IHSG +0,09% ke 7.819,00 di sesi I Selasa (17/9). Secara intraday IHSG kembali berhasil New ATH di 7.854 dari sebelumnya di 7.833 Kamis lalu. Teknologi +2,16% GOTO +6,56%. Konsumen non primer +1,62% MAPI +8,13%. Infrastruktur -0,74% BREN -5,31%. Saham emas kompak naik ditengah harga komoditas kembali tembus New ATH dan BRIS cetak rekor tertinggi baru dalam 3 bulan terakhir di Rp3.180.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us.
00:02In this segment, we will review how the trade is going today.
00:06And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 D8788 D3723
00:14as shown on your television screen later.
00:17And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Joshua Marcius,
00:20a technical analyst at Philips Securities Indonesia.
00:23We will go straight to him.
00:25Mr. Joshua, good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:27Good afternoon, sir.
00:29Thank you for taking the time to be on IDX Channel, Mr. Joshua.
00:35I'm doing well.
00:37And today, the Indekargasamkabungan, after a long weekend,
00:41the interesting thing is that the support level is 78.
00:45It is still able to be maintained,
00:47even though it happened to move in the red zone earlier.
00:50And the limited power happened when the Indekargasamkabungan
00:54was able to reach its highest intraday level in a long time.
00:59Your analysis, especially in anticipation of the results of the FONC debate
01:03on Thursday, West Indonesia time.
01:06If we look at it, the market is still positive about the debate
01:11which has lost its hawkish attitude,
01:13tend to want to make a flower-type cut.
01:16And I hope, even if we look at it,
01:18there are those who expect up to 50 BPS flower-type cut.
01:22There is a 60% chance that the market predicts it.
01:27And if we look at the ISK itself,
01:29with the spread of the flower-type that will be getting bigger,
01:32this is also a positive news that can boost the ISK.
01:35If we look at it now, the potential can still be strengthened.
01:38Maybe if we look at the Ibu Naci data first, 2618 in 7950
01:42and moving above the support area of 7600,
01:45the strengthening potential can still continue.
01:48In the short term, what will the scenario be like, Mr. Joshua?
01:51When the results of the FONC debate,
01:54as you mentioned earlier,
01:56between 25 and 50 BPS.
01:59Is there any difference in this matter?
02:03Will there be any impact when the debate only cuts 25 BPS
02:07compared to cutting the flower-type at 50 BPS in this matter?
02:14If we look at it, the most impact is in the short term.
02:17If we look at it in the future,
02:19we can see that if this flower-type cut will continue,
02:24maybe even further, especially with the PMI continuing to decline.
02:27For the ISK, the most impact is just a little.
02:30There may be a brief correction near the area of 7725 or 7650
02:33if the cut is at 25 BPS.
02:36But if the cut continues,
02:38especially the flower-type cut,
02:40usually the market will continue to appreciate or increase the price.
02:44Okay, not only some basis points will be cut,
02:47but also the continuation of the flower-type cut
02:50until the end of the year or not.
02:52When this scenario occurs,
02:54many parties have previously estimated
02:57that the PMI has increased significantly.
03:01You said there was a chance for a correction,
03:04but more in the short term.
03:06Where will this go, Mr. Joshua?
03:08From 7650 to 7725, it's still okay.
03:16The trend is still okay.
03:18The price movement is above the 20-day average,
03:22so the trend is still okay.
03:24What is your target at the end of the year?
03:26The target at the end of the year is around 8200.
03:308200, right?
03:32Yes, that's right.
03:34The stocks that will be cut later,
03:37are they sectors and stocks that are quite sensitive to the flower-type cut?
03:42The biggest impact is usually on the property and the bank.
03:48If the bank's cash flow is getting smaller,
03:51and the loan is getting lower,
03:54the flower-type cut will be more incentive to make a loan.
03:58Okay, how does it affect technology, Mr. Joshua?
04:02In the last few days, from a sectoral point of view,
04:04it seems that technology is still leading.
04:07In terms of power, there is Gotoh,
04:09which today also reached its highest level in the last three months.
04:13The technology sector is also sensitive to the flower-type cut.
04:18Moreover, most of the technology sector has not yet produced honey,
04:22which is still in a negative condition.
04:25If we know in Indonesia, it's mostly like that.
04:28It is also possible that there are still loans for operations,
04:32so that it will also affect technology,
04:35which can be a positive outlook.
04:37Okay, let's just analyze it technically, sir.
04:40I want to go to Gotoh first.
04:42Today, the intraday is 67 rupiah per share,
04:45closing at 65 rupiah per share.
04:48Recommendations, then support and resistance for Gotoh.
04:51For Gotoh itself, it actually has a positive sign,
04:56because it comes out of the level 58 consolidation area.
04:59The potential, it seems, can still be strengthened to level 70,
05:03as long as it doesn't go beyond the fairly large volume area,
05:07below 55, or in the 55 support area.
05:10If it is not passed, it is still quite okay,
05:12it can reach the 70 rupiah area.
05:14Recommendations, sir?
05:16It tends to be able to rise,
05:19so the condition of the buy-on weakness is quite interesting,
05:21as long as it still can't pass the 55 area.
05:24Okay.
05:25Just for short-term trading, for Gotoh, for the position?
05:28Yes.
05:29It tends to be short-term trading.
05:31Okay.
05:32Today's closing at 65 rupiah per share,
05:34strengthening at 6.56%, the highest intraday.
05:37For Gotoh, it is at 67 rupiah per share.
05:40In addition to technology, you also mentioned earlier,
05:43banking will also be affected.
05:48I want to go to BMRI first.
05:50Mr. Joshua, today it rose the highest, above 2%, 74.25.
05:55Intraday today was 74.50.
05:57What is the analysis for BMRI?
05:59If you look at BMRI, the bullish pattern is quite strong,
06:03if we look at it.
06:04Even if we look at the increase rate,
06:06it is the same from the form of swing high, swing low,
06:09which continues to rise,
06:10it is likely that it will continue to strengthen
06:12to the level of 7,500 resistance,
06:15as long as it moves above 6.950.
06:17For this, the trend can still improve.
06:21At today's closing level, there is no problem,
06:23or waiting for a health correction first for BMRI?
06:27At today's closing level, I think it's still quite okay.
06:31Okay.
06:327.425 strengthens at 2.06%,
06:35the strength room range is still wide open for BMRI,
06:40and again, the investment decision
06:42is still in the hands of the shareholder, ITX Channel.
06:45Okay, let's move on to BBCA.
06:47Today, the highest intraday is 10,500,
06:51strengthens at 0.72%.
06:53Compared to other big cap banks,
06:55BBCA is still able to survive at the top level
06:58when other big cap banks strengthen significantly,
07:02but BBCA gradually, quietly,
07:05the strength seems to continue.
07:09Mr. Joshua, what is the analysis for BBCA?
07:12And the opportunity for a new all-time high again?
07:15If we look at it, BBCA is still in the 30s,
07:18which continues to bounce there,
07:19showing that the trend movement is still okay,
07:22just like BMRI, the banks are actually strengthening.
07:26For BBCA itself, if you look at the potential,
07:29even though it is still in the same holding level, 10.5%,
07:32especially if it breaks through that level,
07:34it is likely to continue to 10,750,
07:37because it moves, it will not pass 10.125.
07:39Okay, today's intraday is at 10,350,
07:43the lowest level for BBCA.
07:45We move to BRIS, sir.
07:47Today, it released quite fast.
07:49It was able to break through to the highest level
07:52in the last three months, at 31.80%.
07:55What is the analysis for BRIS?
07:57For BRIS itself, we can see that
08:00its breakthrough resistance is quite okay.
08:02Just today, if I'm not mistaken,
08:04it has passed around level 2,900.
08:07So, if you look at it now,
08:09it is still standing above that.
08:11Maybe it can continue to 3,550,
08:13the previous historical resistance that has been achieved,
08:15and it has not yet passed the support level at 2,540.
08:21Is it supported by the volume side, sir, for BRIS?
08:24Yes, the volume is also higher than today,
08:28than the volume on the trade.
08:30We can also see from the indicator volume, which is very spike.
08:32Okay, there is a chance to 31.80% again
08:35for the short term, with a fairly thin position
08:38in the closing of the second session today.
08:40Is there a possibility for 31.80%?
08:44Okay, analysis from several banks,
08:46which today also became supporters
08:48of the Samkabungan family industry.
08:50From energy, it is also quite interesting, Mr. Joshua.
08:53The price of gold has again reached its highest level
08:56in the long term.
08:58Then, gold producers,
09:01today, some of them were weak,
09:03then it became significant.
09:05Antam is strong at 3.37%.
09:07From your analysis,
09:09where is the direction of gold movement,
09:11in the short and medium term?
09:13There are also many speculations, sir,
09:15when from the Fed, it only breaks the trend
09:17of 25 basis points,
09:19with the expectation of 50 basis points,
09:21the price of gold will be corrected first.
09:23What will your analysis be like?
09:26Yes, if for example 25 basis points,
09:28it is not below the market expectations
09:31that there is a start at 50 basis points,
09:33it is possible that it will be corrected first,
09:36but the bullish trend will still continue.
09:38For example, 25.30 first,
09:40then maybe gold will continue to strengthen.
09:43As I see, gold can still continue to strengthen
09:45and maybe form a new new alfiharm
09:47to level 2700.
09:49Okay, let's just go to Antam, sir.
09:51The analysis today is strong at 3.37%.
09:54At 13.80, the closing position.
09:58If you look at Antam,
10:00Antam is strengthening.
10:02As I said earlier, it is strengthening.
10:04If you look at the strength of Antam,
10:06it tends to be limited because the trend now
10:08is still a bearish trend from the ABW pattern
10:10formed at the level of resistance 1525, right?
10:13So below that, the strength is limited
10:16to the level close to 1425
10:20to the level of 1430.
10:23Okay, there is Rasha from Jakarta
10:25asking about Antam.
10:27Do you want to have a long term?
10:29How is the movement? Support and resistance?
10:31Can it be included this week?
10:33And at what level?
10:35If Antam, I still tend to wait
10:37for it to pass the ABW price first,
10:39at 1525.
10:41If it passes, it will be interesting.
10:43Okay, there is Rasha in Jakarta for Antam
10:45and earlier also a technical analysis.
10:47More details for Antam and again
10:49the decision to invest is still in the hands
10:51of the viewers of IDX Channel.