"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (20/12/2024) dengan tema IHSG Diproyeksi Menguat Terbatas atau Lanjut Downtrend?"
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00:00Thank you for joining us. Before we start our discussion this morning in Market Plus,
00:10we will take a look at the data, first of all, related to ESG, which has fallen to level 6,900,
00:14and the Rupiah fell to level 16,300 Rupiah per US Dollar.
00:18And also other things that are interesting for Richard Motila, related to Berdeka Copper Gold or MDK,
00:22which recorded an income of USD 1.66 billion per quarter in 2024,
00:28and the credit per bank grew by 10.79% annually in November 2024, the lowest since the beginning of the year.
00:35And next, related to the economic agenda from China,
00:38there is data on Suku Bunga Utama Credit PBOC in December,
00:42then there is also data on the IHK Inti Nasional Jepang year-on-year in November,
00:46then from Malaysia, there is IHK Malaysia year-on-year in November,
00:50and there is an index of the producer price or IHP South Korea month-on-month in November,
00:55and there is an index of the producer price or IHP South Korea month-on-month in November.
00:59The mid-term agenda, as you can see on the provisional page,
01:02for MCOR, ERTX, BMHS, then ACRO, TOBA, ZATA, BEKS, MENGLAR, RUPS,
01:09as well as the Dividend Tonight payment brand, while that for IPC, MX, Dividend Tonight.
01:16And next we will see the opening of the Asian major exchanges this morning.
01:26Yes, we are sorry, the data shown is not correct,
01:32we will deliver it verbally only.
01:35For Nikkei, the opening is 0.16% at level 38,876.
01:41Then STI Singapore, the opening is 0.45% at level 3,745.
01:46Then Kospi Korea, the opening is 0.95% at level 2,412.
01:51And Hang Seng Hong Kong, the opening is 0.15% at level 19,782.
01:57And to discuss this morning, we will discuss with Mr. Hans Kueh,
02:02Capital Market Observer. Good morning, Mr. Hans.
02:04Yes, good morning, sir.
02:06Have you taken a year-end leave, Mr. Hans?
02:08Yes, not yet, sir. The market is not closed yet.
02:11Not yet, so it will continue to operate at least until the market closes on December 30, 2024.
02:17Mr. Hans, if we talk about the weakness of the IASG,
02:20some analysts may see this as a weakness that is quite, quote-unquote, horror,
02:26through the 6,100 level.
02:29Actually, what is the potential today?
02:33Will it continue its weakness or do you see an indication that the IASG will have a rebound today?
02:42Yes, today, the decline was quite strong yesterday,
02:47because it was opened with a gap down.
02:50If we look at it, it's almost 60 points gap down.
02:53Then it turned out to be below 7,000.
02:57So this is quite a big decline.
03:00But today the market should have an opportunity to rebound.
03:03If we look at it, yesterday Dogecoin was already moving flat,
03:08so of course this opens up opportunities for our index to rebound.
03:13Yesterday, the market was a bit surprised,
03:17because of the Fed Reserve statement that did not meet expectations.
03:22The market was hoping for a cut of 75 to 100 basis points next year,
03:27but the Fed Reserve seems to only cut 50 basis points,
03:33according to their dot plot,
03:35the statement from Jerome Paul himself indicates a more hawkish tone,
03:41so that the market becomes negative and there is a big selling action in the Dogecoin market.
03:49It turns out that the cut is in the middle of the year and the end of the year.
03:54So it looks like the gap is a bit long,
03:57this is what causes the market to be a bit pinched.
04:01Actually, the global economy and Indonesia are a bit burdened with high interest rates,
04:07hoping that the interest rate can go down quickly,
04:10but it seems that the change in the direction of the Fed Reserve policy
04:14will certainly slow down developing countries,
04:19including Indonesia, to cut interest rates, including the Fed Reserve.
04:23This is what causes the market to be corrected.
04:26Mr. Eikart, there is indeed a sentiment that is quite heavy,
04:29the movement from the IHSG,
04:30which is related to the Fed policy or the projection of the Fed policy in 2025,
04:34which will slow down the decline in the interest rate.
04:37And this is in a negative attitude by the market players,
04:40and then there is panic.
04:43But if we look at it ourselves, are there any other indicators
04:47that seem to make the IHSG rebound quite long,
04:53not just for a moment,
04:55but then used again to realize the benefits of closing trade at the end of this year, Mr. Hans?
05:02Yes, this is true.
05:04We have been corrected since December 11,
05:08we have been corrected and consistently dropped in the period.
05:16Indeed, the market is very careful about the Fed Reserve policy,
05:22and then the market also monitors what Donald Trump may do after he takes office.
05:31And the Trump statement that once threatened Mexico, Canada, China,
05:36and then India also caused the market to respond quite negatively.
05:41But we also have to look at geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine
05:46which increased when Biden allowed Ukraine to use long-range rockets
05:53and was retaliated by Russia with the Oresnik missile,
05:57which of course also contributed to making the market relatively more worried.
06:04So, the increasing tensions are also understood.
06:07And if we look at the weakness yesterday,
06:09which has also been supported by the Rupiah weakness,
06:13which is already approaching the level of Rp. 16,300,
06:19even though it is still at Rp. 16,280.
06:23This is also quite influential.
06:26We see that the Bank of Japan is not increasing the flow rate,
06:30causing the dollar index to remain strong,
06:32and this is also one of the contributions to the weakness of our exchange rate.
06:37So, the IASG is really burdened by the global and weakness of our exchange rate.
06:43Okay.
06:44Mr. Hans, if we look at it historically,
06:46when Donald Trump led the United States as president,
06:49if we look at the volatility of inflation there,
06:52what is it like?
06:53And how is it actually,
06:55maybe it can be attributed to the Fed itself,
06:59is there a possibility, then urgently,
07:04as soon as there are new policies taken in the middle of 2025,
07:09because it may affect the volatility of inflation in the United States
07:12when Donald Trump leads the United States?
07:16Yes, if we pay attention,
07:19of course the market will be very careful,
07:23because we have just finished the global economic power of the COVID pandemic.
07:29If it is said to be a real recovery,
07:31in fact, it hasn't really recovered yet.
07:34The impact of the pandemic is one of the very high inflation,
07:39so that the flower is in a very high position.
07:43And once the flower period has been approved,
07:46of course, what the market expects is that the Fed will immediately cut the flow rate,
07:51go down again,
07:53open up space for the central banks of developing countries to cut the flow rate.
07:59But of course, the election of Donald Trump certainly caused the market to be a little worried about his election.
08:09First, trade war.
08:11Trade war slows down the global economy,
08:14but on the other hand, it will certainly drive inflation in the United States,
08:17because of the tariff imposed.
08:19Then if we look at the second policy,
08:22related to tax cuts.
08:24If the United States cuts taxes,
08:26of course, the result of corporate spending will increase,
08:29pushing inflation higher.
08:31But on the other hand,
08:33the US deficit will certainly widen,
08:35forcing the government there to spend more taxes,
08:40and push for a higher yield.
08:42These are two things that are certainly not good for the emerging market market,
08:47including our market.
08:49Then the immigrant policy.
08:51When he cuts immigrants,
08:55deports immigrants,
08:57it results in an increase in taxes.
08:59Because all this time,
09:01jobs are filled with immigrants who are willing to be paid cheaper.
09:04This causes higher inflation.
09:07So this Fed Reserve policy actually reflects
09:11or confirms the market concerns that
09:14Donald Trump will bring higher inflation,
09:18causing a higher yield,
09:20and strong dollar.
09:22This is what causes the global market.
09:25This is a weakness that does not only happen in Indonesia,
09:28but also globally and regionally,
09:30experiencing a relatively similar decline.
09:33Okay, this is an interesting insight,
09:35especially for investors who really respect
09:37what happens in the United States
09:39regarding the economic policies
09:41that will be implemented by Donald Trump.
09:43Okay, there are several other interesting things
09:46for us to discuss, Mr. Hans.
09:48One of them is the weakness of the US dollar exchange rate.
09:51Does this really imply a weakness of the US dollar?
09:55Then how do you see the potential of the rupiah itself?
09:57We will continue after the next segment,
10:00at the same time discussing your perspectives.
10:02But we will again look at the opening of the main Asian markets this morning.
10:08The opening of the main Asian markets
10:14The opening of the main Asian markets
10:17The opening of the main Asian markets
10:19The opening of the main Asian markets
10:21The opening of the main Asian markets
10:23The opening of the main Asian markets
10:25The opening of the main Asian markets
10:27The opening of the main Asian markets
10:29The opening of the main Asian markets
10:31The opening of the main Asian markets
10:33The opening of the main Asian markets
10:35The opening of the main Asian markets
10:37The opening of the main Asian markets