MLB Futures: NL WildCard + AL West Odds and Best Bets
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00:00We turn our attention now to Major League Baseball, and we welcome on one of our favorite
00:08guests from Just Baseball Media, the play-by-play voice of the AAA affiliate of the Pittsburgh
00:13Pirates.
00:14That's the Indianapolis Indians.
00:15It is Jack McMullin, live right here on this Wednesday on The Early Line.
00:20Jack, we appreciate the time.
00:21Thank you for being here, as always, to set the stage for the final month and a half of
00:26regular season action around the bigs.
00:29Why not, man?
00:30We're dialing back on baseball, right?
00:31We get ready for the postseason, and I follow college football.
00:34This is great.
00:36Why is Dan Lanning going to win a national title this year?
00:38Do you guys know?
00:39Hmm.
00:40Because Oregon is really, really, really good.
00:43Offensive line solid.
00:44Dylan Gabriel, under Will Stein, the OC in Eugene, expected to put up ludicrous numbers.
00:50Yeah.
00:51Yeah.
00:52I'm with you.
00:53So, I'm ready to talk baseball.
00:54Donnie could have known that as well.
00:55Jack, are you still calling games at Ball State?
00:59Occasionally.
01:00Yeah.
01:01So, I'll be there.
01:02I'll be there sporadically.
01:03Our guy, Carson Steele, had a really good showing for the Chiefs during preseason.
01:04You guys watch any of that?
01:05He was awesome.
01:06Scored a touchdown.
01:07Got me to my first half over.
01:08It was huge.
01:09PRS, I know you're in it.
01:10Yeah.
01:11But, by the way, the Dan Lanning comment, I was actually going to put in there, Jack.
01:12Like, who does he actually coach for just to get the segment going?
01:13But, I figured I'd just sit back and let the pros talk about it.
01:14So, there you go.
01:15So, I'm ready to talk baseball.
01:16Donnie could have known that as well.
01:17Jack, are you still calling games at Ball State?
01:18Yeah.
01:19I'm with you.
01:20Jack, an inside joke here on the early line.
01:39A long time ago, we played a segment of who he coached for around the NBA with the Coach
01:44of the Year favorites.
01:46Great comedy with Donnie Rightside.
01:47We could probably do that with MLB managers for me, and I would have a difficult time.
01:52I'll just say that.
01:53Do you know who Pat Murphy is?
01:56Yeah, of course.
01:57Milwaukee Brewers might win NL Coach of the Year.
02:00Good.
02:01Good manager.
02:02You're not Coach of the Year, Ben.
02:03We're on to a new course.
02:04There you go.
02:05Very good.
02:06Very.
02:07That was very good, Jack.
02:08By the way, Pat Murphy and his Milwaukee Brewers have lost both of their opening two games
02:16this week in their four-game set against the L.A. Dodgers, managed by Dave Roberts.
02:22And what a return it has been for Mookie Betts, a home run and three RBIs in his first game
02:27since the middle of June.
02:28On Monday, a couple of base docs yesterday, and Shohei Otani stays hot at the dish.
02:34A 7-2 victory for the Dodgers, Jack.
02:36They've won eight of their last 10.
02:38What has impressed you about L.A. so far in this set against the Brew Crew?
02:42Honestly, it's their resilience and their ability to get healthy on August 12th and
02:48August 13th.
02:49You know what I'm saying?
02:50Like, they...
02:51I said this on the Just Baseball show earlier this week.
02:54I didn't think there was a world that I would ever feel bad for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
02:58But we hit a point where I started to feel bad for the L.A. Dodgers.
03:02With no Mookie Betts, with no Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the guy that they just paid $325 million to
03:08this offseason.
03:09They've missed Clayton Kershaw pretty much the entirety of the year.
03:13They've missed Walker Buehler for a huge chunk of the year.
03:15Tyler Glasnow had an I.L. stint.
03:17I was like, what does this team need to do?
03:19Roostaw Gratterall, I think, threw eight pitches this year.
03:23He came back from the injured list.
03:25He goes right back on the injured list.
03:27It has been brutal, health-wise, for the L.A. Dodgers.
03:31They're as healthy as they've been.
03:32And guess what?
03:33Buehler going today, Flaherty going tomorrow.
03:36The Dodgers are starting to look like the Dodgers that we were promised, albeit a little
03:40bit different because I did not think that Jack Flaherty would be one of the huge names
03:44for the L.A. Dodgers in the back half of 2024.
03:48But that's baseball, man.
03:49Things formulate like this over time.
03:51I thought last night's game was the perfect example of what the Dodgers should do to a
03:57guy like that in the Brewers rotation.
03:59And it also embodied my concerns with the Milwaukee Brewers.
04:03Collin Wray, I know he's been pretty solid this year, a load of mid threes.
04:09But they teed off on him, man.
04:11And it was what?
04:12The final line on him was six innings, ten hits, seven runs.
04:15That's what the Dodgers should be doing.
04:17And that validated my concerns on the Brewers' side.
04:19Jack, how the West was won, boy, that is going to be a story we are going to tell because
04:24at the beginning of the season, we expected a lot of teams to try to fight and scratch
04:27and claw with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
04:29Midway through the season, looked like it was a runaway.
04:32Not so fast.
04:33That wild card race heating up because of the West.
04:35The Diamondbacks, five straight games they've won.
04:37Winners of nine of their last ten.
04:39The Padres, winners of nine of their last ten.
04:41Won two games in a row.
04:42They lead the wild card and also the Braves, still in the mix there.
04:46Mets, Giants, Cardinals and Reds.
04:48First talk to us about that race in the NOS, keeping the Dodgers on their P's and Q's.
04:52But also, that wild card race is really tough.
04:55Are there any odd men out that you're looking for in that race?
04:58Like the Reds, the Cardinals, the Giants that you don't think might be able to cross that
05:01finish line?
05:02Yeah, I don't see the Reds doing it now just because I kind of doubt their offensive
05:08ability.
05:09You know, five through nine.
05:10I think their front three can be formidable.
05:11Elie De La Cruz is one of the best players in baseball.
05:13I view the Reds as one of the odd men out.
05:17I would say the Cardinals kind of fit that billing too, just because I doubt, you know,
05:23that starting pitching over the course of the final six, seven weeks of the regular
05:27season here.
05:28The Giants, man, I'm not counting them out just yet.
05:31Blake Snell is throwing like one of the better pitchers in all the Major League Baseball.
05:35They just got Robbie Ray back.
05:36We know who Logan Webb is.
05:38They can pitch their way into the conversation.
05:41They already have.
05:42And frankly, they can stay there by starting pitching.
05:45You know who I'm really worried about is the Atlanta Braves.
05:49This offense wins.
05:51It's August 14th.
05:52I know that they hold on to that final wildcard spot, but you go piece by piece in the Braves
05:59and the Mets lineup.
06:01It is a lot closer than it should be.
06:04And do the Braves have the edge?
06:06To me, I guess like it helps that Marcelo Zuna is doing what he's doing.
06:09But at the end of the day, I was expecting a heck of a lot more from Matt Olsen this
06:14year.
06:15I was expecting a heck of a lot more from Orlando Arcea this year.
06:18And Olsen, relatively speaking, has been underperforming.
06:20Arcea has just been brutal in that nine spot in the batting order.
06:25Like the Braves are really starting to, I don't know, up my heart rate a little bit,
06:30up my blood pressure with them.
06:33They have a two game advantage.
06:35Was Atlanta at this moment over the New York Mets?
06:37The Braves have won both of their games in San Francisco to start this week in 10 innings
06:42by a single run.
06:44The Mets have dropped four in a row.
06:46The opener last night against Oakland swept over the weekend by Seattle.
06:50It is a wild wildcard race here down the stretch of this MLB season.
06:55Jack, back to the Dodgers, but also in the race, not for a wildcard spot or even a divisional
07:00title.
07:02The number one overall seed in the National League.
07:05The Dodgers have now overtaken Philadelphia because of this recent good form and the Phil's
07:10on a slide since the All-Star break.
07:1371 and 49, the record for LA.
07:15A game and a half in front of the Phil's who have lost four in a row and are 69 and 50.
07:22Philadelphia blanked yesterday at home by the Miami Marlins.
07:25Jack, when all is said and done, will it be Philly or LA with the top overall seed in
07:31the National League postseason?
07:33I wish I could give you a reason as to why it's going to be one of them, but frankly,
07:38I have no idea.
07:39The Phillies have been sliding like this and you say, Oh, like what's been the issue for
07:43the Philadelphia Phillies?
07:44I don't know.
07:46Like this is, this is a game played every day over six months.
07:49So, you know, sometimes you're going to run into bad stretches on paper.
07:53You look at this team, there is no hole on the Philadelphia Phillies roster, which makes
07:58me think that the Phillies will be the team that ends up with the best record in the National
08:02League.
08:03But again, you can't really understand the slide.
08:07The vibe is clearly not right with Philly right now.
08:10And that was a brutal weekend to watch in Arizona this past weekend.
08:14So I'm going to lean the Dodgers just because they have that, you know, influx of healthy
08:20talent of superstar talent.
08:22It's to have Mookie Betts back.
08:24It's really nice to have Mookie Betts back in right field too.
08:28I feel like as we trend right now, I think the Dodgers may end up a couple games ahead
08:34of the Phillies when the Philly slide does eventually stop.
08:38And it might just be too little too late and they keep, you know, leveling up at the same
08:42time.
08:43So if I were to guess the Dodgers by a couple games, but there's no, you know, firm reasoning
08:47for me as to why.
08:50Checking on the FanDuel Sportsbook right now to see who is the favorite team to have that
08:55number one overall seed in the NL.
08:57That would be the Dodgers now moving in front at a minus 210 number.
09:01Still LA and Philadelphia, the two shortest prices to win a National League pennant.
09:06The Dodgers, the favorites at plus 155.
09:08The Phil's that second best number, less than a half dollar behind at two to one.
09:13Keep an eye on the Arizona Diamondbacks, the rainy National League pennant winners and
09:17the San Diego Padres moving up that board more with Jack live right here on this Wednesday
09:22on the early line.
09:24Live right here on the early line on Wednesday.
09:27All across MLB, we continue to go and Jack McMullin joins us for a second consecutive
09:33segment and a third after that to forecast a Wednesday slate in MLB Jack, plenty of compelling
09:40races down the home stretch of this MLB regular season and in one of the divisional races
09:46that is tight.
09:47We focus on the American League West.
09:49The Astros have won seven straight games.
09:52The Mariners got clobbered yesterday in Detroit, 15 to one.
09:55The Tigers putting on a pounding.
09:58So now a game and a half advantage for Houston atop the American League West.
10:03They are the odds on favorites at a minus 280 number to win the division.
10:09How do you compare these two teams right now near the top of the division, the Astros and
10:14the Mariners?
10:15Hey, before we get into it, let's pour one out for George Kirby, the Mariners right hander
10:20who just had a torpedoed yesterday.
10:23Brutal.
10:24I mean, we were geared up for Tarek Skoobel, George Kirby round to Kirby.
10:29The line on him was what three and two thirds, 13 hits, 11 earned ERA jump from 313 to 373.
10:37So absolutely brutal.
10:39Like it stinks that that guy has that on his season because he was thrown so darn well.
10:44But Ben, to answer your question, I really struggle to see how the Mariners offense drastically
10:53at the deadline.
10:54And I like the addition of Randy Rosarena.
10:57I do.
10:58I know that you have the additional year of control of Randy Rosarena after this year.
11:02So I liked it at the moment and I still like it.
11:05I like that influx of talent.
11:08Justin Turner was a fine get like it just feels like a B minus C plus get, hey, you
11:13got a little bit better, but that isn't a lineup altering get.
11:19I doubt this Mariners team's ability to score runs over the course of a given week and the
11:26Astros.
11:27I don't have that doubt.
11:28Jordan Alvarez should absolutely be in the conversation with an Aaron judge, with a Shohei
11:32Otani when it comes to best hitters in all of baseball, Jordan has been a menace and
11:38that Astros lineup is like deep enough to get it done, man.
11:42Not to mention Justin Verlander is on rehab.
11:44He just looks sharp in double A as well.
11:48You pair Frambois Valdez and Hunter Brown and Justin Verlander at the top.
11:53It's not the Mariners technically.
11:55It's not a Gilbert Castillo, Kirby Wu-Miller mix that has made the Mariners the best starting
12:00rotation in all of baseball, but they paid a lot of money for that bullpen and who knows
12:06if that bullpen will blow it or not in Houston.
12:09They paid a lot of money for that lineup and that lineup is just objectively better than
12:13Seattle.
12:14I'd say it's the Astros and they're not looking back at this point, but I mean, they're both
12:18playing good ball right now.
12:19Who's going to slip up first and I don't know, I guess 15 to one in the seventh inning would
12:24be a slip up.
12:25But you know, again, this is baseball, you got a blank slate every single morning.
12:31It's been pretty wild Jack to watch the West because we were right, at least I was.
12:35I was writing off the Astros about a month and a half ago saying this team is never going
12:38to get it together and here they are in first place.
12:41So my question is not with the Astros or the Mariners fighting for it, but what happened
12:44to the Texas Rangers?
12:45Jack, this isn't like a team ran away with it as the best team in baseball and just can't
12:49chase them down.
12:50This is a very winnable division for a team that won the World Series last year and just
12:54never got it together.
12:55It looked like they were starting to peak.
12:57Now they find themselves nine and a half games back.
13:00What happened to the Rangers this year?
13:02You're asking the question that was making me start to go gray and it's probably genetics.
13:07It's probably stress, but I've got some gray hairs in there.
13:10I'm telling you, man, I was saying, oh, the Rangers are going to be in it, oh, the Rangers
13:15are going to be in it until a week and a half, two weeks ago and I was like, I think we're
13:19out of time at this point, which really stinks for the reigning World Series champ.
13:25It's nice that they're getting a little healthier in the starting rotation and I just saw the
13:28live batting practice that Jacob deGrom threw.
13:31I saw the first pitch was 99 miles an hour.
13:33Welcome back, Mr. deGrom, but Tyler Malley's return is great, yada, yada.
13:39They had so many guys in 2023 have career years offensively that are just not close
13:44to matching it right now and, you know, they were dealt the injury bug with a Josh Young,
13:48but a Leone Tavares had a career year last year, a Jonah Heim had a career year last
13:54year.
13:55There were so many guys in that lineup that were performing like the best seven hitter
13:59in baseball, the best nine hitter in baseball, the best five hitter in baseball.
14:04And now, yeah, you have Seager and Simeon, but at the end of the day, like Adolis Garcia
14:09is not even the Adolis Garcia of 2023.
14:12So for me, it's really like last year was a perfect storm.
14:17And this year, I don't think this is the realistic, you know, baseline for the Texas Rangers,
14:23but I think it's an underperformance of the Texas Rangers.
14:26I don't think we saw the baseline of the Texas Rangers last year.
14:30I think we saw the 100th percentile outcome, and that resulted in a World Series, which
14:34is awesome.
14:35Yeah.
14:36When you look at Texas now, 10 games below 500, 55 and 65, nine and a half games out
14:44of that American League West top spot occupied by their in-state foe in Houston.
14:49Jack, you weren't alone thinking at the end of July, maybe Texas was starting to put things
14:53together.
14:54They had won five straight, capped off with a series sweep over the White Sox.
14:58That's good.
14:59It's what you're supposed to do on July 25th.
15:01And they were 51 and 52, just a game below 500.
15:05They have lost 13 of 17 since that point.
15:09But it's not the reigning World Series champs and the Rangers.
15:12It's not a team that's reached the ALCS seven straight years in the Astros that has the
15:16best record in the American League.
15:18It's not the Yankees.
15:19It's not the Orioles, despite being the two frontrunners to win the pennant.
15:23It's the Cleveland Guardians, 71 and 49, the best record in the AL.
15:28Junkenzie Noel, three home runs and two games against the Cubbies to win it yesterday for
15:34the Guardians.
15:35Jack, what is Cleveland's ceiling come October baseball?
15:38That's a great question.
15:39Steven Vogt, by the way, you nailed it, manager of the Cleveland Guardians.
15:42You nailed that during the break.
15:44Props to you, Ben.
15:46Their ceiling is fascinating to me because they've had starting pitcher questions all
15:50season long.
15:51I was calling Tristan McKenzie starts in AAA this year.
15:55That shouldn't be happening with a Tristan McKenzie.
15:58Don't forget Shane Bieber looked amazing like three times through the rotation.
16:02And then his season ends with with surgery, with elbow surgery.
16:05So, you know, as for the Guardians, I understand the price point here at plus 650.
16:11I totally get it because they are not the heavyweight that the Yankees and the Orioles
16:15and the Astros are.
16:17But at the end of the day, they've scrapped their way to the best record in the American
16:21League.
16:22Who's to say that they can't make some magic happen in a, you know, five game series in
16:27a seven game series?
16:28And it helps to have that guy Big Christmas in the middle of that lineup.
16:31I love watching John Kenzie and Oilman.
16:34Listen, Donny, right side, a huge believer and backer in the Guardians.
16:39He is fired up for Cleveland come playoff baseball.