indonesia's economic growth
03:04 throughout 2023,
03:06 precisely up to Q3 2023 annually.
03:10 Yes, as you can see, the movement in Q4 2022
03:14 was recorded as still 5.01%.
03:16 In Q1 this year, it rose to 5.05% annually,
03:21 and in Q2 2023, it rose again to 5.17%.
03:27 Meanwhile, in Q3 this year,
03:30 Indonesia's economic growth experienced a 4.94% drop.
03:35 And next, we will discuss the fundamental issues
03:39 related to the movement of inflation in Indonesia.
03:41 Data from June to November 2023,
03:45 this is the movement in terms of months and years.
03:48 Yes, it is recorded for the year,
03:51 the movement of inflation in November was 2.86%,
03:55 while in October it was recorded as 2.56%.
03:58 There was a slight increase in the rate of inflation annually.
04:01 Meanwhile, for the month, we can see it was the same,
04:04 0.17% in October,
04:06 and in November it was 0.38% for inflation.
04:11 And next, we can see from the movement of currency exchange value,
04:15 these are two points that are actually the basis,
04:18 mainly from the Bank of Indonesia,
04:20 our central bank, in determining the BIRID reference rate,
04:24 which was still held yesterday.
04:26 Our currency exchange value,
04:28 the average movement was still around 15,000.
04:31 On December 28th, it was 15,416,
04:35 while the day before, it was 5,414.
04:38 Meanwhile, on December 22nd,
04:40 if we go back, it was 15,489,
04:44 and the day before, it was 15,533
04:48 for the movement of currency exchange value
04:50 against the US dollar.
04:52 [The President of the Indonesian Economic Council, Mr. Arman Simanjorang]
04:58 Okay, Mr. Mir, let's discuss our interesting topic today,
05:01 related to Indonesia's economic journey in 2023,
05:06 and its projection in 2024.
05:08 He has joined me in the IDX channel studio and also Lienzoom.
05:12 There is Mr. Arman Simanjorang,
05:14 the Deputy Chairperson of the Indonesian Cadine.
05:17 Hello, good morning, Mr. Arman.
05:19 Good morning, Mr. Pres.
05:20 Good health and good spirit.
05:22 Good spirit at the end of the year,
05:24 when we will review Indonesia's economic growth,
05:27 and its projection in the future.
05:29 And we will also welcome another guest,
05:31 a guest who has joined me in the studio,
05:33 Mr. Andri Satrio Nugroho.
05:35 He is an Indepth economist.
05:37 Hello, good morning, Mr. Andri.
05:38 Good morning.
05:39 How are you?
05:40 Good, sir.
05:41 Thank you for your time.
05:42 Okay, let's get right to it.
05:43 We will review, we will ask the first question.
05:45 Let's ask this to Mr. Andri first.
05:47 Okay.
05:48 This week is the last week,
05:50 we also know in 2023,
05:52 we will review what it is like
05:54 throughout the year 2023,
05:56 Indonesia's economic journey,
05:58 what is it like until today?
06:02 Yes, if we look at it,
06:04 first we look at the consumption first.
06:08 We actually hope that this year,
06:11 consumption increases can be higher.
06:15 But when we look at the latest data,
06:18 the third quarter, it has been reported that consumption has decreased.
06:22 So one of our economic engines,
06:27 one of them is consumption,
06:29 this has not yet reached its optimum point this year.
06:33 Then we talk about investment,
06:35 although if we look at the realization of investment,
06:38 there has been an increase.
06:40 But the investment in GDP itself,
06:45 the growth is not quite optimal.
06:49 So, indeed, this movement from quarter to quarter,
06:54 we see that we should be able to reach above 5%,
06:59 but in fact in the third quarter,
07:02 it's not that good, at 4.9%.
07:05 But maybe some positive energy in the third quarter,
07:10 we see the industry, the manufacturing industry has reached 5%,
07:14 but unfortunately, sectors that we also hope are high,
07:20 agriculture for example,
07:22 the growth is still quite low.
07:24 A fairly large sector is in the service sector.
07:27 The service sector is like transportation,
07:30 double digit, accommodation, food and drink is also high.
07:35 Whereas in fact, if we look at the economic structure,
07:38 these sectors do not move the economy as a whole.
07:44 So we see that the key is how the manufacturing industry can grow high.
07:53 We even hope it can be higher than the economic growth
07:57 that we actually target.
08:00 And of course we have to see,
08:03 our goal is in 2045 to get out of the middle income trap.
08:08 To grow into a developed country,
08:12 out of the middle income trap,
08:14 it takes 6-7% economic growth.
08:17 While if we look at the analysis from the index itself,
08:22 more or less this year 4.9%.
08:24 Maybe the most solid is 5% for the end of the year.
08:28 So it's still far from our target to reach 6-7%.
08:33 Okay, 6-7% so that we are free from the middle class income trap.
08:42 We go to Mr. Sarman,
08:43 how about from the perspective of Indonesia,
08:47 related to activities and economic growth in Indonesia throughout this year,
08:51 is it in line with the expectations from the business world?
08:56 Hello.
09:01 Hello.
09:02 Yes, please.
09:03 If we look at our economic growth in 2023,
09:10 up to now,
09:12 we know that in the third quarter,
09:14 we are not surprised to reach 5%,
09:18 only around 4.9%.
09:21 But in general,
09:23 if we look at it,
09:24 up to now, we agree that some sectors have already had good growth.
09:32 Even though it's fluctuating,
09:35 for example, like construction,
09:38 for example, mining,
09:40 especially tourism and its decline,
09:43 this is very, very significant.
09:45 Then information and communication,
09:48 then also investment,
09:50 for example,
09:51 even though it's fluctuating,
09:54 but it's still good,
09:55 especially government spending.
09:57 So if we look at it,
09:59 it's easy to see that our economic growth in 2023 can reach 5%,
10:06 with the note that our economic growth in the fourth quarter,
10:09 our expectations can also be above 5% a little,
10:13 so that later we can reach an average of 5% in 2023.
10:17 Moreover, we see that our economic conditions at the end of this year are quite good,
10:22 where our manufacturing is also quite productive,
10:27 can meet various needs of our community,
10:30 especially the food and drink sector, for example,
10:33 is also quite good at the moment.
10:35 Then we also see the Nataru pentum,
10:40 where the government has also predicted that around Rp107 million
10:45 will be spent on the New Year's Eve and New Year's Eve,
10:48 we hope this will also be able to contribute to economic growth in the fourth quarter.
10:55 So in general, we have seen that this achievement is already quite good,
11:02 hopefully this can be maintained until the fourth quarter,
11:05 it can be above 5% a little,
11:08 so we hope that our economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 will reach 5%.
11:14 Okay, but according to you, is this already in line with your expectations?
11:17 During 2023, policies, acceleration, economic growth,
11:23 the activity of all industries,
11:25 so this is a reflection that it will be a strong capital to look at next year.
11:30 Yes, if we look at it like this,
11:33 that our economic growth is not far from how the global economy is in this matter.
11:41 For example, we look at how our private sector industry
11:45 which until now has also very, very low productivity.
11:50 That's because the demand for buyers from the US is very low
11:56 because our stock markets in various countries are also very low.
12:01 That is one factor, and we also see that various companies
12:06 whose export orientation is also very, very low in this matter.
12:10 So if we look at how we can strengthen the economic foundation in the country in this matter.
12:18 Various government policies, for example,
12:22 how to make the regional government's customs,
12:26 the US Customs and Trade, the domestic food supply,
12:29 become one of the things we hope will be realized.
12:32 So that the money is circulating in Indonesia,
12:34 then our manufacturing also grows, the SMEs also grow.
12:37 Of course, it also affects our workers,
12:40 not many will do PHK in this matter.
12:44 Okay, later we will discuss in the next section,
12:46 what sectors are still supporting throughout 2023?
12:51 Is this also again talking about various incentives that have been given
12:55 to be proof that it can support the progress of Indonesian economy?
12:59 We will come back later in the next section, stay with us.
13:03 We continue to discuss again with Mr. Sarman Semanjorang,
13:06 Deputy Chairman of the Indonesian Commission and Mr. Andri Satrio Nugroho,
13:10 Indef Economics.
13:11 This is interesting if we look at the sectors that support Indonesia's economy
13:16 throughout 2023.
13:18 Mr. Andri, what do you think?
13:21 There are many priority sectors that get fiscal incentives,
13:26 or other incentives that are given by the government.
13:29 Automotive, property, hillarization, which continues to be done until now.
13:34 What do you think?
13:35 Is it effective in the end to be our economic driver this year?
13:42 Okay, maybe we analyze one by one.
13:45 In Indonesia, we know that the manufacturing industry has approximately 5 subsectors.
13:52 The first is the food and beverage industry, electronics, automotive, pharmacy,
13:57 and the last is textile.
13:59 If we look at the food and beverage industry,
14:01 the biggest contributor is the palm oil processing industry.
14:07 The problem today, we know our own palm oil prices,
14:12 what our CPO prices are like,
14:15 and we still haven't reached the optimum point for growth,
14:19 unlike the years before 2019,
14:22 which can grow up to double digits.
14:26 If we talk about the textile industry,
14:30 which in my opinion is a labor-intensive industry,
14:34 and also an industry that is heavily exported.
14:37 It means that it produces and is exported.
14:42 But if we look at the demand for export of textile products,
14:47 it's not that good.
14:49 And this happens globally.
14:51 China and several countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam,
14:56 they produce and it's also difficult for penetration into developed countries.
15:01 The ending is in our country.
15:04 So they have to compete with us.
15:07 And of course, the competition for these textile products finally decreases.
15:13 This also has implications for the economy.
15:19 Because as mentioned earlier,
15:21 both fiscal incentives and non-fiscal incentives
15:24 are not many that are directed to sectors that are driving the economy.
15:31 So if we look at it, like the textile industry,
15:35 there are not many incentives given by the government.
15:39 There are some import restrictions,
15:47 but in the end, it still passes.
15:50 We are still waiting for incentives
15:54 given to sectors that I mentioned earlier,
15:58 these five priorities.
16:00 While if we talk about hillarization,
16:03 it has already had an impact in terms of export.
16:09 Ferro-Nickel has already seen an increase in export,
16:14 but the overall economic growth is still not big enough.
16:18 There is a big growth in the metal industry,
16:24 but the multiplier to other sectors is still low.
16:29 So we see that the impact is on Maluku-Utara PDRB,
16:36 which is a double digit in the end.
16:39 But if we look at it overall,
16:41 even the tax revenue of the manufacturing industry continues to decline.
16:46 What we hope is that with the hillarization,
16:50 especially the hillarization of nickel,
16:52 which is currently in the process of being increased,
16:54 it can increase our tax revenue,
16:57 increase other sectors,
17:00 but until now,
17:02 the contribution to the economy has not been seen nationally.
17:09 Okay, let's get to the point.
17:11 Mr. Sarman, what do you think about the incentives
17:15 given by the government?
17:17 Is this a correct policy
17:19 so that it can be a booster for the overall economy
17:22 and the industries in Indonesia?
17:24 Or do you see that this is not even yet?
17:28 And it seems that there is something that is underestimated,
17:30 such as the industries that get the tax incentive or non-tax.
17:35 So it's like this,
17:37 so when our economy has a challenge like this,
17:43 we do hope that the government
17:46 will be responsive,
17:49 look at various global economic conditions,
17:53 then also the challenges of the national economy,
17:56 so that it can immediately provide a policy
17:59 that can boost productivity from the business world in this matter.
18:05 For example, yesterday,
18:07 yesterday, the government announced that
18:12 for the period from January to March 2024,
18:16 there will be no increase in non-subsidized electricity rates.
18:19 For example, that is one thing we hope to be,
18:25 a draw for our business actors,
18:28 and it will also be able to,
18:31 how to make the cost of electricity
18:34 can be calculated that for the future,
18:38 there will be no increase in non-subsidized electricity rates.
18:48 That is one thing that is very important for us,
18:50 and we as businessmen are very appreciative of that.
18:54 Then the next thing is,
18:56 for example,
18:58 how should the NGOs be saved?
19:03 Because the NGOs also contribute
19:08 to the strengthening of our national economy.
19:11 We see that the government of Mr. Jokowi
19:15 is already very attentive to our NGOs.
19:19 But in the future,
19:20 we also hope that this must be managed by anyone,
19:24 because we have a position of 60 million,
19:26 and this is one of the pillars of our economic strength.
19:29 How to really boost the class,
19:32 for example, from small to medium class,
19:35 the class can be big in this case.
19:37 Because we see,
19:39 our NGOs still have a lot of young people,
19:43 which means that they are still young.
19:45 Many of them do not have good management,
19:48 good design,
19:51 good promotion.
19:53 There are still many who need to be built.
19:56 But we are sure, for example,
19:58 with various regulations,
20:00 various support from the government to our NGOs,
20:04 until now, it has grown well,
20:06 and this must be continued in the future,
20:08 so that our NGOs
20:10 become the strength of our economy.
20:13 Okay, let's talk about the MSMEs,
20:15 to Mas Andri again.
20:16 Do you think there needs to be a special policy?
20:19 I remember from year to year,
20:21 the theme is MSMEs,
20:22 which will be given incentives.
20:24 But MSMEs themselves,
20:26 several times in the program,
20:29 still complain that there are still many MSMEs
20:32 that need to be challenged.
20:33 Do you think there needs to be a special strategy?
20:37 Because this is one of the sectors
20:39 that has supported our economy in the past few years.
20:42 Supporting the economy and also,
20:44 the workforce is quite large.
20:46 I think, first,
20:49 if we look at the government itself,
20:52 it has issued the Employment Law,
20:55 and the decline, we know,
20:57 the US is based on risk,
20:59 so that MSMEs are easier to register
21:03 as formal entities.
21:06 And that's what we hope,
21:07 that MSMEs are not only moving in the informal sector,
21:11 but also moving in the formal sector,
21:13 so that the government in this matter,
21:15 I think, can provide
21:18 fiscal incentives that are felt appropriate for MSMEs,
21:22 because it is already stated.
21:23 What I think needs to be done immediately
21:26 is that the support processes are not yet aligned.
21:31 It means that industry actors, business actors,
21:35 should also be the off-takers of the products
21:38 produced by MSMEs.
21:40 So that there is an integration
21:43 between MSMEs and their big business.
21:46 So, MSMEs are not left alone.
21:49 If left alone, they are difficult to penetrate the market.
21:52 They are difficult to do export, for example.
21:55 They are difficult to capitalize.
21:57 So, in the end, they even compete with big business.
22:01 This is actually unhealthy.
22:03 In some countries, I think,
22:05 this integration is built,
22:07 is bridged by the government.
22:09 This is what I think is still a domestic job.
22:12 This year, it's still a domestic job,
22:14 to align between small and large businesses.
22:19 Indeed, there are still many domestic jobs
22:21 that need to be tackled for several sectors.
22:23 If there were priorities,
22:25 but some have already got incentives,
22:27 but there are still some that have already got priorities,
22:29 there are still bottlenecks there.
22:31 We will discuss again later
22:33 what the investment eclipse is like,
22:35 which has also been built by the government,
22:37 and how the impact is related to global pressure.
22:40 We will be right back.
22:41 We can continue the interesting discussion
22:43 with Mr. Selman Semanjorang
22:45 and Mr. Andries Satrionugroho.
22:48 This talk this time is related to the impact of the global economy.
22:52 As we know, the pressure in the last few months
22:55 has also become one of the things
22:57 that is often discussed by the international community,
23:00 including Indonesia.
23:02 We will go to Mr. Andries.
23:03 A review from Indep.
23:05 How far has the fluctuation escalated?
23:09 What is the level?
23:10 The global economic pressure,
23:12 the threat of recession,
23:13 is still there for the Indonesian economy.
23:16 From geopolitics, of course,
23:18 it's a bit difficult for us to predict.
23:20 Because, again, when the COVID-19 recovery happened yesterday,
23:23 we didn't know that Russia and Ukraine would have a conflict.
23:27 And yesterday we didn't know
23:29 that Israel and Hamas escalation has increased.
23:32 And of course, in 2024,
23:34 no one knows what it will be like.
23:37 And of course, the key is to keep
23:42 our economy in a resilient condition.
23:46 Stay safe.
23:48 If we look at the impact,
23:51 it's quite big.
23:53 Especially if we look at the conditions yesterday,
23:57 Russia and Ukraine,
23:59 which, if we look at it,
24:01 quite disturbing our food supply at that time.
24:06 And also the energy supply.
24:08 And if we look at it now,
24:11 what happened was added with a decrease in the economy,
24:16 the economic energy from China.
24:19 This decrease in China's economic energy,
24:22 in my opinion,
24:23 has a big impact on Indonesia.
24:26 Because, again, our trade is very dependent on China,
24:31 where a small decrease in their economic energy
24:36 will have a significant impact.
24:38 Especially if we look at the predictions
24:42 of several international institutions,
24:44 in the future,
24:46 China's economy may not grow by 5%.
24:50 Whereas China's growth rate is optimal,
24:53 it can reach 6%.
24:55 This year, it hasn't reached 6%.
24:57 5%.
24:59 So, this is what I think is a pressure.
25:02 Because it could be that in the future,
25:04 we will experience another current account deficit.
25:07 So, in 2024,
25:09 the surplus that we feel today
25:12 may not be achieved.
25:14 Oh, 43 consecutive months.
25:16 Yes, it could be that the record will be broken.
25:19 Stopped.
25:20 So, it will stop in 2024.
25:24 The reason is that,
25:25 from the point of view of China's demand,
25:29 it has decreased.
25:30 We also know that the windfall of commodities
25:33 is no longer enjoyed.
25:36 Where the price of coal, the price of CPOs,
25:39 everything has decreased.
25:41 And this will certainly have an impact on Indonesia
25:44 when Indonesia still relies on
25:48 its natural commodities
25:50 to grow the economy nationally.
25:54 So, the key is how in 2024
25:58 we have to be more productive
26:00 compared to 2023
26:02 in terms of how we can
26:04 industrialize some of the natural commodities
26:08 that are our dependents.
26:10 Like I mentioned earlier,
26:12 especially coal and CPOs.
26:14 Okay, so it also increases consumption
26:16 in domestic countries.
26:18 That's what we can do.
26:19 That's what we can inform.
26:21 Mr. Sarman, talking about global economic pressure,
26:23 geopolitics is getting wider.
26:25 So, in Ukraine, Russia,
26:27 now we know in Israel, Hamas, and Palestine.
26:31 Where do you see it?
26:32 How much pressure is felt
26:34 by Indonesian entrepreneurs
26:36 when this global pressure
26:38 is really affecting them throughout the year?
26:41 Well, especially in our industry sector
26:45 that is oriented to export.
26:48 Okay.
26:49 That will certainly be affected.
26:51 And we see, as I said earlier,
26:54 that our garment industry,
26:57 our textiles, our footwear,
26:59 even now, they are not in a normal position.
27:02 They are still under pressure,
27:03 especially our tight industry.
27:06 Even the government itself
27:08 has given a dispensation
27:11 to our garment industry
27:13 on how they can pay their salaries
27:17 up to 25%, 75% in this matter.
27:20 How do they survive in this matter?
27:23 Yes.
27:24 But we also hope that
27:26 entrepreneurs must be more creative
27:29 in looking for new countries,
27:31 new export, new export methods, for example.
27:33 Sometimes maybe like in the Latin American region,
27:37 for example, the African region, for example.
27:39 Because the function of our big companies,
27:43 for example, above our suppliers,
27:45 this must also be empowered.
27:47 How they are not only in political diplomacy,
27:51 but their economic diplomacy must also work.
27:53 They must help find new export forces
27:57 for our countries in this matter.
28:00 Yes, that's one.
28:01 Of course, what we hope for is
28:04 how the government can really
28:08 strengthen the local economic potential.
28:13 This is our hope.
28:14 So, for example, as I said earlier,
28:16 the obligation of the government,
28:18 in this case, the budget of the regional government,
28:21 the budget of the central government, the BUMN,
28:23 almost Rp1 trillion,
28:25 to ensure the purchase of domestic products.
28:27 I think this is also very good.
28:28 Okay.
28:29 This is very strategic.
28:31 Yes.
28:32 Then the second, of course,
28:34 how in a situation like this,
28:36 for example, our government also maintains
28:39 the price of our food, for example.
28:44 How is the price of gas,
28:46 the price of electricity tariff, for example,
28:49 and others that are in touch with the lives of many people,
28:53 don't raise it, for example.
28:54 So that our household consumption is also maintained,
28:57 because we know that 60% of our economy consumption
28:59 is supported by the household consumption.
29:01 Right.
29:02 But for next year, we are still optimistic.
29:06 We are still optimistic, hopefully,
29:08 this foreign geopolitics can run safely.
29:14 For example, it can be solved,
29:16 it doesn't spread everywhere,
29:18 so that this global economy can also grow,
29:20 and also have an impact on our national economy.
29:23 Yes, Pak Sarman, but the next problem,
29:25 okay, the global economy,
29:27 then we can look for an alternative country to export.
29:30 But there are also many countries that usually rely on exports,
29:33 and finally make Indonesia as the target of exports,
29:37 or their products markets,
29:40 which eventually disrupts the market in the water itself,
29:43 like local businesses.
29:46 Yes, I think so.
29:49 Indeed, the government must focus,
29:51 must also focus on monitoring the illegal imported goods.
29:58 Okay.
29:59 Because it is true,
30:00 on the one hand, the government has a target,
30:03 how we reduce imports.
30:06 Okay, we agree.
30:07 But don't let, for example,
30:10 on one side, the legal goods that come in,
30:13 it is difficult to enter,
30:14 but on the other side,
30:15 these illegal goods, many come in.
30:18 Now this will damage the market in this matter.
30:20 Moreover, there are so many of our illegal goods,
30:23 which are illegal,
30:25 are products that can be produced by the nation's children,
30:29 which can be produced by our national economy.
30:31 I think there must be some kind of,
30:34 is it a task unit,
30:36 for example, a gas unit,
30:37 how to make the doors that are predicted
30:41 can enter these illegal goods,
30:43 it can be closed.
30:45 So we hope that,
30:48 don't let Indonesia become a target
30:51 of various products,
30:53 goods that are illegal.
30:55 That's one.
30:56 The second,
30:57 that there are many digital platforms
31:01 that are also currently used to sell various products
31:04 in other countries.
31:06 This must also be anticipated.
31:08 How to make it,
31:10 like for example,
31:11 this is new,
31:13 what is it called,
31:15 TikTok shop has been given permission, for example.
31:17 Right?
31:18 Yes, it has been given permission.
31:19 But we urge the government,
31:21 it can be given permission,
31:23 but it must be monitored.
31:24 It must be given some kind of,
31:26 let's say, a limit that they can only sell foreign products.
31:31 The rest must be domestic.
31:33 That's one example,
31:35 we protect the entry of foreign goods
31:39 in our digital platforms.
31:44 Yes, yes, that means the focus of Mr. Sarman, Mr. Kadin, and Mr. Andri,
31:48 how can we increase it again,
31:50 domestic markets while being protected again
31:53 from thousands of foreign products.
31:55 We will discuss later what the strategy is like,
31:57 from Kadin or what is expected from the government in the next segment.
32:00 Mr. Sarman and Mr. Andri, we will be back in a moment.
32:02 And Mr. Mirsa, stay with us.
32:04 Okay, Mr. Mirsa, still discussing an interesting topic today.
32:07 Indonesia's economic journey in 2023
32:10 and its projections in 2024.
32:12 Mr. Andri, we are concerned about the investment climate
32:16 that has been built by the government.
32:18 If Mr. Sarman's focus was because of global pressure,
32:21 it's okay, we focus on how to increase domestic markets
32:25 and maintain the purchasing power of the people.
32:27 So, if possible, sensitive goods.
32:29 So, Mr. Sarman said, don't increase it,
32:31 so that we can maintain the purchasing power of the people.
32:34 Investment climate, in terms of the in-depth view so far,
32:37 is it already in line with expectations?
32:39 Is it also in line with how markets can be formed
32:44 with comfort for the business world and the people as buyers?
32:48 If we talk about the investment climate,
32:51 of course we have to talk about
32:53 how to increase confidence of the business owners themselves.
32:58 If we look at it from the perspective of ease of doing business,
33:03 I think it's no longer an issue.
33:06 But when you're already doing business,
33:09 that's the question.
33:11 When you're already doing business,
33:13 what incentives should be obtained by business owners?
33:17 Sometimes fiscal incentives are not used much by business owners.
33:23 Why is that?
33:24 Because it may not be a fiscal incentive that is needed by business owners.
33:28 It may be what Mr. Sarman said earlier,
33:32 that it may be the price of energy that should be lowered.
33:36 If we talk about fiscal incentives,
33:39 maybe tax holiday is given,
33:41 but the price of gas is still quite high.
33:44 The price of electricity is still quite high.
33:47 In my opinion, this doesn't match up with the needs of the investor himself.
33:53 And we see that the investment in Indonesia is still not even.
33:59 If it's claimed that investment in East Indonesia has increased,
34:04 it has indeed increased, but it's still in the nickel level.
34:08 Where I think it hasn't given a significant impact and multiplier to the existing economy.
34:18 So, again, what kind of investment do we want?
34:21 Actually, it's a quality investment.
34:23 When we talk about this quality investment,
34:27 we have to look at the indicators that can describe a quality investment.
34:32 One is the welfare indicator in the area of investment.
34:37 The second is the absorption of labor.
34:40 This is still not good enough.
34:42 Because if we look at the data,
34:44 our foreign direct investment has increased,
34:47 but the labor from foreign direct investment has decreased.
34:50 That's actually an issue.
34:52 Is this really a capital-intensive issue?
34:55 Or is it because our domestic demand is still not absorbed by the industry
34:59 because of the skill gap?
35:02 I think we have to go back to the fact that investment can depend on several things.
35:08 Okay, Mr. Sarman, what do you think about this?
35:10 According to the perspective of Indef, it's actually on the track.
35:13 But when the implementation, when the action,
35:16 new challenges arise with the investment that has been given a red carpet with policies.
35:21 And the incentives that have been given,
35:23 but it still doesn't seem to absorb a lot of labor.
35:27 As you said earlier, maybe there was a skill gap there.
35:30 What do you think about the government's policies
35:34 regarding the development of business in the country?
35:37 So if we look at it,
35:43 the level of trust of investors in Indonesia is already quite good.
35:49 It's quite high.
35:51 And we can prove that, for example,
35:54 from 2020 until now,
35:58 we can see that the achievement of the investment target can reach the target in this matter.
36:05 And the report from BKPM in the third quarter of 2023
36:11 has also reached 7.2 percent,
36:16 which is around 1.53 trillion.
36:19 From the target of 1.4 trillion.
36:22 I agree, Mr. Andre,
36:24 that when we invest,
36:29 we have to support our capable employees.
36:33 This is also a challenge.
36:35 Because we see that these investors need ready-to-use employees,
36:41 who have skills.
36:43 But we do see that
36:46 our labor market,
36:48 almost 90 percent, is still dominated by
36:51 the background of education, which is declining in this matter.
36:55 And a lot of it is absorbed by the industry.
36:58 We see that industries that have provided technology
37:02 are not ready for this.
37:05 This is our task,
37:07 that in the future, when the investment trend is quite large,
37:10 we have to prepare our labor markets
37:15 that also have a skill.
37:17 So that in the future, we no longer have a controversy about the IMF every year, for example.
37:22 Because the IMF problem is also an issue that is not good for many investors.
37:28 Because only in Indonesia, every year there is a demo of the IMF problem.
37:34 This is not because our labor market still needs improvement.
37:40 If you already have the skills, you already have the ability,
37:44 there is no longer a problem with the IMF.
37:46 They will be paid above the IMF at this time.
37:50 This is our task,
37:52 we have to increase this focus, for example.
37:54 How do entrepreneurs also be encouraged,
37:57 how can they also improve their skills than their employees.
38:01 This is our task together,
38:03 so that we can move forward,
38:05 that between the investment that comes in,
38:08 at the end also with a large labor market.
38:11 What is the strategy of the Indonesian KDIN itself to overcome the bottleneck?
38:16 If it can be said, there is a skill gap,
38:19 then that the investment that goes into technology,
38:23 high technology can also be one of the challenges for Indonesian workers.
38:29 Yes, Mas, so we are like this, from our KDIN,
38:32 through, at the moment there is a deputy chairman in the field of vocation,
38:36 so at the moment we are increasing the vocation program in this matter.
38:40 Working with various industries in this matter.
38:43 We have done that.
38:45 The second thing we also want to encourage,
38:47 how to make our SMK employees,
38:50 we also have to, like there is in Germany for example,
38:54 SMK there is only one year of theory,
38:58 for two years they have been practicing in the large industry.
39:02 We hope it will be like that in Indonesia in the future.
39:04 How do we want to push our SMK,
39:07 only one year he is in class,
39:09 give him two years of working in all large industries,
39:13 so that they already have a backup,
39:16 when they graduate, they are ready to work.
39:19 Then the third thing is how to make our workplaces
39:24 also have to be innovated.
39:26 No longer manual like this.
39:28 They also have to, in a word,
39:30 adjust with the current technological development.
39:33 So that the graduation of this SMK company
39:35 also meets the expectations of industry businessmen in this matter.
39:40 Okay, Mr. Herman, we will see later what it is like,
39:43 with various challenges that have existed since 2023,
39:46 with policies that have been done,
39:49 actually with extraordinary efforts by the government,
39:52 to build our economy can remain solid like that.
39:55 We will discuss in the next segment,
39:57 we still have one last segment,
39:59 and Mr. Mirsa, we will be back soon after the next conversation.
40:02 Thank you for still joining us in Mark's Review,
40:05 discussing the journey of Indonesia's economy
40:07 throughout 2023 and its projections for 2024.
40:11 How about you?
40:13 From an in-depth perspective,
40:15 looking at the projections of Indonesia's economic potential,
40:18 with the challenges that we have already discussed in the previous segment.
40:21 What does it mean?
40:22 Will optimism still grow high in the middle of the election?
40:27 If we talk about the challenges earlier,
40:30 and we look at the election year in 2024,
40:34 of course we also look at the previous years,
40:37 2014, 2019,
40:40 where in these years,
40:42 economic growth is actually lower than the previous year.
40:46 And we see with the challenges that exist,
40:50 and geopolitical conditions that we cannot predict,
40:54 of course, economic growth, in our opinion,
40:58 is at around 4.8%.
41:01 So it's lower than this year.
41:04 And also lower than the government's target.
41:07 The reason is,
41:09 it is very likely that what happened in 2009,
41:13 is the consumption dropped during the election year.
41:17 And we also see a decrease in the election year in 2024.
41:24 The decrease is still at 0.1%.
41:27 So it's still not big enough.
41:30 But of course, we don't want to be lower than that.
41:34 If from the inflation itself,
41:37 I think it's around 3.2%.
41:41 Again, it's still higher than the government.
41:44 Why is that? Because we still see that
41:47 volatile foods, the price of food,
41:50 will still contribute to a fairly large inflation.
41:53 Especially El Nino, it will still be predicted until 2024.
41:57 So this is in my opinion, a challenge for inflation.
42:00 And the exchange rate, I think, is at 15,500.
42:03 So this 15,500 is because of the problem,
42:07 we are still facing a high global flower population,
42:11 and it still gives a boost to the high flower population in the country.
42:16 So I think it's also an indicator,
42:19 and what we discussed earlier is the current account deficit problem,
42:23 which will occur in 2024.
42:25 So the pressure will have an impact on our exchange rate condition.
42:31 But isn't the political year a booster for the economy?
42:35 Do you think it will be different in 2024?
42:39 Yes, it will. If we look at it,
42:42 let's go back to the investment, for example.
42:45 The investment itself is still a wait and see.
42:48 Who will be chosen?
42:51 Until today, we see that the investment is still quite high,
42:55 but in 2024, they will still hold.
42:58 At least if we look at the first round,
43:01 maybe at least in February, the maximum is in October.
43:05 So I think that will happen.
43:09 And the next thing is, we hope that consumption can increase,
43:13 but if we look at the previous years,
43:16 the voters still can't support household consumption.
43:22 We are afraid that this will affect our economic growth.
43:28 That's it from Indef.
43:30 From the business sector, how is it? Indonesia's economic projection in 2024
43:36 seems to be below 5%.
43:40 What about you, Din?
43:42 Yes, Mr. Sarman?
43:48 It's muted, sir.
43:51 We hope it meets the government's target.
43:55 It's still like what Mr. Ingrid said,
43:58 in the range of 4.8% to 5.2%.
44:01 We hope it can be reached 5% in the future.
44:06 With the first requirement,
44:08 how can the government maintain the stabilization of our household prices?
44:13 That's one.
44:15 Of course, the second one, we hope too,
44:18 because this is a political year,
44:21 we hope that the campaign spending will be maximized
44:28 and buy domestically in this matter.
44:31 Because we are continuing,
44:33 let's say our election results,
44:35 if for example, one round is over,
44:38 but if two rounds, it will continue.
44:40 Right?
44:41 It means there will be more campaign spending.
44:43 Then there will be more so-called interim elections
44:47 throughout Indonesia.
44:49 This will also be a lot,
44:51 the amount is also trillions,
44:53 the amount of campaign spending.
44:54 We hope this will also be able to improve our economy in this matter.
44:59 Now, of course, what we most hope for is
45:02 how to make the process,
45:05 whether the election results and the election status,
45:07 run conducive, not quarrelsome,
45:10 so that it will not reduce the level of trust investors to enter.
45:15 Indeed, what I said earlier is definitely there is a white and silver.
45:21 But we also study,
45:23 if our country is running conducive,
45:27 for example, we hope they will realize their investment as soon as possible
45:32 in Indonesia in this matter.
45:34 Then the third, our hope, as I said,
45:37 we hope that the government is responsive
45:41 to various dynamics of the global and national economy,
45:44 so that they respond through policies
45:49 that are pro-business and pro-business world.
45:51 Policies that are able to promote the world business order in this matter.
45:55 So we hope that in 2024,
45:58 our economic growth is still optimistic,
46:00 it can be estimated at 5%.
46:01 Okay, that's the optimism that is still being built
46:04 by the business world and also the economy
46:07 in 2024,
46:09 where it is expected that the election will be more conducive,
46:12 will create another investment climate
46:14 that may be more peaceful for the investor world.
46:17 Okay, Mr. Sarman, thank you very much for the time you gave to the audience
46:22 and also Mr. Andri, we have to invite you for our dialogue today.
46:26 And the audience, one hour is up,
46:28 I am present in the Market Review program,
46:31 I am Prasetya Wibowo,
46:32 with the staff of UNUDRI.
46:35 Thank you and see you.
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