IHSG Sentuh Level Terendah Mei, Bagaimana Peluang Juni
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (03/06/2024) dengan Tema IHSG Sentuh Level Terendah Mei, Bagaimana Peluang Juni?".
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00 And the next is some global economic agendas this early week.
00:05 Among them, there are holidays from Malaysia and Thailand.
00:12 Then from Indonesia, there is the release of inflation data in May.
00:18 And there is also the index of the exchange manager or PMI Nikkei Indonesia.
00:22 From South Korea, the index of the exchange manager PMI manufacturer Nikkei South Korea.
00:28 And from Japan, the release of the index of the exchange manager or PMI manufacturer Japan in May.
00:33 Then from the United States, the index of the exchange manager or PMI manufacturer in May.
00:38 And the index of the exchange manager ISM.
00:42 Then from Europe, the index of the exchange manager or PMI manufacturer in May.
00:48 And from the UK, the index of the exchange manager or PMI manufacturer also in May.
00:54 Next, we see the agenda of the ME10. There is the ROPS from WINA.
01:00 Then FWCT, TOTO, BPII, NTBK, MTDL, VKTR, LINK.
01:07 And from Maha, there is the payment of cash dividends.
01:10 And some other agendas are the DPS cash dividends and KUM cash dividends.
01:15 As you can see on the screen, there are cash dividends from ISAT and others.
01:22 There are quite a lot of ME10 agendas at the beginning of this week.
01:26 And an update from the Asian exchange, you can see the data on the screen of the exchange manager.
01:30 We see how the response from the Japanese exchange,
01:35 then the other exchange managers who seem to be compactly moving in the negative territory.
01:42 At the opening at the beginning of this week.
01:46 We correct the exchange manager, the opening of the Asian exchange this morning,
01:50 everyone is moving in the positive territory.
01:53 Again, all the cash dividends are moving in the positive territory.
01:56 With a strength of 1.18%, then Singapore cash dividends increased by 0.23%,
02:08 Korean KOSPI increased by 1.84%, and Hong Kong Hang Seng increased by 1.38%.
02:15 So, the three main indexes are Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong Hang Seng.
02:21 The increase is not more than 1%, except for Singapore's rate time which is 0.23%.
02:29 To discuss about the opportunity of the SMA, the opportunity of the capital market investment,
02:36 to start this June, what is it like? Remembering that last weekend, the SMA index touched the lowest level in May.
02:45 We are in contact with Mr. Ezari Doibnutama, Head of Technical Analysis, Henan Putirai Security.
02:51 Good morning, Mr. Eza.
02:53 Good morning.
02:54 Thank you for joining us this morning.
02:56 How is the momentum to enter June? Will it be more positive or how?
03:01 Remembering that last weekend, the SMA index touched the lowest level in May.
03:08 Even if I'm not mistaken, it was the lowest in the last three months.
03:10 That's true.
03:13 But even though the SMA broke out of our support in 6984,
03:24 we are still hopeful that the SMA will still be in the sideways trend at this time.
03:33 And if we look at the major sideways trend,
03:39 maybe from the beginning, sorry, at the end of November last year,
03:47 the SMA was in the trend range.
03:53 The trend range was around 6,920 to 7,380.
04:04 6,920 to 7,380.
04:09 7,380. That's the range for the SMA index.
04:14 The momentum is still in the same range at that time, right?
04:18 That's right.
04:20 Okay, what is the main reason?
04:23 If we look at the US stock exchange,
04:25 throughout May, it experienced an increase of 4% for S&P 500.
04:34 For example, it rose 4.8%, Nasdaq rose 6.9%, Dow Jones rose 2.4%,
04:41 Dow Jones even rose to the highest level of 40,000 throughout the period.
04:45 Nasdaq also rose.
04:48 But the S&P 500 index in May actually experienced a correction of 2.5%
04:53 in contrast to the US stock exchange.
04:55 How do you translate this?
04:58 We have to see, these are two separate entities too.
05:05 If we look at it from one side,
05:09 the currency of the rupee is getting lower in the second semester.
05:17 It experienced a depreciation.
05:21 If we look at the majority impact for this correction,
05:29 which was just this week, it was because of the brand.
05:32 Because the brand's market cap is quite significant for the US stock exchange.
05:38 And if we look at it, after the suspension has been lifted,
05:45 the brand has entered the focal auction.
05:49 This is one of the triggers for investors to throw away many brands.
06:01 And this has very bearish implications for the US stock exchange.
06:06 Because of the factor of the brand's emission, which entered the monitoring,
06:11 after it was reopened, the auto-reject sum was low,
06:15 even almost 10% in the last two days.
06:18 10% in one day, and then the next two days almost 10% again.
06:23 So that's what makes the S&P 500 index also not neglected.
06:27 It must have dropped quite deep because this brand's market cap is very high.
06:31 The highest, surpassing the BCA in the Indonesian stock exchange.
06:35 If so, do you see what the opportunity will be?
06:39 In the US stock exchange, it is driven by the sentiment of the technology sector.
06:44 Then there is also an opportunity, optimism,
06:48 the opportunity for the decline of the DeFed's share price in September,
06:51 considering the data from the inflation, which turned out to be a bit weak.
06:57 So the hope is that DeFed will again reduce the share price in September,
07:01 and also appear again in December.
07:03 But why does it look like it doesn't really affect the sentiment in the Indonesian stock exchange itself,
07:09 which is mostly affected, apart from the brand, the tendency is net sales in May.
07:14 So if we look at it from the microeconomic side of Indonesia,
07:23 it seems like we don't follow the DeFed policy.
07:29 It seems like the Bank of Indonesia will look at the situation in our country,
07:36 and also look at the conditions to give policies,
07:44 whether they are hawkish or dovish.
07:46 Although it is unlikely, but if the Fed lowers their bond in the next FOMC meeting,
07:59 the possibility of the Bank of Indonesia still holding at the current level of 6.25%.
08:08 So you see that overall, the global sentiment of indifference, especially about DeFed,
08:16 is no longer the main thing or the main sentiment for the Indonesian market at the moment,
08:21 more to the domestic itself.
08:23 Correct. And the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank also gave recommendations
08:31 for each central bank in each country to focus on the macroeconomic conditions in each country.
08:41 It must be adjusted.
08:44 Okay. With this condition, how about the opportunity in June?
08:50 Should we break the level you gave earlier, at 7.380,
08:54 then we can say that the opportunity is strong, as long as it is still ranging, it will stay back at 6.920,
09:02 the range up to 7.380?
09:04 If it hasn't broken down to the support I mentioned earlier, 6.920,
09:15 the ISG is still attractive.
09:19 If the ISG continues to be downtrending at the moment,
09:24 there is a possibility that there is no confidence in retail, between retail and institutions.
09:31 We also have to look at it, not from the macroeconomic situation,
09:36 even our microeconomy and global economy,
09:41 but we have to see if the retail investor has confidence in the system in our stock market.
09:51 Because there are many negative sentiments related to full call auction
09:56 that demoralize many retail investors in the country.
10:01 Okay, so the sentiment of call auction also affects your confidence.
10:10 From the retail investor.
10:13 Correct. So if we look at it, there is a lot of coverage and also a lot of petitions for Bursa Effect
10:24 to reform the local auction system at the moment.
10:31 Because there is a random closing,
10:34 and also the bid and offer is closed, which can make it more difficult.
10:44 How far do you think this will give a bad sentiment?
10:49 Because there are also many traders who respond negatively to this call auction.
10:54 Correct. So there are many negative sentiments and not too much transparency.
11:02 From many foreign investors and local investors that we meet.
11:11 Okay, what do you think the impact of the call auction will be?
11:16 So the call auction, as we can see, is just with the brand.
11:23 Brands with a large market cap can enter the full call auction system.
11:27 And this is a big influence on brands with large market cap.
11:36 Will Aman also enter?
11:38 Because Aman also has a significant weighting.
11:43 And this is one of the concerns for investors and also the MET itself.
11:51 If outside their forces, they have no control over it.
11:58 Okay, but this has been done, so what is the strategy?
12:02 Especially for retail investors.
12:04 We will review it later, we have to be a data first, my dear.
12:07 Stay with us.
12:09 [Music]
12:11 [BLANK_AUDIO]