Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Welcome to our number two live right here on this football Friday on the
00:04early line on SportsGrid. He is Joe, I am Ben. Listen, it is so much more than a
00:09football Friday. Days like today, days like tomorrow, and this weekend. A
00:15reminder why October is the best sports month of the entirety of the calendar
00:21year. We've got a Game 5 tonight in LA in Major League Baseball postseason
00:26action in a heated Southern California rivalry between the Dodgers and the
00:30Padres with a spot in the NLCS against the Mets on the line. Tomorrow night in
00:35primetime, it's the Guardians hosting the Tigers for a berth to the ALCS and a
00:41matchup against the New York Yankees. We've got one of the best college
00:44football slates of the entire year tomorrow on a Saturday and a great NFL
00:50weekend ahead as well. And Joe, we will now start our preview of the full Sunday
00:55slate here on a football Friday on TEL. Yeah, I'm looking forward to it, Ben.
01:02This is the time of year where so much is going on. It's a lot of fun, but we
01:07are right in smack in the middle here. It's starting to get good. College
01:11football, a lot less room for error for a lot of top 25 teams, Ben. These are huge
01:16games in week seven of the college football slate. In week seven, Joe, it is
01:22kind of crazy to say there are additional bye weeks. We play
01:25technically to week 14, but we are basically midway through the year. A lot
01:29of teams have already played six games. Everybody in the country has played at
01:34least five. We are nearing that halfway point, and as we near the halfway point
01:38in October and November in the college football playoff rankings in this new
01:43era, the magnitude is amplified. Let's go to the National Football League on
01:49Sunday. Twelve games, once again, four teams on a bye this week in week number
01:54six, and for a second consecutive week, we start our Sunday bright and early
01:59across the pond in London between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago
02:04Bears. The Jags, very comfortable in London. They have played there the most
02:09of any NFL organization. Jacksonville, though, a slight underdog in London, but
02:15we're talking a near pick'em price on that money line against the Bears. 44
02:20and a half is the total. Last week, Joe, the Jags, their first victory of the year
02:24holding on despite a two-touchdown lead under six minutes remaining against Joe
02:30Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts. Chicago, for a second consecutive week, a
02:35third time this year, victorious at home inside Soldier Field in the Windy City,
02:41where the Bears have been a favorite in all three home wins, and they have
02:45covered the number in all three as well. What gives tomorrow in London between
02:50Jacksonville and Chicago? I think, Ben, actually I do like Jacksonville in this
02:57game here, and I think the markets agree with me because it was plus two. I'm
03:01seeing now one and a half, even ones, starting to pop up here, and there are
03:06some injury concerns on the Bears' defensive side. I know they're starting
03:10safety, did not travel brisker to London because of a concussion. I think that's
03:17going to open up huge opportunities for Brian Thomas, who is a guy that, with the
03:23deep ball, make no mistake about it, and nobody attempts more passes over 20
03:28yards than what Trevor Lawrence does and Peterson there, and I love this kid,
03:34Brian Thomas. I think he's a big-game guy. I also, and I have not been a fan, of one
03:40Caleb Williams on this show, Ben. You know that, but I got to give credit where
03:44credit is due. The last two weeks, he looked absolutely lost originally
03:49against the Blitz, but the last two weeks, he looks much more comfortable. The good
03:54news for him is that I don't anticipate him having any pressure because
03:59Jacksonville can't get to the quarterback, so I don't see that being a
04:02problem. When I looked at this, I think there's going to be points in this game,
04:06Ben. Way more points. Both teams coming off 30-plus point performances. I
04:11absolutely think Jacksonville should be better than what their record is. They
04:16have too many weapons on offense there to be that inept, and sometimes, Ben,
04:21nobody is more comfortable in London than this Jacksonville team, who
04:25practically has lived there over the last decade, so I'm gonna go with the
04:29first half over. I think it was 21 and a half, 22 points. I got this thing. I can
04:35see a 14-10 kind of situation, a 17-10 kind of thing. I think both teams are
04:42gonna keep their foot on the gas, and points are coming early and often in
04:46this game. I like that look, Geronery. I really do. In terms of Jacksonville's
04:51familiarity with London and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where they played
04:55tomorrow. Last year, the Jags played multiple games in London in a season.
05:00They were a perfect 2-0, including an outright victory over the Bills as a
05:04five-and-a-half point dog around this time in the middle of October. That's
05:10when things were good for the Jags. They were off to an 8-3 start. We know
05:13how the year ended up, and we know how this year has started. The Bears over in
05:18their recent two games, both at home in the Windy City, under in both of their
05:24two games on the road. 1-0 and 1, or 0-1 and 1, excuse me, against the spread away
05:31from the Windy City so far this season. And Joe, it should not be a surprise that
05:37when teams are winning games, their star players and their quarterback are
05:41playing better. Caleb Williams, multiple interceptions in each of the Bears' two
05:45losses this year. Sacked 11 times in those two L's in the three wins for the
05:51Bears. Three touchdowns, not a single interception, and sacked only six times.
05:58He threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns last week against Carolina.
06:02And a key Joe for this Chicago team in their last two wins at home has been the
06:08resurgence of DeAndre Swift on the ground. He has been so much better. A run
06:13game compliments a young quarterback. By the way, Caleb Williams, since the merger
06:18in the NFL way back in 1970, the best record for a number one overall pick in
06:24his rookie season through five games. The Bears are three and two, but I do
06:30think it's a close game to start Sunday. So we start Sunday and then we go to a
06:34marquee matchup in the afternoon hours. America's game of the week. It's Detroit
06:40and Dallas at the star. Dallas is not one at home this year. They entered the
06:45season on a 16-game home regular season win streak. Joe, the Cowboys are catching
06:51three inside Jerry World. Are you surprised by the number against the road
06:56favorite Lions?
06:58No, I'm not. Because that defense once again is an absolute hot mess. They have
07:04every edge rusher they have is hurt. I still don't get me started. I have no
07:10idea how Pittsburgh did not win that game on Sunday night, but that's a story
07:14for a different day. And listen, if you get that version of Dak where he's
07:20going to turn the ball over like he did and the Cowboys, I think, are not going
07:26to be able to come back against this Detroit team if they have to become one
07:30dimensional. I don't expect, you know, Dattle to have another close to 100
07:34yard performance. They can't run the ball still. And the other problem with
07:39the Cowboys going up against an offense like Detroit is indoors Detroit track
07:45meet. All of a sudden you're down two scores. What is Dallas going to do? They
07:49can't grind it out here. They don't have the pieces on defense. They're thin
07:53on every level, so I don't see how they're going to be able to do anything
07:59if they're not in front in this game, which I don't see happening against
08:03Detroit. So I agreed Detroit as currently constructed should be the
08:08favorite in Dallas, given all the injuries and their inability to be able
08:11to run the ball consistently. Since then, Campbell took over the reins in
08:162021. Joe, there is no better cover team in the National Football League
08:20that Detroit. They are 40 and 18 against the spread early on. It was
08:26oftentimes as the underdog since the start of last year as the favored side,
08:32no better cover team than that of the Lions Detroit 14 and six against the
08:38spread. Technically, the Bears and the Colts have a better cover percentage as
08:42a favorite since the start of a season ago, but they've been booked as a dog
08:47eight times or less 20 times for the Lions 14 and six against the number. We
08:54will look at these two teams on the other side of the break. We'll talk
08:57about an interesting primetime game at MetLife for Sunday night football
09:02between the Bengals and the Giants as well as we continue to dive through the
09:07Sunday slate here on the early line. It is now officially a football Friday on
09:12sports. Come back and talk a huge NFC showdown tomorrow at the store in
09:18Dallas between the Cowboys and the Lions again Detroit this year off to a
09:23great start in the NFC North. They are four and one the Cowboys three and two
09:29with all three wins coming away from the star. Detroit has been the favorite
09:34in every single game this year. They have covered in all four of their
09:39victories. The NFC North is the best division in football. All five teams
09:43above 500. Nobody other in the National Football League in any of the other
09:48seven divisions have more than two teams that have a winning record. So
09:53Joe, how were your evaluation of both Detroit and Dallas potentially change
09:57after the result on Sunday again? The Lions, a road favorite at the star with
10:03the highest total of the weekend 52 in a hook. Yeah, and it makes all it
10:09makes total sense here. We're dealing with two teams that love to throw the
10:14ball were also ironically enough, Ben, we're dealing with two teams that have
10:18the highest third down conversion rate in the NFL. Second in the NFL are the
10:23Lions. Third are the Cowboys. You know, Cowboys gain almost 77% of their yards
10:30by passing it. Uh, that is what we're gonna get here. Both of these teams
10:35combined average about 128 plays a game. There is going to be multiple
10:40opportunities for points to be scored in this game. And listen, totals over 50
10:46Ben this year have not exactly been crushing the over. They have fallen
10:50woefully short so far here through the first five weeks of the season. I don't
10:56know that this one like the one last night. Also, I don't know that this one
11:00is going to fall short of the fifth. It's high for a reason. I think that
11:04eventually turns around. No way would I sweat out an under with these two
11:08offenses. Dallas's defense has struggled. We haven't seen the Cowboys
11:14now in this kind of matchup against an elite opponent. We'll see how it plays
11:19out again. The Cowboys winning outright as a road underdog last week in
11:24Pittsburgh, two of their three wins as a road underdog in their time as a road
11:29favorite in New York against the Giants. They did not cover by the hook.
11:34Speaking of the Giants, this will be their 21st consecutive game as an
11:39underdog. And Joe, in the previous 20, Ryan Day balls at these boys
11:43competitive 11, eight and one against the spread Sunday night football at
11:48MetLife. It's the Giants and the Bengals three and a half point spread in
11:52favor of Cincy, a one and four team laying more than a field goal on the
11:56road in prime time. What say you? Yeah, well, let's let's face it here once
12:02again, when you're talking about Cincinnati, it's not a matter of if
12:07they'll score. It's just a matter of how many they will score the question
12:11once again with the Bengals. And this is really the stat that I can that I
12:16found here, Ben tells you everything you need to know about the Bengals
12:18defense. No defense gets teams to punt less than the Cincinnati Bengals. And
12:24when you are dead last enforcing punts, Ben as a defense, that is not a good
12:30sign. And I do think they're going to get better. I, you know, this kind of
12:35offense here with the Giants very hit or miss very one dimensional. I think it
12:39was great what they did with Seattle. But congratulations. Look at what the
12:4449ers a more than competent offense without a lot of key weapons. They
12:49dropped almost 40 points on the Seattle defense. What in the world is
12:53Cincinnati's offense going to drop here? I think they're going to have a
12:57whole lot of opportunities here to score a ton of points. It's Cincinnati
13:02all day for me. I think the Giants come back down to reality. Great win against
13:07Seattle. But now let's let's not get crazy here. Giant fans. This is all the
13:12Bengals to try and get back into the race in the A. F. C. North. Listen, and
13:17they still have an opportunity, Joe, despite how dreadful a one and four
13:21star is as we enter week six around the National Football League. Only six of
13:26the 16 teams in the conference have a winning record. The conference we
13:31expected it might take 10 or 11 wins to even contend for a wild card. Birth
13:37does not seem to be the gauntlet we had anticipated before the year got
13:41underway. I think you could make an argument, though. The best game of the
13:44weekend is in the Charm City on Sunday. Don't compare Jaden Daniels and Lamar
13:50Jackson. That's from one of the two former Heisman Trophy winners in this
13:55matchup. It's the Commanders and the Ravens. Jaden Daniels, a historic start
14:00to his NFL career. Lamar Jackson playing like the reigning NFL MVP as of late
14:06the flock after a witness. Owen to start have won three straight. They have
14:10covered in all three as a favorite of three points or less. They're laying 6
14:16and a half at home against the Commanders, a four and one Washington
14:21team. Joe is the game more competitive than that. Nearly touchdown spread
14:25might say. Yeah, I think it is. Uh, I do think, of course, the Ravens are
14:31rolling right now. Offensively, a very suspect Bengals defense on the road,
14:38Ben, and they, you know, they dropped plenty of points in there. This
14:42commander's defense statistically is just as bad as the Bengals defense on
14:47so many different levels. I think Baltimore points are going to be
14:51available to them a lot in this game. And oh, yeah, Washington there. I don't
14:57think any of what they're doing is a flute. They Daniel seems very calm. He
15:02is a guy that can absolutely lead this offense. His legs make him a dual
15:07threat, just like Lamar. It makes it very hard to game plan here for them.
15:12The blitz doesn't seem to bother him. Great, great offensive game planning
15:18here by, you know who there for Jaden Daniels? I don't mean this should be
15:23the highest scoring game of the week. I know we think we're gonna get points in
15:28that Dallas Detroit game, but I'd be shocked if we don't get just as many
15:32points in this game here. I think this is a firefight. I think it's gonna be
15:36one of the more exciting games of the weekend. Listen, the Ravens have not
15:40been a great defense so far this year, allowing more than 25 points per game.
15:45Bottom eight around the NFL Washington better the last two weeks. The
15:50Cardinals game a little bit fluky. The Browns are not gonna provide much
15:53offensively. Washington has gone over, though, in four of five games this year.
15:58They have also covered in all four wins. They have been an underdog three times.
16:03They are two and one against the spread. The only lost the only non cover week
16:08number one as a road underdog of about 3.5 4 points against the Buccaneers.
16:13Here are the quarterbacks facing off a two time NFL MVP and two Heisman Trophy
16:20winners. Jaden Daniels to 24 and a half for his passing yards. Prop 48 and a
16:25half on the ground to 21 and a half for Lamar, 55 and a half on the ground.
16:31Plenty more from the Sunday slate up next on TV. Some interconference
16:36intrigue and then a couple of big matchups in the NFC to preview here on
16:41this football Friday on sports grid. Joe, we start in Philadelphia. The
16:46Eagles off a buy and maybe desperately needed that by albeit early in the
16:51season against a Browns team that is struggling. The Browns are one and four.
16:57And Joe, if you needed any indication, don't just listen to me emphasize
17:01struggling to 9.5 points spread in favor of the birds in Philly on Sunday.
17:08Is that too big of a number for this spot?
17:12No, there's no number big enough when it comes to the Browns offensively who
17:19can't, you know, hit water if they fell out of a boat here, Ben. And we know
17:22this. Also, the ironic thing is as bad as they have been offensively,
17:29certainly throwing the ball into Sean Watson. They never play from in front,
17:32so they always have to drop back and throw the ball. His numbers are so bad
17:38but what makes it even worse than is that they have played the single worst
17:44group so far on their schedule. They have played the worst teams defensively
17:50against the past in the NFL, so they haven't even played anybody good enough
17:56that can actually defend the past yet and they still are averaging the worst
18:02numbers across the board offensively throwing the ball. How is that going to
18:06get any better against Vic Fangio and Philadelphia in this spot here? And by
18:11the way, they will have their outside weapons back. Brown will be back, of
18:16course. We know that Jalen Hurts will have all his full compliment. Barkley
18:21should have no problem running it right down the throat of this team. I mean,
18:25call me crazy here. This game is over early. I think Philadelphia in the first
18:30half at any price is probably worth it. And oh yeah, I'll take the Browns team
18:35total under as well. I don't think they get the 14 points. I don't think it's
18:39even close in this game here, Ben. You would assume Devontae Smith back as
18:44well, Joe. This is a spot for Philadelphia to win comfortably to win
18:48by double digits. That's what the odds makers expect. The Browns have been
18:53abysmal and I mean abysmal this season. One in four against the spread. They
18:58have not covered in any of their losses this year twice as a dog. And yeah,
19:04Deshaun Watson has been worse than mediocre. Subpar would be a compliment
19:08to describe this creeps play at the quarterback position. But he's also been
19:12sacked 26 times. No other team in the NFL has allowed at least 20 sacks so
19:17far this season. And you would think Philadelphia's front can get after it a
19:23spot. The Eagles need to deliver. I would expect them to. Here's a great
19:28looking game, Joe. In my estimation, Sunday afternoon in Lambeau, the Packers
19:32a 5.5 point favorite against the Arizona Cardinals. Green Bay going on
19:36the road last week to L. A knocking off the shorthanded Rams. The first win for
19:41Jordan Love in a start this year. Green Bay is three and two Arizona, though
19:475.5 points in this matchup with how profitable 5.5 point dogs have been this
19:52year and how good Arizona has been as an underdog since the start of last
19:57season feels a little bit steep for my liking. Yeah, it does. But boy, oh boy,
20:02it feels like this has got let down written all over it for Arizona here
20:07after that upset win against the 49ers. I mean, good stuff. Congrats. But once
20:13again, I do think that Green Bay and Jordan Love, I think this is another one
20:19of these games against that young defense at home of the Cardinals. I
20:24think they're gonna be able to throw the ball. I think they're gonna be able
20:27to run the ball. I think they're gonna be able to name their score once again.
20:32And I do think that the defense of Green Bay will limit Kyler Murray and
20:37the offense here. It's the battle of the defenses. I don't think it's close.
20:41Green Bay has got the better defense at home. Yeah, I like Green Bay a lot in
20:46this spot. The Cardinals are 11 and nine against the spread as a dog since the
20:51start of last year to outright victories as an underdog already this
20:56season. But yeah, Joe, I would have to agree. Also, the Cardinals allowing
21:00nearly 148 yards per game on the ground. That's fifth worst in the NFL. I would
21:05expect to see Josh Jacobs play a big, big role. Joe, can the Carolina Panthers
21:11do anything? They're taking on the Falcons in an important NFC South
21:15weekend. The Bucks play the Saints. The Panthers host the Falcons. This spread
21:20six and a half in favor of Atlanta. Should it be a comfortable win for the
21:24Dirty Birds? Oh, absolutely. There's nothing comfortable ever betting. You
21:31know, Kurt Cousins and this spot on the road is a there's a big fit. No, this
21:36has got trap written all over it, Ben. Listen, the Panthers have been an
21:41underdog in every single game since the start of last year. 5 15 and two
21:47against the spread, but it does feel a little bit trappy in a divisional
21:51showdown. Also over in all three games, Danny Dalton has started for football
21:55Friday. A football Friday always includes Mike Blewett live right here
22:00on the early line on Sports Grid Big Blue. As always, we appreciate the time.
22:05Thanks for being here. You will be here for the next half hour for the next
22:08three consecutive segments to get everybody ready for the Sunday slate in
22:13week number six, the second weekend in October. How fired up are you? I'm very
22:19excited. We obviously have big matchups between Detroit and and Dallas and a
22:24lot of other games that Joe and I honestly, regardless of the games that
22:27are on the slate, Joe and I have a lot of fun and uh, we're exhausted by the
22:32end of the 3.5 hours, but in a good way. And I think we've tried to teach people
22:37our, our method in in game betting, which is trying to find some value for
22:44you, particularly early in these games when the spread swing way too much
22:48based off of an early score in these games. NFL football in game live on
22:54Sunday afternoon with Mike Blewett and Geron Arie starting at one p.m. Eastern
22:59time to the conclusion of that early window of games. But week six starting
23:04last night in Seattle between the 49ers and the Seahawks, San Francisco
23:08winning and covering comfortably 36 24 as a three and a half point road
23:14favorite. Both Joe and I have said that if the 49ers are going to be the NFC
23:19favorites and a Super Bowl front runner last night is a game despite on a short
23:24week, despite against a divisional foe, you gotta go out there and win. And
23:29it's what San Francisco did. What did the 49ers show you last night on
23:33thursday night football? I think that first of all, another prime time over.
23:38So we've seen a lot of high scoring in prime time this year, particularly the
23:43last few weeks. But I think that we have to concede that the Niners have
23:49dealt with a lot of injuries and but for a bad second half against Arizona,
23:55they probably be sitting, they'd be sitting here at four and two. That was
23:59a very fluky second half. So at three and three, considering the amount of
24:03injuries that they've had so far for them to go on the road, I think was a
24:08really good proving point. As you guys had already stated, I don't think my
24:13opinion of the Niners has changed much. We have seen slow starts from these
24:17Shanahan teams before. Very often they are injury related. We'll see if we get
24:21McCaffrey back in any meaningful way, but we're getting other guys involved
24:26to Isaac Correndo with a big run last night. Jordan Mason was efficient again.
24:30We hit Debo with a big play. So I kind of think that's where we're at. It
24:35hasn't changed my opinion and I'm not that concerned about the slower start
24:38for the Niners.
24:40So what is the, if we get that version of the Niners moving forward, I don't
24:46think it matters. The running back is at that point, they should be the
24:50favorite in that division right now. However, fluky or not fluky, they were
24:55up 23 to 3 last night in that game and again allowed a team they were better
25:00than to get back into it. Is that concern you moving forward with these
25:0449ers? And one thing that we've seen consistently last year and this year is
25:09when Talanoa-Hafanga, their star safety is banged up, they struggle for
25:14whatever reason that is. Fred Warner forced a fumble last night, so he's
25:18still in playmaking mode. But I think they struggle more with loss of
25:22personnel on defense than they do on offense. You saw Shanahan pumping his
25:27fist on the Correndo run. Their blocking scheme works, to your point,
25:31regardless of who's in there. I think they struggle a little bit more when
25:34some of the QBs or the leaders of the defense are banged up. Bosa, Warner,
25:39Hafanga. I think we saw a little bit of that last night on the Seattle side,
25:42to be honest. It's nice that Geno Smith leads the league in passing for him,
25:47but not for the team. Kenneth Walker, not touching the ball 15 times, is a huge
25:54negative for this team, and he's only done it once in the four games that he's
25:57played. So they need to find a way to balance this more, and obviously the
26:02defense is a concern. They gave up 22 points to the Giants offense last week.
26:07They give up 36 last night. Yeah, Geno Smith, the league's leading passer, but
26:13six touchdowns to also six interceptions this year. The 49ers have dealt with
26:18some defensive injuries and, of course, some woes on the offensive side of the
26:23football from a health perspective. We'll see the status of Jordan Mason
26:26moving forward, but Isaac Correndo, the rookie out of Louisville via Wisconsin,
26:30not bad so far this season for the Niners as well. Blew it one of the games
26:35of the Sunday slate in that afternoon window, 4 25 p.m. Eastern time with
26:41America's team and America's game of the week. Maybe I'm talking about the
26:44Lions. The Dallas Cowboys, though, hosting Detroit, and yet the Lions a
26:49road favorite at the star highest total of the weekend. The over understands at
26:5452 and a half. How do you break it down? So obviously you don't love laying
27:00points as a road favorite, but the lines air coming off of by Dallas. Still not
27:06healthy defensively. The Lions have covered 16 of their last 21 and the
27:11Dallas games have played to an over and seven of the last nine. I'm gonna play
27:15this one as straight as I can see it. I love the Lions coming off of by so like
27:19the lines and I do like points in this game.
27:23Fortunate to say the least for the Cowboys win on Sunday night on the road.
27:28Now they're a dog at home with every injury into what was a suspect defense
27:34here. Well, what is the ceiling for the Cowboys for you, Mike? I mean,
27:38Washington playing Philadelphia will be better. The Giants. It just feels like
27:43that's still a wide open NFC East. I think that's fair to say. Washington is
27:48clearly the surprise of all of them. You were talking about Philly earlier. You
27:52think they'll get a win, so maybe they get back on track coming out of
27:56there by and with the Cowboys.
28:00I think we probably would have sat here a month ago and said, I'm not really
28:04sure about the Cowboys for this year. There's a lot of talent, but how much
28:07did they do to improve the team? Right? It's a good win for them on the road in
28:12Pittsburgh. But as you watched and have watched every game this year, Steelers
28:17really struggle offensively. They had opportunities to gain ground on the
28:22Cowboys in that game, and they just couldn't do it. So they're minus three
28:27basically in turnovers on the road. I know the Steelers technically had a
28:29turnover on the last play of the game, but the Dallas went on the road minus
28:34three in turnovers and got a W. So a good win for them. I just and I thought
28:38that their defense stepped up significantly with the guys out and
28:43limited the Steelers. And I also thought DAC did a great job of attacking
28:47downfield. Yes, the interceptions were bad, but I thought they attacked a good,
28:52very good Steelers defense in a proper way. So I don't I don't have that many
28:55offensive concerns, especially if Dowdle is able to get going. It's just
29:00defensively. One game is good, but can they string it together? If these guys
29:04are out four and five weeks that I'd really be concerned about, and I don't
29:09think they'll be able to do it the way they did it on Sunday night against the
29:12Steelers when they face the Lions this Sunday. Some significant injuries for
29:17Dallas along that defensive front. The Cowboys over in their first three games
29:22this year under in their two consecutive wins on the road. A huge
29:28game right in your viewing window. Gents on Sunday afternoon, a DMV battle
29:34between two incredibly exciting quarterbacks. The guy who might win
29:38offensive Rookie of the Year in Jaden Daniels in the two time NFL MVP Lamar
29:43Jackson, a matchup between two former Heisman Trophy winning QBs. The Ravens
29:49have won three straight fluid. There is 6.5 point favorite at home against the
29:54commanders, but Washington's got the better overall record four and one
29:59covering in all four wins so far this season. What gives on Sunday in
30:04Baltimore? I think this line tells you how the market feels about both of
30:09these teams. Everybody's excited about Jaden Daniels, but the market has not
30:13really wavered that much on more. They obviously had the toe out on opening
30:18night and we were stunned to see them. Oh, and two, but they're back to blowing
30:23teams out. Um, 6.5 is a lot is all I'll say. I don't know how well
30:30Washington's defense can match up against this Baltimore rushing attack,
30:34and that's going to be the thing early in the game. It's why I really like
30:38this Joe. When we talk on Sunday as a live opportunity, I don't want to lay
30:436.5. But if Washington gets on the board early and we get this down to
30:47Baltimore laying 2.5, that's where I feel comfortable. You see the numbers
30:52for this game. You see the numbers for the quarterbacks. Jaden Daniels
30:56continues his historic start. The only QB in his first five games in NFL
31:01history with more than 1000 passing yards and more than 2 50 on the ground
31:06as well. Lamar Jackson knows a thing or two about being a dual threat and a
31:10guy that could do it all in this matchup. More around the Sunday slate
31:15quarterback changes a big theme in a lot of spots on this Sunday slate in
31:20week number six. Let's start with the rookie, the third overall pick for the
31:25New England Patriots. Drake May makes his NFL starting debut on Sunday at
31:31home in Foxborough against the Houston Texans. It's a 6.5 point spread in
31:39favor of Houston on the road. The total is minimal 37 and a half fluid.
31:46I'm not sure there was ever a spot this year that you could point to for Drake
31:51May to get his first start for the pats and say, yep, perfect. He's gonna go out
31:56there and excel. I just know I don't think this is a very favorable starting
32:01debut for May against Houston. Yeah, I'm with you on this one that I think
32:07they were gonna pull the band aid off as at some point. But as Joe and I have
32:13had an opportunity to watch Jacoby percent way too many times this year,
32:18it isn't really all on him. But there was a key play last week where they had
32:23third and long late in the game. There's a one score game and he like threw it
32:27away. I'm like, I don't know that this is the kind of play that we want is
32:32somebody just surviving until the next down. We're trying to actually win the
32:36football game. So I hopefully Drake May could be a little bit more of a play
32:41maker. He's obviously more mobile than preset. So maybe he'll be in a position
32:46where he can flush, get flushed out of the pocket and run a little bit. He's
32:50not Jaden Daniels clearly, but he might be able to make more plays in that
32:54capacity. That said, I think the only way that I would play this one is taking
32:59the Patriots under. It's 15 and a half. I understand it's low, but I think
33:05they're going to send the house at him with him being a rookie and he's going
33:09to be able to, he's going to have to make plays with his legs because this
33:14receiving core isn't really much for him. I'd look for him to probably be
33:17checking down to tight ends Hunter Henry and that crew for the foreseeable
33:22future because the offensive line is as big a problem as Jacoby percent was
33:26probably a bigger one.
33:29The other problem too is Texans are a bottom five rushing defense and we know
33:34what New England is going to do rushing the ball. So that'll be extremely
33:37interesting. That might be a little closer than anybody wants to admit
33:40there for Houston. What are we doing though when it comes to Tampa Bay who
33:47unfortunately had to go through the devastation there, that area of the
33:51hurricane here, they have been in New Orleans all week. The box, they've got
33:57this game coming in. We know New Orleans has got a new quarterback for better or
34:03for worse here. I, this is a tough spot. You got to think maybe where are the
34:08minds of the Tampa Bay buck players here after this, but they should be new
34:14Orleans, right, right.
34:16Yes, but both huge changes this week. This feels like Joe, we, we have tried
34:26to bet the NFC South unders on a regular basis. This one feels like a
34:32hard under to me. I think both teams are trying to get through this. Uh, New
34:39Orleans trying to get it through it with any more significant injuries,
34:45getting rattler in there for the first time to see how he can take over. I'd be
34:50worried about rattler being a turnover guy. We saw a little bit of that in
34:54college, not a little bit of that. We saw a significant amount of that in
34:57college. At times, the bucks are starting to get a little healthier
35:02defensively. So I think there's a little bit more of a conservative game plan.
35:06Maybe you get some baker magic on the road. He's obviously somebody that can
35:10motivate his teammates in tough situations. But this just feels like a
35:15low scoring game. And we talked about it often divisional home underdogs. This
35:21is unique because we have a rookie starting for the first time, but I don't
35:25want to bet against that. So again, three and a half is too many for me to
35:28lay. I'll take the under here. New Orleans saints were a dog last week to
35:33Kansas city on Monday night. The first time not covering as an underdog so far
35:38this season, they were over in their first two games and offensive juggernaut.
35:43They have been under in two of their last three, no passing prompts listed
35:47for this game on either side because of the rookie Spencer Rattler making his
35:53start. I don't disagree with the placement of Rattler as the starter for
35:58new Orleans, just intriguing the process. He was the inactive third
36:02string emergency quarterback in the opening five weeks of this year. Jake
36:06Hayner has appeared in three games for new Orleans blew it. Your Steelers will
36:11be facing off against a new starting quarterback for the Raiders as well. New,
36:16but we have also seen him in spots so far in his NFL career. The Steelers, a
36:21three point road favorite in Las Vegas against Aiden O'Connell and the Raiders.
36:27He gets the start week six. It was Gardner Minshew getting the starting
36:30nod. The opening five games of this year. O'Connell, though, did play 11
36:35times last year in his rookie campaign out of Purdue. He made 10 starts. The
36:40Steelers blew it off to a three and oh start have dropped three in a row. Do
36:44they get back on track in Sin City on Sunday? I think so. But again, the
36:49problem with the Steelers is these terrible first half starts. They don't
36:53get any drives together. They don't score points in the first half and then
36:57there they are in the second half. Even if they about played the other team,
37:00they're in a one score game in the fourth quarter in every game. So until
37:05they start to fix what's plaguing them in the first half and having consistent
37:09offense for two halves, that's just where we're going to be. 36.5 is
37:14probably a really sharp number. I could see a 20 to 16 victory right around
37:19that number. 20 to 17 was the score the other night. So I don't know that I'm
37:24eager to bet the under. That's the way I would lean. I do think the Steelers
37:29go on the road and get this victory. We see them often play down their level of
37:34competition, which is concerning. But after a three game losing streak, I
37:38think they get back on the good foot and create some problems for Aidan
37:41O'Connell.
37:43Since the start of 2022, the Steelers have been a good favored side, 10 and
37:49six against the spread, but no covers and two outright losses as slight
37:53favorites. Each of the past two weeks quickly here blew it. We saw Russell
37:58Wilson back at practice fully for the first time in five weeks. Will the
38:03Steelers also be undergoing a starting quarterback change here soon? I
38:08think if what happened last several weeks happens again, I think they have
38:13to consider it. They can't get off to these bad starts. It is. It is causing
38:18losses. They can't score in the first half. Justin Fields has been the guy
38:23might rust take over in the next few weeks that we shall see a couple of
38:28more games to preview to conclude the Sunday slate up next. Like two more
38:33games to conclude the entirety of the Sunday slate in week number six, the
38:38second weekend of October, Mike Blewett is here for his third consecutive
38:42segment and blew the Chargers, one of the four teams on the by in week five,
38:46a time to rest to get healthier for their quarterback, Justin Herbert. But
38:50maybe more importantly, on the defensive side of the football and up front for
38:54their O line as well, because we know what Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want
38:59to do, run the ball and run you to death. Will they be able to do it in
39:04Denver with the lowest total of the weekend? The Chargers, a three point
39:08road favorite in mile high against a Broncos team that has a winning record
39:13because of three consecutive victories. 35.5 is that very low total. What
39:21happens in Denver on Sunday, Mike Blewett?
39:23You have to think that this total makes a lot of sense, right? We're not. We're
39:30not moving. We're not running all up and down the field. We're not. We're not
39:34going deep with too many targets here. Bo Nix has looked better. I think Sean
39:39Payton's team is playing the way he wants them to play. I think we all
39:43understand that they have some limitations offensively, but the Denver
39:48defense has shown to be a really good unit and is helping them to win games.
39:52Um, I like the fact that Los Angeles had a week off, had a chance to get a
39:58little bit healthier and a flat three makes a lot of sense here. But again,
40:02this is a home divisional dog. I like L. A. Coming off the pie. I think they're
40:07going to establish the run, but another situation where I don't want to lay
40:11three points. The Chargers are one of the least dynamic offensive teams in
40:15the league. As you said, Ben, they know we know what they want to do. They're
40:18not shy about it and they're good at it. Give J. K. Dobbins the over on
40:23rushing attempts nearly every week. They're going to try to get there. So,
40:27uh, I'm I would not lay the three. This is another interesting live betting
40:32opportunity. Since I like the Chargers to win, I think I might wait for Denver
40:36to score first and come in on the Chargers. Maybe look for a middle. But
40:40if you're pressing me right now, I would take the three points as a
40:43divisional home dog. I think Sean Payton is doing a really good job with,
40:47I think something we would all admit is not his best roster, and they've
40:52been a competitive team thus far this season.
40:55Yeah, having, uh, I believe we're Sean Slater and Joel back this week, both
41:00starting tackles for the Chargers will help a lot with how much that team
41:05likes the blitz. You mentioned coming off a buy earlier. While Tennessee, uh,
41:11who I think should have a couple more wins than what they do right now, taking
41:15on another banged up in the team that lost the heartbreaker in Jacksonville
41:21here. My two and a half. It's a big divisional battle here. What do you
41:25think we're gonna get?
41:28I mean, you and I are going to spend an unusual amount of time on this game on
41:33Sunday. I could just tell right now because this is going to be a turnover
41:38best. That's my prediction for this game. We are going to be turning the
41:42ball over, and you and I are going to be sitting there as we go through our
41:46seven or eight games saying, What happened now in Tennessee? How is the
41:51other team have the ball back again? So from whatever turnovers prop you want
41:56to play here, Tennessee shouldn't be a two and a half point favorite against
42:00anybody. I understand why they are, but I think I'll just take the points here
42:05and what will I predict be the ugliest game of the week.
42:09Yeah, I think it is going to be, but I think the ugliness might actually favor
42:14Indianapolis. We're not exactly sure yet who is going to get the start at the QB
42:19spot for Indy. Is it the veteran Joe Flacco that almost led the Colts to a
42:23dramatic comeback last week in Jacksonville? Or will it be the second
42:27year pro Anthony Richardson? I will say this. Whoever is going to start on
42:33Sunday, they're better than Will Levis. Anthony Richardson, though, back at
42:37practice, a full participant yesterday. That's a good sign of being back under
42:42center. Jonathan Taylor should help as well. All right, Bluett, final minute of
42:48this segment. We've gone through all 12 games on Sunday. If you had to share a
42:52best bet or an early best bet lean, what would it be?
42:57I think I'll go back to my Pat's points under and maybe even team total over. I
43:05just think that, like I said earlier, delaying the six and a half is a lot,
43:10and maybe we find a live betting opportunity. I just think that the
43:13Ravens are getting to a point where their offense is cruising right now. I
43:18still have some questions about the commanders defensively in the secondary.
43:24Dan Quinn's done a really good job, and they've been pressuring quarterbacks,
43:28but this is Lamar Jackson, and I think that he will create some issues for
43:32them. So I kind of like some team total unders and over, but Detroit, probably
43:37my favorite of the teams that we went through in my segments here.
43:41Yeah, we've got two games with a total of 50 or higher, including a great one
43:46in the Charm City. Mike Bluett, we'll see you on Sunday, NFL football in-game
43:50live game day. Thanks for your time. Hour three up next.