IHSG Menutup Semester I Menembus Level 7.000
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (01/07/2024) dengan Tema IHSG Menutup Semester I Menembus Level 7.000".
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00:00Let's take a look at some global economic agendas and domestic emissions agendas.
00:05From the United States, there is PMI Manufacture,
00:08then from the UK, there is Credit Consumer BOE or Central Bank from the UK,
00:14then there is the Consumer Price Index from Germany,
00:16PMI Manufacture from Japan, then the King of South Korean Trade,
00:20and PMI Manufacture Australia, as well as Singapore Bank Lending and Inflation,
00:25as well as the Consumer Price Index or Inflation Data from Indonesia at the beginning of this month.
00:30And in the country, PMI will also have emitting agendas such as
00:34the CTRA DPS Cash Dividend, then the RAM DPS Cash Dividend,
00:38SMSM Cash Dividend, Unilever Axe Cash Dividend,
00:42SMRA Axe Cash Dividend, Doit Cash Dividend,
00:45and CAMP Cash Dividend, as well as NTBK Cash Dividend Payment.
00:51Next, we will update the position of the ASEAN Stock Exchange this morning,
00:55which may be a picture of the opening of trade in the first session for the Consumer Price Index.
01:01Nikkei, Japan, the stock market is expected to strengthen by 0.44% at 39,758.
01:08Stratetime, Singapore fell by 0.17%,
01:11KOSPI fell by 0.12%,
01:13Hang Seng, Hong Kong, rose by 0.01%.
01:21There are a lot of sentiments that should be the attention of PMI,
01:24such as the strengthening of the Consumer Price Index,
01:26which was above 1% last Friday,
01:29which is quite high compared to the closing at the end of the previous week.
01:32Then, PMI also has data on inflation from the United States,
01:36which is considered to be quite pleasing,
01:38as well as political uncertainty from the United States,
01:40and also anticipation of the inflation data that will be released from Indonesia today.
01:45It has been connected through the video conference of PMI,
01:48Mr. Eza Ridho Ibnu Tama, Interim Head of Research Henan Putih Raisekuritas.
01:52Hello, Mr. Eza, how are you?
01:55Hello, I'm fine.
01:57Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Eza.
01:59Let's start first with news that is quite exciting.
02:03At the end of the week,
02:05the first semester of 2024,
02:07the Consumer Price Index jumped above 1%,
02:10above 7,000 again,
02:12much higher than the closing at the end of the previous week.
02:16Netbuy Async is also quite significant.
02:18How do you analyze the movement of the Consumer Price Index
02:22at the end of last week?
02:25So, last week, ISG rebounded,
02:30and rebounded back above 7,000.
02:34But if you can see that the trading volume has actually decreased
02:38as it rebounded.
02:40In other words, ISG is rising like a plane,
02:45but there is no gasoline.
02:47The gasoline is starting to decrease.
02:51So, what we're seeing is that ISG,
02:56this rebound, is not going to last.
02:58ISG will probably reach 7,150
03:03as a hard ceiling, 7,150 to 7,200.
03:09After that, it will continue to downtrend.
03:11Right now, it's just a minor rebound
03:15before it goes back below 7,000.
03:18It could go back to 6,500.
03:23It could go back to 6,500.
03:26Correct.
03:27What is the motivation for you to say that this strength is only temporary?
03:32For the trading volume, it's getting thinner and thinner.
03:37So, even though ISG is rising, the trading volume is decreasing.
03:41So, we're seeing less participation in our markets.
03:44Okay, the trading volume is decreasing.
03:46What does that mean, Mr. Eza?
03:50Are people still investing in the capital market,
03:54but with insignificant value, or what?
03:58That means the majority of the inflow is only to Megacap.
04:04ISG is a market cap weighted.
04:07So, if the top 10 market caps have inflow,
04:12such as Aman, Brand, BCA,
04:15if they rebound,
04:17ISG will be quite influential.
04:21It's going to follow where the big caps are going to go.
04:25But, with less market participation,
04:27and if we look at the trading volume
04:31in Megacap, it's also starting to go down.
04:35The rebound is not going to last for a very long time.
04:39Our target is 7,150 to 7,200.
04:45Then, the downtrend will continue.
04:48Okay.
04:49It's confirmed that the downtrend will continue
04:51if it goes down to what level?
04:53Right now, it's at 7,063.
04:56It's going to be a big hit if it goes back to what position?
05:01We see that it's going to go to 7,150 to 7,200 first.
05:08Achieve that resistance first.
05:10Then, there is a possibility to go back to support 6,500.
05:14Okay.
05:15So, at the beginning of the second semester of 2024,
05:18there is a chance for a downward trend.
05:20But, for the trend itself,
05:22from the Indeks Harga Samgabungan,
05:23what is the current trend?
05:26Right now, it's a major downtrend.
05:30We see that it's only a minor rebound.
05:34Because we see that there are many factors
05:36that make foreign investors,
05:38especially those who want to withdraw money
05:41from developing economies such as Indonesia,
05:44go back to their point of origin.
05:49Okay. So, you see that this is only a minor uptrend.
05:54There is a chance for another downward trend.
05:56Foreign investors also go to the Indonesian market.
05:58It's not even.
06:00Only to some stocks whose market cap is quite significant.
06:03That's the downtrend.
06:04Why did the Indeks Harga Samgabungan index
06:06experience a boost at the end of last week
06:08up to more than 1% to 7,000 again?
06:10Okay.
06:11So, how do you see the economic growth
06:15of the first quarter in the US
06:17which is slightly better than the previous figure?
06:20Then, the new inflation data from last week.
06:23And maybe also about the uncertainty
06:25of the US policy.
06:26How far will it give an impact
06:30on the decision of the Fed
06:32which will also have an impact on foreign capital flows
06:35to our domestic market?
06:38Majority of the GDP growth,
06:41it's been catalyzed by a lot of the tariffs.
06:48And a lot of the output that's been going on
06:52in the first half of the year in America.
06:56So, the GDP growth actually signals a recovery
07:01of the American economy right now.
07:05But, if we want to discuss the uncertainty
07:09related to the US policy,
07:13especially from the debate between Trump
07:16and Joe Biden yesterday,
07:17the sentiment with Biden
07:21is that his performance is not good enough.
07:24Indeed, there has been calls for him
07:27to actually step down
07:30and let someone replace him
07:34in the Democratic ticket.
07:35Unfortunately, to his credit,
07:38Biden doesn't want to be replaced.
07:41So, it's possible that the Democrats
07:44are stuck with him
07:45until November's election in the United States.
07:49But, we can see
07:51that as we move towards the end of this year,
07:56there's no more surprises.
07:58Because we can see that there is a shift
08:01to the right wing of politics,
08:02to populism as well.
08:04So, there's no more uncertainties.
08:08Perhaps a few hours ago,
08:10France had their election,
08:13and the right wing party won
08:18the majority of the seats
08:19in the French parliament as well.
08:22And a few months later,
08:23the right wing in Europe
08:25also got a majority or large seats
08:30in the European Union parliament as well.
08:34So, with the performance debate yesterday,
08:38many people have estimated
08:41that Trump will win again.
08:44He will get his second term in November.
08:47So, we have seen the current trend
08:51and there's a possibility
08:52that there will be more populism
08:55for the next, let's say,
08:57for the next four to five years
08:59in terms of politics.
09:02Okay. Will that be positive?
09:04With the tendency that Trump is better
09:07than the debate yesterday?
09:10Yes. So, Trump,
09:12because he is more to the right wing of politics,
09:16is going to be more American-focused,
09:20more focused in their own country.
09:24But that is also one of the sentiments
09:27that is not good for us.
09:29Because with the increase in tariffs,
09:31with more protectionism,
09:33trade with these Western countries
09:36is going to be very, very difficult to penetrate
09:39as opposed to right now
09:41with free trade agreements.
09:43Okay. So, it's still quite tense
09:45between Trump and Biden
09:47because Biden is the defender
09:48but Trump also seems to be superior.
09:50So, many people have estimated
09:51that their debate last week
09:55did not reduce the uncertainty,
09:57but increased the uncertainty
09:59because it is difficult to determine
10:01who is going to be truly superior
10:03in the end.
10:05So, what about the optimism,
10:07the speculation about the cut of the flow rate
10:10where about 66% of the research
10:14is sure that in September
10:15there will be a break from the Fed?
10:17Does that also affect our domestic market?
10:20And what should be the strategy, Mr. Ezzah?
10:24Yes. From the beginning of the year,
10:26we have probably heard
10:28that the flow rate will be reduced
10:30maybe in the middle,
10:32maybe in the second quarter,
10:34and then in the third quarter.
10:35Now, it's going back to the fourth quarter.
10:37At some point, the Fed has to cut the flow rate
10:41because there is indeed a pressure from politics
10:45and there is also a pressure from the economy.
10:48And we have seen that the data on inflation
10:51is starting to improve.
10:53There is disinflation in America
10:56and September should be a good time.
11:00If we look at all the numbers,
11:02if all the numbers and metrics
11:05stay the same,
11:07stay the same trend until September,
11:09the Fed has a good chance to cut the flow rate.
11:12And that also makes Indonesia
11:19start to relax their policy as well.
11:21So, there could be a potential
11:23for Bank Indonesia to actually follow.
11:25But don't expect Bank Indonesia
11:28in September, after hearing the news,
11:31to immediately cut the flow rate.
11:32They also have to look at Indonesia's condition as well.
11:35Okay. So, according to Mr. Ezzah,
11:38September should be a good time
11:41for Central Bank of the United States
11:44to start cutting the flow rate.
11:45But there is also uncertainty there, right?
11:49Because, as you said,
11:51the flow rate has been cut
11:53and now there is a chance for September and December.
11:56So, what are your recommendations
12:00considering the price of oil is also rising?
12:03Are you also interested in this sector?
12:05We will review the recommendations
12:07in the next session of PEMIR
12:10as long as you are still with us
12:11in the market bus segment.