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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 And the first one, that's right.
00:07 The first one is going to be Zach Gallen.
00:10 You're gonna say, "Joe, Zach Gallen is great.
00:13 "He struck out 220 guys last year in 210 innings.
00:16 "He had a 3-4-7 ERA, a 1.12 whip.
00:18 "He was tremendous."
00:19 He was, and he was tremendous in the playoffs.
00:22 That's my problem.
00:24 210 innings, a career high for him.
00:26 Previous high was 184.
00:29 But now we're throwing in 60 more innings, okay?
00:33 Because he got to 243 last year
00:36 with the playoffs and World Series combined.
00:39 Now, 243, that's a workload
00:40 for Roger Clemens back in the day.
00:42 That's a workload for Randy Johnson and Greg Maddox.
00:45 It's not a workload we see
00:46 for young pitchers in Major League Baseball.
00:49 And whenever you see those workloads pile up,
00:52 historically speaking,
00:53 the next year is not good for that pitcher.
00:55 So what I'm saying is,
00:57 currently he's the 32nd player going off the board.
01:01 He's going in the top 10 pitchers.
01:03 That's my problem when it comes to Zach Gallen.
01:05 Zach Gallen currently going
01:07 as pitcher number eight off the board.
01:09 Pablo Lopez going after him.
01:12 Again, no respect for Pablo.
01:14 Tyler Glasnow, George Kirby, Aaron Nola.
01:17 All Aaron Nola does every single year
01:19 is strike out 200 guys.
01:20 He has had 200 strikeouts every single season
01:23 except for 2020, since 2018.
01:26 And 2020, guess what?
01:27 It was a shortened season for the pandemic.
01:28 Let me run all these numbers.
01:29 2018, 224, 229, 223, 235, 202 for Aaron Nola.
01:34 Now, the ERA will fluctuate a little bit,
01:37 but he's a pretty steady guy.
01:40 My concern is when you look at Zach Gallen
01:43 in that early, you know, second, third round
01:45 where you gotta take him,
01:47 it feels like I'd rather wait another round or two
01:49 after that and take Aaron Nola.
01:51 Your thoughts on Zach Gallen?
01:53 As great as he is, do the innings concern you
01:56 the way it concerns me?
01:57 - Well, I'm looking at it
01:59 from the drafter's perspective as well.
02:02 It just seems that most people, you mentioned it,
02:05 aren't gonna take a pitcher in the first round.
02:06 They'll go with their desired hitter.
02:08 Then they'll maybe try to build their staff.
02:11 My advice would be, if you're gonna take a pitcher
02:13 in the second round and then try to supplement it again
02:16 in the third, so you're gonna go hitter, pitcher, pitcher,
02:18 Zach Gallen shouldn't be there
02:20 because of what Joe just said.
02:22 People don't think about those high stress,
02:25 as Joe called them earlier, playoff innings.
02:27 You need to look at those as not just a regular inning.
02:31 You ever have a regular day at work
02:32 and then you have a real bear of a day at work?
02:35 It's a much different day, but it's still a day.
02:38 It wears differently.
02:39 So I'm with you on this.
02:40 If there are other players, you mentioned Nolan Lopez.
02:44 Unless you have a certain affinity for Gallen,
02:46 I think it's smarter to go a different direction.
02:50 If Gallen is still there, then God bless you.
02:53 Joe, who's next?
02:54 - Well, who's next is another starting pitcher, Dylan Cease.
02:57 The ADP is at 94 right now currently.
03:00 And he had a 4.63 ERA last year,
03:02 coming off a season where everybody expected
03:04 there was going to be massive regression about the ERA.
03:07 'Cause in 2022, that number was 2.20.
03:11 And if you look at all the FIP and the XERA,
03:13 it was all screaming that his ERA
03:15 should have been in the fours.
03:17 And guess what?
03:18 His ERA ended up in the fours.
03:19 Worse than we all thought.
03:20 It was 4.63 last year and the whip was 1.42.
03:24 Too many walks, too hit a ball at times,
03:27 striking potentials there, but too inefficient too.
03:29 177 innings for a White Sox team that let's face it,
03:32 is not very good and was not good last year.
03:34 So now again, the White Sox are really tough investment.
03:38 I think overall, Dylan Cease is a tough investment.
03:41 But what makes it even harder
03:42 is he's going in the same range.
03:43 He's the 28th pitcher off the board currently
03:45 in consensus ADP at Fantasy Pros.
03:48 That's where Justin Steele is going.
03:50 I want Justin Steele, hands down.
03:52 Joe Musgrove is going right after him.
03:55 Joe Musgrove's 2021 and 2019 seasons,
04:00 I mean, can we just talk about
04:02 how good Joe Musgrove has been?
04:04 2022, excuse me, and 2021,
04:08 both of those years better than anything
04:10 Dylan Cease has really ever shown us.
04:12 I understand why people are concerned
04:14 with Joe Musgrove and the shoulder,
04:15 but everything's been pretty good so far.
04:16 After that Tanner Bybee, Cole Reagan,
04:18 some guys with some big upside,
04:20 Dylan Cease's ADP I think is nuts right now.
04:23 To me, it's a risk you don't have to take.
04:25 And if you're looking in that range
04:27 and he's the best pitcher on the board,
04:28 I would pivot to hitter instead
04:30 and then wait and take another shot
04:31 at one of these younger guys.
04:32 'Cause I do think you can find more talent
04:35 a la Michael King, who we just talked about,
04:37 or Bailey Ober going way later than this too.
04:41 So I don't understand why anybody would be
04:44 jumping the gun here on Dylan Cease
04:46 on a bad White Sox team just for the strikeouts
04:49 when he's gonna crush your ratios,
04:51 crush your whip, crush your ERA,
04:53 and probably not give you a lot of win potential either.
04:55 I don't understand it.
04:56 I don't see it.
04:57 Again, the strikeouts are great,
04:59 but considering the talent around him, Matt,
05:02 I just can't take him there.
05:03 Can you?
05:04 - Here's the thing.
05:06 I personally know, but I can see how the drafter
05:10 would go hitter heavy and then find themselves
05:12 in the eighth, ninth round and saying,
05:14 oh, look, there's 200 plus strikeouts.
05:16 I can definitely see that,
05:18 but there's a better way to do it.
05:20 Because even if you went hitter heavy,
05:22 by the time you started to dive into the pitchers,
05:25 there are still enough guys out there that you can find.
05:29 Don't let, like Joe said, the 200 strikeouts flee.
05:31 If they're still sitting there in the ninth round,
05:32 you say, how can I pass that up?
05:34 Well, you've done something wrong up until there
05:36 if you're finding yourself so in need
05:38 of these 200 plus strikeouts.
05:40 And I hope Joe would agree.
05:41 (upbeat music)
05:44 (bells chiming)