经济"不温不火"痛失十年 大马冲击大只能躺平？
八点最热报 | 国际货币基金组织IMF总裁警告，如果世界各国没有妥善处理好国内的通胀和债务，那么在2020年到2029年这十年期间，全球经济就会面临“一个民怨四起，不温不火的20年代”。北方大学经济系教授林福炎认为，在生活成本很高、薪资一直没有增加情况下，人民将会进一步陷入中等收入陷阱。（主播：颜江瀚）
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00:00 Before watching the video, we remind you that there is more content on the Hotpoint website.
00:05 Yesterday, we mentioned in the report that the president of the IMF warned everyone
00:10 that if the world did not properly deal with the domestic inflation and debt issues,
00:16 then between 2020 and 2029,
00:20 the global economy will face a "people's will rises, no heat, no fire" 20th century.
00:27 "No heat, no fire" means that the global economy has lost 10 years of time.
00:31 Just like the beginning of the 1990s, the Japanese economy experienced a "people's will rises, no heat, no fire"
00:37 and it was difficult to recover for many years.
00:40 If the global economy really experienced this "people's will rises, no heat, no fire" phenomenon,
00:44 what impact would it have on Malaysia as a small economy?
00:49 Under the unfavorable environment, can Malaysia only lie flat?
00:53 What can the government do to seize this opportunity?
00:56 Zhang Guolin, the founder of New Capital Investment, said in an interview with the 8 o'clock hotline
01:01 that "No heat, no fire" means that the global economy has no heat, no heat.
01:06 Although the speed of economic growth is slowing down,
01:08 he believes that this does not mean that the economy is ungrowing.
01:12 It's just that the speed of growth is slowing down.
01:15 Professor Lin Fuyan, a professor at the University of Peking University,
01:19 believes that in addition to the slow growth of the economy,
01:21 "No heat, no fire" also means that inflation will continue to rise.
01:25 In the long run, the demand for goods from the United States and China will also decline.
01:31 As a small economy, Malaysia will definitely face a shock.
01:37 For the common people, Lin Fuyan believes that
01:40 in a situation where the cost of living is high and the salary has not increased,
01:44 the people will be further trapped in a middle-income trap.
01:48 To avoid this situation, Lin Fuyan believes that
01:50 the government can only consolidate the economic foundation in the short term,
01:53 reduce fiscal deficit, and attract foreign investment.
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02:35 Professor Lin Fuyan, a professor at the University of Peking University,
02:38 believes that instead of worrying about the "no heat, no fire" situation,
02:41 the government should focus on the economy,
02:44 reduce fiscal deficit, and attract foreign investment.
02:47 The International Monetary Fund reminds governments
02:50 to intervene when the market is in trouble.
02:54 Lin Fuyan also believes that the government's long-term financial measures
02:58 are actually a form of intervention,
03:01 which has caused the free economic market to fail.
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03:53 Lin Fuyan also mentioned that
03:55 as the government continues to implement various tax reforms this year,
03:58 the government should spend the money it collects from taxes
04:01 in the right places to distribute the subsidies to those in need.
04:06 We have been subsidizing for more than 20 years.
04:08 Our subsidization system started in the 1980s.
04:11 So we often say that this is already a shadow.
04:14 It's like a person who has been addicted to drugs.
04:17 He can't let go.
04:18 So we have to let go of this subsidy and take it slowly.
04:21 It has to be done by state.
04:23 It can't be done all at once.
04:24 It will be a big impact on society.
04:26 So we have to take it slowly.
04:28 Of course, the reform will definitely have its shock.
04:30 If we lower the shock to the lowest level,
04:32 it will be hard and sweet afterwards.
04:34 So if we master it well,
04:36 the so-called 2020 will end with a very good economic growth and economic reform.
04:43 Because we are now in 2024,
04:45 we are already in the middle,
04:47 almost in the middle,
04:48 so it's still time.
04:49 Although the International Monetary Fund warns that
04:51 the world will enter a period of instability and uncertainty,
04:53 which makes many people worried.
04:55 But Zhang Guolin believes that
04:57 the economy generally has its own cycle.
04:59 Since the epidemic in the past few years,
05:01 the global economy has experienced turbulence.
05:03 Now it is going to go through the instability and uncertainty of slow growth.
05:07 It is also possible that the world economy will enter a period of reform and transformation in the future.
05:12 From 2020 to 2023,
05:14 I think it is a period of unrest.
05:17 Do you remember? The epidemic, the closure,
05:19 the supply chain problems,
05:21 and of course, there are also very good ones.
05:23 Because the government is spending money on banknotes,
05:25 and the stock market is also very strong.
05:27 It is a period of instability and uncertainty,
05:29 and there is a war.
05:30 In the next 6-7 years,
05:32 what kind of era will we be in in the next 20 years?
05:35 I think it is more important.
05:36 I don't think that 2020 to 2029,
05:39 the whole world will be in a period of instability and uncertainty.
05:43 I am more optimistic.
05:45 I think it is a period of reform and transformation.
05:48 Zhang Guolin also mentioned that
05:50 before entering the reform and transformation stage,
05:53 the five-state government can focus on the development of AI,
05:56 only by preparing themselves can they turn the crisis into a turning point.
06:00 I think technology is more important.
06:02 How to use technology,
06:04 especially AI technology,
06:06 not just in the country,
06:08 but also in the enterprise and individuals.
06:10 I think this crisis is also a good opportunity.
06:12 If you say that AI has come to many people,
06:14 but not many people are very anxious,
06:15 it will be terrible.
06:16 If you think this is an opportunity,
06:17 how can we train our talents to accept AI?
06:21 How to use AI?
06:22 On the contrary, it is a good platform
06:24 for our country to become the 30 best countries in technology innovation in the world.
06:29 We must be competitive.
06:30 I think we should not lose this opportunity.
06:32 In this case, you don't have to worry about the unstable 2020.
06:36 And how to turn this unstable environment around the world
06:39 into a 20-year transformation of our country.
06:43 And not just the country,
06:45 but also the individual.
06:46 You don't have to worry about this environment.
06:48 How to reform yourself?
06:49 If you reform well,
06:51 this 20th century may be a very glorious era for you and me.
06:56 IMF President Geval Giewa also mentioned
07:04 that the current global economic environment is more challenging than ever before.
07:09 The geopolitical tense situation increases the risk of world economic split.
07:14 For this,
07:15 Professor Lin Fuyan, professor of economics at Peking University, also agrees.
07:18 Now regional conflicts are becoming more frequent.
07:21 Uncertainty has also increased.
07:23 So we have to make some adjustments to the policy early
07:27 to avoid this unstable 20th century.
07:33 To be continued...
07:37 To be continued...
07:41 To be continued...