This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 27/03/2024.
Finally a drier and bright day or two during the long weekend. However, it's unlikely to last... Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
Finally a drier and bright day or two during the long weekend. However, it's unlikely to last... Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. A look at the long weekend for the Easter
00:06 break and beyond into the first week of April. What a surprise for you and that is that it's
00:12 not going to be a complete washout this Easter weekend. There will be some warm sunshine,
00:18 albeit not throughout the entire four days. Of course, we are looking at some unsettled
00:23 weather as well and certainly in the lead up to Easter, the jet stream is sitting to
00:28 the south of the U.K. That generally means it's cool and it's unsettled across the U.K.
00:34 and you can see how that reflects in the pressure pattern. Low pressure to the west or southwest
00:40 as we go into Wednesday night and that low is bringing some colder weather in from the
00:45 west and southwest and as that cold weather sits in place, it's going to mix with a band
00:52 of rain that's moving up from the continent, this occluded front which will bring a spell
00:57 of wet weather overnight into the start of Thursday. This is 2 a.m. on Thursday and you
01:01 can see that spell of rain across southern and central parts. Some heavy rain in places
01:07 could cause some issues that wet weather first thing, but also as it mixes with the colder
01:11 air, you could see some sleet and wet snow in a few spots, most likely over higher parts
01:16 of Wales and then later into the Midlands and Northern England before quite quickly
01:21 it warms up. So, there are two issues perhaps with snow, but mostly this is wet snow falling
01:27 over higher parts of Wales and it very quickly disappears through the morning as milder air
01:31 returns from the southwest. But that milder air from the southwest is going to be accompanied
01:38 by some very unsettled conditions. Low pressure close to the southwest as you can see, driving
01:43 spells of rain and showers. These showers across Wales and the southwest, very lively,
01:47 hail and thunder of possibility and accompanied by an increasingly strong wind, that wind
01:53 reaching gusts of 50 to 60 perhaps more miles per hour along the south coast, could cause
01:58 some issues through Thursday, so a yellow wind warning in force. And the rain also could
02:03 cause some issues across Northern Ireland, compounding the issues of course with the
02:08 rain that we saw throughout the last few days and further back of course some very saturated
02:14 conditions there for eastern parts of Northern Ireland, in particular the Antrim Hills where
02:18 another 30mm of rain through Thursday could cause localised flooding. So, an unsettled
02:23 afternoon for many places, but it is going to be turning milder through the day, 11 to
02:27 12 Celsius in the south, still on the chilly side there across the north and the east of
02:31 Scotland, albeit with less rain compared with the further south across the country. There
02:37 will be some spells of wet weather later on Thursday into the east and the north of Scotland
02:41 as the low pressure responsible moves into the North Sea. Further showers follow into
02:45 the south as well, but a gap there perhaps across central parts as we begin Friday, some
02:51 early sunshine with a fresh feel. The cloud quickly builds through the day and by the
02:57 afternoon on Good Friday, well it's looking like a fairly bright picture out there, but
03:01 there will be a number of showers still remaining. It's really a day of sunny spells and showers.
03:07 The showers where they do occur will rattle through quickly on the wind, but they'll be
03:11 lively where they occur with the chance of some thunder and also the chance of some gusty
03:17 winds. Temperatures of 13 or 14 Celsius in the south will feel a bit warmer compared
03:21 with Wednesday and Thursday further north, likewise a little bit milder, 9 or 10 degrees.
03:28 And then by the time we get to Saturday, well, here's the slightly drier weather that I mentioned
03:34 at the start of the forecast. Still some showers around, particularly towards the west, but
03:38 towards the east, actually some places will escape with a dry day on Saturday, some decent
03:43 sunny spells and where we see that sunshine and with lighter winds, it will feel quite
03:48 pleasant I suspect, the sun gaining strength at this time of year. This is the temperature
03:53 difference by Saturday compared with the time of recording, Wednesday the 27th March. And
03:58 as you can see, a large part of the map is warmer on Saturday compared with Wednesday,
04:04 significantly warmer in places, for example, more than 6 degrees warmer the far north of
04:08 Scotland and for some of these central and eastern parts of England. So, a temperature
04:14 trend that is upward slanting as we go into the weekend and also some sunny spells to
04:22 be enjoyed, especially later Saturday and into the first part of Easter Day. But later
04:28 on Easter Day, there is a little system that's emerging on the continent that could just
04:33 etch a spell of rain into the east of England and track across the country. I say could
04:38 because there's a lot of uncertainty about this developing system. It's to do with how
04:43 the jet stream is shaped across the continent and temperature differences that result in
04:49 this formation of this low pressure, for example. But there are significant differences in the
04:56 various computer models. So, the Met Office model has that spell of rain in the east of
05:02 England whilst other models don't have it at all. For example, the European model has
05:07 showery rain focused towards the west and the American model has a bit of rain towards
05:12 the southeast, but mostly the wetter weather is towards the west and southwest on Easter
05:18 Day. So, still a lot of uncertainty. At the moment, we slightly favour what's going on
05:24 in this middle panel here with showery rain more likely towards the west. Either way,
05:29 Easter Day is likely to start dry, but through the day there's this increased chance of some
05:36 rain or showers developing. And the trend is for it to turn increasingly unsettled by
05:42 the time we get to Easter Monday. We've still got the jet stream to the south. We've still
05:46 got areas of low pressure here and there and those areas of low pressure are likely to
05:51 drift close to the UK at times for the start of next week to bring further spells of rain.
05:56 Meanwhile, the jet stream starts off very amplified across the Atlantic, but this branch
06:03 of the jet stream cuts off into its own circulation which allows another branch of the jet stream
06:08 to whiz across the Atlantic, pick up areas of low pressure and send them on a south shifted
06:13 track towards the UK. So, for the start of next week, increasingly unsettled as the jet
06:18 stream sends further lows in towards the country with spells of rain most likely towards the
06:23 south and the east, drier towards the north although an increasing easterly wind for Scotland,
06:29 perhaps turning cloudy with some showers in the east. This is how things are looking for
06:33 Tuesday and into Wednesday then. We've got that south shifted jet stream. We've got the
06:37 low pressure systems moving in from the west and southwest. The wettest weather once again
06:42 towards the south and the west, drier towards the north and the northeast, but it's possible
06:49 that many areas will see rain and showers throughout next week. That trend towards areas
06:55 of low pressure returning from the Atlantic on a south shifted jet stream is reflected
06:59 by this bar chart which shows this increased chance through the first week of April of
07:06 this colour. This colour represents a weather pattern which is associated with south shifted
07:12 low pressure and that generally looks like this. So, this is the most likely weather
07:18 pattern for later next week. Low pressure to the west or southwest of the country, spells
07:23 of rain or showers moving in from the southwest, temperatures not far from average although
07:28 the possibility of some colder conditions at times in the far north and the driest spells
07:36 most likely towards the north, the wettest weather most likely towards the south. If
07:41 you think you've heard all of that before, it's because it's the same kind of weather
07:44 pattern we've seen so much of during recent weeks and months. Hopefully, it will change
07:48 at some point in April, but for now, staying unsettled.
07:51 [BLANK_AUDIO]