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00:00Welcome back to a football Friday live right here on the
00:03early line. Our final half hour of every football Friday gets
00:07you ready for the weekend in the National Football League.
00:10That's Sunday slate only twelve games this Sunday because it's
00:14our first weekend of buys around the NFL. The Titans, the Lions,
00:19the Eagles, and the Chargers all have that early by week to
00:22start this season week number five but still twelve games
00:26really at thirteen the last two weekends because we had a
00:29double header of Monday Night Football. So still pretty
00:31robust. We've got our first London game of the year and in
00:35every final half hour of a football Friday, we give you
00:39our pick six. It's our picks, our previews, our best bets for
00:43a Sunday slate around the National Football League. Maybe
00:46this is your first football Friday. Maybe you need a
00:49refresher. Here's what the pick six is. Our favorite anytime
00:52touchdown score of the weekend. Somebody to hit Pater. Our
00:55favorite money line underdog. Somebody to win outright in
00:58what has been the year of the dog. Our favorite under of the
01:01weekend. An alt line that we like with a little bit of plus
01:05money to boot. A yardage prop across the entirety of the
01:09slate. That is our favorite and then we combine forces for a
01:13two-leg six-point teaser that we need to be better at doing
01:17but we will find that mojo and rhythm entering week number
01:20five that I have no doubt. Germonary, please begin. Your
01:24favorite anytime touchdown score of the weekend is who and
01:27in what game? Alright, so I am going to start uh with this
01:32Washington and Cleveland Browns game and I am going to
01:36look to Jaden Daniels with an anytime touchdown score in this
01:42one. Uh listen, I do think this is the best defense that uh
01:46Washington will have seen. This is uh now what? Some tape here
01:50on this. I do think the Browns defense will be able to cause
01:55some havoc. I do think Daniels is going to have to rely on his
01:59legs more in this one. Washington has run the ball
02:02very well. He's already has four rushing touchdowns already
02:05on the season at plus money here. I have no doubt that
02:09Jaden Daniels will likely have to run another one in in this
02:13game. So, I will back him to get that done at plus money. It
02:18is crazy to think of the numbers that Jaden Daniels has
02:22put up. Of course, he was named the NFL offensive rookie of the
02:25month for the opening month of this NFL season in September.
02:2982.1% completion percentage. It is the best for a quarterback
02:34in the National Football League through the opening four games
02:37of a season in league history. He also leads the NFL in
02:43quarterback rushing touchdowns at four. He has scored in three
02:47of four games including last week against Arizona. He had
02:52number one against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I like the
02:56number Joe. They have used his legs. They have incorporated
02:59his running ability. It is why they don't punt because he
03:03keeps picking up first downs moving the sticks with his
03:06legs as well. I'm going to look at Aaron Jones in the Sunday
03:11game in London plus 110. Aaron Jones has been a revelation for
03:16this Minnesota offense. Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson,
03:19great for sure, but I think Aaron Jones is one of the
03:22reasons it is making this Vikings offense tick. He has
03:25109 total yards in three of the four games. He's got 139
03:30scrimmage yards in the last two weeks for Minnesota and the
03:35Jets are good against the pass. They're a little bit weak
03:38stopping the run so far this year up front and they were a
03:42year ago and for how great Aaron Jones has been Joe in
03:46terms of yardage. He's not been great in finding Peter only
03:50two total touchdowns so far this season, including a
03:53rushing score way back in week number one. That's it. Two
03:56total touchdowns. I think he is rewarded for his yardage
04:00production on Sunday in London finding Peter for the third
04:03time this year at plus 110. Yeah. No, I got no problem with
04:08that too. II do think that it's going to be an interesting
04:12Game Ben on a Sunday morning at 9 AM. It's actually a game
04:17that we should all be very excited to see because
04:20Minnesota heading into their bye week. What version of
04:23Minnesota do we get are they going into the bye week five
04:26and open. Now that would be something the Chiefs don't play
04:32until Monday night against the New Orleans Saints and Casey is
04:35a five and a half point favorite. There's a chance that
04:40the Vikings are the undefeated team to pace everybody at five
04:43and oh at the end of Sunday slate or by the time that Casey
04:48kicks off on Monday night. They're the only unbeaten team
04:51left might we see unbeatens be done by the end of week five.
04:56Casey is a favorite so is Minnesota, but the Vikings
04:59laying two and a half Joe. You just said will the Vikings be
05:03five and oh after London entering the bye week you say
05:07no. Why do you think the Jets are going to win outright on
05:10Sunday? I'm sorry Ben just teed myself up there, but yes the
05:15answer is absolutely not Ben Stevens. There is not going to
05:19be an undefeated Vikings team heading into their bye week and
05:24listen. This is a classic by low sell high everyone's running
05:29left. I am running right in this game here and I believe it
05:33to be because a couple of different things the Jets
05:37coming into this after an absolutely horrific loss
05:41getting out of Met life getting out of the New York media
05:44heading to London in order to play a game here in which let's
05:49face it the penalties last week. What 1413 1415 penalties
05:53they killed themselves. That's very fixable here. The cadence
05:57issues very fixable here. Aaron Rodgers certainly I think took
06:03some responsibility for how terrible they were against the
06:06Blitz. They know the Blitz is coming this week. I think it
06:09was a great warm up came a Denver who blitz them 43% of the
06:13time. I do think that Sam Donald this will be the best
06:17match up defensively that he has had. I don't trust Sam
06:21Donald. I think the entire market world is way too high in
06:25the Vikings great opportunity to get the Jets by low on the
06:29Jets in this one. They will win this game outright. You know
06:33what's so fascinating Joe. It's one of the conversations that
06:36we had following week one. The Jets opening weekend of the
06:40year on the road in San Francisco against a Super Bowl
06:44favorite in the 49ers. Of course, they were the underdog
06:47and they did not cover, but then they were a favorite against
06:50Tennessee. They were a favorite week three laying near a
06:53touchdown against the Patriots and a favorite last week laying
06:56more than a touchdown against the Broncos. Of course lost that
06:59game outright, but the question was how many more times is this
07:03team going to be booked as a dog this season with all of the
07:07expectations because they've been an underdog 43 times since
07:11Robert Sala took over as the head coach in 2021 in a favorite
07:15now just 11. They're an underdog once again, but an underdog
07:20people are looking at to make some noise across the pond to
07:23start off our Sunday slate. I go to the Las Vegas Raiders plus
07:27110 against Denver first game for the Broncos this year
07:31booked as a favorite a season ago in that match or in those
07:36games under Sean Payton three five and one against the spread
07:39not a great underdog team or a favorite team by any means and
07:44Joe. There's something about Antonio Pierce in my
07:46estimation that allowed him to be the permanent head coach. It
07:49was the buy in from a locker room. He talked about it
07:53following week two business decisions were made or maybe
07:56week three business decisions were made by members of the
07:59Raiders. Was he directly referring to Devonte Adams
08:03Devonte Adams is no longer with Las Vegas. He is not going to
08:06play in this game. A hamstring injury is what they are calling
08:10it until he is dealt. I think there's a lot of buy in right
08:14now for the Raiders a belief in this organization entering this
08:19game against Denver that hey the guys that don't want to be
08:23here. They're not really going to be a part of this franchise.
08:26They'll go into Denver and win outright on the road on Sunday
08:30in mile high. The Broncos defense very good, but the
08:34Broncos have their two wins this year. Joe when booked as
08:36an underdog of five and a half points or greater in the year
08:40of the dog too bad. Denver is now the favorite.
08:45Yeah, this feels like a big letdown spot here for the
08:48Broncos who have now allowed teams single digit scoring and
08:52back-to-back games. I I think this is in for a bit of a rude
08:57awakening. I am with you on this one here. Ben can't trust
09:00Denver. They should win with all the injuries to the Raiders,
09:03but why is this a big letdown spot? The Broncos have been
09:08great defensively the last two weeks. If that continues, we're
09:12not going to see a ton of points in this game. It's the
09:14lowest total of the weekend at 35 and a half. We continue to
09:18pick six now when Joe and I started our week five pick six
09:23around the National Football League for the Sunday slate. We
09:25were very complimentary of each other. Great. Anytime touchdown
09:29score. Oh, I like that underdog to win outright as well. This is
09:34where it gets a little bit interesting because we are
09:36seeing offensive output and point production this week for
09:40Sunday vastly differently. Let's look at the unders our favorite
09:45unders of the weekend. Joe and Harry, please begin. Well,
09:51yeah, no, Ben, you and I are going to be on opposite sides
09:53of this one here, but I am absolutely looking at the under
09:58with Cincinnati and Baltimore now under 49 after ballooning
10:04up as high as 50 and a half and listen, the if I'm not
10:09mistaken right now at last look here totals above 50 or four and
10:14oh to the under this season in the in the NFL and if you go
10:18back to last season total sitting at 50 or higher or 16
10:22and four to the under the public loves them some overs the
10:27public looks at this and goes. Oh wow. This is going to be on
10:31the Cincinnati defense is terrible. This is going to be
10:34points points and more points. Well, you've got a NF an AFC
10:39North divisional battle in which these two teams know each
10:42other extremely well. What we don't realize here is that
10:46Cincinnati is getting their reinforcements back on the
10:49defensive side of the ball. Hendrickson is going BJ Hill is
10:54back in the middle. Miles Murphy back in the middle of
10:58that Cincinnati defensive line. Ultimately, listen, we know what
11:02the Ravens are. They're a running team. They run on over
11:0655% of their plays. They're going to keep trying to run
11:10against this Bengals team because of Lamar Jackson's your
11:13option of having to drop back and throw 4050 times in a game.
11:18That's not a great recipe for success for this Ravens team. I
11:21think the Bengals defense steps up. These two teams don't like
11:25each other. Don't don't actually I would not expect this
11:30to be one of those games in which I think both will have
11:34some success scoring Ben, but that is a big number to go over
11:38that's got blowout written all over it and I don't think so. I
11:41think this game is much tighter much more like a field goal.
11:45It's more 2421 to me than anything reaching 30 points. So
11:51let me just go to my alt line then because I love points in
11:54this matchup Ravens Bengals over 53 and a half at plus 162. Now
12:00the very compelling points that you said with confidence
12:03journey about the Bengals getting their defensive
12:05reinforcements does scare me a little bit off my belief that
12:09we see an over on Sunday afternoon in Cincy, but based
12:14on trends, the Bengals right now over in their last three
12:17games with at least 51 points scored in all three where
12:21Cincy has allowed at least 24 points. They are averaging 25
12:26and a half points per game. That's top ten right now in
12:29terms of scoring offensive output in the NFL Baltimore
12:32Inside the top five at 26 and a half points per game and the
12:36Ravens defense hasn't been all that stellar either really good
12:40last week against Buffalo outside of that the Raiders
12:43came back and beat them. KC scored 27 on the opening night
12:48and the Cowboys game alters these numbers just a little bit,
12:51but Baltimore still allowing more than 22 points per game and
12:56since he has struggled defending the run this year,
12:58allowing more than 145 yards on the ground. I think it's a
13:02tight game. I think we trade scores back and forth. I think
13:07we see some points. That's my line Joe and I disagree. Here's
13:12my under in a game that thinks we see some points on Sunday. I
13:17go to Jacksonville. The Jags a two and a half point home
13:21favorite. I go under 46 and a half against Indianapolis
13:24Jacksonville right now time for the third worst scoring
13:27offense in the National Football League averaging just
13:29fifteen points per game. They have been under in three of
13:33their four. In fact, only 31 points scored in their only home
13:38game in Duval County. It was week two against Cleveland
13:41eighteen to thirteen. The final there the only game
13:44Jacksonville has been booked as the favorite as well and the
13:48main concern for me Joe with Indianapolis is not really
13:52Anthony Richardson status. I think Joe Flacco can move the
13:54football and Shane Steichen's offense, but I think it will be
13:57more difficult for Flacco without being able to rely on
14:01Jonathan Taylor, who is listed as questionable at the moment,
14:05but he doesn't have props out. He's on my fantasy team. He
14:08doesn't have a projected score out as of this moment. I think
14:12we stay under 46 and a half in Jacksonville on Sunday. Yeah, I
14:18mean listen II think a desperate Jacksonville team is gonna have
14:22to put up a lot of points in order to win this game because
14:25the injuries on the defensive side are not going to allow
14:28them to get after anybody. I don't care who the quarterback
14:31is for Indy here so Steichen likes to go up tempo in spots
14:36here. I think it's gonna be a fascinating. I don't love the
14:40over. It's the only way I would lean Ben, but I do think
14:44there's an opportunity for Jacksonville to finally win a
14:48game and if they don't could that be the first firing of the
14:51year. Oh, I you are correct right Owen for start for the
14:57Jags. This is when job security is at stake. so I went slightly
15:02out of order. I went to my alt line because you were talking
15:05about the Bengals and the Ravens. Yeah, and that was my
15:08alt line. Your alt line. is what game? Yeah, my I'm gonna go
15:14all line. It's gonna be Green Bay here who I think is going
15:17to be able to name their score here. Now they did lose
15:21Christian Watson. He's out with a high ankle sprain, but
15:25one of their they have just a plethora of wide receivers,
15:29including a very good one in Wicks here that they're gonna
15:32be able to slot right in there for Watson. We saw what
15:36happened in the first half against Minnesota. There was
15:39some rust involved there with Jordan Love. We saw what they
15:43did in the second half though didn't we, which was go up
15:46tempo and that was a totally different team you watch there.
15:51This is one of the worst past defenses in the NFL. If not the
15:56worst, I think Green Bay is gonna put up a ton of points in
15:59this game. I think they're gonna wash the stink of that
16:02loss off against Minnesota. I think they got at least 30 plus
16:06points in this game coming their way against the Rams.
16:10Yeah. Listen Joe hard to fault that it's my favorite prop of
16:14the weekend for what you just mentioned. LA is the second
16:17worst total defense in the National Football League. They
16:20are not great against the pass not good news. They are also
16:24awful against the run. They are the worst rushing defense in
16:27the NFL. We'll talk our favorite yardage props of the
16:31weekend and then combine forces for a two-leg six-point teaser
16:35for Sunday next. We are live here on football Friday on the
16:40early line on sports grid. He is Geron. I am Ben Stevens. We
16:45round out our pick six with our final two components, our
16:48favorite yardage prop of the weekend and then a two-leg
16:51six-point teaser that did the opening four weeks. September
16:54was not kind to our teasers Joe, but they hit in week number
16:58five. It's been so hard in the year of the underdog because it
17:02makes sense to tease a team down from a touchdown favorite
17:05to a pick, but those touchdown favorites can't even win a game
17:08outright. I digress. Let's start with our favorite yardage prop
17:13of the weekend. Joe who is the player you are circling for
17:16week number five. So I am going to go to the Buffalo Bills and
17:22the Houston Texans game and I am going to focus on James Cook
17:27going up and over his rushing yards prop here one who was
17:33fifty-seven and a half. It might be a little bit higher
17:36there, but listen, we talked about it earlier here. This is
17:39not a good Houston Texans rushing defense. They're right
17:43around twenty-third in the NFL in rushing D this year. Cook
17:49only touched the ball ten times in that game against the Ravens
17:52on Sunday and I think a lot of that had to do with the fact
17:54that the Bills were behind the eight ball right away. I don't
17:58see that happening here. I also think that running the ball and
18:03being more balanced is exactly what the Bills want to be here.
18:08They don't want to put it all on Josh Allen. I think he's
18:11going to be a big part of the game plan against Houston. Take
18:14advantage of a team that's got to worry about Josh Allen
18:18running the ball in the passing game and also James Cook and I
18:21think he'll have a couple of really big runs and a big big
18:26part of the game plan against this Texans team. So I'm going
18:29to look over his rushing yard prop. The Houston Texans in the
18:34better half in the top sixteen, if you will of teams defending
18:38the run in the NFL, but those numbers are greatly skewed by
18:42one game Sunday night week two against the Bears. They gave up
18:46above 58 last week to Jacksonville. Jonathan Taylor
18:49had a nice day against them week number one even week
18:52number three. Joe Aaron Jones was the key component of
18:55Minnesota's offense. Love that look and James Cook has been
18:58doing it as a receiver as well. Maybe a combo prop if you like
19:02that the Rams though are the worst rushing defense in the
19:06National Football League, giving up more than 165 yards
19:09per game on the ground. So I look at Josh Jacobs 62 and a
19:14half is the number if you watch the game last week against
19:17Minnesota, they were down 28 zip. That was the Packers
19:21Jordan Love was a little bit too healthy. Skelter. I think
19:23for Matt Lafleur is liking in terms of winning football games.
19:27I think they focus on the ground. Once again, Josh Jacobs
19:3084 yards in his first two games with Green Bay at least sixteen
19:34attempts in both. He has been under this number of 62 and a
19:37half two consecutive weeks, but last week Joe a bright spot
19:41again. They could not run it often because they were
19:44trailing by four touchdowns in about 22 minutes of game
19:48action, but still nine carries 51 yards 5.7 yards per pop for
19:55Josh Jacobs. I think he has a good day against the Rams who
19:59are the worst rushing defense in the National Football League
20:03because 62 and a half is not an awfully large number for
20:07Jacobs to go over and like you Joe. I think Green Bay names
20:10their number. I think they have a great offensive day in LA and
20:14get win number one with Jordan Love starting under center this
20:18year. Alright here we go. Come on first Sunday in October week
20:22number five. This is when it hits two legs six point teaser
20:26Joe your leg first, please. No well listen don't feel too bad
20:31because long teasers have been absolute garbage this season
20:35thus far, but I'm with you. I think that might change here and
20:40I am going to go out West and I'm going to look at the
20:44Seattle Seahawks. I'm going to tease them down to right around
20:47a pick them there Ben. I'm just asking them to win the game
20:52here and I think they will do that and I think it'll do it
20:55rather easily as they will be much better defensively five
21:00starters back on the field defensive line linebacker and
21:04secondary members all back. It's going to be a long day for
21:08the Giants, so I need Seattle to win this game. The Giants
21:12already tied for the third worst scoring offense in the NFL.
21:16I'm not really sure where they find the output, especially
21:18with the uncertainty around Malik neighbors. He is in
21:21concussion protocol now. I think Buffalo deserves to be
21:25the favorite in Houston. I think the game is kind of too
21:28close to call so I'll take the Texans to through through two
21:32key numbers up from a point and a half dog to over a touchdown
21:36underdog again Houston with CJ Stroud seven and four against
21:40the spread as an underdog last year. They have not been a dog
21:43yet this season. I think the game is close at least decided
21:46by less than a touchdown. He is germinary. I am Ben Stevens.
21:50Thanks for tuning in to a football Friday. We'll see on
21:53Monday on the early line at 8 a.m. East until then have a
21:56great weekend.