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"Agar Aj IMF Say Agreement Na Hota To Kal Ap Dekhte..." Miftah Ismail's Shocking Revelations
"Agar Aj IMF Say Agreement Na Hota To Kal Ap Dekhte..." Miftah Ismail's Shocking Revelations
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00:00You have got two things from the IMF program.
00:04One is that you will get 1.1 billion dollars in a day or two.
00:07It is a program of 7 billion dollars.
00:09But the more important thing that you have got is that you have given a certificate to the world,
00:14from the IMF, that if Pakistan continues the program that we have told in the next three years,
00:20then it will not have a default.
00:22This is the most important thing.
00:24So, the investors all over the world get this confidence.
00:27The lenders and bankers all over the world, who were afraid of giving you money,
00:30will think that the IMF is also saying that it will not have a default for three years.
00:34This means that they can make investments in Pakistan with confidence
00:38and can also lend to Pakistan with confidence.
00:41So, this is what was going on.
00:43If, God forbid, this had not happened,
00:45then you would have seen that there would have been a strange new demand in the dollar market,
00:49in which people would have thought that if the Pakistani rupee defaults,
00:52then people would start buying dollars,
00:54and start sending them abroad.
00:57Right.
00:58And the IMF program came.
01:00This program, as the Prime Minister said, had very strict conditions,
01:04but unfortunately, all the bitterness that was there,
01:06the Prime Minister put it all on the people of Pakistan
01:10and did not take any responsibility.
01:12So, in this budget that came,
01:14he did not try to reduce any expenses.
01:16Continuous expenses also increased by 24%,
01:18while the government itself is saying that inflation will be 12-13%.
01:22Similarly, the government said that the PSDP, Development Expenditures,
01:28they also increased it by more than 60%.
01:30There was no need for that either.
01:32So, all the strictness that was there,
01:36they put it on the people.
01:38Today, in Pakistan, there is a 40% tax on the salaried class,
01:41a 50% tax on business professionals,
01:44and a 55% tax on businesses and corporations.
01:47And in Pakistan, electricity and gas is the most expensive electricity in the Pakistan region.
01:52It is the most expensive electricity in all the rich countries of Pakistan,
01:55or in all the poor countries of Pakistan.
01:58So, we do not see much increase in our revenue or our industry.
02:02So, we do not see growth.
02:04You are not taking taxes, nor are you reducing your expenses.
02:07And the government did not do what was to be reformed.
02:10But anyway, this IMF program was very important.
02:14The government has received two things today.
02:16One is the IMF program.
02:18And as Mr. Shabbar said,
02:20the oil prices have dropped so much that your inflation has decreased.
02:24When I was a minister, for example,
02:26the international barrel of oil used to be $124.
02:30Today, it is $70.
02:32The lowest price in four years, three years.
02:34So, because of that, your petrol is cheaper, LNG is cheaper,
02:38urea is cheaper, DAP is cheaper.
02:40So, the rate at which inflation was increasing,
02:43that is, last year, inflation was increasing at a rate of 28-30 percent.
02:48That is, the flour that was worth Rs.100,
02:50or anything worth Rs.100,
02:52was worth Rs.130 in one year.
02:54So, now it has come to 12 percent,
02:56that it will increase from 130 to 142.
02:59It will increase.
03:00But at least that rate is increasing.
03:02And this pattern is likely to continue in the future.
03:06Yes, absolutely.
03:07I feel that right now,
03:09unless, God forbid,
03:10there is an international war,
03:12or something like that,
03:14I feel that there is a slight recession.
03:16China's demand has slowed down.
03:18Interest rates in America have also decreased.
03:20America's demand has also slowed down.
03:22So, I feel that between $60-$70,
03:24between $70-$75, oil will remain.
03:26And if it remains,
03:27then inflation has decreased in Pakistan.
03:29At the same time, interest rates are also decreasing.
03:31Right, yes.
03:32Because Pakistan has a loan of Rs.70 crores,
03:35out of which Rs.40 crores is local.
03:38Rs.40 trillion.
03:40So, because of that,
03:41our interest will decrease.
03:43When interest rates will decrease,
03:45our debt servicing will decrease.
03:47So, these are two or three good things.
03:49The government has space because of these two things,
03:51so that it can carry out basic reforms,
03:53which it has not done so far.
03:55And what we do every year,
03:56we do it next year.
03:58If you take this loan from the IMF and do this,
04:00that you have left those reforms again,
04:02and said, we will see next year,
04:04then it will be unfair to the country,
04:06it will be unfair to the poverty of the country,
04:08it will be unfair to the people of the country.
04:10And we did not expect those reforms,
04:12at least in the budget,
04:13according to the economic experts.
04:15Now, Mr. Shabbar,
04:16I want to talk to you further,
04:17but first explain to me,
04:18what you said in the last answer,
04:20that on the one hand,
04:21you gave it a good introduction,
04:22that you have got more loans.
04:24And on the other hand,
04:25you are saying that,
04:26brother, we will have to think
04:27for how long we have to take loans
04:28to run the country.
04:29So, then,
04:30how can both these things be right,
04:32the government?
04:33Please explain this.
04:35Look, as Miftah Abbas is saying right now,
04:39that you realize this,
04:42that if this loan was not received,
04:44then we would have reached
04:46almost at the time of default.
04:49So, this is the deferment of default.
04:52You don't think that
04:54there has been any correction from this.
04:57You think that they have guaranteed you
04:59for three years,
05:01that Pakistan will not go to default,
05:04or Diwali will not happen.
05:06So, this,
05:07and seven billion dollars,
05:10is not a very big amount.
05:12The problem is its credibility,
05:15and the problem is its strength,
05:18that when the IMF program
05:20comes to a country,
05:21then it means that
05:24international agencies,
05:25international bodies,
05:27are accepting that
05:28this country will not go to default.
05:31We will maintain its current account.
05:36But it does not say anywhere
05:38that we will improve the conditions of its people.
05:41Try to understand what I am saying.
05:43They don't say this.
05:45They are not saying this.