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00:00A full Major League Baseball card on this Tuesday. And what a marquee midweek
00:06matchup we have in the city of brotherly love in Philadelphia. Donny Wright sides
00:12full attention on the bank. Citizens Bank ballpark in Philly for the opener
00:17tonight between the Phillies and the Dodgers. The two best teams in the
00:22National League. The two best records. The two shortest prices to win the
00:26pennant. Two of the three best numbers to win the World Series. Are we seeing an
00:31NLCS preview right here, right now, a week out from the All-Star break. The
00:37Phils with Zach Wheeler on the bump. A slight home favorite tonight at minus
00:41142 against the LA Dodgers. Nine is the total. Again, DRS, I said I will check the
00:47numbers. I haven't done that just yet. I will right now. The Dodgers rarely booked
00:52as an underdog. So it shows what Philadelphia is capable of. What do you
00:58expect tonight for the first game of this midweek series between the Dodgers
01:02and the Phillies? It's Zach Wheeler versus Bobby Miller. If you're the
01:06Phillies, you got to have this game. You had the day off yesterday. Here to sort of
01:09decompress. We're expected to get Kyle Schwerber back in that lineup at the top
01:13here. And he was on a mission before getting injured against the Miami
01:16Marlins. Now also, it has the anticipated lineup today, Bryce Harper. He's
01:20eligible to come off the I-L. Most people don't think he's going to come
01:24off the I-L for tonight's game, but Kyle Schwerber certainly should be able to do
01:27that. That's going to help. Because the one thing that we do know about Bobby
01:30Miller, last 30 days of Major League Baseball, not a very good pitcher,
01:33particularly against left-handed batters. So if you want a nice soft
01:37landing spot for Kyle Schwerber to come back at home with 91-degree
01:41temperatures and a double-digit wind blowing out the dead center field, this
01:45is the night for Kyle Schwerber. The Phillies should get a good home start
01:49from Zach Wheeler. If we take a look at some of those betting splits that we
01:52like to take a look at. Today on the card, 24-25 pitchers, let's just say,
01:56are ranked here. Home starter Zach Wheeler is number two. How about this,
02:00Ben? If you take a look at his season so far, a 176 ERA at home for Zach
02:08Wheeler. He should be able to hold down those bats despite being in a hitter's
02:12ballpark, great hitting weather. He should be doing the job tonight. Bobby
02:16Miller, I don't think he can do that same job. The Phillies need this victory
02:19tonight because if they lose this one tonight and the Braves win and you burn
02:24Zach Wheeler and now you're gonna get better pitchers on the mound for the
02:27Dodgers and have them say, hey, maybe we should be at the top of the mountain now
02:31in the NL. The Phillies got to have this one tonight and I believe they get it
02:34done. A seven-and-a-half game lead still for the Phillies atop the National
02:39League East. A three-and-a-half game difference for the Phillies in front of
02:44LA for that top spot overall in the National League. Of course, in the
02:48extended postseason bracket that we have come October in MLB, the top two seeds
02:54earn an opening round by past the wild-card round into the division series.
02:59Donnie, when you look at the numbers for both of these teams, the Dodgers have the
03:03second-best record in the NL and yet remain the favorite. It's a plus 150. The
03:08Phillies the best record in the National League. All of Major League Baseball,
03:11second-best price to win the National League, second-best price to win the
03:16World Series. Is this the National League Championship Series that we will see
03:20come late October? Undoubtedly. Undoubtedly, it should be there. No
03:25question in my mind because let's be honest with ourselves. The Philadelphia
03:28Phillies weren't anticipating any devastating season-long injuries to
03:32happen. If they're healthy, they have the best starting staff and maybe the best
03:35one through nine lineup in Major League Baseball and a quality bullpen. The Los
03:39Angeles Dodgers, they're gonna get Mookie Betts back who might be the best player
03:42in Major League Baseball and they already have maybe the best player in
03:45Major League Baseball right now on their team in Shohei Ohtani and we do know the
03:50Dodgers have endless prospects and endless cash flow where if they want to
03:53pick up the two best pitchers at the trade deadline in Major League Baseball
03:57that would be available, they can do that as well. We're not too long off or we say
04:01Dodgers, how can you prove yourself at the deadline? I don't know. Max Scherzer
04:04and Trey Turner in their prime at one time, they have the ability to do that.
04:08Correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't Manny Machado a Los Angeles Dodger? It's insane
04:12how much talent that the Dodgers have had in the past just by making
04:17moves at the trade deadline. It is and they're probably gonna do it again if
04:23they feel it is necessary to maybe fill out that frontline starting staff to
04:29keep up with Philadelphia because that's where I give the edge to the Phil's at
04:33this moment. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Braves, third best price to win the
04:37National League pennant at plus $4.50, two bucks behind the Phil's, $3 behind
04:42LA, continue their series out in Arizona looking for their second consecutive win
04:48over the Diamondbacks, hoping for their fourth consecutive victory overall. We
04:53thought it was going to be Chris Sale yesterday. It is projected to be Chris
04:58Sale today, but with sale on the bump yesterday, it was a minus 1 96 price
05:04against the Diamondbacks because the starter not all that illustrious today.
05:07Zach Gallen gets the start for Arizona only minus 1 24. The updated number in
05:13favor of Atlanta. Yeah, by the way, it might be taking a look at an underdog
05:17shot here today on the Diamondbacks. How could you do that against Chris
05:19Sales? That gallon is a very good picture and I'm still not trustworthy
05:22of that Atlanta Braves lineup and also maybe just looking at an under the total
05:27might be the best route. You take a look at that game last night, which we
05:29didn't have two spectacular pitchers on both sides. That game was 3 to 1
05:33entering into the ninth inning. That's a stone cold under that got tied up in a
05:37couple extra runs and extras push that one over the total. I don't think that's
05:41actually gonna happen in this game. I would look towards the under and also a
05:44slight underdog price on Zach Allen at home in a bounce back performance here
05:48against the Atlanta Braves plus 1 0 6. Now that updated number on Arizona 7.5
05:54is the total. Of course, they went to extras yesterday. 11 innings to go over
05:59the game. Total of 88 in a hook after Chris Sale was bumped. Sale has been
06:04sensational this year, by the way, just truly outstanding. Almost a career
06:09Renaissance. Or do we say Renaissance here? Renaissance for Chris Sale this
06:14year in the a T L because of what he has done for the Braves 11 and 3 with a 2
06:2071 era. Second best price on sale to win the National League Cy Young Award at
06:26this moment. Donny Sales allowed just one earn run in each of his last three
06:31starts. Why the total 7.5 in Phoenix today? Yeah, no, it is. It's a good
06:36point that you bring up here. But let's also bring up the point of the last 30
06:39days. This has been a very good hitting team for the Arizona Diamondbacks
06:42against left handed pitching. We'll see if that plays out. I still don't think
06:45what's that mean? A lot of hits two runs, three runs off of Chris Sale. So I
06:48still do think that this game does stay under the total. But we do need a
06:51pronunciation here because it is Renaissance in the United States, I
06:55guess in Scotland, maybe the way that they pronounce the country club name
06:59will be different. We need an official ruling on that. So maybe we can get
07:02somebody behind the scenes to check that one out for us. It felt like Donny
07:06announcing the game tomorrow, the Wednesday semifinal in Copa America
07:10between Colombia and who would have what would have what would have what
07:16beautiful. That's my team Renaissance Golf Club, a renaissance for Chris Dale
07:20and more MLB breakdown snacks. The New York Yankees in the last month or so of
07:25Major League Baseball have been in a tailspin once the best in the bigs 50
07:30and 22 on June 14th, nearly 30 games above 500. They have lost 15 of their
07:37last 20. From that time, they in fact lost the weekend against their bitter
07:43rivals in AL East divisional foes the Boston Red Sox can the Yankees find
07:49their footing once again down in Florida in the drop against the Rays
07:53minus 130 the price for the Yanks as a slight road favorite although the line
07:58is now working minus 122 against the pinstripes today in the opener against
08:04the Rays eight is the over under will the Yankees DRS ahead of the all star
08:09break with just six games left until we get to the break start playing better
08:14baseball. They better start playing better baseball because this isn't like
08:18Hey, let's not let our lead dwindle here, Ben. It's not let us get behind
08:21five games before we get to the break when just a few short weeks ago, we were
08:25in full control of this division. But if we're taking a look at the pitching
08:29matchup over the last 60 days, Ben, how about this? 103 and 103 X fit minus
08:34numbers for each pitcher here, Carlos Rodan and Ryan Pepio on the mound today.
08:39If we are taking a look at some of those numbers, which are troubling for
08:42Rodan, the one thing that we do like here is this game is not being played
08:45in the Bronx for Rodan, where it might be 90 degrees with the wind blowing out.
08:49You're playing at the trop, which is one of the better pitchers ballparks in
08:52Major League Baseball. Having said that, look at this last 30 days. 122
08:55batters. He's faced a 279 ISO in a 4 26 weighted on base percentage combined
09:00and also both lefties and righties pounding him as a pitcher, which is
09:05tough because you take a look at the lineup. It's not very good for Tampa
09:08Bay, but they've done well against left handed pitching with a couple guys
09:12here. Ben Yandy Diaz, Randy Rosarania, Isaac Paredes and Jose Siri crushing
09:17left handed pitching over the past month. Flip it over to the New York
09:20Yankees. Of course, we have the steady players. You take a look at Ryan Pepio
09:24over the last 30 days. 51 batters. He's faced as a right handed pitcher against
09:27lefties. Ah, 279 ISO in a 4 29 weighted on base percentage. So then you would
09:33look at Ben Rice at the top of Atlanta. Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Austin Wells
09:37of some of those guys that you want to put in the mix here for RBI
09:40opportunities. And certainly you're not gonna leave out Aaron judge who, no
09:43matter lefty or righty pitchers, he's been crushing them. But that offense
09:46for me really has to turn up. It's not a great place for them to turn up. This
09:50is a true coin flip and the Yankees really need a victory. Maybe if you're
09:54looking at saying, okay, both of these pictures, even though it's a pitching
09:57environment here can be hit here. The expert minus numbers slightly over
10:01above average. Two of these lineups making some sense here. Maybe an over
10:05makes sense, but I can't just say the Yankees need it. They have to win here.
10:08They haven't shown me much. You've been over the past week, week and a half.
10:12No, they certainly have not. The Yanks a road favorite, but now three games
10:17back of Baltimore for the top spot in the American League East. And oh, by
10:21the way, they will end the first half or at least the part of the season prior
10:25to the all star break against Baltimore in Baltimore inside Camden Yards this
10:31weekend before the all star break starts on Monday. Speaking of those
10:36O's there in Camden, they're feeling pretty good and they're a minus 1 54
10:41favorite today to start off their midweek set against the Chicago Cubs.
10:45What do you like today in the charm city? Yeah, this isn't setting up all
10:49that well for the Chicago Cubs right now. Certainly not playing great
10:51baseball, but if you're just going one through nine on each roster that's
10:54supposed to be in the starting lineup tonight, it's by a mile. The Baltimore
10:58Orioles. If you take a look at Jamison Tyone, he actually has some pretty
11:01good statistics on the season and pretty particularly here been over the
11:04past 30 days, 125 batters. He's faced a 1 26 ISO and a 2 50 weighted on base
11:10percentage. Why? He's been filthy against left handed batters, but
11:13struggling just a bit against righties and you got some pretty good power
11:16bats. But having said that, the one thing that you typically like about the
11:20orders and why they're so good at the plate is a lot of left handed batters
11:23and a lot of switch hitters to go up against those right handed pitchers.
11:27Just take a look at the first four guys in that lineup. Gunner Henderson,
11:30Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Ryan O'Hearn will be all lefties
11:33followed by Westbrook, who's a righty. Then you jump right back to Kirstad
11:37there as a lefty and also still in that lineup. Cedric Mullins in the eight
11:40hole. This is a predominantly left handed lineup. When I just told you
11:44that Jamison Tyone has been filthy against left handed batters. Look at
11:48the temperature stuff. Here's what stuff I just told you about Philadelphia.
11:50Almost identical conditions been 91 degrees at first pitch, double digit
11:55winds blowing out in a hitter's ballpark. But I look at this game to
11:58myself and say, I don't know what I'm getting out of the Cubs to the plate.
12:01I know I'm gonna get decent at bats for the Orioles, maybe an under. They
12:04need 10 to hit that total. Maybe it stays under the 9.5 here.
12:08We had a big time under yesterday in Detroit. The Tigers watch out one of
12:13the hottest teams in MLB winners of four in a row. They knocked off the
12:17A. L. S. Best team yesterday. The Guardians Cleveland now 56 33 a half
12:22game behind Baltimore for that best record. The O's 57 33 in the
12:28American League won nothing. Yesterday was the final as the Tigers were
12:32victorious today. The total 8.5 and the Guardians a road favorite in the
12:37Motor City once again. Now we turn our attention from basketball back to the
12:42baseball diamond. A full Tuesday card around MLB D. R. S. We talked about
12:47this game. We showed the odds early for the matchup in the Motor City between
12:52the Guardians and the Tigers. One zip. That was the victory yesterday for
12:56Detroit. Four straight wins for the Tigers, and they scored the lone run of
13:00the game on a throwing error that allowed Jake Rogers to cross home plate
13:05and give the Tigers the victory. What might we see today in the Motor City?
13:10You better see some offense here for the Cleveland Guardians. You take a
13:13look at Kenta Maeda, certainly not one of those pitches that you look into
13:15back on the bump. Now granted, over the past 30 days, he has been a little bit
13:19better than the full season schedule. If we take a look at his full season,
13:23Ben, 277 batters. He's faced a 2 26 ice on a 3 78 weighted on base
13:27percentage combined. That's not very good. If we take a look at him and just
13:31go with some of those home splits that he has, it's been an average season for
13:35him. A 3 71 era, which isn't bad, but a 4.5 plus number here on his ex fifth
13:41number. So we should get more than zero runs today for the Cleveland Guardians.
13:45I mean, come on now, Ben Lively on the opposite side, who's going to get the
13:48start here for the Guardians has some decent numbers, particularly against
13:52left handed batters over the past 60 days. Excuse me. 30 days, Ben and oh,
13:5669 waited on base for power number and a 2 75 weighted on base percentage
14:01here. They should win today. They should have won yesterday. But if
14:04Kenta Maeda goes five or six innings pitch with two run earns or less, that
14:08should be troubling here for the Guardians. But I don't think that
14:10happens. I think the bats wake up today for the Guardians and they put him
14:13away. A little Midwest rivalry matchup for a two game set under the arch. The
14:19show me state showdown in ST Louis, Missouri. It's the Cardinals hosting
14:24the Royals in ST Louis. A slight favorite for the opener of this two
14:28game midweek set today. Minus 1 18. That money line number seven and a half
14:33is the over under. What do you like in ST Louis? You take a look at Michael
14:38Wacko on the mound today or let me just go back here. Let's do it. Okay,
14:41let's start. Michael walking your Kansas City Royals. Here's the here's
14:44the issue. 70 degree temperatures, which again isn't freezing. But we
14:48look at the east coast. You've been 95 plus temperatures and wind blowing out
14:52rain in the forecast, which includes thunderstorms and also blowing in from
14:55left field. 15 mile an hour plus sustained winds. Not great for the ball
15:00to carry and walk over the past 30 days. Very good. Been a 1 33 Iso power
15:05number to weighted on base percentage of 2 75 through 68 batters. That's
15:09really, really good against the Cardinals lineup that has been okay as
15:13of late. If we take a look at the other side, how about Andrew Polante? 103
15:17batters been he's faced over the past 30 days. Get this in 0 96 Iso and a 2
15:2394 weighted on base percentage. And if we just take a look at lefty batters,
15:28since he's a righty pitcher and 0 65 Iso and a 2 40 weighted on base
15:32percentage. That's good. Now, granted, take a look at that Kansas City lineup
15:36against right handed pitching over the past month. They've been really good.
15:39Adam Frazier due to lead off tonight. Not so good. But after that, wit past
15:43Quintino Perez, Massey, Renfro, Melendez and Kyle Isbell, everybody
15:48above their Iso power number of 1 65, which is above average in Major League
15:52Baseball. That'll be interesting to watch. But if I'm just looking at walk
15:56on the mound on one side, Polante on the other side, wind blowing in with
15:59some rainy conditions and not all that hot out in Kansas City versus me ST
16:03Louis. Let's take a look at some of those unders today in that ballpark
16:07to Mizzou. We go and now out west we go to San Diego. The Padres, they have
16:12won 12 of their last 17 games. The Mariners opposite end of that coin.
16:18They have dropped nine of their last 13, holding on by the strings to a
16:23two game lead in the American League West. And yet the Mariners a road
16:27favorite today with the all star Logan Gilbert on the bump at a minus 1 38
16:32money line price. Total of 7.5 in Southern California. What's the
16:36breakdown between the ends of the Padres? We got a big mismatch on the
16:39mount here. Now, granted, you still need an offensive lineup to take care
16:43of that mismatch. We'll get to that in just a few moments here. But Logan
16:45Gilbert has been very good past 60 days. You take a look at a 3.75 era and
16:50equate that to a 3 65 X. Fifth number. He should be just fine in San Diego.
16:54A true pitcher's ballpark over the past 30 days. A 1 46 ISO and a 2 35 waited
16:59on base percentage. Flip it over quickly to Adam Mazer. He does nothing
17:02good right now. And the worst pitcher on the card last 60 days been a 7.52 era
17:08coupled with a 6.12 exit. Get out of town.
17:12More baseball breakdown than a best bet.
17:16For already like the fourth time this year, Blake Snell is back tonight in
17:21San Francisco for the Giants. This mic is going crazy right now. Blake Snell
17:25gets to start by the bay for the Giants against the Toronto Blue Jays. The
17:30overall record for Blake Snell this year in six total starts Owen three
17:35with a 951 era. He started the year in April, got shelled in three outings,
17:4215 earned runs, missed a month till the end of May. Wasn't great there in two
17:48starts, seven earned in total. His most recent June 2nd at home against the
17:53Yankees. Now it's been over a month and Blake Snell is back again. What can we
17:58expect out of Snell in San Francisco tonight? Hopefully good things, but
18:03let's also take a look at the opposite side with the Toronto Blue Jays. You
18:06take a look at that price point here. Minus 1 22. So hold on now. Blake Snell
18:09versus you say Kikuchi in the home team is the Giants, and we're not favored by
18:13more than that raises some eyebrows. And also let's take a look at the
18:16analytical approach, man versus the non analytical approach. What has already
18:19happened on the field? Not is what we at the expectations, right? 99 batters
18:23over the past 30 days for you say Kikuchi, a 2 42 iso power number to 3
18:2787 weighted on base percentage. Get this to left handed batters. He's left
18:31handed pitcher, a 4 58 iso and awaited on base percentage of 4 62 over his
18:37last 26 batters. That is insane for a lefty going up against left handed
18:40batters. Right handed batters still decent 1 64 iso, which is right about
18:44average, but a 3 61 waited on base percentage. But let's take a look at
18:48the season and encapsulated here. Ben, you take a look at that. It is a 3 46
18:53expert number for road starts for you say Kikuchi. So what's gonna give
18:57tonight? Is it the most recency bias that we have over the past 100 batters
19:00and say he should get hammered and also the first four guys in the lineup
19:04tonight, all right handed batters. So they're mottoes, Ramos and Chapman.
19:08Everybody's elevated with iso power numbers. They should get to him. But
19:11also, as you talked about, what are we getting out of Blake Snell tonight on
19:15the season? 119 batters faced not very good, but this is a start coming back
19:20after an extended layoff. You can't just sit back and say he's gonna be his
19:24dominant self dominant as in what he wasn't that dominant before he went to
19:27the I. L. Now coming back. This is one of those games. I'm probably going to
19:30sit out at this point because Kikuchi decent numbers on the road. Snell. I
19:35have no idea what it's going to do. It might have been different. But it's
19:37like, man, he was on top of the world pitching before he went to the I. L.
19:41That never was the case with Snell this year. No, he's given up at least
19:45three earned runs in all six starts that he is made. He's going three with
19:48a 951 E. R. A. Let's get to one final game before we give you a best bet in
19:55Houston. The Astros a minus 2 25 favorite against one of the worst teams
20:00in the National League. That's the Miami Marlins. And you see that large
20:04money line distinction. 8.5 is the total D. R. S. On FanDuel. It says the
20:09Astros have yet to name their starter. Where are you seeing? It looks like
20:13Ronald Blanco is what we're gathering right now. Blanco certainly is a better
20:16pitcher this season, at least the last 60 days than Trevor Rogers. If you take
20:19a look at Trevor Rogers, a 1 15 expert minus number, and that equates to an
20:24expert before point 60. So not very good. But if we are taking a look at
20:28that lineup, Blanco, if he is the starter, he's done fairly well over the
20:31past 30 days. 122 batters. He's faced a 260 weighted on base percentage, which
20:36is pretty good. You take a look at that lineup. Boy, it leaves a lot to be
20:39desired here, Ben, for the Marlins. So from my money, of course, you're
20:43thinking of minus 200 favorite or better is going to win. But having said
20:46that, maybe looking at more of an under at this point in this game, but no
20:50real feel for this other than yes, the Astros should win.
20:54Houston lost the final two games of its weekend set in Minneapolis against the
20:58twins to lose that series. But before the final two, including the opener
21:02against Minnesota, they had won 13 of their last 15. Now, before we say
21:08farewell, it's time for a best bet. Before we say goodbye, here's bye bye
21:13bye.
21:14Mhm.
21:19A four major league baseball card on this Tuesday. What is the best of all
21:23the baseball bets in Donny's estimation? Let's think of Tuesday here
21:27at the fan blue sportsbook. Let's keep with the home runs. We're gonna go that
21:30launch pad up in Boston. Joey Estes can't get left handed batters out. So
21:34you know who we're squaring up here. That's Raphael Devers. And how about
21:36over the past 65 at bats against right handed pitching a 4 11 Iso power
21:41number a plus to 10 price today for Raphael Devers to hit a home run in
21:45Boston. It's low price for a reason. He's going yard tonight, boys.
21:50Drs. I love the look. It's stinger Tuesday. Let me give you one as well.
21:55Why not? That's got her Henderson plus 4 54 the Orioles. You said it's warm in
22:01Camden, right against Jameson Tyone. It's warm, baby. It's warm. We'll take.
22:06Yeah, we'll take a look at that. I also think the Guardians bounce back. Don't
22:10think you're paying the most on that money line. Minus 1 44 on the road in
22:14Detroit.