IHSG naik 0,87% ke 7.897,42 sesi I Kamis (19/9). Secara intraday IHSG kembali sentuh New ATH di 7.903,325. Sektor properti dan real estat +2,05% PANI +8,84%, LPKR +10,53%. Sektor infrastruktur +1,51% BREN +4,20%. Sektor keuangan +0,91% BBRI +2,80%, BBCA 2,12% sentuh New ATH di Rp10.850. Sementara Sektor teknologi -2,71% GOTO -4,92%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment we will review how the trade is going on today.
00:11And we remind you again that you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 08.12.8788.7723
00:19as shown on your television screen later.
00:21And today we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Octavianus Audi, who is the Head of Customer Literation and Education at PTQ Home Securities Indonesia.
00:30Mr. Audi, good afternoon. How are you?
00:33Good afternoon, Mr. David. I'm fine, thank you.
00:35Thank you, Mr. Audi, for taking the time to be on IDH Channel.
00:39Today, the Samkabungan family is still continuing Mr. Audi's strength.
00:43It has even surpassed the 7,900 level.
00:47And intraday, today it has also reached its highest level in a long time.
00:51Your analysis, the strength that continues right now, is it still supported by volume?
00:57And from a technical point of view, is the position already stable or not?
01:02Yes, okay. So, if we look at it, the push is still the same, the sentiment is still the same,
01:08related to euphoria, related to a relationship that turns out to be more aggressive.
01:14And if we look at it technically, yes, it is already in the stable zone or overbought.
01:19So, if we use the relative strength index, the value is already at level 76.
01:25And we have also indicated this.
01:28Even though if we talk about the volume of transactions,
01:31it turns out that the increase in ESG is still pushed by the increase in transactions itself.
01:36But it is far from being seen in a bigger picture.
01:40Actually, we also ask, the aggressiveness done by the Fed,
01:44maybe there is something that has happened or is anticipated to happen in the future,
01:51in a negative connotation.
01:52So, for now, it will be a fresh wind for ESG,
01:56which turns out that today the highest level of 7,900 can be achieved too.
02:02So, for the next, we do see resistance at level 8,000.
02:06And for the support level, in the short term, we see at level 7,800 for now.
02:13Okay, in the short term, where are you headed, Mr. Odi?
02:16Tomorrow is the weekend, is there a potential for profit taking?
02:20And how much support should be paid attention to for the SMEs?
02:24Yes, so if we talk about the weekend,
02:29ESG will happen, or the movement to the market will be slower.
02:33And even if we talk for now, is there a potential for profit taking?
02:38Yes, we see a lot of potential.
02:39Because some stocks, especially the big banks, have recorded significant increases.
02:45It means that there is a chance for profit taking,
02:49and the sentiment is usually quite significant towards the movement of ESG.
02:55So, we do see that there is still a chance for profit taking.
02:59And actually, if we talk about how much,
03:02if there is a correction that ESG is still considered reasonable,
03:06or the correction is positive, it is at level 7,800.
03:10That is the moving average of 20 days.
03:12Because as long as it stays above 20 days,
03:16on average 20 days, we see that the correction is healthy,
03:20even this will be a potential bounce for up to 8,000, it is still very open.
03:26Okay, Mr. Odi, how do you see the policy issued by the Fed?
03:31It is unexpected that the Fed cut the correction at 50 basis points,
03:35while the Indonesian Bank only cut it at 25 basis points.
03:39What is your analysis?
03:40Yes, so actually if we look at the previous expectation of the Fed,
03:45this is indeed 25 basis points, and the Indonesian Bank is still holding.
03:50It turns out that this is more aggressive.
03:52That's why it was said at the beginning that it turns out that the Fed's expectation is much faster.
03:58And if we look at it, several indicators have shown spikes in the United States.
04:03One of them is from the data of U.S. employees,
04:06which is still at a fairly high level, 4.3% for unemployment rate.
04:10So this will be worse.
04:12But we also look further, why is it so aggressive?
04:17Because usually from the historical point of view,
04:19when the Fed is aggressive, there is something that will happen, in quotation marks.
04:25And in terms of U.S. employees or U.S. economy,
04:31this will be worse for the Indonesian Bank.
04:33And we also expect that the cut of the Indonesian Bank's flow rate
04:37or the 70% rate will be much slower than the Fed.
04:41In addition, they also signaled that there will be a cut in the flow rate.
04:47Yes, indeed.
04:48So we estimate that for this year,
04:50we will reduce it by 1% or 100 basis points from the highest level.
04:55So it is possible that in November and December there will be another cut,
05:00each with 25 basis points,
05:03so in total it will be 1% or 100 basis points.
05:06While for the Indonesian Bank,
05:08our expectation is less likely to cut 50 basis points to 75 basis points this year,
05:14or lower than the local cut by the Fed.
05:18Okay, some sectors today are quite responsive,
05:21related to the policy of Mr. Audi's flow rate cut.
05:24We go to the banks first, which today is the biggest supporter
05:28of joint value-added strengthening outside the brand share movement today.
05:32We go to the Bank of Indonesia first.
05:34Sandar's analysis of the strengthening of the new all-time high
05:38seems to be recreated for the price when the stock split was carried out a while ago,
05:42at IDR 10,875.
05:44Fundamentally, just in August,
05:46the Bank of Indonesia still continues clean energy,
05:49which experienced an increase of more than 13%.
05:52Sandar's analysis for the Bank of Indonesia,
05:54its support and resistance recommendations.
05:56Indeed, one of the favorite banks is the Bank of Indonesia,
06:01if we look at it a little bit,
06:03that the net profit margin generated by the Bank of Indonesia
06:06is higher than the other four big banks.
06:09That's why it's quite solid,
06:11it's one of the alternative investment options.
06:14And if we look at it technically,
06:17we see that there is a new level of resistance here,
06:20when he notes the highest level,
06:23currently at IDR 10,900, according to the closing.
06:29Hello, Mr. Audi.
06:34Mr. Audi,
06:35earlier there was a statement from the Bank of Indonesia
06:38strengthening at IDR 2,590.
06:40Mr. Audi, hello.
06:42Yes.
06:43Earlier there was a statement from the Bank of Indonesia
06:45strengthening at IDR 2,590.
06:48Yes, okay.
06:49For the Bank of Indonesia,
06:50it can still hold for those who already have it,
06:52or for trading by,
06:53with the closest resistance currently at IDR 11,750,
06:56with the support level at IDR 10,600.
07:01Okay.
07:02Analysis for the Bank of Indonesia,
07:04today closed at IDR 10,900.
07:07How is your analysis for the next strengthening space,
07:11in short, for the Bank of Indonesia?
07:13Yes, there will still be a potential for strengthening,
07:16but for now it has begun to be limited.
07:19For us to see, there are stages,
07:21earlier at IDR 11,990,
07:23once it breaks out,
07:24then the next is,
07:26at least up to IDR 11,500,
07:28it is still very potential.
07:30Okay.
07:31Is the prospect the same
07:32for several other B-CAP banks, sir?
07:35Yes, we think it will be the same,
07:37but why B-B-C-A is the strongest,
07:39in quotation marks,
07:41because in terms of net profit margin,
07:43it generates the biggest profit
07:45compared to other emitters.
07:47Overall, sectorally,
07:49banking has become favorable for now,
07:52so we still see potential in Mandiri,
07:55potential in BNI, and also in BNI.
07:57Okay.
07:58Outside of banking,
07:59the property seems to be responding positively today, sir.
08:02Quite a lot,
08:03such as Sukubunga Bank,
08:05then PPN is also extended until December.
08:09How do you see the movement
08:11of property stocks
08:12in the near future today,
08:14and which one do you recommend the most?
08:18Yes.
08:19As Mr. David has said,
08:21some positive sentiments from the sector,
08:23or for the property sector,
08:25are still there.
08:27Sukubunga Bank,
08:28we also expect that
08:30the demand for property stocks
08:32will rise again.
08:33Overall,
08:34below the house of the Union,
08:36which is 2 billion,
08:37with the debt or taxes
08:39still borne by the government,
08:40that will indeed be favorable.
08:42As for the emitter itself,
08:44which we like for now,
08:46there are several.
08:47First, we still see
08:49there is potential in Ciputra,
08:51CTRA,
08:52with the recommendation
08:53for trading by first,
08:55the resistance target is at 1400,
08:57and for the support level
08:59is at 1275.
09:01So that's the first Ciputra,
09:03then there is the next one,
09:05BSD,
09:06and BSD is also the same,
09:08we still recommend the second one
09:09for trading by,
09:10the resistance is at 1370,
09:13and for the support level
09:15is currently at level 1200.
09:18How do you see
09:19from the prospect side
09:21until the end of the year,
09:22for the shares of this property?
09:24When Sukubunga
09:26is seized by Bank Indonesia,
09:29the position of Sukubunga Credit
09:31will also be lowered like that.
09:33How do you see the effect,
09:35at least for the medium term
09:36and also for the long term?
09:38Yes, so if we talk
09:40more about the monetary policy,
09:42then also,
09:43actually until the end of this year,
09:45in addition to the existence
09:46of the Sukubunga investment,
09:47the sentiment is that
09:48it will not be held
09:49directly,
09:50direct impact,
09:51by lowering the Sukubunga Credit,
09:54but indeed,
09:55we also see
09:56on the other side of the booster push,
09:58that is from the government
09:59who is still an incentive government.
10:01Indeed, this is quite,
10:03the correlation is quite positive,
10:05if we look at it from several points of view,
10:07especially if we look at Ciputra,
10:09which has quite a lot of segmentation
10:10in the monetary policy classification,
10:12for the households in Baodong,
10:14and it turns out that
10:15the push is quite positive.
10:17So we do see
10:18with the existence of an incentive program
10:20from the government,
10:21we also still believe
10:22until the end of this year,
10:24it will become a booster
10:25or at least it can be a push
10:27to reach the marketing sales
10:28that are targeted by the emitters,
10:30especially those who have
10:32the largest sales union
10:33under 2 million.
10:35Okay, he said this also depends
10:36on the stock side, sir?
10:39Yes, of course.
10:41So indeed, if we look at
10:43the benefits again,
10:44if we talk about
10:45several property fields
10:46that do have portfolio diversification
10:48which is not only
10:50for example in Java Central,
10:51which is indeed spread,
10:52this will indeed become
10:53one of the pulls
10:55in the middle of the stock.
10:59The need for stock
11:00will not be found
11:02in the near future
11:04for the property,
11:05but indeed with the demand
11:06that we believe
11:07is still quite high,
11:08this will push the demand
11:09of the property itself.
11:11Okay, from our property,
11:12let's try to move, sir,
11:13to the technology sector.
11:15Is there a difference
11:17in the development
11:18of the domestic technology sector
11:19compared to the global side
11:21that has experienced
11:22a significant increase,
11:23the euphoria
11:24has been felt for a long time,
11:26but the conditions are different
11:27for the technology sector.
11:29Even throughout
11:30today's trade,
11:31on average,
11:32and yesterday's trade,
11:33the technology was under pressure.
11:34However, one of them is
11:36Goto,
11:37in the opposite direction,
11:39especially in several minutes
11:40before the closure
11:41of trade on the second side.
11:42Your analysis?
11:45Yes, so actually
11:46if we talk about technology,
11:47if we talk about it
11:48in the United States,
11:49in NASDAQ and so on,
11:51if we look at the revenue,
11:54it will be slightly different
11:56from the technology
11:58that we have in Indonesia.
11:59But if we look at it
12:00technically,
12:01technology in the short term
12:03has entered
12:04a bullish phase,
12:05after it managed
12:07to move above the long term.
12:09Specifically,
12:10if we talk about Goto,
12:11yesterday it was
12:12overall so far so good,
12:13and today it's back
12:14in the draw,
12:15which means
12:16it confirms that
12:17the support is quite strong
12:18at 58,
12:20with resistance,
12:21we see it will gradually
12:22for Goto itself.
12:23It can be observed
12:24at level 68,
12:25the first resistance,
12:26once it has broken 68,
12:27the next is at level 77.
12:29So it's still very interesting
12:31to try to observe.
12:33Okay, analysis
12:34for some stocks
12:35from the sector
12:36that is considered
12:37quite sensitive
12:38from the movement
12:39of the Bunga tribe,
12:40and again,
12:41the decision to invest
12:42is still in the hands
12:43of the IDF Channel.
12:49For more information,
12:50visit www.fema.gov