Analisa IHSG Usai Ditutup di Atas Level 6.900
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (27/06/2024) dengan Tema Analisa IHSG Usai Ditutup di Atas Level 6.900".
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00:00In MarketBuzz, this time Mr. Mirza has joined through video conference, there is Mr. Emil Vajirisky, an analyst from StockNow.
00:06Mr. Emil, good morning.
00:08Good morning, Mrs. Frisa.
00:10Thank you for joining this morning, Mr. Emil.
00:12Yesterday, there was a fresh wind when the price index combined broke above 6,900 again,
00:18although it seems that the pattern is still sideways.
00:21But what is your analysis in the middle of the strengthening of IHSG but still joined by foreign net sales in the regular market?
00:29Okay, good, Mrs. Frisa.
00:30Actually, there are a few things that I am concerned about.
00:33Why is it that when IHSG experienced a sideways trend,
00:38however, in the past few days, it has experienced a slight uptrend in terms of its small trend.
00:44But in the past three days, IHSG tends to rise in sales.
00:49There are a few things that I am concerned about.
00:50The first is about the How is the Fed?
00:54This causes an increase in the yield of the United States,
00:58which also puts pressure on emerging markets.
01:02One of the emerging markets is Indonesia.
01:05Next, this is about the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East,
01:10and also about the currency, which we are still depreciating.
01:14This is also one of the factors why foreign net sales are still in the regular Indonesian market.
01:20Next, this is also about the release of domestic economic data.
01:23This affects the sentiment of the market,
01:25such as the RE transaction transaction deficit experienced an increase.
01:29Mrs. Frisa, from USD 1.1 billion to USD 2.2 billion.
01:35Actually, that's what I was talking about earlier.
01:37There are a few things that I am concerned about.
01:39Why is it that in the past few days, IHSG has risen or broken above 6,900,
01:46but foreign net sales are still in the regular Indonesian market?
01:48Okay. In the last month, foreign net sales were 10.51 trillion rupiah in the regular Indonesian market.
01:53If we look at the all market, it actually recorded 2.14 trillion rupiah.
01:59What is your take on the figure in the regular Indonesian market,
02:02which reached 10.51 trillion rupiah,
02:04and the figure in the last month also said that we should not focus too much on foreign transactions.
02:10What is your take on this, Mr. Emil?
02:13Yes, that's right.
02:15We should not focus too much on foreign transactions,
02:22because the global economic conditions are not stable.
02:28So, the foreign investors also see the geopolitical conflict.
02:36Of course, foreign investors also panic selling.
02:40Automatically, foreign investors will take a conservative step
02:48to move to more secure countries.
02:55Okay. Let's talk about the Asian currency, which is also quite high compared to the U.S. dollar,
03:00especially the yen.
03:01The Japanese yen is even at the lowest level of 38 years.
03:03There is also rupiah at the lowest level of 4 years.
03:06What is your take on this rupiah and its impact on our currency market?
03:12Because the weakening in the 1,400 level has been going on for several weeks.
03:20Okay.
03:21I see that the fall of the Asian currency, including rupiah,
03:25is also one of the things that needs serious attention.
03:29Because the weakening of rupiah or weakness in the Asian currency
03:33is also caused by several factors.
03:35First, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar index
03:38is caused by the expectation of a rise in the Federal Reserve.
03:42Where the U.S. economic data, such as the purchase manager index and high consumer confidence,
03:47also cause concern that the Fed may break the higher and longer-than-expected flow.
03:56This causes capital to flow out of the developing countries to assets using the U.S. dollar.
04:03This also puts pressure on the value of the Asian currency, including rupiah.
04:08Then there is also concern about the potential trade war between China and Western countries,
04:14especially after Beijing indicated the possibility of a response to the European tariff for electric vehicles.
04:22This tension also puts pressure and adds uncertainty
04:28that has a negative impact on investors' sentiment towards the Asian currency.
04:33Next, if we look at it internally,
04:36regarding the flower rate, the FED maintains a flower rate of 6.25.
04:43What is the purpose of the FED to maintain the flower rate for rupiah in the safe zone?
04:48As we know, rupiah is now maintained above the 16,000 zone.
04:54What is my concern?
04:56If rupiah continues to depreciate,
04:59there is a potential that the FED will increase the flower rate
05:05so that rupiah is in the safe zone.
05:10My concern is that when the sentiment is not reduced,
05:15there is a possibility that rupiah can still run above 16,500.
05:21There is still a potential of 16,500 projection against the value of the rupiah exchange if it continues to experience a decrease.
05:29Yes, that's right.
05:30Maybe the crucial thing is more to September.
05:33Most of the projections from market players,
05:38with various surveys,
05:40say that the FED will cut the flower rate in September.
05:44But some say in December because there is only one possibility.
05:47It means that there is a possibility that in the midst of this uncertainty,
05:51ASEAN will continue to do net sales,
05:53switching to assets that are more profitable to the dollar,
05:56so that rupiah still has a chance to 16,500.
05:59That's right.
06:00Okay, we will continue your recommendation later.
06:02If so, how do you plan to stay with us in the market bus segment?
06:07Thank you, Mr. Mirza.
06:08You are still with us in the market bus segment.
06:10We will continue to discuss with Mr. Emil.
06:13Mr. Emil, if we talk about the value of rupiah exchange,
06:17you said there is a connection with the opportunity to cut the flower rate of the FED.
06:21And the FED is also waiting for the inflation data
06:24or the index of the private consumption export price of the United States at the end of this week.
06:30This is a rejection of the FED's monetary policy,
06:35or the flower rate.
06:36What will be the potential of the domestic market at the beginning of next week?
06:40Because maybe it will only be reflected next week.
06:46Yes, as we know,
06:48as Ms. Prisa said earlier,
06:50the release of the private consumption export price index data
06:53is one of the main indicators used by the Federal Reserve
06:57in determining the flower rate policy.
07:00We are waiting for this data this week.
07:03If the private consumption export price index data
07:07shows higher inflation than expected,
07:10this can strengthen the view that the FED will maintain a higher and longer flower rate
07:17or even increase the flower rate further.
07:19This is the first scenario.
07:20In this case, when the flower rate,
07:24I mean, when the inflation shows higher,
07:27then the domestic market may be stressed
07:30because of higher lending costs
07:33and can slow down the company's economic and profitability growth.
07:36That's the first impact.
07:37When this PCE data shows higher inflation,
07:41it will automatically pressure the related emitters.
07:45It will be stressed because of lending costs.
07:47The second scenario is,
07:49if this PCE data shows lower inflation than expected,
07:53this can increase the hope that the FED will consider a faster flower rate decrease.
07:59In this case, this is a positive sentiment for the domestic market
08:04because lower flower rates can boost economic growth
08:08through increasing investment and consumption.
08:10But overall, the domestic sum fluctuation in the next few days
08:15may be boosted by the PCE data results and investors' interpretation
08:20of the implications of the FED's monetary policy.
08:23Okay.
08:24So, there are two scenarios.
08:25Either the inflation rate tends to increase again
08:29or, as expected, it tends to decrease.
08:33That's right.
08:34Usually, there is also a more stagnant situation.
08:36That means the market will still be like this if it is stagnant.
08:40Is there an investment strategy from Stock Now
08:44for the market players in the middle of mixed sentiment?
08:52The three recommendations are the same.
08:54Okay.
08:55Let's talk about the investment strategy first.
08:57Is it better for us to trade buy first
09:00or buy investment?
09:02Or what is the strategy?
09:04Okay.
09:05For the current investment strategy,
09:08as investors or market players,
09:12it is better to be more concerned about sentiment.
09:17Whether it is global sentiment,
09:19we really need to monitor global sentiment
09:22especially the sentiment in the US.
09:26Because the US has become a pre-economy
09:29that has been rejected by various countries,
09:33we have to be more concerned about that sentiment.
09:35And don't forget about the internal sentiment or the emittance.
09:39Because in the current situation,
09:42we need to monitor the sentiment
09:46because it will determine the direction of the next share price movement.
09:52Okay.
09:53Which sentiment do you monitor the most from Stock Now?
09:56Which sentiment do you see as the main focus right now?
10:02As we have discussed,
10:04one of the most anticipated sentiment this weekend
10:08is about the release of private consumption emittance index data.
10:13So, it is more than external?
10:15Yes, it is more than external.
10:17Because as I have said,
10:20the US has become a pre-economy country.
10:24Okay.
10:25How about Bursa Efek Indonesia
10:27that prepares its members to apply for licenses
10:29to provide short selling?
10:31The brokers will have to apply for licenses
10:33before they can do the short selling transaction.
10:35Are there any concerns from Stock Now
10:37about the short selling scheme
10:39that is planned to be implemented in October?
10:42Yes.
10:43That's right, Mrs. Prisah.
10:45Actually, when we hear the word short selling,
10:47maybe some of the people who are still new
10:50may think that short selling has a negative connotation.
10:54Actually, I first saw my response to this short selling
10:57that there is actually a positive indication
11:01about short selling for transactions in the Indonesian market.
11:06First, it has increased liquidity.
11:08As we know, the transactions in ESG
11:11in the last few months have been very quiet.
11:14On average, it is below 10T.
11:19With this short selling,
11:20the expectation is to increase liquidity
11:23and increase the frequency of transactions in the Indonesian market.
11:30However, actually what concerns me about short selling
11:34is first, the risk of volatility.
11:36When we talk about liquidity,
11:44it will automatically increase the risk of volatility.
11:46Short selling can increase volatility.
11:49This BI must ensure that risk mitigation steps
11:53such as the intraday concept of short selling
11:55must be implemented well
11:57to reduce the potential of unnecessary volatility.
12:00Second, my concept is risk management and failure to pay.
12:04This failure to pay risk is one of the main concerns
12:07in the practice of short selling, Mrs. Prisah.
12:09So, this BI must ensure that the stockholders
12:13who apply for a license have a strong risk management system
12:16and are ready to face the fluctuation of the extreme share price.
12:19Lastly, education and awareness of investors.
12:23Our level of investment literacy
12:25still says that the automatic power of this BI
12:29must increase education and awareness of investors
12:32because it is only investors who fully understand
12:34the mechanisms and risks of short selling.
12:38Overall, in my opinion,
12:40short selling is an initiative
12:43that can enrich the dynamics of Indonesia, Mrs. Prisah.
12:46However, this close attention
12:48such as risk management, education,
12:51and infrastructure preparation must be re-observed.
12:53Okay.
12:54Is there any tips from Mr. Emil
12:55related to the preparation of this short selling?
12:57Maybe the tips to avoid omitting anything
13:01or how, Mr. Emil?
13:02Is there anything like that?
13:04Actually, if we look at the strategy
13:09for this short selling
13:11that I mentioned earlier,
13:13maybe we have to be more concerned
13:16about understanding what this short selling is like
13:20and also the emittance.
13:22Is this emittance good for short selling?
13:26We also have to pay attention to the risk of volatility.
13:30So, we have to talk about it one by one, right?
13:32Yes, that's right.
13:33And understand it also related to the rules
13:36in this short selling policy, right?
13:39Yes, that's right, Mrs. Prisah.
13:40Okay, Mr. Emil.
13:41Recommendations and choices of sellers
13:43will be presented based on the data we received from Stocknow.
13:46There are three emittances that are recommended.
13:48And this is also waiting for the opening update.
13:50The first session is at 9 o'clock.
13:52Sellers will be here in about one minute.
13:54Stay with us in the MarketBus segment.