Pergerakan IHSG Jelang Putusan The Fed
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (06/06/2024) dengan Tema Pergerakan IHSG Jelang Putusan The Fed".
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00:00 We have a few important economic agendas that should be considered,
00:05 such as the US trade embargo,
00:09 the continued employment claim from Canada,
00:12 the European Union trade embargo,
00:14 the ECB monetary policy statement,
00:16 and other global economic agendas,
00:21 including the Japanese government's,
00:24 the Bank of Japan's,
00:28 and the Naka Mura's.
00:30 Then we move to the EMITEN agenda.
00:34 There are quite a lot of agendas.
00:37 This time, there is the General Meeting of the ASRI Financial Services,
00:40 the General Meeting of the AFMN Financial Services,
00:42 and a few other financial services,
00:44 such as the Telecom, Cash Dividend Payment,
00:48 those are the agendas for today.
00:53 And we will continue to see the updates from the Asia-Pacific Exchange this morning.
00:57 Yesterday, the ASRI was 2%,
00:59 Asia could be a good example for the opening of the trading market.
01:03 There is the Japanese IKEA, which has risen above 1%,
01:06 then the South Korean KOSPI has risen above 1%,
01:10 Singapore's SRETIME has risen 0.34%,
01:12 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is still under pressure,
01:15 but it is still 0.1%.
01:17 And we will also show you the viewers,
01:21 the moving graph of the index of joint stock prices in trading yesterday.
01:27 [The moving graph of the index of joint stock prices in trading yesterday]
01:30 This is the moving graph of the IASG,
01:32 which was opened in 1999,
01:34 and it has been weakening until it reached its lowest point in 1994,
01:39 before it was closed in 1947.
01:42 But it fell quite deep,
01:45 2% more,
01:46 with the net sale in the regular market of 82.66 billion rupiah in a day.
01:52 There are also sentiments that are assessed to be negative movements
01:56 from the Indonesian stock market in trading yesterday,
01:59 there is a brand share that has re-auto-rejected below 10%,
02:02 as it is expected to enter the FTSE index.
02:06 Then the US dollar strength, which is now almost at 16,300.
02:11 The third is the price of commodities such as oil and coal.
02:15 And negative sentiments from the emitting individuals,
02:18 such as the quarterly 1, which has been in the same period since the 2023 market,
02:24 has become a loss.
02:25 And also other sentiments from the emitting individuals,
02:28 as well as hopes and fears about the defective relationship
02:30 after the economic data is leaked.
02:32 [The negative sentiment of the emitting individuals]
02:36 We will consider the opportunities and challenges in the current capital market,
02:40 what is actually interesting,
02:42 together with Mr. Bernhardur Setia Anandawijaya,
02:45 CEO of Sukor Securities.
02:48 Good morning, how are you?
02:49 Good morning, amazing.
02:51 Thank you for joining, it's amazing for our news.
02:54 But the market news seems to be amazing too,
02:57 amazing in the sense of the discount.
02:59 Of course, this is an interesting opportunity for investors to start accumulating.
03:02 Okay, right away, right away, below this line, this is an opportunity.
03:05 Yes, of course.
03:06 Bigger opportunity than challenge?
03:08 Yes, we can start from both sides.
03:10 Of course, because for investors who have taken a position first in the stock market,
03:14 in this rather fluctuating market condition,
03:17 of course, this becomes a challenge in itself.
03:20 Because this condition is a condition where there is very little positive sentiment in the market.
03:26 Of course, we are still waiting for how the defect will reduce the flow of flowers,
03:30 because until now there is no sign that the defect will reduce the flow of flowers very soon,
03:35 the fastest in the fourth quarter of 2024.
03:38 And of course, we also see various negative sentiments
03:41 hitting our global business,
03:44 starting from Israel and Palestine, which are hot,
03:47 then the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, which is not a low-key visit.
03:51 Of course, this results in the global economic condition,
03:55 which in any political level is not good.
03:58 And of course, from Indonesia itself,
04:00 we are currently heading towards a political transition.
04:03 From the previous government, Mr. Jokowi,
04:05 which will be replaced by Mr. Prabowo in October.
04:09 This change will be awaited by the investors,
04:12 so that the current condition is still minimal positive sentiment,
04:15 still wet and sea, so that our company's condition is still moving around.
04:20 Okay, fluctuating around.
04:23 And this is already, you can say, the deepest since early May,
04:28 which is related to the sell in May.
04:31 If it's about the flower breed,
04:33 more people are hoping for it,
04:35 the possibility is in September.
04:38 Well, this is only in June, there is still July,
04:41 there is still August, and it's not certain yet in September.
04:44 So the market has a chance to continue fluctuating,
04:46 until it is certain in September.
04:48 Yes, of course.
04:50 And especially now, other instruments,
04:52 such as gold, continue to set an all-time high record.
04:55 Then the yield obligation of Indonesia,
04:58 which once touched above 7%.
05:01 So that investment is not only in the rice,
05:04 but also in other safer instruments,
05:08 which currently offer a fairly high yield.
05:11 With lower risk.
05:12 Obligations in gold or in time deposits.
05:15 So the tendency of investors now to enter the stock market,
05:19 is wet and sea and cautious.
05:21 So for investors who want to invest in the stock market,
05:25 of course, this needs to be examined more deeply,
05:29 how the market condition is.
05:31 Even for big caps, the main index driver,
05:34 this is a good opportunity for us to choose
05:37 what stocks are discounted quite significantly,
05:40 for us to enter gradually.
05:42 Especially good fundamental stocks,
05:45 which in the long run have good opportunities.
05:48 For example, the big four stocks,
05:50 such as Astra, Telecom, which is a dividend-binding routine,
05:54 and also other stocks that we will discuss later.
05:56 Blue chips, right?
05:57 Okay, Mr. Bernard, but if you look at the conditions
06:00 of our stock market, you said earlier that it was still fluctuating,
06:03 then there are still many negative sentiments
06:06 more dominant than positive.
06:08 If we want to sell, buy,
06:11 it means we don't know how much the bottom is actually in position.
06:15 Maybe from your technical and fundamental analysis,
06:18 after the IHSG, it's back and forth, 7,000,
06:21 below 7,000, up again, just like that.
06:24 Is there a possibility that you will not test a lower support
06:27 and the concern is that if we enter now,
06:30 it turns out that it hasn't bottomed yet?
06:32 Actually, it depends on each investor's strategy.
06:35 For traders, of course, the condition is short-term,
06:40 it's best not to be full power when trading.
06:44 Because the market condition is not fluctuating,
06:46 we better use our plurals only 1.4 to 1.5
06:50 to do trading.
06:51 But for investors who do the strategy of dollar cost averaging,
06:55 this is a very good momentum.
06:57 Of course, Indonesia's future economic growth
07:00 will be supported by banks.
07:02 And this has been proven from year to year
07:04 that the EPS of the bank sector continues to increase
07:06 because it is the source of economic growth in Indonesia.
07:09 So I quite trust this bank sector.
07:11 Then for some stocks like Astra and Telkom,
07:15 although of course for Telkom,
07:18 there is a starling that will enter Indonesia,
07:20 but I believe Telkom will still be a pillar
07:25 of telecommunications growth in Indonesia.
07:28 And Astra International will still be the largest holding company in Indonesia
07:32 in automotive and mining sectors, etc.
07:36 So the theme now is to go back to blue chips?
07:40 My theme is to go back to blue chips
07:42 because at the moment, blue chips that are big for banks
07:45 and also Astra and Telkom are quite deep.
07:48 Why can our index be raised?
07:50 Because there are two anomaly stocks, namely Brand and TPIA,
07:54 whose price-to-book value is already very high.
07:57 - Overcoming BCA. - Overcoming BCA.
07:59 Price-to-book value for Brand is above 100x.
08:02 For Aman, it's above 10x.
08:04 Raising our IHSK is making IHSK sustainable
08:07 in the area of 6,900 and above.
08:10 If there are no two of these stocks,
08:12 we can make sure that IHSK can be at 65.
08:15 But there is a full call action policy
08:18 that has affected Brand.
08:21 Brand is afraid of investors.
08:24 "No, no, AMMN will do the same, or Samsung will do the same."
08:28 That makes you not sure.
08:31 At this time, what do you think of the market?
08:35 If IHSK is too big and does net sales,
08:38 Samsung and Blue Chips will also be affected.
08:41 What should we do to be confident?
08:45 The full call action policy issued by the stock exchange
08:48 a few days ago is a new policy issued by the Indonesian Stock Exchange.
08:53 So, investors still adjust to the new policy issued by the stock exchange.
08:59 The policy issued by the Indonesian Stock Exchange
09:02 is to protect investors from anomalous or unusual stocks.
09:07 So, there is a special monitoring board.
09:10 For example, Brand, which has experienced significant growth from IPO,
09:15 even more than 100% valuation.
09:17 And various other stocks that have anomalous movements.
09:20 So, the stock exchange does a special monitoring,
09:24 which is included in the FCA board.
09:26 Of course, this is a double-edged sword.
09:28 On the other hand, for investors who are more on the logistical side than emotional,
09:34 they will see from the valuation side first,
09:38 before entering the stock market.
09:40 But for investors who tend to buy stocks based on euphoria,
09:45 this is often the case with the FCA policy.
09:50 So, we need to be careful about the FCA policy,
09:53 and we need to evaluate it more thoroughly before entering a stock market.
09:57 That's what I want to pay attention to.
09:59 Then, the impact of this brand on IHSK.
10:02 Of course, if this brand experiences another auto-rejection,
10:06 because of the FCA,
10:08 it will have an impact on IHSK.
10:10 Currently, this brand is in the top 5 of Indonesia's largest market cap.
10:14 It was even in the top 1 before it experienced FCA and ARP in a blunt way.
10:19 For IHSK today, we need to pay attention to the first strong support area, which is 6944.
10:26 6944. I think it was tested yesterday.
10:30 It was tested twice and failed.
10:32 It was tested twice and failed.
10:34 It will be tested again today.
10:36 But if it passes, pay attention to 6879.
10:41 6879.
10:44 If you want to go to 6879, it's still in the ranging stage.
10:48 It's a one-way street.
10:49 If it's already at 6879, what's the downtrend?
10:51 After 6879, there's a downtrend.
10:55 We've already broken down the support.
10:57 Is there a possibility to go there?
10:58 Because the Full Call Auction has already been implemented.
11:03 I'm afraid that the big market cap will be affected by the Full Call Auction.
11:07 There's TPI, there's a chance for AMM.
11:11 It doesn't seem like it's possible for IHSK to go to 6879.
11:16 We want to tell all the market actors to be more careful in this market condition.
11:24 Or maybe the authorities can be given more policies regarding FCA.
11:29 So you agree that there should be an investigation?
11:32 We need to investigate further.
11:34 Even though we want to protect investors from Samsung,
11:38 who have a high valuation,
11:40 we also need to limit the market.
11:47 Or maybe an evaluation.
11:49 Yes, an evaluation.
11:50 So that it doesn't affect the market movement and become more volatile.
11:54 Or experience turbulence.
11:56 Experience turbulence.
11:58 Speaking of brands, which is a hot topic right now,
12:04 do you think it's normal for the brand to be so strong?
12:11 I'm afraid that there will be a euphoria.
12:13 The ARB is down 10%.
12:15 It's already cheap, when will this ARB be back?
12:20 As I said, the valuation is already quite high.
12:23 What does that mean?
12:25 The valuation is already over 100%.
12:28 What about the average?
12:30 For the energy sector, we can see that the PGO is 1.5 times higher than the PPV.
12:38 What about the brand?
12:40 For the current price, the valuation is 132 times higher than the price to book value.
12:45 That's why it's called a fight.
12:47 That's why the FCA is very accurate in terms of
12:51 saving investors from stocks that have a high valuation
12:56 and don't pay attention to rationality when making stock investments.
13:01 They only pay attention to the current price.
13:03 But maybe what needs to be studied is whether the steps are correct or not.
13:09 Is the impact good or not for our market?
13:12 Because this policy has caused this brand to fail to enter the Fuji market.
13:18 And it makes investors a little disappointed with the ARB again.
13:22 The IASG fell again.
13:24 Okay, further evaluation and research.
13:26 Is this penetration correct or not?
13:29 That's what is expected right now.
13:32 We will continue later.
13:34 So, what do you recommend to Samsung?
13:37 Mr. Bernard, let's pause for a moment.
13:39 Update on the opening of the POMIERSA trade and also recommendations for the choice we present after the break.
13:44 Stay with us in the Market Pass segment.
13:47 Thank you, POMIERSA, for joining us again in the Market Pass segment.
13:51 We present the opening information of the first trading session on Thursday.
13:55 POMIERSA responded to the closing of Wall Street, which is also in a good mood.
13:59 Europe is in a good mood.
14:00 Asia was also in a good mood.
14:02 POMIERSA IASG, of course, turned around and became positive too.
14:06 It rose by about 0.8 percent or 57 points.
14:10 Back to the 7,000 position.
14:14 Although POMIERSA is still in a good mood, from 6,999 to 7,001.
14:19 It is still trying to stay in the 7,000 position.
14:22 It is strong right now for the index of joint stock prices.
14:24 With the exchange rate of the US dollar still weakening, 16,279 is getting closer to 16,300.
14:32 The stock that is gaining based on value, POMIERSA is one of them, is SURI or MAJA AGUNG, which is 6% stronger.
14:40 AMMN or AMAN MINERAL rose this morning, again 4% at 12,450.
14:46 ESA rose 3%, ATVLA 3%, BBYB, PTRO, SNLK, BRPT.
14:53 POMIERSA is in the Gainers' list at the 4 minutes of the opening of the first trading session.
14:59 Losers are DMMX, DAYA, LMAX, BP, BPII, PTSP, MSTI, AMAN, NOBU, and RAJA.
15:08 Or as you can see, POMIERSA is in the RTI data.
15:12 - Mr. Bernat, it's normal to go back. - Yes, according to the prediction.
15:19 Because the support number of 6,944 has been raised twice.
15:23 And when we calculate that number, it's twice.
15:26 - Okay, then? - So, this is a very critical support for ISG now.
15:29 6,944 is a critical support. If it can be penetrated down, it can be 6,8...
15:34 - 6,879. - 6,879.
15:36 What is the closest resistance level?
15:39 The closest resistance for ISG now is at the range of 7,114.
15:45 And then at the range of 7,176.
15:49 - 7,114, 7,176. - Yes.
15:53 Okay, out of the Southwest range, if it succeeds, what level will it be?
15:59 Does it mean that the trend has risen again?
16:02 For ISG, it will return to the rising trend in the short term.
16:07 Of course, if it succeeds in penetrating the area of 7,329.
16:13 7,329, it can be said that it is out of the Southwest.
16:18 But there are still some resistance above it to be able to set a new all-time high record.
16:24 ISG's strength this morning was also pushed by AMMN.
16:28 AMMN rose again by 4%. What do you think is very interesting and attractive about AMMN?
16:35 AMMN is quite interesting because the market conditions are very good for investors.
16:43 So, it continues to set the all-time high record.
16:46 Gold, as a sovereign asset, is under unstable market conditions, under poor geopolitical conditions.
16:53 This is an interesting investment option for investors.
16:56 AMMN, as one of Indonesia's largest gold producers, will benefit from this.
17:03 Although, of course, the valuation is already high, although not as high as the previous brand.
17:10 The valuation, in terms of price to profile, has been more than 10 times.
17:13 Why is it not MDKA? Maybe because it was just released in Q1 2024,
17:17 which turned out to be a loss compared to the same period in 2023, which is still profitable.
17:22 Correct.
17:23 Because there is no pure gold, more nickel.
17:26 Yes, there is more nickel in AMMN.
17:27 PSB?
17:28 For PSB, the market cap is too low in terms of valuation.
17:31 So, for investors, they need to pay attention to liquidity.
17:36 We are recommended by Mr. Bernard Pomirso. We summarized in the following graphic data.
17:41 The same as Mr. Pomirso, there are blue chips, PBRI, recommended by.
17:46 Then, Astra is also included in the recommendation from Mr. Bernard.
17:50 BRMS and INKO.
17:52 These four requirements, Mr. Pomirso, we will review together.
17:55 Okay, let's go to BRMS first.
17:59 Why is there a BRMS between PBRI, HSE and INKO?
18:04 Because BRMS, we can see that this is a gold proxy.
18:11 It is one of the largest gold producers in Indonesia.
18:14 It supplies to three largest jewelry companies in Indonesia, which already have a fixed demand.
18:23 It can secure revenue from the BRMS itself.
18:29 And of course, the BRMS gold reserve is also quite good.
18:35 And they are quite active in collaborating or acquiring gold mining.
18:41 And of course, in the future, if the price of gold continues to increase, the profitability of BRMS will be quite positive.
18:49 But yesterday, the net sale was 8 billion rupiah.
18:51 And in the last month, the net sale was almost 3 billion rupiah.
18:57 Not too significant, but in the last three months, the net sale was 95.28 billion rupiah.
19:02 But in my opinion, it's not quite significant.
19:04 Of course, we also see from the flow and technical side of the BRMS itself,
19:11 the support area that is quite strong, which has not yet been tested, is 140.
19:16 As long as it does not reach 140, near 140, it is an interesting area for us to accumulate.
19:21 In the middle of the condition of the increase in the price of gold, which is fluctuating, will naturally benefit the BRMS.
19:26 Rather than chasing the one that has increased significantly, and you said earlier that the valuation is already high,
19:31 it's better to have a potential.
19:33 Correct.
19:34 Okay, the nearest target?
19:36 The nearest target for BRMS, we can pay attention to several resistance areas.
19:41 The first is at moving average 100, at 154.
19:46 And the next resistance is at the area of 160.
19:51 160, okay.
19:53 Inco?
19:55 For Inco, of course, we can see that nickel has recovered again.
20:01 The value of the community?
20:03 The value of the community compared to a few moments ago.
20:05 And Inco itself is currently held in a fairly close support area, at the area of 4440.
20:13 4440?
20:15 This is the support area, the stop loss is at the area of 4400.
20:18 And there is a gap at the top, which can be seen at the area of 4690, there is a gap area.
20:25 And if the gap is closed, there is a potential.
20:27 It can continue to the next area, starting from moving average 20, 4780,
20:33 then the area of 4970, and next it can go to the area of 5200.
20:43 That's the opportunity for Inco.
20:45 Inco is quite interesting because the most reflected value of nickel recovery is Inco.
20:52 Because Inco is the most efficient nickel company in Indonesia.
20:55 Okay, that's what distinguishes it from Antam, which is also nickel.
20:58 Because Antam is not only nickel, but also a producer.
21:02 Okay, what's more, technically, we can see that from the 30th, it has been 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days of profit,
21:08 it has weakened, so it is normal that this morning there is a reversal,
21:11 and there is a gap that should be filled, which you said earlier, it is a gap.
21:14 And in general, it is still in an uptrend condition, as long as it does not collapse in the area of 4400.
21:19 Below 4400, but as long as it is not below that, it is an accumulation.
21:23 We will continue later, Mr. Mir, after the break, stay with us in the market bus segment.
21:29 Mr. Mir, the strength of the index price has been combined until 9 o'clock,
21:33 more than 13 minutes, the Indonesian market continues to continue,
21:35 now it is more than 1%, which is normal, because yesterday it also fell deep,
21:39 it's a pity that it didn't collect yesterday, there is another reversal.
21:43 But you said that the BBRI and ASII are also in the recommendation, why?
21:48 Because ASII and BRI, first I will discuss the BBRI first,
21:52 BBRI is a banking sector, a sector that will support the growth of the Indonesian economy.
21:59 In addition, of course, if we look at the peak in the area of 6400,
22:03 the price of the BBRI has been corrected more than 30%.
22:08 That's really good, it means that the correction is 30%, where else can we get it?
22:13 This is an interesting opportunity for us to do gradual accumulation in several support areas,
22:18 namely in the area of 4400 and the area of 4000 we can buy Jijil.
22:22 For the BBRI, it is defeated by the panic selling in the market, so this is an interesting potential.
22:28 Because in the future, I am sure that this BBRI will still grow to be one of the largest economic growers in Indonesia.
22:33 Okay, in short, is there a strong resistance from you for the BBRI or just a bubble? The cheaper the better.
22:39 In my opinion, in these two numbers, 4400 and 4000, we can accumulate in these two support areas.
22:47 And if it breaks out in the area of 4580, it can continue to the area of 4760 and next to the area of 4980.
22:58 Asra? For Asra International itself, it has also been corrected quite deeply.
23:03 Because of the fear of electric cars in Indonesia.
23:07 However, after the financial report, it is still quite solid and the dividend that is being paid is still quite high.
23:13 And if we look at the peak of Asra International in 2022, it can reach the area of 7650.
23:21 And now at the 4200 level, the correction from the peak point is already more than 40%.
23:27 I personally like the 70% dip, based on the weakness.
23:31 And here for Asra International, we can choose two supports that we can pay attention to,
23:35 to buy the seed in the area of 4520 and the area of 4290.
23:40 And if it breaks out in the area of 4830, the potential to close the gap is in the area of 5050 and next to the area of 5400.
23:49 So the win rate is higher for Asra and BBRI than for the loser.
23:56 There are two strategies, buy at the lower level or buy when it breaks out.
24:01 Okay, that's the recommendation and choice from Mr. Bernard.
24:04 Briefly, Mr. Bernard, before we end the show at home.
24:08 Okay, of course when we buy a company or a stock, we don't look at it as four numbers going up and down.
24:14 If we look at it, it's like a tick, if four letters go up and down.
24:18 But we see it as a company.
24:20 Pay attention to the valuation, pay attention to the company's health.
24:24 So when we are confident with the company's financial condition,
24:29 then we are confident with a fairly cheap valuation,
24:32 and the future projections of this company will continue to survive and continue to grow,
24:36 this will be an interesting company for us to invest in.
24:38 Don't pay attention to the stock as a short-term investment,
24:41 but pay attention to the stock as an instrument for long-term investment.
24:44 This is an opportunity, in the middle of the price correction.
24:48 That's right.
24:49 Mr. Bernard, thank you for sharing your information in the market bus segment this time.
24:52 Good health, success always for you. See you again.
24:55 Thank you, Mrs. Prisa.
24:56 [Music]
24:59 [BLANK_AUDIO]