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00:00 This Thursday, April 4th marks the founding of the North Atlantic Trade Alliance 75 years ago in
00:05 1949 but in the midst of all the ceremonies and speeches NATO is facing one of its most serious
00:11 challenges since it emerged from the ashes of World War two
00:15 Its relevance has been heightened in recent years since the start of the war in Ukraine
00:20 But as NATO is increasing its military aid there the prospect of a new Trump presidency has many in the Alliance worried
00:29 North America also needs Europe
00:32 European allies provide world-class militaries
00:37 vast intelligence networks and unique diplomatic leverage
00:42 multiplying America's might
00:45 To NATO the United States has more friends and more allies than any other major power.
00:55 I don't believe in America alone
00:58 Just as I don't believe in Europe alone. I
01:02 Believe in America and Europe together in NATO
01:06 Christine Brzezina is the managing director geo strategy north at the German Marshall Fund of the US
01:15 She joins me now live from Washington DC at Christine
01:18 Thanks so much for taking the time to speak to us a lot of symbolism today there in Brussels
01:22 What message is NATO trying to send with this anniversary today 75 years?
01:28 This is a very big anniversary for NATO and it's trying to show one of strength and also of ambition for the future
01:34 NATO has achieved a great deal in 75 years
01:38 to protect all of its member states protect all of the Allies and
01:43 Now it is seeking to celebrate that victory
01:47 But also to say hey we are looking at the challenges that are coming ahead and we are preparing
01:52 To be a main player in solving those challenges
01:56 Despite some of the isolationist rhetoric we are hearing around the world
02:00 so one thing that has happened in this particular celebration is a discussion over how to
02:06 Give NATO itself a bigger role in
02:09 Providing weapons and coordinating the aid that is going to Ukraine right now
02:15 Ukraine has been told that it could join when the conditions allow and when the Allies agree and there we have seen the
02:24 participation for example of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba at this summit as well
02:29 And so we see the forward-looking
02:32 Nature of NATO right now when NATO is saying we are not only protecting the current Allies
02:40 But we are going to be playing a bigger NATO role on the Ukraine
02:44 challenges and also on other things that are coming ahead because there's a very strong sense of a more
02:51 Dramatically worsening global security environment than we have ever seen
02:55 before
02:57 because of the rise of Russian aggression in
03:00 Ukraine what it could mean for the security prospects of all of the Allies and also some of the other more challenging actors around the
03:07 world taking lessons from the fight that Russia has currently
03:12 Put on to Ukraine. So what effect would you say the war in Ukraine has had on NATO over the past few years?
03:19 I mean just a few years ago, the French president Emmanuel Macron was criticizing the alliance as being brain-dead
03:24 We definitely do not see a brain-dead alliance right now
03:28 The Alliance's purpose hasn't been loud and clear deterrence and defense is what NATO started with and right now
03:35 That is what NATO is focusing on
03:38 We have seen between last summer and this summer a great deal of movement from adapting very robust
03:44 Regional plans that would be able to protect every part of the Alliance
03:49 To now seeing well, how would that work in practice and exercising in bigger exercises more?
03:54 Actively than we have seen and thus far in order to say NATO is active
04:01 NATO is here and NATO is capable of protecting all of the Allies, which is its core mission before the
04:08 Invasion there was a question. Well, what does NATO do?
04:11 Exactly, and so there's a lot of training and partnership
04:15 But right now this is going back to the simple basics of what NATO exists to do and it's to keep the Allies safe
04:22 from land-based state-based
04:24 Aggressors and that is what it is doing today
04:27 so one of the key tenants of the NATO alliances is
04:30 Article 5 and that says if one of the members is attacked the others will step in and join together in its defense
04:36 It's only been used once after September 11th in 2001
04:39 Can you see a scenario where that night might be used in regard to the war in Ukraine?
04:43 There's a lot of concern that the article 5 could be used again in the next few years
04:49 Artic in terms of Ukraine that Ukraine is not a member and so invoking article 5 over
04:55 Ukraine right now is not we're not on the table
04:59 Should Ukraine become a member at some point and have a attack against it?
05:03 Well, that would be a question the bigger concerns for article 5 right now are what are the lessons that Russia is going to draw?
05:10 From its war in Ukraine and if Ukraine doesn't have enough support and if Ukraine falls to Russia
05:16 Then Ukraine will be an example for Russia of the success of aggression on the European continent and then any other
05:24 European ally
05:27 Anywhere along the eastern flank look at the long border of Finland the Baltic States Romania
05:31 any of these countries Poland
05:35 Could also invoke article 5 if they were to be attacked and so the preparations are to say should we be attacked?
05:42 What will we do? How would we cooperate?
05:45 Who goes how do we defend?
05:48 but also the more you
05:50 exercise and the more you plan the less likely any kind of Russian aggression is to succeed and so the planning and
05:58 Practicing in case of invasion actually serves as a deterrent against an invasion because part of the problem
06:04 and part of the cause of the Russia's attack in Ukraine was Russia's perception that Ukraine would fall immediately and so a
06:12 The show of a very robust deterrence and defense serves as a way to tell Russia
06:17 You're not going to get away with it
06:19 You're not going to be able to march as deeply and get as much land as you were able to in Ukraine and here we are
06:25 And we are ready. So just stay in your own borders. Thank you very much
06:29 And that is something we are seeing daily and the hope is that we do not see the need to have article 5 invoked
06:36 Because new data will be so strong that clearly that will have been a mistake for Russia and it will never try it
06:41 All right, Christine. Thanks so much for taking the time to speak to us Christine Brazina there in Washington
06:45 Thank you