"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (17/07/2024) dengan Tema Pelemahan Ekonomi Global Ikut Pengaruhi Pergerakan IHSG".
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00:00Now, let's take a look at the interesting economic agenda for us to discuss.
00:03Among them is from the United States, there is a statement from FOMC member, Kugler,
00:07who will make a statement, and this may also be anticipated by the market.
00:11Then there is also a raw oil stock, weekly in the United States.
00:15And there is also a statement from FOMC member Barkin,
00:19whose statement may be quite anticipated by the market players.
00:22And there is also a statement from Fed Waller.
00:24And if we look at it from the UK, there is data on IHK Intis year-on-year, month-on-month, in June.
00:32Then from Indonesia, there is credit data, and there is also a decision on the Indonesian Bank's Bunga tribe.
00:39Meanwhile, from Europe, there is IHK Intis year-on-year, month-on-month, in June.
00:45And the next is the IMF agenda that we will discuss.
01:19And next, we will look at the data on Asian major exchanges this morning.
01:22You can see it on the television screen for Asian major exchanges.
01:27This morning, for Nikkei 225, it was opened weakly, 0.12% at level 41,325.
01:32Then STI Singapore was opened weakly, 0.09% at level 3,491.
01:38KOSPI Korea and also Hang Seng were opened weakly, with each weakness of 0.31% and 1.6%.
01:46And this time in the IDX channel studio, Mr. Ipan Samuel Hutabarat is present,
01:51who is the Director of MNC Asset Management. How are you, Mr. Ipan?
01:54I'm fine, Mas.
01:55Thank you for joining us on MarketBuzz this time,
01:58if we talk about a focus that seems to be happening,
02:03from market players around the world,
02:06about the dynamics of democracy in the United States.
02:10A few years ago, there was an attempt to assassinate a presidential candidate, Donald Trump, from the Republican Party.
02:16It was about his ears, and various assumptions also emerged.
02:24And the psychological impact on the market also seems to be felt.
02:27What do you think is the impact of the dynamics on the market, Mr. Ipan?
02:34Okay.
02:34If we look at yesterday, there was a lot of speculation.
02:39Some said it was intentional, some said it was hateful, and so on.
02:46If we look at it directly, the impact on the market, especially in the United States,
02:52they think that when Trump wins,
02:58it will change the political and economic map in America today.
03:04In a broad sense, Trump is a pro-business man.
03:09That's why in his economic plan, he will always support the drastic cut of the flow of flowers,
03:18the weakening of the exchange rate of USD to other currencies,
03:23and the protection of goods and products in their country.
03:29That's what makes the optimism of the people or investors in America positive.
03:36That's why if we look at the market in the United States,
03:41it's quite positive when there was the incident that happened before.
03:47But actually, it's a relatively small thing.
03:51Actually, the big thing that affects the market movement in America is
03:57because there is a tone from the Fed, especially Jerome Powell,
04:01to lower the confidence, to lower the flow of flowers this year in the near future.
04:10If we look at Joe Biden's economic policies,
04:13which have been applied so far,
04:15and also various policies related to the conflict that took place in the Middle East,
04:21and this also has a psychological impact on the market.
04:27If we look at it, you said that if Donald Trump is re-elected,
04:33and also maybe the historical data when he served as President of the United States,
04:37more pro-economic growth,
04:38which means various policies that support the growth of American economic growth,
04:43he will do it.
04:44One of them is the reduction of the flow of flowers,
04:46which will make us happy too,
04:48to increase the flow of flowers.
04:51If we compare, because later we will meet these two people again,
04:55Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
04:58Which one do you think is more favorable from the point of view of the market actors?
05:03Yes, okay.
05:05At the moment, whoever wins,
05:07the market actors seem to see that with the current conditions,
05:13whoever wins will have their own PR.
05:17They are now burdened with the cost of funds or very high flow of flowers,
05:22from the debt that they issue.
05:24Now it's about 1.1 trillion US dollars per year.
05:28Whereas in 2008, during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis,
05:33it was only about 450 billion US dollars.
05:37That is the PR that must be completed by whoever wins the election later.
05:42With the presence of aggressive flow of flowers,
05:44it should reduce the cost of funds that have been burdening the US government's finances.
05:54Because the increase of 1.1 trillion,
05:57one, because the number of debts is increasing,
05:59the second, because the level of flow of flowers is increasing.
06:02If it is reduced aggressively, the cost of funds will automatically decrease.
06:06It is hoped that Trump can push the Fed to reduce it more aggressively.
06:13On the one hand, their cost of funds will decrease.
06:16On the other hand, the economic growth will increase.
06:19Because there is a cost of funds that also decreases from the corporate side.
06:25So which one is favorable?
06:28Actually, from the industry.
06:32As we know, Trump does not care about clean energy in the industry.
06:38He wants to use coal, he wants to use fossil fuel.
06:42That's what he's worried about.
06:45As long as it's cheap, he will...
06:48He doesn't even believe in global warming.
06:49That's right.
06:51But with the decrease in the cost of production,
06:53due to the use of cheaper energy,
06:55the cost of production from manufacturers should also decrease.
06:59So the earnings will increase.
07:01In addition to the reduction of taxes.
07:04Because Trump also supports tax cutting against corporates.
07:10What do you think about the possibility,
07:12or maybe the assumption or analysis,
07:14related to the possibility of an increase in inflation in the United States,
07:18which also makes it a bit difficult for the Fed rate to go down.
07:23If inflation goes up, the Fed rate will also go up.
07:27What do you think about this assumption?
07:29Well, if we look at the current condition,
07:33if we look at the disinflation from the June data,
07:40that's why the Fed is optimistic.
07:43Because they look at some economic data,
07:45such as the labor market.
07:46We see that the unemployment rate has risen again, 4.1%.
07:51Then we also see that the initial jobless claims have increased.
07:55Then we also see that the wage, their weekly salary, has also decreased.
08:01We see that the delay has actually started to impact their economic growth.
08:08That's why it is estimated by the IMF that the US economy this year will be delayed,
08:14but not hard landing.
08:15People usually like to say hard landing.
08:18Going down is too drastic, but it will turn out to be soft landing.
08:21Okay, we will continue with the next session, Mr. Ivan.
08:24We will be right back.
08:27Thank you for joining us.
08:29We are still talking with Mr. Ivan Samuel Hutabarat,
08:32Director of MNC Asset Management.
08:34We are still discussing what happened in the US,
08:38the democracy process there,
08:39before the pill press happened,
08:43or maybe the pill press was carried out there,
08:46which again found Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
08:52If we look at the possibilities,
08:56when Trump returns to office,
08:58because if we look at various indicators,
09:00one of them is the electability of Donald Trump himself,
09:03which rose to 70% in the last incident.
09:07And people are saying that Trump will probably rise again.
09:11And if we talk about the dynamics that happened when Trump rose,
09:15it was related to the trade war.
09:17If we talk about the context of the capital market in the country,
09:21or the sectors that are affected,
09:24both positive and negative,
09:25when there is a trade war, Mr. Ivan,
09:29what is your analysis like?
09:30Yes, this is interesting.
09:32Because if we know, Trump always says that America is great again.
09:38He wants, or he doesn't want to be teased.
09:41All this time, we know that America has become a superpower.
09:45He doesn't want it. There are competitors.
09:47The closest competitor right now, we know, is China.
09:50Because China can produce everything cheaply.
09:54And in terms of quality, it's not bad, but it's good.
09:59That's why Trump is very intense about the tariffs on Chinese products,
10:08because he wants the investment to come back again.
10:13If it's technology, we don't have to say that everything is already in America.
10:16But it's like another manufacturing sector.
10:18It's back to the US.
10:20But nevertheless, we know that in the US,
10:23the cost of production will definitely be quite expensive.
10:26Both in terms of manpower,
10:29both in terms of input costs, raw materials, and all kinds of things.
10:33So if we talk about what industry or sector is affected,
10:37it's definitely from Trump's work plan.
10:41If we say it's the same as before,
10:43he won't care about the use of fossil fuels.
10:48Which will benefit the commodity sectors.
10:52Especially coal.
10:54Then in the middle of the tariff,
11:00there will be even higher uncertainty
11:06about global trade.
11:08It will also increase the so-called gold community.
11:12If we know that geopolitical issues are increasing again,
11:16as a result of the trade war,
11:18it will definitely benefit from safe haven assets,
11:21one of which is gold.
11:23Then what other sectors?
11:25In terms of sectors,
11:27if we know, it's definitely sectors related to technology.
11:32Especially now in the US,
11:34they are trying to improve AI,
11:38AI usage.
11:40It will also benefit from the technology sector in the US.
11:47But if we look at it,
11:49Trump is very supportive of AI use in all aspects of business life.
11:54I remember a few years ago,
11:56when Donald Trump served as President of the United States,
12:00it was a momentum for Indonesia.
12:05Especially when the trade war happened.
12:07Because there were some imports that were held,
12:11and China could not do it to the United States.
12:14But it could be filled by Indonesia.
12:16Likewise, when Indonesia saw the Chinese market as a potential market,
12:21there was no import that could be done by China from the US.
12:24Indonesia could fill it.
12:26It could be used by the domestic industry or some sectors.
12:32What can be expected from the democratic process
12:37that Trump and Biden met in the process?
12:41What do you think is different this time?
12:45Okay.
12:47Actually,
12:49in terms of the policies that will be implemented by Trump,
12:55it seems that there won't be much difference
12:59from what he did before he lost the election.
13:04Or when he held several debates,
13:08it was almost the same.
13:10He will do whatever he wants in his policies later.
13:14However, if we look at it now,
13:16because there will be a lot of new government projects,
13:20one of which is a fairly high level of debt,
13:24and the labor sector must also be repaired.
13:31Because of the current high level of the flower tribe,
13:37it has been implicated in the manufacturing sector.
13:41If we look at the decline in PMI,
13:43Trump will definitely push it further.
13:47One of the things he did was to give,
13:50maybe in various ways,
13:52maybe with the policy of cutting taxes to corporations,
13:57or imposing taxes on rich people,
13:59we don't know.
14:01But in a broad sense,
14:04Trump wants the investment to happen again,
14:08to increase again in his country.
14:10So everyone goes to their country
14:12and they become exporters of certain goods.
14:17That's why if we look at it,
14:20how to weaken the eyes of money.
14:22Why does a country weaken the eyes of money?
14:26Because he wants the goods he exports to be more competitive or cheaper.
14:31He also doesn't want to lose to China's products.
14:34Because in terms of quality,
14:36they know they are better than China.
14:38That's why they support how they become one of the global players in the world.
14:45Let's not forget that now there is a geopolitical conflict
14:50between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
14:53And there is also a conflict with Russia and Ukraine
14:57when Biden and Trump first met at the press conference.
15:03There is no such conflict yet.
15:05It looks like there are expectations
15:07related to the resolution
15:09that will reduce the geopolitical tension in the world.
15:15And as we know,
15:17when Donald Trump was in office as president,
15:19there was no physical war, as far as I remember.
15:23What happened was a side war,
15:25maybe a trade war.
15:27Okay, there is still one segment left.
15:29We will continue with the next segment.
15:31Stay with us.
15:33We will come back to the next segment.
15:35Thank you for joining us.
15:37This is the opening data from IHSG this morning.
15:41A few moments ago, IHSG moved to the green zone.
15:43It was at the level...
15:47Okay.
15:49It was at the highest level,
15:517265.
15:53And the lowest was 7249.839.
15:59And in percentage,
16:01for IHSG alone,
16:03it was 0.45%.
16:05Okay, let's continue.
16:25Okay, we are still discussing
16:27what happened in the US
16:29as an implication
16:31for the global market.
16:35We are still with Mr. Irfan Samuel,
16:37Director of MNCSF Management.
16:39There is an endorsement from Mr. Irfan
16:41to Donald Trump
16:43so that he can be
16:45president again in the US.
16:47What is the implication?
16:49Okay, this is also interesting
16:51when we talk about
16:53why Mr. Irfan suddenly changed his mind
16:55to support Trump.
16:57Even though we know that
16:59Trump's policy is not clean.
17:01In terms of energy usage,
17:03it will continue.
17:05Because we know that
17:07Mr. Irfan
17:09is very supportive
17:11of clean energy.
17:13If we look at
17:15the interesting part,
17:17Mr. Irfan
17:19promised to give
17:21US$45 million per month
17:23to support
17:25Donald Trump
17:27so that he can win as president.
17:29That's why we see
17:31one interesting thing.
17:33Maybe on one hand,
17:35Mr. Irfan sees that
17:37all this time,
17:39when Biden
17:41is in office as president,
17:43there are many things
17:45that do not benefit him
17:47as an entrepreneur
17:49in several sectors or businesses.
17:51One of them is EV.
17:53According to Mr. Irfan,
17:55if he tweets on Twitter,
17:57he will tweet to cancel the subsidy.
17:59Because one of them
18:01will benefit his competitors,
18:03but it will harm him.
18:05It will damage the market price.
18:07Secondly,
18:09if we look at it,
18:11Trump is also very supportive
18:13of cryptocurrency usage.
18:15As far as we know,
18:17Mr. Elon Musk
18:19is also focused on Bitcoin
18:21or cryptocurrency.
18:23He is one of his investors.
18:25So if we look at it,
18:27he is also supportive.
18:29In my opinion,
18:31this is why he supports Trump.
18:33Because Trump has made it clear
18:35that in the future,
18:37cryptocurrency will become
18:39a digital currency
18:41to be seen.
18:43It will benefit him
18:45as an entrepreneur.
18:47If the use of cryptocurrency
18:49is mass,
18:51it will also increase
18:53the price or demand.
18:55I remember a while ago,
18:57when the CEO of Twitter
18:59changed to X,
19:01Donald Trump was banned
19:03from Twitter.
19:05Because there are statements
19:07that are considered provocative.
19:09Then Trump has Truth Social,
19:11his social media platform.
19:13Maybe now,
19:15if the CEO is Elon Musk,
19:17Donald Trump will also have an X account.
19:19And it is allowed to campaign there.
19:21Because it becomes a platform
19:23for a campaign
19:25that is quite
19:27influential
19:29in the US.
19:31Okay, let's move on to IHSG.
19:33Mr. Ipan,
19:35there was an incident a while ago.
19:37Rupiah 40,000 and IHSG were affected.
19:39Although there was
19:41a positive movement
19:43recently.
19:45What do you think?
19:47And if we look at the opening data,
19:49it is still in the green zone.
19:51We anticipate this movement.
19:53Okay.
19:55Let's look at Rupiah first.
19:57Rupiah, as we can see,
19:59in the last few weeks,
20:01it has weakened to Rp16,400.
20:03Which
20:05worried
20:07some investors,
20:09some economists,
20:11that with
20:13this weakening,
20:15it will increase the cost.
20:17From the cost of manufacturing,
20:19because imported goods
20:21will be more expensive,
20:23as well as consumer goods.
20:25It will increase inflation.
20:27It is usually called imported inflation.
20:29Inflation due to imports.
20:31However, if we look at it yesterday,
20:33it was able to strengthen.
20:35From Rp16,400,
20:37it is now below Rp16,200.
20:39Or Rp16,200, we say.
20:41But the strengthening
20:43is not
20:45comparable
20:47to the movement of IASG.
20:49Because if we look at it,
20:53the PR or
20:55the risk that must be faced
20:57in Indonesia is quite big.
20:59One of them is
21:01the increase of
21:03or
21:05the issuance of foreign funds,
21:07especially from the financial sector.
21:09Whether it is from the debt market
21:11or our equity market.
21:13That makes us see
21:15that our economy
21:17is still in a deficit.
21:19Although our trade rate is positive,
21:21it is already slowing down.
21:23Because if we know,
21:25to increase
21:27the number of IASG in the country,
21:29first,
21:31export must be increased.
21:33Then we have to
21:35do our best to
21:37encourage foreign investors to invest.
21:39Especially in
21:41investment portfolios,
21:43such as the debt market or the stock market.
21:45So if I look at it,
21:47currently, the Rupiah movement
21:49is only due to external factors.
21:51But there is no internal factor.
21:53That's it.
21:55Okay.
21:57Let's look at the dynamics
21:59of the Rupiah movement and IASG.
22:01Today, whatever the implications
22:03that are presented or
22:05perhaps arisen from the dynamics
22:07in the United States,
22:09hopefully it will have a positive impact
22:11on the Indonesian market or IASG.
22:13There are many
22:15possibilities that can be explored
22:17to provide benefits to the economy
22:19in Indonesia and also in sectors.
22:21Thank you for joining us.
22:23Good luck to you. See you again.