IHSG -0,58% ke 7.500,275 di sesi I Jumat (4/10) pasca turun intraday ke level 7.491. Sektor IDX-Techno -2,07% GOTO -6,25%, IDX-Property -0,77% PANI -3,52%, dan IDX-Finance -0,64% BMRI -1,42%. Sementara sektor energi +0,36% MEDC+3,28% di topang kenaikan harga minyak mentah dan dividen interim tahun buku 2024. Tidak hanya IHSG rupiah turun dalam ke 15.500 -an/USD.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going on today where the Samkabungan family is once again continuing its deep growth and has reached the level of 7,400.
00:18And we remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 8788.723 as shown on your television screen later.
00:29And right now, we are joined by Ryo Rizaldi who is the founder of Kelarisa Ham.
00:35Good evening, Ryo. How are you?
00:39Good evening, David. I'm fine.
00:41Yes, but it looks like the Samkabungan family is not doing well. The weakness is still continuing.
00:47It's already at 7,400, Ryo. If we flashback from the highest intraday level at 7,900, how do you see the decline of the Samkabungan family so far?
00:58Yes, so if we look at the latest data, there are stimulus funds in China.
01:04It makes the funds flow directly to China, then there is an increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
01:11So basically, there are a few things that make the market players feel doubtful or white-handed and watch the position.
01:22But basically, if we look at the IHSG since the rally, the rally from 7,000, if I'm not mistaken, on August 5th, the lowest level at 6,998.
01:35Basically, our index has not risen at all.
01:38So from the lowest level at 6,998 to the highest in mid-September around 7,910, it has increased by 12%.
01:49Basically, there is no correction that is rising and rising.
01:55So even though the candle is red, the note is still positive on that day.
02:00So basically, our market needs a correction for profit-taking.
02:05Those who have made a profit can realize a profit. Those who still don't have a position, it could be a moment to make a purchase.
02:11Basically, with an index increase of 12% from level 7,000, the correction is quite reasonable, where the support level of IHSG is actually at level 7,500.
02:24The upper limit, the support area is at level 7,350.
02:32So basically, at the same time as a technical correction, our index is actually testing all-time high levels that used to be difficult to break through.
02:44So if we remember, in the last six months, the levels of 7,300 to 7,400 were really difficult to break through.
02:52That's a strong resistance. Basically, this is a moment where it will be tested as a support level, which we can assume will be a strong support level.
03:02So basically, the technical correction with the current conditions is still normal, but the decline is sometimes without rest.
03:13Okay, Mr. Ryo, where will you go next week?
03:16On Friday night, West Indonesia, the United States will release the data of its employees.
03:21This is also a strong indicator, which is also an invitation for the Fed to determine the next 50 basis points breakthrough in the previous meeting.
03:32Yes, basically, the market is waiting for November payroll on Friday night.
03:38And it is expected that the Fed will reduce the 25 basis points breakthrough.
03:43But if the data is not worse than expected, then it is not impossible that the Fed will cut the flow more aggressively, which is 50 basis points.
03:53So basically, if we talk about a decrease of 25 basis points, it's already priced in with the market.
03:59But if it turns out that the decline will be 50 basis points, which is reflected in non-farm payroll that is below expectations,
04:09basically, it will actually be a positive thing for the flow to Indonesia.
04:16Okay, a sector that is sensitive to the policy of the flower tribe.
04:19There is technology, finance, property. Today, Compaq is experiencing a weakness, Mr. Ryo.
04:24Although the power technology is not as attractive as the banks.
04:28Then the property that responds to the breakthrough of the flower tribe to the Fed and BI a while ago.
04:33How do you see the position of these three sectors?
04:35Are you also taking a break, sir?
04:37After yesterday trying to be a supporter of the power of the Samkabungan index, so that new records were created several times in a row.
04:47Yes, so if we look at the current topic where the index is corrected,
04:51basically, all sectors, including stocks that are bullish, are now in a rest phase, sir.
04:57Because many are profit-taking, many are out of position first,
05:01and this makes the top sectors that have been running for about the last month in a sideways mode first, more or less like that.
05:10And we can see maybe in the future, our index will still tend to move sideways,
05:19not a downtrend.
05:21Moving sideways is more or less around 7,400 to 7,500, which is quite normal.
05:28And that will certainly result in other stocks that are also in a sideways phase, sir.
05:36Okay, in the midst of the weakness that occurs, how is your analysis and recommendation?
05:40Is it positive for the buy-on weakness?
05:43Yes, so considering the strong resistance position in the past, maybe the last two years,
05:49at the level of 7,350 to 7,400, the current correction is heading to that level,
05:55so this is a level that can be said to test the resistance as a support.
06:02So basically, the correction that is happening right now, even though the geopolitical conditions are a bit hot,
06:08basically, technically, we can imagine that this is an opportunity to do a buy-on weakness, 7,350 to 7,500.
06:16Okay, are you more curious and prioritizing the cash sector and the APAC Pario?
06:21Basically, with the correction, we are more focused on the blue chip and big banks, sir.
06:27More or less like that. Big cap, I mean.
06:29Okay, various big caps, which one do you recommend more with the latest technical position today?
06:35With the latest technical position, more or less BCA, Mandiri and BBNI can be prioritized first,
06:42while BBRI still has a tendency for further weakening, sir.
06:47Okay, I want to go to BBCA Pario, it seems from a technical point of view, it is quite tough compared to some other big banks.
06:53Even in the closing of the second session, BBCA turned to strengthen at 0.24% to the green zone.
06:59What is your analysis for BBCA?
07:01Yes, for BBCA, basically, it is still in the uptrend phase, medium and long term.
07:05And as usual, BCA moves in a ranging, up or down, up or down, but with an uptrend.
07:11Basically, there is a support level at level 10,200, it can be a reference to do a buy-on weakness,
07:18where for resistance at level 10,500, it becomes a target for an uptrend in the near future.
07:26Basically, the trend is still very good and healthy, so it will support ISG basically.
07:32From your analysis, what actually affects from a technical point of view for BBCA, sir?
07:37When from other big cap banks, it rises high, then the correction is quite deep,
07:41while BBCA is more gradual and more even, and a few years ago it also touched the highest level in history.
07:49Yes, basically, we can see it like this, sir.
07:52So, there used to be a defensive stock, sir.
07:55Defensive stock is Unilever, for example, Samsung Consumer.
07:59Now, Unilever's performance is not that good, the price keeps going down,
08:03maybe it's already the lowest in the last few years.
08:0610 years, if I'm not mistaken, sir.
08:0810 years, amazing.
08:11So, the market still, the fund manager, they still have to have a position in the stock market.
08:16They can't, the stock exchange only has 40% in the stock market, so they have to have a stock.
08:21Well, I can, it looks like BBCA can be a blue chip stock, a good stock,
08:27and also somehow become a replacement for a defensive stock too.
08:31That's basically what it looks like, sir.
08:33Okay, today's closing is 10,475, going back to strengthening,
08:37especially in the last minutes of the closing period at 0.24%.
08:41From the big cap stocks that are today's heavyweight, Pario,
08:45I try to go to the energy.
08:47Updates in the first half of the afternoon, energy is still leading the strengthening,
08:51although the strengthening has begun to be limited compared to the closing of the previous trading day.
08:56Raw oil stocks still look strong, sir.
08:59Yesterday I took a break in the trading on Thursday,
09:01on average they experienced a correction, and today it's back to strengthening.
09:05How do you see this sentiment? Will it last long?
09:08No, sir. Will the stock price bounce from the raw oil or gas emissions?
09:13Gas prices are also rising today, Pario.
09:15Yes, basically it's the energy sector, sir.
09:18So basically it's being led by the market,
09:21because the tension in the Middle East is oil.
09:25Although Saudi Arabia also said that it has forgotten the oil target of $100 per barrel,
09:31but basically the tension is directed to oil.
09:33So basically the market is looking at the condition of the oil commodity price itself,
09:42and in the end, the emissions related to oil will also be one of the targets.
09:50As long as the commodity price is indeed rising, sir.
09:52Although now it's not very good.
09:55Okay, Medco is doing well today, sir.
09:57We will try to review the technical analysis for Medco.
10:00Fundamentally, as I said earlier, they will also share the Interim Dividend for the book year 2024.
10:06What is the analysis for Medco?
10:07Yes, for Medco, basically it has risen sharply for several days.
10:10That's why the closing is lower than the opening, even though it has accelerated the rise.
10:16And basically the resistance of Medco is already at level 1465,
10:20it's not too far away.
10:22So for the upside, it's relatively limited,
10:24and usually the stock that has risen high and reached the resistance area will usually rest first, sir.
10:29Sideways for the time being, with a range of 1,400 to 1,470,
10:35which can be a range of consolidation for Medco.
10:38Has it not been recommended to enter?
10:40Not yet, it's better to wait for consolidation because it has risen quite a lot.
10:44What has profited? Profitecking?
10:46Profitecking.
10:47Okay, next is Elsa, sir.
10:49510 closing today.
10:51We also shared the information earlier,
10:53even Elsa's management is already optimistic that there will be an increase in production
10:57as the price of oil rises globally.
11:00What is the analysis for Elsa?
11:02Yes, basically Elsa's story is technically similar to Medco,
11:05because the significant increase in the last few days
11:08has brought Elsa closer to the swing high or resistance area,
11:13more or less at 525.
11:16And basically the sharp rise will usually make the stock consolidate first.
11:21And we need to see a little that there is a gap in Medco and Elsa, sir.
11:27A gap that has formed since Wednesday, yesterday's Wednesday.
11:30So basically this can be a reason for profitecking and consolidation
11:34for some time in the future.
11:35Okay, before we update the share price index,
11:37one more thing, let's go to the king first.
11:39Pario, in short, today it's still going fast at 12.12% at 1,665.
11:46Your analysis and recommendations for the king?
11:48Yes, for the king, of course, it's not to be bought,
11:51but to be held, it's okay.
11:53Please pay attention to the resistance level at 1,750.
11:57Approaching that level can be considered for buying weakness,
12:01where the support level is quite far, at the level of 1,490 to 1,500.
12:07So basically, sell on strength in the king
12:10to see the buying weakness at the support level of 1,500.
12:13Okay, the buyback is at 1,500, right?
12:17That's right, sir.
12:18Yes, today's closing at 1,665,
12:20strengthening significantly at 12.12%.
12:23And again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of the IDA channel.