In the latest episode of the Greg Bedard Patriots Podcast with Nick Cattles, Greg and Nick delve into the quarterback situation for the New England Patriots. They share their rankings for the Patriots' quarterbacks and also discuss Mike Giardi's Mock Draft 2.0.
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Get in on the excitement with PrizePicks, America’s No. 1 Fantasy Sports App, where you can turn your hoops knowledge into serious cash. Download the app today and use code CLNS for a first deposit match up to $100! Pick more. Pick less. It’s that Easy!
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00:00 This is the Greg Bidard Patriots podcast with Nick Cavins.
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00:28 All right.
00:29 Let's start with some headlines, Greg, and we got to start with Kyle Duggar re-signing
00:33 with the Patriots.
00:35 This came out over the weekend, four years, $58 million, reportedly 32 and a half million
00:41 guaranteed.
00:42 Your thoughts on that deal?
00:44 Yeah.
00:45 So I really sort of need to see the structure at the end of it.
00:49 Is that $32 million guaranteed like all in the first two years or is it like, you know,
00:56 I could see the Patriots, they've done this from time to time.
00:58 And then the past where it's like, all right, $16 million guaranteed in the first year and
01:02 then split it between the second and third years.
01:06 If it's the latter, I feel a little bit better about it.
01:09 Look, do I think this is a little rich for Kyle Duggar?
01:15 Yes.
01:16 But and you know, have I been critical of the player in the past?
01:20 Yes.
01:21 And I'm not going to back down from that.
01:22 It's just, I think this, the Patriots where they are right now, it's, it's not in a vacuum.
01:29 Like you know, when they're just in a different place, they're restarting their program with
01:35 a new head coach, a new general manager, a new vibe in the building, all that stuff.
01:40 And so you can't really compare like, would you do this?
01:43 Like say if Bill Belichick was here and they were coming off like a playoff year, you know,
01:48 I would probably be more critical of it, but I think that the Patriots overpaid a little
01:53 bit for a guy who has been out there all the time, barely misses any snaps, has been a
02:00 good to very good player for this team, has been a lead by example type of guy.
02:08 I'm fine with that because I think what the Patriots are establishing or reestablishing,
02:13 something that they used to do in the past, but they got away from, which is draft develop.
02:18 If you do the right things, we're going to reward you.
02:21 We're going to keep our core players here.
02:24 And if they overpaid by a couple of million dollars, I'm not going to quibble with that.
02:28 I think it's important for them to reestablish this draft and develop culture in the building.
02:35 And it's something that's a foundation of the Packer way, the Ron Wolf way, which is,
02:40 you know, draft, develop, re-sign your guys that are proven to be good players in your
02:45 system and then go from there.
02:47 So I'm fine with it.
02:49 I think that, you know, probably they can get out of this after two years if Kyle say
02:55 doesn't go to another level, if he's not worth it, that's fine.
02:58 I don't think that's going to be an issue.
02:59 I think Kyle has proven to be very consistent at a good to very good player.
03:03 I don't think he's ever going to be elite and I don't have a problem with that.
03:06 You know, it's, he's a good player.
03:09 They need good players.
03:11 Keep your good players.
03:14 I agree with it.
03:15 You know, I agree with the overall picture and your take on that.
03:18 It is an overpay to me.
03:20 It's absolutely an overpay.
03:22 I know some people are pushing back on that idea.
03:24 When you look at the safety market, it is depressed right now.
03:29 He if it's 32 and a half million guaranteed in the first couple of years, like you said
03:33 that I think that'd be more money guaranteeing that Xavier McKinney.
03:35 So it's a, it's an overpay, but they kept their good player and they kept the guy who
03:41 played what?
03:42 98% of the snaps last year.
03:44 He's a pivotal piece of this defense.
03:46 So I don't have an issue.
03:47 And, and I think this shows us again, Greg, Elliot Wolf, one major change, one major difference
03:53 from bill Belichick is not only are we willing to keep our own guys and pay our own guys,
04:00 we are willing to pay at the top of the market for our own guys.
04:04 You know, Wolf paying a when, who, what, or when who got now this deal with Duggar,
04:09 they're willing to pay these guys at or near the top of the market, which I think speaks
04:13 volumes when you compare it to Jacoby Myers last year, who came out during the Superbowl
04:17 week and said, yeah, the difference was like a million bucks.
04:20 I do ask you though, with this signing, with this extension to Duggar, to me, he has to
04:27 get back to what he is best at closer to the line of scrimmage, how you handle them, Greg.
04:32 Yeah, absolutely.
04:33 I think that he is, he's very similar to Patrick Chung where he didn't really get into a groove
04:40 and really become a really good player in this defense until the second time around
04:45 when they said, all right, let's take what you're good at, which is around the line of
04:51 scrimmage covering tight ends at times.
04:54 And just doing that now, I think that Kyle, Kyle, I think probably his best asset is his
05:02 ability to blitz from the second level.
05:04 I think it's way better than Chung ever was.
05:07 I think with his speed and explosiveness, it gives them a real weapon.
05:11 I think that they're going to utilize that even more.
05:14 And yeah, I think, I think having him around the line of scrimmage, using him as a way
05:20 to attack, pass protections and things like that, that's where he stands out.
05:26 And the more they can have them do that, the more he's going to be impactful and make this
05:31 defense even better.
05:32 All right.
05:33 Something else jumped out at me over the past couple of days.
05:37 And yesterday we had Hunter Henry and Jabril Peppers meet up with the media and they talked
05:42 about how it's different.
05:43 It's different in the building.
05:45 Now you and I both know, everybody knows it's really early.
05:47 Okay.
05:48 It's really, really early to make any kind of grandiose proclamations about the new coaching
05:53 staff and Mayo and how he runs his business.
05:56 But I did find one thing that Hunter Henry said pretty telling.
06:00 Andrew Callahan tweeted this out because Andrew asked him, you know, asked Henry, how is it
06:05 different when Henry said it was different?
06:08 And one of the things that Henry said that stood out to me was quote, just maybe listening
06:13 to you is good.
06:15 Unquote.
06:16 Bill Belichick obviously was somebody who, you know, it was, it was Bill's way or the
06:22 highway.
06:23 Right.
06:24 And it seems like the lines of communication between players and coaches are going to be
06:28 different, especially players to head coach and Mayo is maybe a little bit more open to
06:33 listening to his players really when it comes down to a Greg, is that going to make that
06:39 big of a difference?
06:40 Could that really signify a, a, a big change, significant change, or is it just, well, it's
06:47 early and he wants to make the players feel welcome?
06:50 Well, you know, it's a good question, Nick, and, and there's a lot of different philosophies
06:56 on this.
06:58 I think, I think the number one thing is you know, when it comes to a team dynamic, I think
07:04 accountability is number one, the, the, the coaches holding the players accountable, the
07:10 players coaching, holding the coaches accountable and then being open to that I think is important.
07:17 And I think that's, I think we saw a breakdown of that in the latter years with Bill Belichick,
07:23 especially, you know, with everything that went on with the coaching staff and, and it
07:27 wasn't just the Matt Patricia and Joe judge here.
07:29 It was also last year.
07:31 And I think that it's, it's, it's very hard when, when a player looks at a coach who they
07:39 don't think is up to par because these players like, you know, they really, they want to
07:44 win and they want to know, are you making me a better player so I can make more money
07:49 and, and be secure with my family.
07:51 And I think that, I think that some of the decisions that Belichick made and he didn't
07:55 really explain them and say like, this is why I'm doing this and this is why it's going
07:59 to be good for you.
08:02 That sort of one way street left a lot of doubts in the players' minds and, and it did
08:09 not set the team up for success.
08:11 So I think that just as long as the coaches in the front office especially the coaches,
08:18 as long as they're open and honest and they say, you know, this is where you are and,
08:22 and this is where we expect you to be.
08:24 And this is how we're going to get you there.
08:26 The more conversations like that, the more the, the, the, the players trust in the coaching
08:32 that they're being put in the best position possible.
08:36 And that allows for a very solid foundation for a successful football team.
08:41 All right.
08:42 One more thing I wanted to ask you about before we move on to the draft and, and quarterback
08:47 thoughts since you've worked through a lot of the film was Merrill Hodge.
08:51 Now this has to do with the draft.
08:52 It has to do with Drake May and boy, did this catch a lot of headlines?
08:55 A lot of people talking about it.
08:57 I talked about it yesterday on my podcast.
09:00 Hodge said that drafting May, and this was in a radio interview, I think it was WCCO
09:05 drafting may, we'll get you fired your reaction to that.
09:09 Correct?
09:10 Um, look, I think that I think that Merrill is certainly entitled to his opinion.
09:16 He's somebody that, um, I listened to, I mean, with, with all these guys, uh, you know, I
09:20 respect the position, uh, the opinion and, you know, listen to it, take it in.
09:25 Um, I don't necessarily toss things out.
09:28 I know a lot of people like it's a lot of Patriots fans don't like Merrill Hodge, um,
09:34 from some of his comments about, you know, Belichick and the Patriots in previous years.
09:38 I, I, I just don't go down that, that road.
09:42 So, you know, a lot of what Merrill Hodge said about Drake may is correct.
09:48 Now the w he'll get you fired comment.
09:53 Do I think that's strong?
09:54 Yes.
09:55 But the crux of his opinion about his inconsistency, he compared them to Malik Willis.
10:02 Um, there, you know, about how, like, it's hard to find like a really good game for Drake
10:08 may from start to finish.
10:10 I mean, all this stuff is factually correct now, you know, where I differ from Merrill
10:15 Hodge and, you know, I had a conversation with a long time offensive coordinator last
10:21 week and I'm going to be writing about it sort of the process of, you know, how you
10:25 evaluate quarterbacks in the draft and, and the whole process to it, including like, you
10:30 know, the importance of the 30 visits and, you know, going in and seeing them, um, you
10:36 know, either in their hometown or, um, at their colleges, you know, one thing that that's
10:43 stuck out to me and it sounds simple, but I think people sort of overlook it when they
10:47 talk about these quarterbacks is like you.
10:53 And it's not just like the GM making the pick or the front office making the pick and them,
10:58 them evaluating talent, you know, you need the coaches input because you have to say,
11:03 all right, this is where this player's at.
11:08 What's what's the plan.
11:09 If we take this player, what's the plan, how are we going to use them?
11:14 How does he fit into our offense?
11:16 Um, I, again, all this stuff sounds simple and pretty, um, obvious, but you know, it
11:23 doesn't always go that way.
11:25 A lot of times, like, you know, you, you, you, teams will pick players, especially at
11:30 the quarterback position and say like, well, they're just going to fit into what we do.
11:35 And that's just setting that player up to fail.
11:38 I mean, you could even just look at, you know, Mac Jones from his freshman year, freshman
11:43 year, his rookie year, you know, there was a concrete plan that it was obvious that Josh
11:48 McDaniels at least, and probably Bill Belichick said, all right, this is what this kid can
11:52 do in our offense.
11:54 This is what we're going to ask him to do.
11:56 And then they got away from that and Max career went down.
11:59 And so, um, yes, Drake may has a lot of flaws if you're looking at him as this is a finished
12:06 product, but I think there will be a lot of coaches, including some in the Patriots building
12:10 that say, you know, look at the talent.
12:14 He was not coached well this past year.
12:16 He didn't have a good system, but if, if we do X, Y, and Z with him, when he gets here,
12:22 the sky's the limit for this kid.
12:23 And I, and I think that, um, the plan for the quarterback is, is probably more so important
12:30 than just the evaluation of the quarterback, where they are.
12:36 There are a lot of opinions.
12:39 There's there's just a world full of opinions.
12:42 And as you get closer to the draft, you get more and more opinions.
12:44 So good on Hodge for having an opinion.
12:47 That's how I see it.
12:48 It's just an opinion and everybody's going to feel differently.
12:52 It's very subjective.
12:53 We, you and I have talked about how difficult it is to evaluate a quarterback and get it
12:58 right.
12:59 That's why a lot of teams get it wrong.
13:00 A couple of things though on Hodge, number one, he's not perfect.
13:05 He's not flawless.
13:06 Nobody is.
13:07 He has certainly a history of evaluating quarterbacks, right?
13:12 Johnny Manziel, that, that clip between he and skip Bayless has made the rounds a billion
13:17 times how he told Bayless that Manziel was not a first round pick.
13:21 He also had CJ Stroud relatively high, higher than a lot of other people did.
13:27 However, he also said Justin Herbert was erratic, inaccurate.
13:33 You can't teach a guy to be more accurate.
13:35 He didn't like Herbert.
13:36 He also said he would not touch Jordan Love with a 10 foot pole and that he would draft
13:41 Love in the fifth or sixth round.
13:43 Didn't like the idea that Love called himself a playmaker, which I think really allows you
13:49 to dive into the head of Merrill Hodge.
13:52 He was turned off when Love said that he was a playmaker.
13:55 His point was quarterback should not call themselves playmakers.
13:58 It's 2024 now, Merrill.
14:01 Like yes, they should.
14:03 Patrick Mahomes, the playmaker, Lamar Jackson, the playmaker.
14:06 Like what are we doing here?
14:08 And I also just think that Merrill tends to evaluate the quarterback in the now.
14:13 And Greg, I think it's very important for you and I to say, and we've said it before
14:17 and we will continue to say it.
14:19 When you're drafting a guy, especially at number three, it is not about 2024.
14:25 It's about 2027, 2028 and 2030.
14:29 So Hodge tends to look at these guys as who they are.
14:32 And I don't think he truly appreciates how some guys, not every guy, but some guys can
14:38 progress, get better at a lot of different things.
14:42 And they are just a different quarterback three years from now than what they were in
14:46 their second season as a starting quarterback at the collegiate level.
14:49 Yeah, I mean, I 100% agree with that.
14:53 And you bring up Justin Herbert and Josh Allen and Justin Herbert are both cautionary tales
15:00 for me.
15:01 I mean, we all get things wrong, especially in the draft process.
15:07 Bill Belichick would get things wrong and nobody, basically like 50% is a good batting
15:14 average in the draft.
15:16 But like, you know, Justin Herbert, the lesson I learned from that was, you know, not trying
15:23 to, you have to try to separate the player from the scheme and what's going on around
15:29 him.
15:30 And that's, that's something that I'm trying to apply to somebody like Drake May and, you
15:34 know, Josh Allen, of course we all know his struggles.
15:37 He was a, he was a wild bucking Bronco coming out of Wyoming.
15:41 I mean, he was, he was horrendous, basically his first two years against the Patriots.
15:46 He looked like he couldn't do anything, but like the leap that he made in year three was
15:52 just unprecedented.
15:53 And so, you know, you have to parse through all those things and you also have to realize
15:58 that not every player is the same.
15:59 I mean, you know, maybe, maybe Justin Herbert and Josh Allen were wired in a way that allowed
16:04 them to go to another level in the pros.
16:08 Does Drake May have that?
16:09 I don't know.
16:10 And I don't think any of us are going to know, including the pro teams.
16:14 But I do think that, you know, Merrill and his criticisms, I do think he sort of tends
16:21 to view these guys as finished products where you're looking at a guy like, you know, Drake
16:26 May and JJ McCarthy are like the youngest quarterbacks in this class.
16:29 Whereas Jaden Daniels and, you know, Kay, Bo Nix certainly are older prospects.
16:37 They might be closer to be finished products, just like, you know, Kyle Duggar coming out
16:41 of Lenore Ryan was like 24 years old.
16:44 He just got this contract.
16:45 He's going to be 29 this year.
16:47 Has Kyle Duggar, you know, if the Patriots got Kyle Duggar when he was 21, could he have
16:51 gone to another, an elite level faster?
16:55 Probably.
16:56 So all those things need to be considered.
16:58 Yeah.
16:59 Age matters.
17:00 No doubt.
17:01 Before we move on to the quarterback thoughts, as I said, Greg is mostly done with his quarterback
17:05 film looking at this draft.
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18:02 Tyler O'Neill.
18:03 Whoa.
18:04 That was a bomb yesterday.
18:05 He bust through his jerseys.
18:06 Get all those muscles.
18:07 It's mom's son of youngie.
18:08 All right.
18:09 Uh, let's get back to football though.
18:15 Greg's been in the lab.
18:16 He's been pouring for the film doing lots of work.
18:19 What do you got on Jaden Daniels, Greg?
18:21 Okay.
18:22 So just to be up front, I have a lot more work to do on JJ McCarthy.
18:25 I'm almost done with Jaden Daniels.
18:28 I'm pretty much done with Drake May.
18:31 So everybody knows who's especially listened to this pod.
18:35 I've been touting Jaden Daniels for a very long time, including relaying what I heard
18:40 at the league meetings about Jaden Daniels, which was basically the NFL people that I
18:44 talked to the executives that I respect and they have a good track record with the quarterback.
18:50 They're all over the mood about Jaden Daniels in terms of his, his, his accuracy, throwing
18:56 the ball, his calmness in the pocket, um, his height, his weight's a little less than
19:03 ideal.
19:04 Um, but it looks like he could put on more weight and then also his running ability.
19:08 Now after watching a lot more of Jaden Daniels, um, I will say that I'm not quite as gung
19:16 ho about Jaden Daniels as I was, or these NFL people are.
19:21 And here's why.
19:22 The, the biggest reason, you know, before I really studied him closely and saw like
19:28 multiple games in my eye from the college football season of what I had seen of Jaden
19:34 Daniels and from the opinions that I had received, I thought that his running was dynamic, um,
19:43 elite.
19:44 I don't know if I agree with that anymore.
19:47 I think that he, if you, if you think that he's Lamar Jackson, no, he's not running.
19:55 Um, Lamar is Lamar is much more quick twitch.
20:00 Um, he is much more jitterbug ish.
20:04 Jaden Daniels is more of a straight line runner.
20:06 I would say more along the lines of like a Colin Kaepernick type of player, not quite
20:11 the long legs.
20:13 Um, Jaden Daniels actually has short legs, a big torso.
20:17 So they're, they're different in that regard, but Jaden Daniels, like you don't see him
20:22 making a ton of elusive plays, um, from the pocket.
20:27 Um, yes, he'll, he'll, there'll be called runs and he's great on those because it's,
20:32 it's straight line.
20:34 Sometimes he, he thinks that he's going to get out of pressure with his legs and he doesn't
20:40 because he doesn't have sort of the electric lateral mobility, the quick twitch stuff.
20:45 And so sometimes it gets into trouble.
20:48 Now, is he a good runner?
20:49 Yeah, but it's pretty much, as I said, straight line speed.
20:54 Um, so that's a concern.
20:57 Um, I do, I do really love his throwing.
21:00 Um, I heard there's criticism.
21:03 I was on, I was on TV with Burt Breer on Sunday night and he heard from executives, uh, a
21:10 couple of criticisms of Jaden Daniels, which I don't agree with.
21:14 Number one, that he doesn't throw to the middle of the field that often, which you need to
21:18 do in the pros.
21:20 Um, you know, does he do it as much as everybody else?
21:24 No, he does do it.
21:27 He does do it well, especially the deep, uh, medium to deep middle of the field.
21:33 But I do think a lot of it was LSU scheme and what they asked him to do.
21:39 The other thing that, that Burt said that is a criticism of is that Jaden Daniels doesn't
21:45 throw on the run very much at all.
21:47 I think Burt quoted one team as saying like, you could only count like 12 snaps where,
21:53 uh, he really threw on the move when it wasn't designed.
21:57 Um, that there is some of that.
22:00 Um, but I think that's a little bit overrated.
22:04 I think that he, that is there on film.
22:07 I think he has the ability and I do think it's something, I do think it's more scheme
22:12 specific.
22:13 I think that, I think that teams, especially if you put them in the Patriots offense and
22:18 it's the Alex Van Pelt sort of West coast, he's already doing a lot of the play action
22:23 boots that, that, that, that system asks of the quarterback.
22:27 He already does that.
22:29 And I do think he's capable of a lot more, but I, you know, when you watch him on film,
22:34 sometimes there's been some criticisms about his, his overall arm strength.
22:38 I think he's pretty good to the deep medium sidelines.
22:43 He brings heat when he needs it.
22:45 I think his downfield ability, I think early in the season it was a little bit less.
22:51 I know that some people will look at the Florida state game, uh, which was one of the better
22:56 defenses that he faced and look at that as, you know, he wasn't very successful.
23:02 I look at as it's the first game of the year.
23:05 A lot of those college game, those college schedules, those first games, I mean, they
23:10 haven't done much.
23:11 He was in a new system with new teammates.
23:15 It's the first game.
23:16 I just don't like those games.
23:17 I throw those games out.
23:18 I don't think that they're good barometer for anything.
23:21 And I think as you watch Jaden Daniels last season, as he got more and more comfortable
23:26 in this game with his teammates, what he could do, um, you know, you see a lot of elite play
23:33 as the season goes on now, you know, so I guess the bottom line for me on Jaden Daniels
23:40 is, um, I don't, in my opinion, I think that, and we'll get into the rankings.
23:48 I don't think he's the clear cut number two in this class.
23:54 I think it's a lot more complicated.
23:56 I think Caleb Williams is clearly number one.
23:59 And then I think between Daniels, May and even McCarthy, you get into more of a, you
24:06 know, what's your flavor at quarterback?
24:09 What do you want?
24:10 What do you expect out of the position?
24:12 What is your scheme set up for?
24:14 And I think that's when some of this discussion about May or could it be McCarthy or could
24:20 it be Daniels?
24:21 I do think it's legitimate because I do think it's a little bit, uh, you know, in the eye
24:25 of the beholder.
24:27 The thing with Daniels to me, and I've cooled off a little bit on him too.
24:33 The thing that I keep going back to is pressure to saccharate.
24:36 I talked about this on my podcast earlier this week.
24:39 Now Jaden got much better this year with that statistic.
24:42 He was just over 20% and to be fair to him, Drake, Drake may is just under 20%, 20% seems
24:48 to be some kind of, you know, indicator as success at the NFL level for these guys.
24:55 You go back to last year and Jaden was at like 30%, which is just obnoxiously high.
25:01 The issue though, to me is when you combine that is Jaden, a lot of times will, he'll
25:07 just tuck and run.
25:09 And sometimes he doesn't let plays develop and his initial instinct sometimes it's just
25:13 the, to go.
25:15 And so that can lead to some issues in several different ways.
25:21 I think that's my biggest concern about him is just, he loves to, okay, fight or flight.
25:27 He's flying baby.
25:28 He's he's ready to go and get out of, get out of trouble and just run with the football.
25:35 And then you couple that with, and Drake has some of this too.
25:39 They don't love getting down.
25:40 They don't love getting out of bounds.
25:42 Now Drake is, you know, he's six, four Drake may, and Jaden's tall.
25:47 He's like six, three, six, three and a half.
25:49 But we've talked about the weight in the frame.
25:50 And as Greg said, the torso, you've got a long, long torso, like torso and neck.
25:55 That's all Jaden did.
25:56 I think like just torso and neck with him would just shoes at the bottom.
26:00 And uh, the guy that is so willing to immediately tuck and run with that, with what you said
26:09 about his straight line running, not necessarily shifty, not getting down, not getting out
26:14 of bounds the frame.
26:16 I think that is a legitimate concern.
26:19 Now I'm glad to hear that the middle of the field, you feel better about that because
26:22 that's one of the big questions I've had about him too.
26:25 I think Drake is better because of arm strength, middle of the field and tighter windows may
26:29 will throw it a tighter windows in the middle of the field.
26:33 Jaden is the one thing I will say about Jaden is he's not very turnover worthy.
26:38 I think pro football focus had him down for like seven turnover worthy plays all year.
26:44 But Drake, Drake also is not very turnover worthy.
26:47 There's all this talk about how he's erratic and how he's dangerous and he does these crazy
26:52 things.
26:53 He was sub 2% turnover worthy plays this year.
26:56 So, and he, and he throws the football in a lot of tighter areas in many cases than
27:01 Daniel.
27:02 So I kind of think that's a, an uneven argument there with as far as, you know, turnover worthy
27:09 and how crazy and loose they are with Daniel's running so much more than may.
27:14 I give you that background, Greg, because I asked you last week when we talked about
27:18 Drake, man, you said you would be willing to take that big swing at three with may after
27:23 watching the film of Jaden, would you be willing to take that swing at three for him?
27:27 For Jaden?
27:28 Yeah.
27:29 A couple, for a couple of different reasons.
27:33 You know, a couple of the, you know, crunching some of the numbers on these guys.
27:38 And I think we might've touched on this, but I, I went to went to another stat, but, you
27:46 know, just to what you've talked about.
27:48 So I think Nick, both you and I can agree that we think that, and, and this comes from
27:57 somewhat from looking at Mac Jones and watching him.
28:00 And again I'm not going to just because Mac Jones did not work out here.
28:04 I am not going to say he was not worthy of the pick or is not a good football player.
28:10 I I'm, I'm sorry.
28:11 I'm, I'm just not going to back.
28:12 I'm not going to back off that.
28:14 Like I think he's a good player.
28:15 I think he was worthy of the 15th overall pick and the Patriots let him down.
28:22 We'll see whether that holds true.
28:23 If he ever revives his career, we'll see.
28:26 But you know, I think you and I would agree that, um, seeing how a player operates under
28:33 pressure in crucial situations to me is the biggest indicator of success for a quarterback.
28:41 Now, you know, looking at this year's class and also looking back at Mac Jones when he
28:46 came out of Alabama, looking at these quarterbacks under pressure.
28:51 Okay.
28:52 First of all, I throw Bo Nix out because he was only under pressure like 16% of the time.
28:56 I think you could play quarterback at division one college football under that little pressure.
29:01 And plus they, they, they throw so many quick passes and bubble screens.
29:05 His average depth of target for the whole season for Bo Nix was like 6.8 yards.
29:10 Everybody else was like, you know, 10 plus.
29:12 So it's not apples to apples.
29:15 So I tossed Bo Nix out because I can't tell he wasn't under pressure enough.
29:19 Um, Matt Jones, when he came out of Alabama under pressure, his, the difference between
29:26 his big time throw percentage and turnover worthy plays was just 2.6.
29:32 So he was 5.7 big time throw percentage.
29:36 His turnover worthy plays was 3.1 Jaden Daniels under the same stats, pressure stats.
29:45 His big time throw percentage was 11.3%.
29:48 His turnover worthy plays was 2.8.
29:51 That's a difference of 8.5.
29:53 That is by far better than anybody in this class.
29:57 Now Bo Nix is next, but again, I toss him out.
30:00 Michael Penix was next in sort of the, I call it the BTT TWP differential.
30:07 Bo Nix, Michael Penix was number, uh, number two at, uh, at 5.6.
30:13 Drake May was 4.2.
30:14 JJ McCarthy, interesting enough, was more along the lines of Mac Jones.
30:20 So his big time throw percentage was 10.6.
30:22 His turnover worthy plays under pressure was 6.8, which is by far more than anybody else
30:29 among these top quote unquote tier quarterbacks in this draft.
30:33 Now the other stat that I looked at, um, this is third or fourth down three plus yards to
30:42 go.
30:43 Okay.
30:44 Jaden Daniels had, and I did, I did the NFL passer rating.
30:48 I didn't want to do the college rating, passer rating.
30:50 I don't understand.
30:51 It's just absurd.
30:52 Everything's like 200.
30:54 Uh, this is how it came through.
30:57 Okay.
30:58 Third and fourth down three plus yards.
31:01 Jaden Daniels NFL rating 1 41.5 JJ McCarthy, 1 23.9 Bo Nix 1 23.3.
31:12 Now I also compared because I hear this from a lot of people, especially Drake May supporters,
31:17 like my buddy, Chris Gasper.
31:18 He loves Drake May and any criticisms of Drake May from this season.
31:22 He's like, okay, well, did you watch his junior year tape?
31:26 Okay.
31:27 Drake May in 2022 when things were better around him had a 1 12.3 rating on third or
31:34 fourth downs and plus three yards.
31:37 Drake May this past year, 1 0 7.1.
31:41 So it wasn't a huge differential.
31:43 It was definitely better.
31:44 His, you know, in 2022, but not a huge difference.
31:48 This surprised me.
31:49 Michael Penix came in last by far at 80.2.
31:54 So you take Jaden Daniels under pressure and on third and fourth down to me, he's clearly
32:02 number two in this class.
32:04 And, and you know, I'm going to bet on that.
32:07 If, if it came down to it and say the, the commanders went in a different direction and
32:13 I don't know, all these quarterbacks are on the board, um, my ranking for the quarterbacks
32:18 as of right now, and it might change a little bit.
32:22 Obviously Caleb Williams is number one.
32:24 That's a given.
32:25 I'm still going Jaden Daniels.
32:26 Number two, I'm going Drake May.
32:29 Um, I'm going Drake May number three.
32:34 I forgot to put this on my list, but I'm going McCarthy next after that.
32:38 And then Penix.
32:39 That's it for me as far as the quarterbacks this year.
32:42 All right.
32:45 So I would switch May and Daniels.
32:47 Uh, I just, I like May more than Daniels.
32:51 That's legit.
32:52 And I do think, I do think age matters.
32:54 And I think, you know, the arm plays, I think the frame, especially with the Patriots, I
33:01 do, they're not major concerns, but I do have some concerns about Daniels and his ability
33:06 to play in, in, you know, windy weather, inclement weather, you know, coming from where he's
33:11 come from.
33:12 And so, but I would, I would lean May over Daniels, but I've got Caleb, I've got May,
33:17 I've got Daniels and Penix and Knicks is just, it's so tough to me because Penix has been
33:23 around forever.
33:25 There are things that legitimately concern, uh, myself with, with Penix and mostly it's
33:30 injury.
33:31 And I know people will say, Oh, we checked out clean bill of health.
33:34 Phil Dock Flynn has tweeted about this.
33:36 It's, you know, he ran a great 40.
33:38 He had a, he had a fantastic vertical jump, but it's more about deceleration.
33:42 When you tear your ACL twice, it's more about, you know, sudden shifts in the pocket and
33:47 everything.
33:48 Um, so, you know, pressure sac rate for, for Penix, if you're wondering was incredible.
33:52 I think he was under like 8% this year, which was tops by far.
33:56 So if you're going off of that indicator and he's got a rocket arm, but, uh, you know,
34:01 there's just some things.
34:02 He looks a little nervous to me when he's, when he's getting some heat.
34:07 Uh, he just looks uncomfortable.
34:09 He looked uncomfortable against Michigan and Michigan, you know, took a lot of those deep
34:14 and outside throws away from him and forced him to change his game.
34:17 And he was so uncomfortable where I do wonder if he's a guy that, Hey, look, if I've got
34:22 some weapons around me and we run the scheme that I'm super comfortable with, then I'll
34:26 be good.
34:27 But if I got to do something extra more often than not, then I'm going to get into some
34:31 trouble.
34:32 And Nick says, you said, look, this guy played, you know, he started over 60 games, the most
34:36 in college history.
34:37 The guy, the guy's been in college for, he's like one of those lifetime frat dudes.
34:41 I saw when I used to go to URI, the guys would be like 27 years old, still doing freaking,
34:45 you know, bong hits and keg stands.
34:48 What are they?
34:49 They're like Wooderson.
34:50 I get older.
34:51 They stayed the same age.
34:52 Yes, they do.
34:53 I'll tell you, I got, I had a guy, there was a guy, I wasn't in a frat, uh, you know,
34:58 do what you do.
34:59 I was not a frat guy, but I had a couple of friends that were in a frat and there was
35:03 this one dude in the frat.
35:04 He was, he had, he was like mid to late twenties.
35:06 He was just, he was just there.
35:07 He's still going to school.
35:08 It's like, what are we doing, man?
35:10 Move it along.
35:11 Um, so like Nick's panics, I might even side with Nick's a little bit.
35:17 Um, but you know, I'm looking at the top three and I've got, for me, it's Caleb, it's may
35:24 it's Jaden Daniels.
35:25 All right, before we get to, uh, Mike Giardi's mock draft 2.0 and have a Greg grade his employee.
35:34 This episode is brought to you by prize pick the largest daily fantasy sports platform
35:38 in North America.
35:39 Download the app today.
35:40 Use code CLN as for a first deposit match up to 100 bucks.
35:45 Also check them out over at BSJ 50 bucks for the year Giardi and, uh, the door doing great
35:51 work with the Patriots getting ready for the Celtics and Bruins postseason as well.
35:55 So a lot happening, BSJ 50 bucks for the year.
35:58 All right, let's run through Giardi's mock draft before we go.
36:01 Uh, the first round, let's look at the first four picks.
36:05 He's got Caleb going to Chicago, which everybody has.
36:08 He has Drake may go into Washington, JJ McCarthy going to your new England Patriots.
36:16 And then he has Jaden Daniels going for not to Arizona, but Minnesota trading up and drafting
36:22 Daniels at four.
36:23 How are you feeling about that?
36:24 So, um, let's give a little bit of, did I put it on here?
36:31 I can't find it.
36:32 Um, oh, I, I, I did it after the fact, after I sent you, um, the thing.
36:38 So this is what Mike says.
36:40 He says the path like McCarthy.
36:41 I know this for a fact.
36:43 The question then becomes how much he is the youngest of the QBs in this draft and his,
36:48 and his tape while somewhat limited because of the type of team Michigan was is good.
36:52 He's such a loose, loose athlete and moves better than I had in my mind's eye from watching
36:57 him during the year.
36:58 Is he ready to assume the number one chair from day one?
37:01 Unlikely, but there's no rush.
37:02 His intelligence is right up there at the top of the class.
37:05 And fundamentally McCarthy has a better base than may.
37:08 I think those things are all true.
37:11 Now I don't know about the Patriots interest in JJ McCarthy.
37:17 Um, Mike obviously has very good sources.
37:19 That's why I hired him.
37:21 Um, I have not heard that.
37:24 Um, I, and quite frankly, I don't trust a lot of that stuff during this time of year.
37:30 Um, the Patriots, uh, between Gerard Mayo's talk at the, at the league meetings, when
37:37 he talked about Drake Mays floor, um, and also some of the stuff that's out there, this
37:44 could be the Patriots just trying to position somebody to, um, to come up and, and want
37:49 to offer a bag for number three to get McCarthy.
37:51 I don't know.
37:52 I don't believe any of this crap that's out there this time of year.
37:56 I just don't, you know, I've been doing this for 20 years and, and like, I've told this
38:00 story before.
38:01 Um, you know, very similar, the, the dolphins were in a very similar position.
38:07 It was after Nick Saban.
38:09 I want to say it was the first year of cam Cameron and, uh, Randy Mueller was the GM.
38:15 He now does stuff for the athletic and, um, I'm not going to say exactly who it was, but
38:21 somebody straight up lied to my face.
38:25 It told me that this was when the dolphins I think took, uh, no, it was, it was when
38:33 they took Ted Ginn.
38:35 So they, they, they told me, they said at Brady Quinn is there, we are taking Brady
38:40 Quinn.
38:41 And I had no reason to doubt this guy.
38:43 He had never lied to me.
38:45 Um, always gave me great information, take it to the bank.
38:49 And I wrote that up and they passed on Brady Quinn, which was maybe the right thing to
38:55 do.
38:56 I don't know.
38:57 But then they took Ted Ginn, the wide receiver in the middle of the first round, and they
39:01 ended up taking John Beck at quarterback, I think in the second round.
39:05 And apparently that was their plan all along.
39:08 They love back.
39:09 Uh, they wanted them back stunk in the league stunk for them.
39:14 So that's just an example of why I don't believe anything this time of year.
39:19 And I don't really go that far to try to figure that stuff out.
39:23 I'm just at the point where like they, they do this all year, like go pick your players
39:29 and then we'll go from there.
39:31 Um, so, you know, as far as, you know, McCarthy, they have Drake may going number, he has Drake
39:39 may going number two to Washington.
39:43 Uh, I don't know if that's part of the, you know, the report that's out there.
39:47 I don't know if it was Adam Kaplan or somebody reported that Jaden Daniels didn't like his
39:52 visit to Washington and hopes he ends up in new England, something along those lines.
39:56 Let me just jump in, which is just complete crap because he hasn't taken his 30 visit
40:02 yet.
40:03 He's Daniels is taking his visit was with Washington next week.
40:06 Both may and Daniels are going to Washington next week.
40:08 So that I'm not, I'm not buying that.
40:11 I'm taking that with a huge grain of salt.
40:13 I think it was Evan Silva who came out with that, that the commanders that Jaden wants
40:18 to go to new England, but again, he has not taken his top 30 visit to the commanders yet.
40:23 Um, I would be, especially in the system that Cliff Kingsbury runs, you know, with the mobile
40:30 quarterbacks and, uh, you know, he had Kyler Murray in Arizona.
40:35 Um, you know, you would think that Jaden Daniels would be a perfect fit for what Washington,
40:40 what they probably aim to do, uh, on offense.
40:43 And it would also give that offense a, that team a chance to be like a legitimate playoff
40:48 contender this year, because I think he's, you know, he's one of the more experienced
40:51 guys.
40:52 Um, I would be shocked if they go Drake may at number two, but I, you know, as far as
40:58 McCarthy and the Patriots, I have a hard time taking JJ McCarthy at number three.
41:05 Now do I think he's, if we're just going on the basis of the fact that Mack Jones was
41:10 the 15th overall pick, do I think that JJ McCarthy is a better prospect than Mack Jones
41:15 was coming out?
41:17 Yes, I think so.
41:18 He's more athletic.
41:19 Um, he's got more snap on the ball.
41:22 Um, I think that he has, um, proven himself a little bit more as far as, uh, adversity,
41:30 uh, coming through in big spots.
41:32 I think he's just a little, I think he's, he's a little bit better than Mack Jones in
41:36 just about every other area.
41:38 Now that being said, you know, when you're talking about the third overall pick in the
41:43 draft and a quarterback, I'm sorry, but I'm, I'm looking for elite traits.
41:49 And if I, if I think my coaching staff is worth a damn, and I can tell you that Elliot
41:53 Wolfe thinks the world of Alex van Pelt and Ben, Ben McAdoo, as far as the quarterback
41:58 position developing these guys, van Pelt is terrific developing quarterbacks.
42:03 Um, I think that Elliot Wolfe at the end of the day, and based off how his father viewed
42:09 the quarterback position, JJ McCarthy is the safe pick.
42:13 There's no doubt he has a higher floor than a lot of these guys, but Ron Wolfe.
42:19 You know, always swung big at the quarterback position, especially, you know, when it came
42:23 to Brett Favre and I just think that JJ McCarthy, he, he's not elite throwing.
42:29 He's not elite scrambling.
42:31 You sure his mind maybe is intangibles or elite.
42:33 We, you know, that's tough to measure.
42:35 I just don't think he has enough elite traits to be taken in the top five for me.
42:42 So like I throw a little bit of cold water on that.
42:47 I agree with everything you said.
42:49 I'm taking the higher trait guy.
42:51 I'm taking the guy with the higher ceiling, uh, you know, high floor safe pick.
42:56 We've seen that act before.
42:58 Didn't work.
42:59 I want to take the big swing.
43:01 That's what it's all about.
43:03 And I just get a kick out of people like, and everybody is, obviously you can have your
43:09 own opinion.
43:10 That's everybody has opinions.
43:11 It's all subjective.
43:12 I have an opinion.
43:13 Greg has an opinion, but let's just understand one thing.
43:16 All of these quarterbacks have flaws that there's, there's not a single quarterback
43:21 in this class that is flawless.
43:24 Every single one of them, you will have a question.
43:28 Every single one of them.
43:29 You can frame it as that's the end all be all that guy's not going to work out at the
43:33 next level because of this Caleb Williams turnover machine turnover machine tries to
43:40 do too much scrambles around like Wiley coyote trying to make a play out of nothing.
43:45 And when it happens, it works.
43:47 It's a beautiful thing.
43:48 And that's why people say he's Patrick Mahomes light because he loves to extend plays and
43:52 go bananas in the pocket and, and go schoolyard.
43:55 Look, I could sit there and say, he's pinched it to turn the football over and you know,
44:00 he tries to do too much that could ruin them in the NFL.
44:04 Bad start all of a sudden, first seven weeks, first year, he's turned the football over
44:08 a ton.
44:09 He never, he's never able to come back from that.
44:12 Every single one of these guys have a criticism.
44:15 So if you're going to not draft somebody because they have a weakness, don't draft anybody
44:19 because they all have weaknesses.
44:21 So give me the high end traits.
44:23 Tell me the positives.
44:24 What can this guy do if it falls in line, if he's coached, right?
44:27 Which leads me to this.
44:29 It's a hypothetical.
44:30 You don't have to answer it if you don't want to Greg, but in my head over the past week
44:35 or two, I've been, I've been just thinking about this hypothetical situation.
44:41 Let's say Drake may played for Jim Harbaugh.
44:44 I'm not even talking about the team.
44:45 I'm not talking about Michigan versus UNC.
44:49 Jim Harbaugh is beloved as a quarterback whisperer, a guy who develops that position, gets the
44:55 most out of that position.
44:57 We know the lineage.
44:59 If Drake may was coached by Jim Harbaugh, do you think this would even be a conversation
45:06 between McCarthy and may?
45:07 Nope.
45:08 And you're a hundred percent right to ask this question.
45:10 I completely agree with you.
45:12 I think that, um, Drake may would be a slam dunk process, the prospect possibly threatening
45:19 to be the number one overall pick if he played for a QB based sort of coach like Harbaugh.
45:26 Yeah, he played for Mack Brown and we appreciate Mack Brown, but Mack Brown's Mack Brown, little
45:31 long in the tooth and you know, a little old school.
45:35 And again, they changed systems and offensive coordinator.
45:38 So McCarthy had one guy to work with one guy to learn from the quarterback, whisperer,
45:44 Jim Harbaugh.
45:45 And so I do, I agree with Greg.
45:47 I think if, if Drake may worked with a guy like Harbaugh, man, oh man, people would be
45:53 going bananas over him even more than some are.
45:55 All right, let's get back to GRD's mock Patriots trade number 34 and one 37 along with a future
46:02 fourth to move up into the late first to number 27 owned by the Arizona Cardinals.
46:09 I'd imagine this is part of GRD's thought is get ahead of Buffalo.
46:13 Who's picking 28th now without Stefan Diggs and GRD selects a D Mitchell.
46:19 Um, I think, uh, I think you're probably excited about this cause we've started talking about
46:25 a G Mitchell, a D Mitchell.
46:27 You love them.
46:28 I, I will look at the quarterbacks, uh, the wide receivers next week.
46:32 Um, I, as people know who listened to this pod, I got a bad taste in my mouth from Mitchell
46:37 at the combine workout.
46:38 Um, I did not think he looks very good at all.
46:41 And I was like, who the hell is this guy?
46:43 He's a bum.
46:44 Um, but that's just one view.
46:47 Uh, so I will take another look, um, because obviously, you know, people that I respect
46:51 like you and GRD really liked this guy.
46:53 So, uh, there's gotta be something there.
46:56 But the thought of, uh, I, I love the thought of trading back up into the first round to
47:02 get either a wide receiver or a tackle.
47:04 Now in his mock draft, Tyler Guyton from Oklahoma goes 22nd to green Bay in a trade up.
47:12 Um, if they trade up, uh, Kingsley, Sue Mattia, the tackle from BYU, what'd you say?
47:21 Sue Mattia, um, goes 30th to Baltimore.
47:26 So he would be on the board.
47:28 Uh, I'm fine with either whoever they have rated higher wide receiver or tackle.
47:33 I'm fine.
47:34 I love the idea of trading back into the first round and taking one of those guys.
47:39 So, um, whichever position I'm fine with it.
47:43 I love the trading up, getting a guy.
47:46 And cause this is, this has been my whole thing about this off season and people, you
47:50 know, throwing temper tantrums about the Patriots, not doing X, Y, and Z and all this stuff.
47:54 Like they have the potential to come out of this draft with a quarterback, uh, an offensive
48:00 tackle and a wide receiver who can all start right away or play early and be impactful
48:07 and, and start the process of all of a sudden, you know, all of a sudden you're looking at
48:13 the Patriots and you're saying like, all right, between, you know, we have the, the, we have
48:18 the rookie quarterback, rookie tackle and a rookie wide receiver.
48:21 They're going to grow up together.
48:23 Look at what they did in year one, how the Patriots went from four wins to seven wins.
48:27 Like I'm excited to me, that's a path forward.
48:29 And it's the ideal path forward for this team.
48:33 And I think it's what they have to do.
48:36 They just got to hit on the picks, right?
48:38 Yep.
48:39 There's no doubt that if you, if you hit on Drake may, then you trade back into the first
48:43 round and you hit on an 80 Mitchell.
48:44 If that's the pick like she already has.
48:47 And then GRD has them moving up again in the third round, trading 68 and one Oh three for
48:52 56 and one 74 and drafting Patrick Paul, the tackle out of Houston.
48:57 So if you hit on may, if you hit on, well, GRD had McCarthy.
49:01 If you hit on McCarthy, Mitchell and Paul, then what you just said is 100% right, Greg.
49:07 But of course there's risk.
49:09 There's risk with everything.
49:10 If you miss on one of those, two of those, or God forbid all three of them, then you're
49:14 royally screwed.
49:15 Yeah.
49:16 And, and, but I do think I, and I liked the Patrick Paul pick.
49:19 I think he's a good prospect.
49:21 He's probably more of a guy you stick at right tackle year one and see where he goes from
49:25 there.
49:26 He does have the potential to play left tackle down the line.
49:29 We saw him at the senior bowl.
49:31 I liked what I saw, but I do think this path of sticking at three and trading up into the
49:38 four trading up twice to get the wide receiver and tackle that you want.
49:42 I could very much see this playing out on draft day for the Patriots.
49:46 I think it's the game plan that Elliot Wolf has going into this draft.
49:51 And if I was a Patriots fan, I would be pretty happy about it.
49:58 It will be an interesting night.
50:00 We're just about two weeks away.
50:02 Everybody has been anticipating this.
50:03 The more rumors are going to be thrown around as we know, a bunch of smoke screens.
50:07 I can't wait for that.
50:09 I can't wait for that night.
50:10 I can't wait for that weekend to see what Elliot Wolf and company does.
50:13 First draft without Bill Belichick and forever.
50:15 It's going to be a fascinating watch, even just to see who's in the war room.
50:19 Is there 10 guys or 15 guys or five guys who's in that war room?
50:22 What are the interactions like?
50:24 How aggressive is Elliot?
50:26 And I said this today, Greg, just in closing, I said this on my podcast earlier today.
50:32 Like if, if, if you are Elliot Wolf, there's a lot of talk, including you, you've mentioned
50:36 trading for a veteran wide receiver.
50:38 And when I hear you say that, and Tom Curren say that, and Chad Graff say that, and Adam
50:42 Kaplan say that, I don't know.
50:45 I just feel like somebody is talking and that, and that there's a feel that that's going
50:50 to happen at some point, whether it's during the draft or after the draft.
50:53 I don't want them to do anything with 34 until the night of the draft.
50:57 Let the draft board play out.
50:59 You don't know what's going to happen.
51:02 Like all of these mock drafts are just mock drafts.
51:06 They're always wrong.
51:07 We have no clue.
51:09 What if a Marius Mims falls to the twenties?
51:12 Right.
51:13 You just don't know.
51:14 So if I'm Elliot Wolf, I have all the scenarios laid out.
51:18 I go into night one saying, okay, let's see what happens because 34 is valuable.
51:25 It might even be more valuable by the time we get through pick 18 or 20.
51:30 So just let things unfold.
51:32 And I think that's what we should expect from Elliot to let things unfold, see who actually
51:37 gets drafted where, and then take advantage of it.
51:40 You agree, Greg?
51:41 Totally agree.
51:42 Yep.
51:43 All right.
51:44 He's Greg Bedard.
51:45 I am Nick Cattles.
51:46 I love ending with Greg saying he agrees with me.
51:48 It's one of my favorite things in the world.
51:50 We'll talk to you next time.
51:51 [Music]