Saham Batu Bara Kembali Membara, IHSG Berpeluang ke 7.300?
IHSG ditutup berbalik arah +0,56% dan mendekati level 7.300 di 7.297,62 di Senin (12/8/2024). Sektor energi +3,23% di topang saham batu bara di tengah harga komoditas menyentuh harga tertinggi sejak Desember 2023. Saham DSSA +18,30%, HRUM +13,79% di tengah rencana buyback Rp1 T dan PTBA +2,71%.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir variatif, Senin, ketika investor bersiap menyambut serangkaian data ekonomi AS pekan ini, terutama indeks harga konsumen untuk mengukur prospek kebijakan moneter The Fed.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir variatif, Senin, ketika investor bersiap menyambut serangkaian data ekonomi AS pekan ini, terutama indeks harga konsumen untuk mengukur prospek kebijakan moneter The Fed.
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TVTranscript
00:00I think we will take a look at the economic agenda for now, which is interesting for us to discuss from the United States.
00:12There is the IHP, which does not include food, energy, and transportation in a one-on-one manner in July.
00:16Then there is also the IHP, which does not include food, energy, and transportation in a year-on-year manner in July.
00:22Then there is also the index, the price of the main producer in a year-on-year manner in July.
00:27Then there is the IHP, which does not include food, energy, and transportation in a year-on-year manner in July.
00:35Then there is the IEA, which does not include food, energy, and transportation in a year-on-year manner in July.
00:48Then there is the ME10 agenda, which does not include food, energy, and transportation in a year-on-year manner in July.
01:04And the next one is for the opening of Asian major exchanges this morning.
01:09It seems that the opening of Asian major exchanges is strengthened, except for KOSPI.
01:16It seems that the opening is strengthened by 2.61% at level 35,938.43.
01:21The opening of Singapore's STI is strengthened by 0.46% at level 3,250.37.
01:26The opening of Korea's KOSPI is weakened by 0.12% at level 2,615.2.
01:31And the opening of Hong Kong's Hang Seng is strengthened by 0.28% at level 17,160.
01:39The opening of Singapore's STI is strengthened by 0.28% at level 3,250.
01:43The opening of Hong Kong's Hang Seng is strengthened by 0.28% at level 3,250.
01:47The opening of Singapore's STI is strengthened by 0.28% at level 3,250.
01:51Good morning.
01:52To discuss this morning at MarketBus,
01:54it has been continued by For The Conference,
01:56there is Mr. Raden Bagus Bima, who is the founder of Warkob Saham.
02:01Good morning, Mr. Bima.
02:04Good morning.
02:05Good morning, sir.
02:06Thank you for joining us at MarketBus this morning.
02:10I hope we can see each other often, Mr. Bima.
02:13Yes, Mr. Wiki.
02:14Mr. Bima talked about the movement of ISG last Monday,
02:17which is moving in a variety, but trying to get closer to level 7,300.
02:23How do you analyze this, Mr. Bima?
02:26Yes, I think the current level is not an easy level, Mr. Wiki.
02:32As I noted, we continue to decline.
02:34The highest level of ISG in every month continues to decline.
02:38I just mentioned in March yesterday,
02:40ISG recorded the highest level at 7,454.
02:45Then in May, the highest was 7,374.
02:50This is a difference of about 80 points of decline.
02:53Then in July yesterday, our highest was only 7,354.
02:57This is also a difference of 20 points compared to the highest in May.
03:01This means that the highest level of ISG in every month continues to decline.
03:07This means that this position is a sign that it is not easy for ISG
03:13to rise above the current level of 7,300.
03:17I see quite a big challenge in addition to the global conditions
03:23at the moment in our market,
03:25especially for the blue chip emitters that have released financial reports,
03:29which have also been seen in the current graphic.
03:33So in my opinion, for ISG to strengthen higher than 7,300,
03:39there needs to be a strong enough booster for now.
03:42Okay, even though yesterday in the last few minutes,
03:44ISG was at level 7,297, very close to level 7,300.
03:49But then you see the possibility that it will not be achieved in the near future, Mr. Bima.
03:55Yes, I think if there is a booster above 7,300,
03:59of course this is a positive thing for a short period of time.
04:02Considering the decline in the trend from March to now,
04:07more or less 5 months,
04:09it means that it takes quite a lot of strength to strengthen.
04:12In addition to the positive news,
04:14it may also need to be supported by the global booster factors.
04:19Okay, it means that if we look at the domestic sentiment,
04:24it is not yet too significant to lift the ISG booster,
04:27because maybe globally there is no such thing, right, Mr. Bima?
04:32That's right, Mr. Uki. We are still waiting until September.
04:36Okay, then how do you see the impact of President-elect Prabowo Subianto's statement
04:41who has committed to continue development in the Indo-Pacific region,
04:45especially for certain sectors?
04:47Maybe the market cap is quite large,
04:52how long will this drag their work
04:56related to the statement that was made by President-elect Prabowo Subianto a while ago?
05:02Yes, I think if we look at and compare it
05:06with the construction performance in the current construction sectors,
05:10especially there are two stocks that are the best at the moment,
05:13namely PTPP and also Bujaya Karya,
05:16but at the moment these two are not an option for us to hold for a long time.
05:21I think investors learn a lot about this sector,
05:26and I think investors will be very careful to see opportunities,
05:31even though there are opportunities in PTPP and also in Bujaya Karya,
05:35but I highly recommend investors to participate in those stocks for a short period of time.
05:43Okay.
05:44Then if we look at the energy sector,
05:47which is capable of strengthening with methane,
05:49just strengthened in the middle of the price of coal,
05:51touching the highest level in 8 specific months for coal-based stocks,
05:56do you think this is interesting or not, Mr. Bima?
06:00I think it's still interesting, Mr. Wiking,
06:02because no matter what, the coal sector is one of the stocks
06:07that has a fairly high potential dividend yield,
06:10we need to see later for the purchase level,
06:13at the same time, the dividend yield is still quite interesting,
06:15considering that this year, some coal-based stocks are still experiencing losses.
06:20Automatically, the potential dividend yield received by investors will also decrease,
06:25so we really have to be more selective in choosing the stock.
06:29Does it mean that even if it's selective, it's just short-term or what?
06:34Yes, we can still follow the current cycle, Mr. Wiking,
06:39because for the coal sector, even though in the 3rd quarter or even in the 4th quarter,
06:44not all of them are strong.
06:45I'll give you an example,
06:46the one that is more resistant and stronger in the second semester
06:50is ETMG compared to, for example, PTBA.
06:53So if PTBA only rises in December,
06:56for example, in the last few years,
06:58but for ETMG, it has a much greater opportunity.
07:02The increase from August to December,
07:05at most only in November will experience a correction.
07:07Okay, there will be 4 options that we will discuss in the next session.
07:10Mr. Bima, from you and Mr. Wiking, we will be right back.
07:13Thank you for still joining us, Mr. Wiking.
07:16And before we continue our discussion with Mr. Raden Bagus Bima,
07:20the founder of WarCopSum,
07:21we will present the options this time from Mr. Bima.
07:24Among them, there is ARTO with a buy recommendation,
07:27with an entry level that is recommended at level 2,770,
07:31with a target price at 3,000.
07:34Do a stop-loss if you have reached level 2,700.
07:38Then Kijar with a buy recommendation,
07:40entry at 1.40, target at 1.50,
07:43stop-loss if you have entered 1.36.
07:45Then Elsa with a buy recommendation,
07:47entry at 4.90, target at 5.20,
07:50stop-loss if you have entered 4.80.
07:52Then Astra International is recommended to buy
07:55with an entry at 4.760 and a target at 5,000,
07:58stop-loss if you have entered level 4,700.
08:02We will discuss one by one.
08:04Mr. Bima, we will go to ARTO first.
08:06What makes ARTO look interesting to be recommended this morning?
08:14Yes, that's right, Mr. Wiki.
08:15At least there are two important things that we need to see.
08:18The first is related to the current trend in ARTO,
08:23from mid-June until mid-August,
08:27the trend is still in an uptrend position, Mr. Wiki.
08:30The second most important thing is
08:32when IHSG made a sharp correction in the beginning of last week,
08:38but it didn't happen in ARTO.
08:40I respect that there is something interesting,
08:44although we still see it from a technical point of view,
08:46but at least this can be an opportunity for investors
08:51who may still have ARTO shares at relatively high prices.
08:56I target, as mentioned earlier,
08:59to increase ARTO for the next few years to 3,000.
09:03In my opinion, this is a very measurable target
09:06and still in line with the current trend.
09:09If we look at ARTO's growth and revenue year-on-year,
09:13in 2021, it grew by 504.66%.
09:17This is very significant.
09:19In 2022, it grew by 126.62%,
09:23and in 2023, it dropped to 31.26%.
09:27Finally, at 2770,
09:30does this mean that we are still waiting for the recommended level to be able to enter?
09:36At the 2700 level,
09:38or at the current level,
09:40seeing the interesting upside potential,
09:42we can immediately enter the 2770 level at ARTO?
09:46Yes, in my opinion, the 2770 level can still enter.
09:50Even if there is a weakness,
09:52as long as it is still above the stop level,
09:54I think we can still enter for accumulation.
09:56Okay.
09:57If we look at the valuation,
09:59in your opinion, compared to the peers,
10:01is it cheap enough?
10:03Or what is it like, Bima?
10:05If we look at the valuation,
10:07it's not too interesting, Wiki.
10:09Because we can't see ARTO's perspective
10:13from the fundamental valuation.
10:16But if we look at the technical side,
10:19to target up to level 3,000
10:21in the near future,
10:23I think it's still very measurable.
10:25But it's not a stock to be held for, for example,
10:294 months or even 6 months.
10:31It's not like that.
10:33So we still see from the technical side
10:35for ARTO stocks.
10:37Okay, the investment term for ARTO
10:39is just short?
10:41Yes, I think for the next 2-4 weeks,
10:43it's still quite interesting for ARTO stocks.
10:45Okay.
10:46From ARTO, we go to Kija.
10:48The recommendation is good.
10:50The distance from the buying level
10:54to the target is quite short.
10:57Is this recommendation only for Kija?
11:00Or what is it like, Bima?
11:02Yes, that's right.
11:04We know that in this market,
11:06there is quite an interesting sentiment
11:08from Kija.
11:09So we take advantage of the sentiment
11:11which in my opinion still has the potential
11:13to continue again in this market.
11:16There has been an increase
11:18from the beginning of July yesterday
11:20and it started to increase again
11:22in the middle of August last week.
11:24So I think for the short term,
11:26level 150,
11:28this is a position of around 10 points
11:30from the closing price yesterday,
11:32we can make a purchase.
11:34Even if there is a slight increase,
11:36141, 142,
11:38this is a price that we can still accumulate.
11:41Meanwhile, for the stop loss level,
11:43it's at level 136.
11:45For Kija,
11:46this is a short-term period.
11:48Okay, in terms of work,
11:50the stock price from Kija
11:52fell by 75.69% in the first semester of 2024
11:55because of the volatility of the US dollar.
12:01But then, technically,
12:03the movement is still interesting.
12:05141, let's wait for it to reach level 136.
12:12As long as it's still above 136,
12:14for example, 138, 139, 140,
12:17we can still accumulate.
12:20Okay, that was the analysis for Kija
12:22which is interesting to be examined technically.
12:25From Kija, we go to Elsa.
12:27What do you think, Mr. Bima?
12:29Yes, Elsa, as far as we know,
12:31in this period,
12:33there was a significant increase,
12:35especially from the movement of the community
12:37in the oil sector.
12:40So I think in this period,
12:42especially after there was a hot sentiment
12:45from Iran and Israel,
12:47I think there is still a chance for Elsa.
12:49And this morning there was already a boost.
12:52My target is to reach level 520
12:55with a stop-loss level of 480.
12:58We'll see later, Mr. Wiki.
13:00If tomorrow,
13:02the price of oil still has a boost,
13:04even like the previous day at 3%,
13:07I think the boost for Elsa
13:09can be higher until the end of this week.
13:11Okay, from Labah Bersipul,
13:13for Elsa, in the first semester of 2024,
13:15it increased by 77%, supported by logistics services
13:17and also distribution.
13:19And in today's trading opening,
13:22it seems that the trend is still moving in the positive zone,
13:26at level 500.
13:28In a week, it has increased by 5.93%,
13:32and at the opening level, it has increased by 2%.
13:35For Elsa, the recommendation is good.
13:37What is Astra International like, Mr. Bima?
13:41Yes, I think this is one of the stocks
13:43that must not be missed, Mr. Wiki.
13:45Because this is one of the big cap stocks
13:48whose position is in a good way.
13:50Since the end of July,
13:52foreign investors have entered quite a lot.
13:55Even just yesterday,
13:57it was already more than 500 billion,
13:59foreign accumulation that was gradually done.
14:03So I think, with the price of the Astra stock
14:06which is currently below level 5000,
14:09investors can make purchases
14:11at the current prices of 4760, 4780, for example,
14:16to later be able to set the target level at level 5000.
14:20This is for the next 2-3 weeks,
14:23I think the opportunity for Astra to create is quite large.
14:26So if there is a correction later,
14:29as long as it is still above the stop-loss level of 4700
14:33and the foreign investor is still quite diligent in accumulating,
14:37I think we can continue to accumulate
14:39with the target at the level of 5000,
14:41which is the closest to Astra.
14:43Okay, what about the mid-range for Astra?
14:45I think the mid-range for Astra
14:48can reach the level of 5300, Mr. Wiki.
14:51Okay, this is also quite interesting.
14:54From a technical point of view, you may see it quite interesting.
14:57And also fundamentally, you see the target price at 5300.
15:02Okay, that's all the recommendations this morning from Mr. Bima.
15:06Mr. Arto, Kija, Elsa, Astra International,
15:09and also all of them were well-recommended,
15:11of course with analysis and also indicators.
15:15The reason is like that, why was it recommended?
15:17It was also mentioned in detail by Mr. Bima.
15:21Mr. Bima, we will leave for a while,
15:23and you are still with us, we will be back soon.
15:25Thank you for still joining us.
15:27You and I are still talking with Mr. Raden Bagus Bima,
15:30the founder of Warcop, Mr. Bima's stock.
15:32Mr. Bima, if we look at Harum's stock,
15:34which is up to 14% in intraday on Monday,
15:37in the middle of the buyback plan,
15:381 trillion rupiah analysis for Harum,
15:40what is it like?
15:42And how is it?
15:43Maybe we can still take advantage of it,
15:47to then be able to enter,
15:49or avoid it first,
15:50because the strengthening is already a sign of correction.
15:54Yes, I think from the sentiment side,
15:57this is of course very interesting, Mr. Wiki.
15:59The value that will be set as the level to do the buyback,
16:05this is up to 1 trillion.
16:08So I think, but we still have to wait,
16:11because we are waiting until later,
16:13the ROPS on the 17th of September,
16:15of course this is still about a month,
16:18so we don't have to force it,
16:20to be able to enter the high level right now.
16:23As Mr. Wiki said,
16:25I think we still have to wait
16:27until there is a rest for Harum,
16:31because this is also together,
16:33actually the strengthening in the coal community,
16:37so the strengthening is quite relatively high,
16:40so we need to wait and see first,
16:42because the ROPS is still about a month for Harum.
16:46Okay, we leave Harum,
16:47we head to the opening of the market,
16:49so far, up to more than 96 minutes,
16:52time in West Indonesia,
16:53data that was captured,
16:55the IHSG indicator is moving,
16:57strengthening,
16:58with the time a few times ago,
17:02at the level of 7,324.376,
17:06and of course this is still moving,
17:10the data is like that,
17:11at the level of 7,329.64.
17:17Okay, greetings to those who have entered the TAP Guinness track,
17:20among them is there is PPRE,
17:22then there is GMAS, TOBA, WIFI, ADMR, MKAP, DLD,
17:29then there is BIKE, WOTON, HUMI, and also DOO SS.
17:34Brand, NES, GOLF, DART, NICL, PDPP, GRIA, HELI, SNLK,
17:41there is SAMSAM that has entered the TAP Losers track,
17:44so far it has entered the level of 7,300,
17:47what is your analysis?
17:50Yes, I think,
17:51I really hope that the IHSG can strengthen to the level of 7,354,
17:57that is the closest high price,
17:59that is in July,
18:00if this price position can be surpassed by the IHSG,
18:03I believe that the IHSG will only be able to strengthen for the next few days,
18:09if today it is unable to strengthen,
18:12again, these are several attempts that have been done for the IHSG,
18:16so the sentiment at the moment is still quite interesting,
18:20because it has gradually strengthened our IHSG position,
18:23hopefully later the sentiment that happens in the middle of this week from the US
18:27is able to give a positive push for our IHSG to rise above 7,354.
18:33Okay, interesting,
18:34those are some of the analyses that have been conveyed by Mr. Bima,
18:37hopefully this can be a reference for the market players to carry out their investment strategy today.
18:42Mr. Bima, thank you for joining us at MarketBus,
18:45good luck to all of you, see you soon.
18:48Good morning, Mr. Bikin.