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00:00It is time for our Week 10 NFL Pick Six. A reminder, here are the six categories in the
00:09Pick Six. Our favorite touchdown scorer, a Moneyline underdog to pull off the outright
00:13upset, Altline with a sprinkle of plus money, our favorite yardage prop of the weekend,
00:19and we combine forces for a two-leg six-point teaser. This week, I promise, it is going
00:25to hit. So, Joe, we saw the board very similarly in a couple of spots last week. We start the
00:31same way here, entering Week 10 in the second half. We've got the same touchdown scorer.
00:37I'll let you bat leadoff.
00:38Well, yeah, to me, I'm going to go to that Philadelphia-Dallas game, and I'm going to
00:43look at Jalen Hurts for a tush-push goal here, which has become quite the staple of the Eagles'
00:51scoring drives. I think it's hit in three games now, three straight games, four of the
00:56last five, which is odd, because you'd think with Saquon Barkley on the team that he'd
01:01be some sort of TD machine, but he's not. He gets him to the goal line, and then they
01:07trust Jalen Hurts in the offensive line to get him in there at plus money, at even money,
01:13quite honestly. I don't see any reason not to expect that to happen against this Dallas
01:18defense.
01:20Joe, it's one of the reasons that it was my favorite touchdown scorer as well. Plus 105
01:25for a guy that has scored six touchdowns in the last three games, that has multiple touchdowns
01:31then, of course, in two of the last three. A guy that has scored in five of the eight
01:35games his team has played this year in four of the last five. If he wasn't a quarterback,
01:41that number would be minus 185. Derek Henry was minus 260 to hit Pater, but it's because
01:48he's a quarterback, and still the main thing he does is throw the football to others and
01:53hand the football off to others who are reportedly having better chances to find Pater. Not in
01:58this Eagles offense. If it's the tush push, great. If it's Hurts just utilizing his legs
02:05against a banged up Dallas, an atrocious Dallas defense, who is third worst in the league
02:10at defending the run, great. Plus 105 for Jalen Hurts to find Pater. Moneyline underdog,
02:18that might pull off the outright upset, Geroneri. Which game are you targeting?
02:22Well, I am going to go to the Indianapolis Colts taking on the Buffalo Bills here. And
02:32listen, there aren't a ton of great looking dogs here, but I do think that there is a
02:38big letdown coming here for the Buffalo Bills. On deck is the Kansas City Chiefs here. And
02:46listen, as good as they have looked, and they have looked good, dropping 30 points on what?
02:51Their last three games on teams? I just feel like Indy coming off a terrible game. Joe
02:58Flacco, they've obviously made the decision that if they're going to make the playoffs,
03:02they're going to do it with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I think they got a pretty good
03:06shot of catching this in a flat spot here for Buffalo, maybe looking ahead. Not only
03:11would I take the points, I would definitely sprinkle on the money line here. Oh, and by
03:15the way, this is now the what? Fifth road game in seven days and seven games here for
03:20Buffalo. It's not been a great schedule. No, it is not. And they are back home next week
03:26in week 11 hosting the Chiefs. That will be a big game for Buffalo, where the Bills have
03:30had the upper hand and the advantage in regular season matchups against KC. Of course, it's
03:36been a different story come the postseason. Last week, Joe, I actually thought the Colts
03:40would stay in the game Sunday night in Minneapolis, maybe even strike the upset because you let
03:46Joe Flacco go and let him rip through the ball 27 times for less than a buck 80 and
03:51a pick. That cannot be the offense that Shane Steichen desires. If Flacco is the answer,
03:57if he's going to perform like that and you're going to lose and not cover against teams
04:02like Minnesota, just play Anthony Richardson. All that to say, I don't expect it to be the
04:07same recipe for Flacco at home. I think we see some points and I think it is a trappy
04:12spot for Buffalo. The Colts were also a perfect five and oh against the spread team as a dog
04:18entering Sunday night last week. This could be a challenging game for the Buffalo Bills.
04:23My Moneyline underdog, the Pittsburgh Steelers, not just because the Steelers are a great
04:28underdog, as we know, under Mike Tomlin or even recently, they've been a dog twice this
04:33year. They've won outright in both of those games. They are 13 and 11 as an underdog post
04:39Big Ben. That's the start of 2022 along with the Chiefs. They are the only two underdog
04:44teams that have a winning record outright in that span. I also just believe, although
04:50the commanders are a really good team and will make the playoffs, they're not going
04:55to just win every game the remainder of the way. So I think they come back down ever so
05:01slightly and Pittsburgh has figured something out with Russell Wilson as its starting quarterback.
05:06Not that Justin Fields did not. He was four and two as a starter. Quickly, Joe, you're
05:10under of the weekend is what? I'm going to stick in that game. The Bills and the and
05:16the Colts here again, Bills playing their fifth road game in seven weeks, coming off
05:21an emotional win over a division rival in Miami Chiefs on deck. And if you if the Colts
05:29are going to have a chance and I think they're a live dog here, they're not going to be alive.
05:33They're not going to have a chance of winning this in a shootout. I think they have to limit
05:37Buffalo. I think they will. And I think we're going to get less than the 47 and a half points.
05:42Yeah, you know, I do think we see some points, but that's a lofty total, right? And if Buffalo
05:48was going to be on upset alert, maybe it keeps this game under as well. I'll give you my
05:53favorite under of the weekend and we'll continue the week 10 NFL pick six live right here on
05:59a football Friday on the early line on sports. Great. Come back and join us after the break.
06:04We continue our week 10 NFL pick six, our favorite bets for the weekend that is about
06:09to come around the national football league. Joe, your favorite under Bills Colts under
06:1448 now 47 and a hook. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's kind of the theme for the Titans
06:20and the Chargers under 38 and a half. Again, you find me 39 points. As I said last week
06:25between the Titans in the past and the game even went to overtime and stayed under I shake
06:29your hand. The Chargers have gone under in seven of eight games this year in four of
06:35their five wins. Tennessee has scored 17 points or less in all six of their losses as a two
06:41and six football team. And if you put the guy wearing eight in that white uniform, we'll
06:46let us back on the field. Alternate under 31 and a half. I'm going to continue to think
06:52this game stays under the Titans are a good rush defense, but LA is going to just want
06:58to run the football for the most part. Game stays under 38 and a half. Even journey if
07:07you're all live with a little bit of plus money does hit and that would be the quarterback
07:12for the bolts on that side of the game against Tennessee. Yeah, I'm going to look to Justin
07:17Herbert over his one and a half touchdown passes here. And let's face it. The Chargers
07:24early in the season were a running team. Why? Well, a lot of that had to do with the fact
07:29that Herbert was hurt. You don't forget the the foot injuries. He's sustained during training
07:34camp. Well, I can tell you in the last couple of games. Yeah, he's averaging 38 dropbacks
07:4022 completions 287 yards a game. He's already cashed this prop twice in a row in the
07:47Titans. Yeah. Well, when you look at the quarterbacks, the Titans have faced Jared
07:52Goff, Josh Allen, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers. Guess what? All of them through more than
07:57one and a half touchdown passes. No reason to think that the scoring is only coming from
08:02the Chargers and chances are a couple of touchdown passes in the future for Herbert. And I'm
08:08cool with that. By the way, in all five wins for LA, it was my favorite TD score last week
08:13for a reason. Almost thought about just going back to it because the Bolts are a seven and
08:17a half point favorite. JK Dobbins has scored a touchdown, even if they get four touchdowns
08:22and it's 28 something. I think it still stays under 38 and a half. Alt line. You gave yours
08:31there plus 125. Mine is the 49ers team total over 33 and a half. Now the Niners team total
08:39is in the upper twenties just as it is against Tampa Bay. Total for the game is 50 and a
08:45half San Francisco with the addition and the return and the season debut of Christian McCaffrey
08:50is a six and a half point favorite now. And so it really doesn't take much to get it to
08:55plus money. Three and a half is plus one Oh two 31 and a half is like plus one 16. I was
09:02like I'm trying to give out a real bit of plus money. So we go over 33 and a half at
09:08plus 200. The Niners in all four wins this year. They're just four and four, but in all
09:14four wins, San Francisco has gone over. San Francisco has covered. San Francisco has scored
09:19at least 30 points. The Buccaneers shorthanded have allowed at least 27 points in each of
09:26their last five games. They have also sadly dropped four of their last five and they have
09:30allowed at least 30 points in all four of those losses. And let's remember what San
09:36Francisco did out of the by last year against Jacksonville. They had lost three straight
09:42ending out in week number eight at a week nine by they play a competitive Jaguars team
09:46on the other side. They blitz them 34 to three to start a six game win streak, San Francisco
09:53with a good sprinkle of plus money. And don't forget, you don't have to go all the way up
09:57to 33 and a half in terms of that alt market, but I did 33 and a half at plus 200 over for
10:03the 49ers team. Total favorite yardage prop of the weekend. Joe Ranieri, who are you targeting?
10:10I am going to head to the Washington and Pittsburgh game. I'm going to look at Najee Harris over
10:17his 63 and a half total rushing yards. And let's face it. You mentioned it earlier, Ben,
10:23since Russell Wilson has taken over as the Pittsburgh QB, he has rushed 19 plus times
10:30in both games for over 100 yards each time going up against a Washington defense that
10:37is surrendering the fourth most rushing yards a game. I thought the game total was too low.
10:42And I also think this rushing prop number is too low, given that they have much more
10:49balance with the threat of the long ball here and the ability to be able to push the ball
10:54downfield. I think Najee Harris is primed to have another big game on the ground in
10:59this one. Yeah. And Joe, based on that yardage prop, it doesn't even have to be all that
11:06big. Najee Harris has reached the century mark in three consecutive games. That number
11:11is 63 and a half. The giants, the New York football giants put up 164 rushing yards against
11:19the commanders last week. I don't know. I mean, that's just expecting the Steelers not
11:25to be a great offense, but they haven't been pretty bad at all this year, but certainly
11:31with Russell Wilson, really intriguing number that I think is a discount. I think the Bears
11:38win big on Sunday back in Chicago. I think being back home after the tumultuous last
11:44two weeks is going to be a good ingredient for the Bears against the Patriots defense
11:50that against the run is also bottom 10 in the NFL. And Joe, the Chicago Bears are a
11:55perfect three and oh at home in soldier field in the windy city. And they have been a favorite
12:00in all three games and they have covered the number. And DeAndre Swift has been a big reason
12:04why at least in their last two home victories, DeAndre Swift, 82 scrimmage yards in the last
12:10five games. But prior to last week, when the Bears looked rather lifeless in Arizona, at
12:15least 119 scrimmage yards in four straight 93 and a half is the rushing plus receiving
12:22yards prop against the new wing and Patriots. I initially thought of just his rushing yards
12:27number in the low seventies, but he is so involved in the past game out of the backfield
12:31as well, especially as the Bears scroll to protect Kayla Williams. I was like, if I only
12:36got to add on 20, fine over 93 and a half for DeAndre Swift against that Patriots defense
12:42on Sunday. Yeah, I, I know that's another number, Ben. That's a bit head scratching
12:47to me. I am with you. I expect another big effort on the ground there. The less you ask
12:54of your rookie quarterback, I think the better in games like this. And you need it, right?
12:59And you hope the Bears are bought back in because that would be the only thing that scares me
13:03about Chicago winning big on Sunday is the locker room done after Matt Eber,
13:09Flozer and Shane Waldron have just ruined the last two weeks in the prospect of a promising
13:15rookie season for Kayla Williams. We combine forces for our two-way six-point teaser to round
13:21out the pick six next. We round out this football Friday live right here on the early line on
13:27sports grid. We finish off the pick six. We recap the pick six to give you our favorite bets
13:33for week. Number 10, the second half of the 2024 NFL season now officially underway. We have not
13:40been great in our six-point two-leg teasers. One of us has been missing pretty much each and every
13:46week, not this week, even extended into Monday. I hope we even see Monday because I'll go off
13:53first, Joe, and then you can round us out. My pick is Sunday, the 49ers. I expect San Francisco to
14:00win big as the odds do as well. Six and a half point spread on the road against the shorthanded
14:05Buccaneers. Now, Tampa is three and three against the spread this year as an underdog. You saw them,
14:11of course, force overtime and cover as a nine and a half point dog against Kansas City. I don't think
14:16that's going to continue this week, but even outside of that, I'll take the Niners from a six
14:21and a half point favorite down through three and basically just say, win the game, San Francisco,
14:27which is what I think they do comfortably. 49ers at a pick-em price. Joe, let's go to Monday night
14:33and your second leg to anchor this six-point teaser. Yeah, and listen, I'm just, are we at
14:39the point now where we're thinking the Rams are just going to run away from teams here? And I
14:44like the Rams. I like that the defense has gotten healthier. It's gotten better, but I'm sorry. I,
14:52you know, being able to get the Dolphins over a touchdown, they're a one and a half point dog
14:56right now, teasing it up to seven and a half. I, I, to me, it's a one score game two and now
15:03has had a couple of weeks. They should have won that game against Buffalo last week. I definitely
15:08think they're going to be able to take advantage here of that young secondary of the Rams.
15:13Uh, expect a big game from Tyreek Hill and company. I think they have a shot at not only
15:19covering this man, but maybe even winning it outright. So I'll go ahead and take the seven
15:23and a half points with Miami. The fins have not been a great underdog with Mike McDaniel,
15:29who became the core coach, of course, in South Florida to start 2022. They are just seven and
15:3411 against the spread as an underdog did cover last week against Buffalo, but Joe Miami can't
15:40just cover anymore. They need to win games outright. So two and six, they have three,
15:47just three outright wins in those 18 games as a dog with McDaniel as the head coach.
15:53It is the second fewest in the NFL of any underdog in double digit games in that two
15:59and a half year span. Only the chargers who have just one outright win as an underdog since 2022
16:05has less than Miami. All right, Joe, let's go back to the pick six. Make sure everybody has
16:10every single selection for Sunday and Monday. Rattle off your pick six in full just to recap
16:17everything on this board. Sure. Going to Jalen Hurts. Anytime touchdown, we're going to look at
16:23Indy as your money line underdog. I do like the under though in that Buffalo and Colts game.
16:29Justin Herbert will be my all line going up and over one and a half touchdown passes.
16:35Najee Harris over 63 and a half rushing yards. And the teaser leg for me will be the Miami
16:42Dolphins getting seven and a half. Like that, take it through the two key numbers of three and
16:48seven. It's now seven and a hook. I'll start with my favorite touchdown score. It's the same exact
16:53guy. It's Philadelphia's quarterback in Dallas on Sunday, Jalen Hurts at plus 105. We said it,
16:59Joe, I'm breaking it down. He's got six rushing touchdowns in the last three games. If that was
17:04the case for anybody not playing quarterback, the number would be minus 150. It's plus 105.
17:09I like that price. Dallas is atrocious defensively. My money line underdog,
17:13the Steelers to win outright against the commanders. Still think Washington is a good
17:17team. I just think the Steelers are a great underdog in both of their games. And they dog
17:22this year, they won outright. They're 13 and 11 straight up as an underdog since the start of
17:272022. My favorite under Titans chargers under 38 and a half. You're going to play Will Levis.
17:33Good luck Titans offense. And if you're playing the chargers who have gone under and seven of
17:37eight games points at a premium alt line 49ers with Christian McCaffrey back over their team
17:43total of 33 and a half at plus 200. Again, you can still get plus money on a lower alternate.
17:49I just think they go off against the shorthanded Buccaneers who have allowed 30 points in four of
17:54their last five games, all four losses. My favorite yardage property, Andre Swift over
18:00the combo number rushing plus receiving of 93 and a half against the new England Patriots,
18:06Chicago at home. I expect them to win comfortably as do I expect the 49ers take them down from a
18:12six and a half point road favorite in Tampa to just a pick them price against the Buccaneers.
18:17Joe, that's that for a football Friday. I'll see you tomorrow on a Saturday, my man for college
18:22football. Looking forward to it. Great games tomorrow here, Ben. Let's go. We're that much
18:29closer to a 12 team playoff. Ooh. And I think you're working at, you're working at that game
18:34time decisions, right? Yeah. I'm pretty sure that I'll be there. Have a wonderful Friday
18:38journey and to all of you have a wonderful weekend. The other line is back on.