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00:00The Brazilian opener, the 2024 NFL season. After the debut on a Thursday night in Kansas City,
00:07we head to Sao Paulo. It's the Packers and the Eagles on this Friday night. Philadelphia is a
00:15two and a half point favorite now against Green Bay. The line yesterday was three in favor of
00:21the Birds, a little of market buyback to the Pack side of things. Total at 49 and a hook,
00:29it's the second highest total of all of week number one on this second game of the 2024 NFL
00:36season. Joe, we'll dive into the matchup over these next two segments. What the numbers are
00:40telling us about two teams expected to contend for a conference crown in the NFC this season.
00:47But let's start with the atmosphere. In Sao Paulo, the first NFL game ever played in Brazil
00:54on this Friday night. What does the international stage in your estimation
01:00due to the impact of this football game? Well, the surface is the first thing that you look at,
01:05Ben, right? And all indications are the surface is good, very fast. So, you know, speed won't be
01:12an issue. There shouldn't be an issue with fleets or rain or anything along those lines. So we
01:18should be good to go from there. I also want to say that you should probably keep an eye on what's
01:22happening with the hotels, Ben, because apparently Green Bay is a little bit further away than
01:28Philadelphia as the away team. That is the very, very true case of what could impact
01:35normal game day operations, which are already put out of skew being in Brazil. CBS Sports'
01:42Jonathan Jones, who's their NFL insider, reporting yesterday that because Philly got the nod from
01:47the National Football League as the home team in Sao Paulo, they are staying much closer to the
01:53stadium tonight. But Green Bay is a pretty far piece away and traffic in Sao Paulo is a disaster,
02:00always supposed to be even worse on this holiday weekend in Brazil. Some estimate it could take
02:06the Packers an hour and a half upwards of two hours to get to the stadium tonight against the
02:14Philadelphia Eagles. Again, now we look at the line, two and a half points in favor of the
02:20Birds, the over understands at 49 and a half. Ranieri, when this line opened up earlier in the summer
02:27months, it was a point and a half spread in favor of Philly. The Eagles had some love in the odds
02:33markets this offseason because of the shrewd moves made by Howie Roseman and that Philly front
02:39office. But the Packers have a lot of hope entering this year with Jordan Love, who got paid
02:45earlier this offseason as well. Where do you fall in the two and a half point spread now under that
02:50key number of a field goal? Yeah, it's a little shocking, is it not? Especially given the fact
02:56that Green Bay might be on the road for two and a half hours trying to get to the stadium for the
03:00game. You know, guys are creatures of habit, Ben. So this is going to be interesting. I know there
03:07is so much anticipation for the Eagles this year, and I'm not sold. I don't know that I am sold on
03:16the Eagles. Their wind total ten and a half. I think without a doubt, the Packers are going to
03:21be able to go toe to toe and score if it becomes a shootout in this game, which the total seems
03:27to indicate we may get here. I just don't. I'm not a big believer of the Eagles just yet. I got
03:34to see it, and I think the market is not a big believer in them anyway, Ben, which is why this
03:39number is dropping. Yeah, just a two and a half point spread total of forty nine and a hook. Last
03:45year, Green Bay was great as an underdog because they over exceeded expectation with Jordan Love,
03:52especially down that home stretch, victorious in six of their final eight regular season games,
03:58the upset at the store as a touchdown dog to begin the postseason. Now we talk about the total.
04:05What are we going to see from an offensive output? Forty nine and a half. Again, as you look at the
04:11entirety of the week one slate, this is the second highest over under of all of week number one. Only
04:18Sunday night in the Motor City between the Lions and the Rams at fifty two and a half currently
04:23has a higher number in area. Yeah, it's I'm telling you, this could very well turn into
04:30a shootout or it could turn into an absolute slug, you know, slog here and not get anywhere
04:37remotely close to that number. You got to remember, Jalen Hurts now new OC, Kellen Moore,
04:42right? New running back, Saquon Barkley there. You've got Dotson now in the slot as the number
04:48three receiver. And we also know that Jalen Hurts, no Kelsey on the offensive line. There
04:54are a lot of staples that are no longer here in Philadelphia. A lot of this is going to depend
05:01on what Jalen Hurts does against the Blitz, because if you remember last year, teams were
05:06just going out of that's when he had the biggest issues was when teams got in his face. I would
05:12expect a lot of that from the Packers defense here tonight. So question marks on both sides,
05:18but I still have more question marks about the Eagles here. The native of Beatrice, Nebraska,
05:24the former corn husker Cam Juergens takes over at that center spot for a legend in a Hall of
05:30Famer in Philadelphia in Jason Kelsey. If you have questions about Cam Juergens, I would say
05:36do not go watch him block cattle. That's how he gets ready for football there in Beatrice. Either
05:43way, when you look at the odds tonight, again, Green Bay, a sensational underdog last year,
05:49eight and four against the spread covering by an average margin of more than six points per game,
05:54six of those eight covers and outright victory for Green Bay. But that was last season for the
06:01Pack when there wasn't a ton of expectation in the first year following 15 with Aaron Rodgers
06:08as the starter. Jordan Love performed very well down the stretch. They upset Dallas on the road.
06:14They had a chance to do the same to San Francisco before faltering in the second half. You mentioned
06:20how the odds market seems to be buying back a little bit on Green Bay. Are you as optimistic
06:27as the odds are on the Packers this season? I am because I think what you saw last year with
06:33Jordan Love was a guy grow up right in front of our eyes, something that we have not seen
06:39in a while and something we usually only see with some of the truly greats, right? We saw Aikman
06:45have to struggle the first couple of years and all of a sudden you saw when it clicked with Aikman.
06:50You saw it with Love. You saw it with Peyton Manning. You've seen it with there is just
06:55something that moment that comes in that, you know, second or third year where all of a sudden
07:00the game slows down to these guys and they're a different quarterback and I think that's what
07:05we saw with Jordan Love. We'll talk about the quarterback props for tonight in Sao Paolo and
07:10then move forward to our next primetime game in week number one. Sunday night in Detroit,
07:16a playoff rematch between the Rams and the Lions up next. The quarterback comparison for the
07:21Brazilian opener tonight in Sao Paolo. Again, Philadelphia two and a half point favorite
07:25currently against Green Bay a total of 49 and a half Jordan Love 256 and a half is passing
07:32yards prop actually substantially higher than that of Jalen Hurts last year as the Packers
07:38started their run down the stretch Jordan Love over this number or at least 250 plus in six of
07:44the final eight games 18 touchdowns to only one INT in those eight games to finish out the season
07:53Jalen Hurts for area. It's a slightly different story. He started to struggle the O-line struggled
07:59the defense struggled the Eagles one of the worst secondaries and passing defenses in the NFL
08:04a season ago second worst might be a little bit difficult to defend Jordan Love tonight. The Eagles
08:10stumbled down the stretch. They lost five of their final six games in the regular season to lose out
08:15on the NFC East divisional crown had to go on the road to Tampa against the Buccaneers super wild
08:20card weekend and even as a road favorite lost to Baker and the Bucs. You mentioned your thoughts
08:28on the Eagles. How much of it is a focus on the quarterback play with Jalen Hurts starting tonight?
08:34Well, it's listen Hurts is very good under the right situations, right? The big question is
08:42are they going to be able to use utilize these new pieces on the offensive line the new weapons
08:49will he find a comfort level now? Don't forget. He's still got, you know Smith on the outside.
08:53He's still got Brown. He still has some guys there tight ends that he can utilize here.
08:59But on that flip side to Ben keep in mind. This is a Vic Fangio defense of Philadelphia. Now
09:05they figured well, maybe Matt Patricia wasn't the best fill in last year and decided that maybe just
09:11maybe Vic Fangio would be a good hire. The problem that I know of with Vic Fangio defenses is there
09:18is a big learning curve and their defenses are usually much better in late October early November
09:26than they are in September. Not to mention outside of Darius Slay everybody else in that secondary
09:31is a rookie, you know where there's no turnover Ben almost none on the offensive side with Jordan
09:37Love and the Green Bay Packers and that unit is all back again. And I think they're going to have
09:43a ton of success early and often in this game. The one change for Green Bay Aaron Jones out AJ
09:49Dylan on I are he is out for this 2024 season, but enter Josh Jacobs for year 48 million dollar deal
09:57by running back standards this offseason. He got paid. He is now the lead back for the pack. Let's
10:03go to our next primetime game week. Number one Sunday night in the Motor City enter Matthew
10:09Stafford and the Rams taking on the Lions 2423 the victory for Detroit in the postseason a season ago
10:18the first playoff victory for the Lions in 32 years now to start 2024 four and a half point
10:26favorite against Los Angeles again highest total of the entirety of the week one slate. It's at 52
10:32and a half. Not high enough as far as I'm concerned here, but you want to talk about the most exciting
10:39game of the weekend. This is going to be it. You're looking for scoring. This is the game that is going
10:46to provide the scoring here. I have no doubt that both of these teams will have no issues going up
10:53and down the field scoring on one another and listen to me. This is all about coaching too
10:59as well the mentality and you can always tell a good team Ben when they take on you know the
11:05personality of their head coach here. McVay still to this day I will say is one of the best offensive
11:11minded head coaches in the game. He's got a proven track record and Detroit is bought all in. I mean
11:17absolutely all in here. I think this is going to be the best and most entertaining game of the
11:23weekend. There is no way this thing stays under 50 points. I think we end up getting closer to 60 when
11:28it's all said and done. The Rams played 18 games last year. Nine times over, nine times under. The
11:35playoff game had a total in the low 50s. It stayed under but still 47 points. It wasn't exactly a
11:41slugfest in Detroit. The Lions played 20 total games a season ago. 13 games over. Second highest
11:49over percentage in the National Football League. Now we know where the expectation is for both teams.
11:55The Rams the seventh best price in the NFC to get back to the postseason for a second consecutive
12:00year. The Lions have the second best number to win the NFC. Trying to play in their second straight
12:06NFC championship game. Detroit a favorite to win the NFC North for a second straight season. A lot
12:12of focus on the quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford who spent the first decade plus in the Motor City
12:18against Jared Goff. Jared Goff who had the second most passing yards in the NFL a season ago. Maybe
12:24the best offseason move Detroit made. Not losing the OC in Ben Johnson. That consistency year over
12:31year is expected to pay dividends offensively for the Lions. Hour number two on a football Friday.
12:39Up next on the Early Line. Hour number two. Welcome to it on a football Friday. The first full football
12:46Friday on the Early Line this year. Why? Because week number one in the 2024 NFL season now officially
12:53underway after the Arrowhead opener in the season debut last night between the Chiefs and the Ravens.
12:59A few more thoughts and reactions from last night in KC Moe with Mike Blewett later on in this second
13:07hour of a football Friday. He's Joe Ranieri. I am Ben Stevens. Plenty to dive into. We set the stage
13:13for each and every game on the week one Sunday slate. The first full Sunday slate of this season
13:20by my count, Joe. 13 games on Sunday. That is a beautiful thing. We'll talk some college football
13:27later on to start off hour number three. Football is our focus. I mean, it is a football Friday.
13:35Yeah, it really is, isn't it? It's and the first craziness, a full slate of college
13:40football week two now all day Saturday, Sunday leading right into week one. It is back and
13:48you got to love this time of year, Ben, because we're only, what, a month away from the NBA being
13:52back. So welcome everybody to September. Welcome to September, indeed. The final month of the MLB
14:02regular season as well. The weekend stage has already been set. One of the great games,
14:08Ranieri, not in primetime this week, but in the afternoon window on Sunday. Two teams expected
14:13to contend for a playoff spot, but maybe with overall different outlooks. It is always Super
14:19Bowl or bust for Dallas since 1995. It has been bust. What can Cleveland do with the Sean Watson
14:26in his third year as the QB in the land? So much talent up and down the roster, but it was Joe
14:32Flacco leading Cleveland to a playoff berth a season ago. Cleveland at home, a two and a half
14:40point favorite in front of the dog pound on Sunday in the first game that Tom Brady will call as a
14:46color analyst for Fox. Who cares? We watch football for football. That's just my own
14:52diatribe. Forty and a half is the total Ranieri for this marquee showdown between the boys and
14:57the Browns. Which way do you lean? Yeah. So the problem with the Browns is that everything is
15:06going to be centered around what do we get from Deshaun Watson? I'll tell you this. New offensive
15:11coordinator. They brought in Ken Dorsey, the former Buffalo Bills OC there, former U of M
15:17quarterback there, to try and help put him in a spot and do the things, the kind of
15:24concepts offensively that Deshaun Watson thrives in, which is usually the spread idea. Any sort
15:31of spread offenses. That is where he has always been his best and certainly was what we got with
15:36him out of Houston. If he shows up and finally gets it right, like we've been waiting for this
15:43flip thing on the switch to be flipped with him, where where is that old Deshaun Watson?
15:48If the rust is gone, the offensive line, by the way, is elite. Conklin is back this year for
15:54Cleveland. He only played 22 snaps last year and then ended up getting hurt. A solid group of
16:01wide receivers. We know what the running back game is going to be there. This is a solid team.
16:07The Cowboys losing Dan Quinn and a ton of depth on the defensive side of the ball, especially on
16:13the defensive line. This is a worrisome spot for the Cowboys. It's a worrisome season. But with
16:20Cleveland, it's you win with Deshaun Watson or you lose with Deshaun Watson. That's where it all lies
16:26for them. And frankly, we have not seen a lot of football out of Deshaun Watson in the last
16:32three calendar years since 2020. He skipped out on all of 2021. Not happy with the Houston
16:39organization. Suspended, of course, in his first year with Cleveland for the first 11 games for
16:44multiple violations of the NFL's personal conduct policy. Played six games. He was rather mediocre
16:51to end out 2022. Last year, only five fully healthy games before the shoulder injury sidelined
16:58the remainder of his season. He has thrown for more than 250 yards twice in his 11 full games
17:05for the Browns. And do not forget how much guaranteed money is invested in this man and
17:10the uptick in terms of the cap hit starts to really go into fruition this year in 2024. More than 250
17:19twice. More than 230 only three times. Seven touchdowns to four interceptions a season ago.
17:26He's been mediocre. If he's better than mediocre, the Browns outlook is higher. Eight and a half is
17:32the win total. The over has the juice. There is so much talent to Joe's point. The defense
17:38expected to be good once again. Kevin Stefanski coming off his second coach of the year award,
17:44leading Joe Flacco and the Browns into a playoff berth. I wait with bated breath to
17:50see the Cleveland Browns attach themselves to the optimism that follows them around,
17:55at least in the last few off seasons. One thing that does really stand out to me, though,
18:0040 and a half, a very low total for this football game, which was the case often for the Browns
18:07last year. They had one of the better defenses in the NFL, at least at home. They actually had
18:13the highest overpercentage in the National Football League because of those low totals.
18:1812 of 18 games over for Cleveland a season ago. Dallas not often booked as a dog runnery four
18:26times last season. Owen four against the number not covering by an average margin of 12 points
18:34per game. So when Dallas was a dog, it was for a reason. They got nowhere close to even covering
18:41spreads when they were not expected to win the football game outright. Yeah. And, you know,
18:46they opened up over the summer, Ben, as a two point favorite. And now they're a two point dog.
18:52So the market is apparently much higher on the Browns. And they should be. Listen,
18:57one of the best hires Stefanski ever made was bringing in Jim Schwartz
19:01to handle that defense there. And they lost nobody. But they added Quentin Jefferson,
19:07who over the last couple of years has been a pass rush machine. So with Jim Schwartz calling
19:12the shots and Dallas losing Tyrone Smith, you know, their other their center, they're much
19:19different on the offensive line. This points could be very hard to come by here in this game, for
19:24sure. Yeah, I think so. Forty and a half the number, Mike Zimmer, of course, longtime Vikings
19:30head coach takes over as the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys. And unless something changes
19:36in the next 48 hours, both head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Dak Prescott will start
19:412024 in the final year of their contract without a new deal nor extension on the horizon. Now let's
19:49go to Western New York. How will they circle the wagons to start 2024 with so much change and
19:55turnover this offseason for the Bills? But one constant remains. It's Josh Allen. His Bill's
20:02a six and a half point favorite at home in Buffalo against the Arizona Cardinals. It's a six
20:07and a half point spread. Joe, there's a lot of people that believe the cards who last year
20:12booked as an underdog all 17 games and covered in a majority of them nine and eight against the
20:17number now with a fully healthy Kyler Murray might be a thorn in the side of many around the NFL this
20:23season. What say you? I listen, I think scheduling matters and a trip to Western New York in, let's
20:32say, week five might be a problem backing or looking at Arizona. But in game one, where they've
20:40had all offseason to prepare for this game, not to mention their next three games are at home in
20:46Arizona. I love what they've got going. I love their draft. I love that they addressed everything
20:53that they needed. I think Gannon is one of the better upcoming coaches here. Got them to play
20:59really competitive even without Kyler Murray last year. Kyler Murray healthy. Buffalo is not the
21:06Buffalo Bills of old. They will always be good and have a chance because of Josh Allen. But expecting
21:12them to win by a touchdown or more in games, I'm not buying it here. It's Arizona for me.
21:18The Bills were not a great cover team last year, booked as a favorite 16 times despite the
21:23struggle. We forget Buffalo was six and six before battling off five consecutive wins to end out the
21:29regular season, but still always high expectation in Western New York. The Bills just seven to nine
21:35against the spread as a favorite a season ago. 47 and a half is that total. Arizona only won
21:42four games last year, but again, an underdog in all 17, nine and eight against the number,
21:48but three of those four wins came in the eight games that Kyler Murray started.
21:52So there should be some hope for this Cardinals team this season. More around the week one slate
21:57next. We set the stage for the entirety of the week one slate, all 13 games on this first full
22:03Sunday of the NFL regular season. Now we go to Cincinnati where the largest spread of the weekend
22:10is seen. It is currently eight and a half points in favor of the bangles at its peak. It was nine
22:17and a hook total 40 and a half. Now there could be many reasons for the movement, but the reason
22:23the spread is the largest in north of a touchdown. The Patriots have the lowest wind total of all 32
22:29NFL organizations entering this season. The debut for Gerard Mayo, Jacoby Brissett has been named
22:35the starter. The wind total for the past is a measly four and a half, but you saw the headline
22:42for the graphic for this game, Joe. That's where we'll start. Jamar Chase, a limited participant,
22:48the last two days of practice for Cincy. That's a good thing. Will he play on Sunday in the bangles
22:55home opener? And boy, I don't know what to do with the Patriots this year. I think their wind total
23:02was for Ben. I'm struggling to figure out how they're going to get three wins, much less four
23:08or five wins at this particular point. Gerard Mayo is going to have to learn on the spot,
23:15either which way Cincinnati who we know what Cincinnati is without Joe Burrow, but Joe Burrow
23:21is playing in this game as far as I know. So as long as Joe Burrow is on the field, there is a
23:26really good chance that Cincinnati is going to have some success and a lot of it. Although the
23:33running game is going to look a little bit different this year, but the defense will not be
23:38different, Ben. And I am sorry, Jacoby. It is going to be a long day for you. I'll give the Patriots
23:45this though. Don't forget last year. They lost their secondary, got decimated by injuries, right?
23:51Christian Gonzalez tore his shoulder, missed 13 games. Their quarterback, the young quarterback,
23:56Marcus Jones also had the same injury in the same game. He missed 13 games. All of them are back
24:03this year. So that young secondary, very talented, is back and ready to go. But ultimately, how are
24:10they going to stop anything Joe Burrow is going to be throwing at him? I don't think they will.
24:14It's probably the biggest blowout of the day.
24:1740 and a half is the total. Relatively low. I think a lot of that because we don't expect the
24:23Patriots to put up many points. The worst scoring offense in the National Football League or one of
24:29the bottom three at bare minimum. Decent on defense, only allowing 21.5 points per game. As
24:36you see here, the Patriots are booked as a hefty underdog, north of a touchdown. We expect, Joe,
24:43New England will probably be a dog for the entirety of this season. Last year,
24:48only four wins, the least in the 24 years under Bill Belichick. And as an underdog, 12 times,
24:54just four, seven, and one against the number. Now we go to Atlanta, a game we hit on a little
25:01bit earlier in the show because of Russell Wilson and his injury status. Limited at practice on
25:07Thursday because of a calf injury that has plagued him a few times throughout camp and
25:12the preseason. It was a three-point spread in favor of the Falcons for Kirk Cousins' debut
25:18as Atlanta's new quarterback. Now three and a hook in favor of the Dirty Birds. Total
25:24at 42 and a half. What do you make of the opener in the ATL on Sunday afternoon?
25:29Uh, how are we getting over this total? I'm just curious. Uh, we all know too, I believe,
25:37uh, the record of Tomlin, uh, on the road, uh, I believe is now 50-22 to the under in the regular
25:46season games. Uh, that is the last nine season, the Pittsburgh Steelers under Tomlin are dead
25:53unders on the road. It's their method. It's the only way they give themselves an opportunity,
25:59Ben, to be able to win games that they're a dog in. Uh, I can't wait to see Kirk Cousins.
26:05I think this is going to be a huge year for him. I know a lot of people very high
26:09on the Atlanta Falcons this year. They think this is going to be an easy win. If you like the
26:15Falcons and you got them over the win total, this is a winnable game for them. I don't care who's
26:19a quarterback, but I also love the fact that the Steelers are on the road and this total isn't 40,
26:27it's 42 and a half. Uh, I would bet the under sooner rather than later before it's all said
26:33and done. Russell Wilson's passing yards props still available on FanDuel. It's a couple of
26:38yards shy of two bills. It's 198 and a hook to 40 and a half for Kirk Cousins. I look at this total
26:46and I think it's an examination for both sides. I'm going to focus on a lot of Falcons numbers
26:50throughout this year. We expect them to be one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL,
26:56despite Raheem Morris taking the reins in Atlanta, more of a defensive minded guy,
27:01spent the last three years as the DC in LA after being the interim coach in 2020 for the Atlanta
27:08Falcons, but so many pieces offensively for Atlanta to like in Pittsburgh has to be better
27:13offensively, a homecoming of sorts in week number one for Arthur Smith, who spent the last three
27:20years as the head coach for the Falcons. Now the offensive play caller for Pittsburgh, 42 and a
27:26half that number. We know the Steelers are a great underdog team entering year number 18 of the
27:30Tomlin era last year, both six and five straight up and against the spread every cover as a dog
27:37in 11 tries, they won outright. Here's an interesting opener that we thought Russell
27:43Wilson might factor into like we saw in his first game for the Broncos back in 2022. But of course
27:49now he's in the Steel City and Bo Nix is the starting quarterback for the Broncos set to make
27:54his debut as a team captain against Gino Smith and the Seahawks new head coach in the Northwest
28:01after 14 years under Pete Carroll, Mike McDonald, now the new head man for the Seahawks 41 and a
28:07half is the total five and a half to spread in favor of Seattle. Joe, will this game be more
28:12competitive than a rather hefty spread by week one standards? I listen, I love Bo Nix. I think
28:21it's a great story. I think it will be a great story throughout the year with, you know, with
28:27the coaching combination there in Denver for him. I think this is going to be great. However,
28:33going to the 12th man as a rookie to start your career is not ideal at all in any way,
28:40shape or form. This ain't Oregon. This ain't USC. This is a different animal here. I like
28:47Seattle. I like McDonald. I think Seattle is going to win some games surprisingly this year for people.
28:54He's played in that area. He's played against another team from Seattle in Washington.
28:59The last two years, he was, oh, and three, that being Bo Nix with Oregon against UW. 61 career
29:07starts at the FBS level. The most we have ever seen in college football history. Is he ready to
29:12go right from the jump as a rookie, other rookie quarterbacks make their debut on Sunday. Next
29:19live right here on this football Friday on the early line on sports grid. Bo Nix will make his
29:24debut as a five and a half point underdog in Seattle, but he was the 12th overall pick.
29:30We're not going to see Drake May. We're not going to see Michael Pennix jr. For Atlanta. And sadly,
29:35JJ McCarthy out for this season in Minnesota, which means we will see one and two. Welcome
29:43to the Caleb Williams era in the windy city at soldier field on Sunday, the bears a three and a
29:51half point favorite against the Titans, the total of 44 and a half. Joe, we've got some stats on
29:57what the number one overall pick has done for his team in terms of success in the same year of his
30:05draft year. What do you think week one in the season and career debut for Caleb Williams looks
30:11like against the Titans? Well, it won't be a cover. I'll tell you that because I got four and
30:17a half in my pocket right now and I'll be all over Tennessee. So whatever those numbers tell you
30:23there, Ben, make this all in one for the bears and Caleb Williams, who I am just not a big believer
30:30in. I don't know what to say here. I think that Jane Daniels is going to be the we're going to
30:36look back and believe that was the prize of this past draft, not Caleb Williams. I'm also not sold
30:44on that at all, that coaching staff in order to be able to to handle him with Eber Flus in charge
30:51there. I just don't buy it. I think things are going to get worse before they ever get better
30:57there. Too much expectations for a team that should basically there are 500 team as far as
31:04I'm concerned, Ben, if that if they're lucky to be a 500 team here, I think Tennessee, nobody's
31:09looking at him. And I think Tennessee can bite him to start the season. Eight and a half is the
31:15win total for Chicago. The over has the Jews expected to be a winning team, even with a rookie
31:20quarterback who went number one overall, not necessarily a number one overall pick because
31:25Chicago had the worst record in the NFL a season ago. In fact, they won five of their final seven
31:30games led by the defense to finish just a few games below 500 with seven wins. But for a rookie
31:37QB, even as polished as a Heisman winner like Caleb Williams, it is often a struggle. Great
31:43stat research from our producer Joe Friso. Caleb Williams will become the 19th first overall pick
31:49to start at quarterback in week number one of his draft year since the NFL merger now over 60 years
31:57ago, the previous 18 QBs, including Bryce Young to start 2023 went 314 and one straight up and
32:06just 512 in one against the spread in week number one. I wonder how many of those were more than a
32:13field goal favorite at home on top of all of that. Now I am not overly optimistic about Tennessee.
32:19Will Levis takes the mantle as the starting quarterback for the Titans, a new head coach
32:24there as well. And Brian Callahan, after a few years as the OC in Cincinnati, I am more optimistic
32:31Joe about Chicago in the opener and the entirety of 2024, then you or our friend Donnie right side
32:38to 42 and a half is the number four Caleb Williams in his NFL career debut. Joe just four times last
32:45year to Justin Fields go over that number 335 against the Broncos 282 against the commanders.
32:54In fact, only three times and 268 in the second to last regular season game against the Falcons.
33:01Caleb's season long prop is 3500 and a hook. If he goes over that, he would have the fifth most
33:07passing yards in the history of the Bears franchise in a single season. Even if he falls 200 yards
33:13under that number, still the fifth highest passing season in the history of this Bears
33:19franchise, which of course has never had a 4000 yard passer ever. CJ Stroud threw for more than
33:274000 yards last year in his rookie campaign. Many are hoping that Caleb Williams can hit the ground
33:32running. Alright, so you're not overly optimistic on Caleb Williams. How about number two overall
33:38pick Jaden Daniels, an underdog on the road in Tampa against Baker Mayfield and his box
33:45three and a half point spread in favor of the Buccaneers, who won the NFC South last year for
33:50a third straight season. Quandre digs a woozy a and Jerry Snead. Let me know how Caleb Williams
33:57is going to get over that number this weekend, as that's the secondary of Tennessee. I love
34:02Jaden Daniels. You know this. I also think that Baker Mayfield is also poised to have another
34:09good season. Why both of these guys love to get rid of the ball quickly. I'm not sold on the
34:15defenses. I do think it's going to take a little time for all that young talent on the Washington
34:20side. Defensively, I love the over in this game. I think it goes sailing over to 42 and a half.
34:2642 and a half. That number the commanders last year in the final year under Ron Rivera,
34:30six, six and one ATS as a dog. But Dan Quinn, now the new head coach in Washington,
34:37Big Blue Mike Lewis joins us now. It would not be a true football Friday to kick off the NFL
34:44season and week number one without Mike Blewett, who joins us live right here on this Friday on
34:49the early line on sports grid Big Blue. We are happy to have you back excited to get football
34:55season rolling before we dive into the reactions from the season debut last night in Kansas City.
35:01Look ahead to the Brazilian opener in Sao Paolo tonight between the Packers and the Eagles.
35:06Let the people know where we can see you throughout this NFL season on the spares grids.
35:12Fire it up. So my buddy, my partner in crime right here, Joe Rainieri and I will be on from
35:18one to 430 every Sunday. We'll be taking care of the one o'clock games in game lives. So
35:24especially earlier in the season, you're going to have some pretty heavily weighted one o'clock
35:29eastern time slates. So we're carrying eight games this week. It'll be nine and 10 in weeks ahead.
35:35So we're excited to do it. It's our own little version of red zone as we follow the games live
35:40and give you live betting opportunities. Some great reactions throughout the witching hour
35:45and into those later slates. It will be great stuff here on the sports grid network. All right,
35:512024 NFL. It kicked off last night inside arrowhead between the chiefs and the Ravens.
35:58Oh, so close for what would have been a tremendous final drive and come back out of the flock. But
36:04Isaiah likely's toe on the white line beyond the end zone and out of bounds. Kansas City holds on
36:11and survives to start off its second consecutive title defense, a perfect one and oh, they cover
36:18as a three point home favorite winning 2728 total 46 and a hook just trickles over. What was your
36:25main takeaway blue from the season debut last night in arrowhead? Tough feed for Ravens fans.
36:31Obviously, I think a lot of times people are going to try to make a wide ranging assumptions based on
36:39an opening night game. But that's a tough place to go in and play at any time of year. They're
36:43getting their Super Bowl rings. There's a big celebration. I thought that there was a little
36:47bit of a stop and start with some of the offenses. But we've seen this year over year. That's to be
36:52expected, especially in these prime time games. The things that you can take away from it that
36:57I think are important are the usage rates of the certain players. We really thought going into at
37:03least I did going into the season, we would see a lot more to tight end looks from the Ravens.
37:08That's been confirmed already. And as Isaiah likely passed Mark Andrews, that remains to be
37:14seen. But clearly both will be utilized in the offense and say flower is still a big part of it.
37:19They'll be able to get Derek Henry going against teams that are not as great defensively as the
37:24Chiefs are. And that should be noted. The Chiefs come up with big stops. They continue to. It's
37:29not just a Super Bowl run. It's been years now that Steve Spagnuolo's defense is excellent,
37:35particularly in the second halves of games. So the Ravens continue to be strong in the first half,
37:42although they bought some scoring opportunities and the Chiefs continue to really play well
37:46defensively in the second half and win games in the second half.
37:52Where do you to me? I watched that game last night, blew it. And I'm going,
37:56oh, don't do this, man. This is the Lamar Jackson show again. And that is that's never a good thing.
38:02You know what I mean? It feels like so we're going to be Lamar or bust again.
38:06And so what he's going to be hurt after the fifth game. Like I'm terrified, Mike,
38:10that the Ravens are going to have to spend too much time early on,
38:13relying on Lamar, and they're going to get him killed.
38:17I think it's totally fair. In fact, our guy Joe Lisi said that on his broadcast last night,
38:22watching the game. Like, where is the flow of the offense? Why is this just Lamar breaking out of
38:28the pocket? I think the biggest concern for the Ravens for me going into the season, unfortunately,
38:34is their offensive line. Three new starters, not as much consistency. Ronnie Stanley,
38:39probably not as dominant as he was four or five years ago. So I think that's going to continue to
38:45be a concern. But you're right. It's got to be more Derrick Henry. And let's get the ball out
38:50to some of these real weapons. Now, we've struggled with weapons on the outside for the Ravens for
38:55several years, but that's not the case now. Mark Andrews will get back to being healthier. Isaiah
39:00likely was a star last night and say Flowers is one of the top young wide receivers in the entire
39:05league. Not to mention Derrick Henry is there. Is he is the same he was five years ago? No,
39:10but they'll have to figure out a way to take some of the onus off of Lamar. It was too much to ask,
39:15but it could possibly be a function of how good the chiefs are defensively last night.
39:21The reigning NFL MVP combining for 395 total yards, 273 through the air, 122 on the ground.
39:30Not only the flocks leading Russia, but have more carries last night, 16 and Derrick Henry,
39:36who only had 13. Some questions I would say about Todd Munkin's play calling,
39:41but I think it's also a product of the environment. That is a shaky offensive line
39:46that needs to gel together, at least at the store. You guys might be saying,
39:50what are you guys talking about? Lamar was hit once last night. It only sacked once
39:55by the chiefs, but you saw the idea behind what Baltimore was doing. Offensively quick throws,
40:01get it out. If Lamar doesn't like it, take off and lower the shoulder. Maybe more than anybody
40:07in Baltimore would like to see Lamar Jackson do late in the game, in the fourth quarter,
40:12a couple of deep strikes, Isaiah, likely the 45 yard touchdown. He had 111 yards. Rashad Bateman,
40:18deep down the right sideline to get the Ravens into the chiefs red zone to have that opportunity
40:24down the stretch, but a couple of missed opportunities and some open wideouts for
40:29Lamar. Before we move on to the Sao Paulo opener tonight, between the birds and the pack,
40:34let's talk about the Ravens and the chiefs. The AFC championship game rematch from last year
40:39to start 2024. Earlier in the show, we all were a little bit confounded by how swift the reaction
40:47was and the market movement against the flock turned out to be at a 10 to one price from plus
40:52five 50 entering the season. The market has corrected itself with plus seven 50. Now on
40:58Baltimore, some negative market reaction, as you would expect, not nearly as profound as we saw
41:04earlier on this Friday morning, blue. Let me ask you the question like this season outlook. Overall,
41:09we expect the chiefs to be back to have an opportunity at least to contend for a third
41:14consecutive Lombardi trophy for the two teams that met in last year's AFC title matchup.
41:20Will both be back? Will one be back? And if so, who will neither reach the AFC championship game
41:26again? I have a hard time knocking the chiefs off of the pedestal as you go through schedules
41:31and finding out who could beat them. It's all pretty fragile because there are great competitive
41:37teams in the AFC, but I have a hard time knocking them off the pedestal. I would certainly bet on
41:42them to be back in the AFC championship game over the Ravens and not based on last night's
41:48result. That those odds are pretty fragile, right? Because now the chiefs do have a game
41:54up on the Ravens, not just record wise, but in some sort of a tiebreaker fashion. That's why the
41:59odds change pretty drastically, even though they've corrected themselves somewhat. But I don't think
42:04you should be panicked about the Ravens. But my concerns about the Ravens that I had going into
42:09the season are the same as they were before last night's game. Nothing's changed. I'm worried about
42:14that offensive line. And to Joe's point, is Lamar going to have to do this every game?
42:21What are you doing tonight? Blow it. Philadelphia in Brazil, taking on Green Bay. You lean in one
42:26way or the other. It's pretty fascinating what happens year over year in the NFL and the amount
42:32of coordinator changes that happen, right? We focus a lot on head coaching changes, but this
42:37team now, the Eagles have changed out both coordinators. And I'm curious to see how
42:43Kellen Moore's up-tempo style meshes with Vic Fangio's style of defense. It didn't really work
42:49well in Miami. Can it work well in Philly? And then defensive coordinator for the Packers has
42:54changed out because that's been a huge issue for them. So I think those two matching up will be
43:00really curious. The Packers closed very strong. The Eagles collapsed at the end of the year.
43:05I think I'm leaning towards the Eagles to get off to a good start, but I'm just a little,
43:11I think I'm leaning, my favorite bet here tonight is leaning towards
43:14Unders simply because it's a long way to travel. It's a 9.15 p.m. Eastern time start,
43:20and I just don't love a lot of points being put up in this game. It's an exciting, it's two
43:25exciting offenses. I'd love to see that. I just don't know if we get there on such a high total
43:30of 49 and a half. Forty? Yeah, 49 and a half is that number. It is the second highest total of
43:35the entirety of the week. One slate, only Detroit and L.A. in the Motor City on Sunday night.
43:41Football has a higher number. The Packers eight and four against the spread as a dog a year ago.
43:48It is now less than three Philly under Nick Sirianni since the start of 2021,
43:532018 and three against the number at 18. Plenty more with Mike Lewis up next.
43:59Welcome back to the early line on this first full football Friday of the 2024 NFL season.
44:05And a first full Sunday slate as well. An intriguing game in my estimation in Miami,
44:12a part of that early window, a sunshine state showdown between the Dolphins and the Jaguars
44:18in Ranieri's neck of the woods. Miami opens as a three and a half point favorite against Jacksonville.
44:24Forty nine and a hook is the total time for that second highest total of the weekend alongside the
44:28game tonight in Brazil. Now it's an interesting game, Blue, because the Dolphins are trying to
44:34get back to the postseason for a third consecutive year, all three years under Mike McDaniel,
44:39trying to win their first playoff game in the National Football League since the year 2000.
44:44Jacksonville, they were the Darlings entering last year off an AFC South championship and a
44:50victory at home over the L.A. Chargers and come back fashion eight and three to start off the year.
44:56Seemed like they were going to walk to a second consecutive divisional crown
45:00and they fell down the stretch, dropping five of their final six. What is your outlook for
45:06this week? One opener and on both of these teams in twenty twenty four.
45:11So I would couch my answer to this week's game by saying I think people are dismissing our
45:17overall are a little light on the Jaguars. I think it's a very talented roster. Lawrence was
45:24banged up a lot last year and there's still some things to work out. I don't think it's a
45:29Super Bowl contending team, but I do find them to be really talented and I think they have a
45:34chance to win the division. I think Houston is being gifted this division by a lot of people
45:39and I think it could be a little tougher battle than some suspect. Your point, Ben, they were
45:43eight and three at one point before the wheels fell off. But in terms of this weekend, one thing
45:49Miami is really good at is getting off to good starts under Mike McDaniel. I'd be surprised if
45:55Joe didn't agree with me. But it's South Beach. It's early September. We are it is going to be
46:01blazing hot most likely. And Miami likes to get after it early. My favorite bet here is the Miami
46:08first half team total over at thirteen and a half. I think week over week you are going to see that
46:14climb and you will not get a number this low that often. So that's the way I would attack it. I
46:20think Miami will get after it early. I do like them to win and cover this game as well.
46:25Oh, Florida team taking on Florida team. I will say this at that stadium, though, blew it.
46:31One side is in the shade on the sideline. The other side is in the blazing heat.
46:38That would be Jacksonville. We'll see if they've assimilated there to the Florida heat here. I
46:44think they should both be able to manage here. I think it's going to be a good game. I love home
46:50dogs in week one blew it. How about you? Because Indy appears to be getting points at home against
46:56Houston, a team they know pretty well and have had some success over the years against the
47:01divisional home dog as well. And then betting against divisional home dogs, not really a
47:06profitable way to to look at it. I think this is going to be a real battle of a game and a
47:12one score game. I think you're you're good to take the points here. I like the Houston Texans
47:18outlook on the season, obviously clearly better. And everybody I think everybody that's an NFL fan
47:24is rooting for C.J. Stroud to take even another leap. He could be one of the next great
47:29quarterbacks in the league. But I like where the Texans have built. I don't expect any kind of
47:35hangover from last year. I really do think this will be a competitive division outside of the
47:40Titans. But I think you're right. As a divisional home dog, I know it doesn't look pretty and it's
47:46only two and a half points, but that's a profitable place to be is taking points at home
47:51in the division. I think the Colts kind of control how compelling the AFC South race is this year.
47:58As strange as that might be to say, in eight and a half win total, a team that won nine games a
48:04year ago and up until week 18 in a showdown with the Texans on a Saturday night could have equally
48:10won the division like Houston was able to do. But last year it was Gardner Minshew. The reason for
48:16it is the de facto rookie season perhaps for Anthony Richardson. Just four appearances last
48:21year, only two complete games, but four rushing touchdowns for AR plus 115 for the athletic freak
48:29at the quarterback spot to find Pater against the Texans on Sunday. Now we move on to a divisional
48:37duel as well in Los Angeles. Welcome Jim Harbaugh back to the National Football League. The Bolts,
48:43a three-point home favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders, a total of 40 and a half. Antonio Pierce,
48:50the interim head coach, now the permanent head man in Sin City. They're in LA to open up.
48:56Bluett, what's your read on this game between the Chargers and the Raiders?
49:02I don't expect a lot of points, hence the low total of 40 and a half. I don't know if we can
49:07get quite under that, but both teams are going to try to take the air out of the ball. I don't think
49:13Antonio Pierce is going to dial up a lot of creative downfield looks, despite the fact that
49:18he has some interesting weapons in Adams and Bowers. And on the flip side, I think Jim Harbaugh's
49:25plan from the second he thought of, from the second he arrived at Michigan and now continues
49:31to be his three yards in a cloud of dust, I think that offensive line can be really dominant this
49:36year, regardless of who's toting the ball. Justin Herbert's going to be more of a game manager,
49:42that's not a pejorative as far as I'm concerned, more of a game manager this year than he's been
49:47asked to do in the past. The only thing, the only question I have about the Chargers for this season
49:51is, can this defense hold up? Do they have enough talent to really compete with some of the better
49:56teams in the FC? I don't think they do, but I do think this running, the running offense,
50:02the rushing offense, excuse me, will be very efficient. So I'm fine to lay the three here,
50:07I don't have a high expectations for the Raiders this season. The Raiders were very, very good
50:14under Antonio Pierce last year, winning some games and covering a ton in his nine as the interim head
50:21coach. They covered in seven of the nine last year for Las Vegas. The Bolts actually had one of the
50:27highest underpercentages in the National Football League a year ago, 12 of 17 games under that
50:34total. So that's a divisional matchup to start off this season in LA. One thing we can say about
50:41Jim Harbaugh, whether it was at the FCS level at San Diego, the FBS level restoring the dormant
50:47power that was Stanford, or of course, bringing Michigan back atop the mountain in college
50:53football or in the National Football League with the San Francisco 49ers. The guy wins and builds
50:59organizations right away. Blew it sticks around for a couple more games on the Sunday slate.
51:05Up next here on this first full football Friday on the early line on sports grid. What does Bryce
51:12Young look like in his sophomore season in the NFL? What's going to happen between the Giants
51:18Vikings on Sunday? Find out that the final few games to round out the Sunday slate live right
51:23here on this first full football Friday of the 2024 NFL campaign with Mike Blewett. I've been
51:30Steven Stroberneri here as well on this football Friday. All right, blue man. Let's go to New
51:36Orleans where we have a divisional matchup on Sunday in the early window. The Saints three
51:40and a half point favorite against the Panthers. That's what you might expect 41 and a half. But
51:46what does Carolina look like in year number two for Bryce Young needing and expecting a large
51:52improvement over his dismal rookie campaign and Dave Canales now the head man in Charlotte. I am
52:00optimistic about the Panthers weirdly to go over five and a half wins despite me hammering them
52:06each and every week last year for being a disappointing football team and underdog in
52:10all 17 games and just for 11 and two against the spread. Does that change blew it from the
52:16very start in the big easy on Sunday? I mean, this is I appreciate that people are optimistic
52:22about the Panthers. I understand why to some extent it couldn't have gone any worse last year,
52:29right? But yeah, do we feel like they've fixed the major issues that they have offensive line
52:34Dave Canales comes in will he be more will he be more attuned to calling the game the way Bryce
52:40Young needs to have a game call for him? Do they have enough requisite a talent talent around him
52:45can see your league get and other new faces in Carolina provided a spark to the offense.
52:52I find it hard to believe that there'll be a huge transformation. I just think you need to
52:57see year over year improvement. I think it's a pretty low bar for success this year in Carolina.
53:03But on the flip side this weekend, I'm about as down on the Saints as anybody that I know.
53:09I just don't think this is going to go well this year. I think this offensive line that used to be
53:14a strength has started to deteriorate quite a bit and I think the car Allen marriage might be a long
53:20one in life, but it is not a successful one on the field and I think it might spin out of control
53:26this year. So I expect a lot of low scoring games frankly from both of these teams as evidenced by
53:32this under I think the defenses could dominate this game. So I think you can look at first half
53:38unders second half unders and the under for the game even with it being 41 and a half, but I don't
53:44have high expectations for scoring in this game overall from a season trajectory standpoint though
53:51Ben, I think Carolina is probably on I could be on a better path than the Saints. All right,
53:58bloat. So I got to ask you because it can't get much worse than what it was a year ago for the
54:03Giants or it's so what are we getting against Minnesota and virtually a pick them game it met
54:12life. I mean, I hope they get this one the Giants. I hope they get this one.
54:20There's not a lot of W's out there for the G-men this year. This roster is not good enough. I have
54:27sympathy for Dable because he might be in a position where they're taking it on the chin
54:33every week and he hasn't really done anything to produce this team. This is Joe Shane's third
54:40offseason. Now. It's all you got here six months ago that the hard knocks and everything make it
54:45seem like ah, this guy's coming in and building a new team. I like he's been here two years. They
54:50still don't have a quarterback at you. All the first round picks are leaving or aren't good
54:55enough. And I think they're really going to struggle the Giants and the commanders are in
55:01the second tier of that division and way more people are bullish including yourself are bullish
55:07about the commanders Outlook than the Giants. I think you take the home dog points here only
55:12because both of these teams could struggle and can Dable and O'Connell match wits here to get
55:18some creative play calling and get some gets put up some scores, but I'm just taking the points
55:24here only because I don't see a lot of opportunities for the Giants long-term and I
55:28think Minnesota has a lot of holes as well. Can Sam Darnold go on the road and get a win in his
55:32first game? I have my doubts. I was going to bet the Vikings so hard in this game and still might
55:39as well do our pick six in our number three if it was a fully healthy Minnesota team, but it's not
55:46Sam Darnold gets the start week number one, which might have been in the cards. Even if JJ McCarthy
55:51had a full training camp. It was not out with the fully torn meniscus for all of 2024, but TJ
55:57Hawkinson one of the best tight ends in the National Football League a season ago on the pup list to
56:03begin. How good is Justin Jefferson? And what can Brian Flores do for this Minnesota defense year
56:09over year to continue to improve blue to your point as Ranieri said can't get much worse for
56:15the Jeep head. We're about to find out the only redeeming thing for the Giants booked as a dog
56:20and all but one contest a year ago. They were eight seven and one against the spread not
56:26necessarily a huge spread to try to cover more so a pick them in MetLife blue. We'll see you on
56:32Newswire and on Sunday week number one on in-game live game day alongside Renee our number three