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00:00:00So, with a huge matchup in the NFC East to kick off week number 11, how does it reshape
00:00:06that playoff picture around the entire conference?
00:00:09As we shared, the Eagles the second best price to win the NFC, second best number to be the
00:00:15number one overall seed, but greater than a $2.00 favorite at minus $2.10.
00:00:20To earn that top spot in the NFC playoff picture, that is the Detroit Lions, 8-1 for Detroit.
00:00:27Of course, right now, they have won seven consecutive games.
00:00:30The Eagles on a six-game win streak in Detroit, nearly a two-touchdown home favorite against
00:00:35Matt Jones and the Jags on Sunday.
00:00:38So, more than likely going to improve that record to 9-1.
00:00:42The Falcons in pole position of the NFC South, only team above .500 in that division.
00:00:48They might walk to the divisional championship just because of how weak the competition is
00:00:54around Atlanta.
00:00:55The Cardinals, who have won four straight games and are at 6-4, still the top team in
00:01:01the NFC West.
00:01:02Now, let's get to those wildcard positions.
00:01:05A lot of NFC North in the mix.
00:01:07The Vikings at 7-2.
00:01:09The Packers at 6-3, emerging out of the bye in a divisional duel this week on a Sunday
00:01:15at Soldier Field in Chicago.
00:01:18In the Commanders, Joe, based on the loss last night, now 7-4.
00:01:21Of course, they've already played 11 games.
00:01:24That's two more at this current moment than both Minnesota and Green Bay.
00:01:29They would be the seventh and final team in the NFC playoff picture, that third and final
00:01:35wildcard team.
00:01:36And I do want to start with Washington, because although we have shared Philadelphia, favorite
00:01:42last night, taking care of business, winning by eight, really in command late in the fourth
00:01:47quarter, where it mattered most, and covered as a four-and-a-half-point home favorite,
00:01:52the feeling around the Commanders, Joe, that even if they don't win the NFC East because
00:01:56of how well the Eagles are playing, they're still a playoff team.
00:02:01Minus 800 entering Thursday night and Week 11, now minus 550.
00:02:06Yes, the number has taken a big hit, but still a minus 550 price for Jaden Daniels, Dan Quinn,
00:02:13and the rest of Washington to see the postseason.
00:02:16Yeah, I mean, they do have a tough closing schedule.
00:02:20I think two games against obvious, one more game against Washington now, plus one against
00:02:25the Ravens and the Steelers over the final weeks here.
00:02:30But I think they are very live here at this price.
00:02:35And if I was going to look anywhere else down this board, the Lions are the obvious choice,
00:02:40but no value in them, right?
00:02:42Tell me why we're not betting the 49ers at five and four right now at this point, given
00:02:48their history, they're healthiest as they've been, and they have always been a much better
00:02:53second-half team over the years with Shanahan.
00:02:57And it feels like if we're looking anywhere, shouldn't the 49ers be on a ticket somewhere
00:03:02in our pocket?
00:03:04I would think so, Joe, plus 550, the price on San Francisco right now, who like Detroit
00:03:10at this moment, entering Week 11, $2 shy of everybody else in the conference.
00:03:16That used to be San Francisco.
00:03:18In fact, it was the 49ers for all of the off season into the early part of this regular
00:03:24season.
00:03:25And yeah, it, it has not been a great start for the Niners where offensive injuries have
00:03:29been a huge narrative for this team this season.
00:03:33They are now getting healthier.
00:03:34Of course, they won't have Brennan Ayuk for the remainder of this season, but Ricky Pearsall
00:03:39is back and looking darn good with his young quarterback, Brock Purdy, Debo Samuel is healthy.
00:03:45George Kittle is healthy.
00:03:46And obviously, most importantly, Christian McCaffrey is back.
00:03:51You know, what's really fascinating, Joe, about the 49ers, they've been booked as a
00:03:54favorite in every single game since the start of last year.
00:03:58And to start last year, they began a perfect undefeated five and O.
00:04:03We almost kind of forget because the Niners ended up reaching the mountaintop and playing
00:04:08in a Super Bowl that they dropped three consecutive games where we all started to question, ooh,
00:04:13is Brock Purdy really that guy that Kyle Shanahan needs to elevate this offense?
00:04:18They dropped three consecutive games entering their bye conveniently also in week number
00:04:23nine, which is the same bye week this year for San Francisco.
00:04:27And then in week number 10, they started against a team from Florida.
00:04:31They blew out the Jaguars.
00:04:32Of course, it was not easy for the 49ers in Tampa on Sunday, but they beat Jacksonville
00:04:38last year that began a six game win streak and everybody was like, okay, yeah, this is
00:04:42the best team in the NFL, if not just the best team in the NFC.
00:04:47The Niners could be on a similar track, three, six and a half point home favorite on Sunday
00:04:51in Santa Clara, by the way, against the Seahawks.
00:04:54And I would just say this, if you're looking for that value outside of the plus 550 number
00:04:59on San Francisco, now I have already bet this.
00:05:02It is one of the two division tickets that I hold Philadelphia in the NFC East in San
00:05:08Francisco in the NFC West.
00:05:10They are still the favorites at plus 105, 35 cents in front of Arizona, despite the
00:05:17fact that Cardinals have the head to head tiebreaker advantage at this moment.
00:05:21And of course, that half game lead for the top spot.
00:05:24And keep in mind, those two teams meet again, Ben, you ready for this in week 18, which
00:05:30could be determining whether you cash that ticket, ironically enough.
00:05:35But I do think between now and week 18, I do think the Cardinals will probably give
00:05:40away a couple of games.
00:05:42And I think the 49ers will have a cushion heading into week 18.
00:05:47So Joe, when you look at the rest of the NFC playoff picture, are there any other teams
00:05:52currently outside of San Francisco who just belabored that point?
00:05:56Are there any other teams not currently in those top eight that you would think might
00:06:02be able to make a run?
00:06:04Is there anybody else that still has a little bit of life elsewhere around the NFC?
00:06:08Oh, yeah.
00:06:10I mean, the Bears, right?
00:06:12I can't even say it with a straight face.
00:06:15I'm sorry.
00:06:16No, the Packers, Ben, seem to be the one team.
00:06:20I mean, I think the projections have them at about a 75 percent shot of actually making
00:06:26a wild card spot at this point, given the Lions and the lead that they have here.
00:06:32Listen, the Packers did this last year.
00:06:35They too have been battling some injury concerns, especially with Jordan Love.
00:06:40But there is, I like the defenses improved, the offense for the most part pretty much
00:06:44exactly what we had last year.
00:06:46I think if they start playing their best football here from this point on, which is what they
00:06:51did last year, yeah, the Packers are still a very dangerous team in my mind, because
00:06:57I think they have the better defense this year.
00:07:00Yeah, and they're minus 300 right now to make the postseason, five and a half point road
00:07:05favorite in the Windy City against Chicago.
00:07:08Will we get the interim bump out of the Bears because of the dismissal of Shane Waldron?
00:07:12Does it count for offensive coordinators?
00:07:15I guess we'll see.
00:07:17I don't really believe there's a lot of belief in anybody else on that coaching staff in
00:07:22Chicago at this moment.
00:07:24I expect the Pack to bounce back emerging out of the bye week.
00:07:28Joe, I think we're starting to see the Vikings come back down to earth a little bit, but
00:07:31because of the perfect undefeated five and 0 start, they're a minus 650 favorite to reach
00:07:37the NFC postseason.
00:07:39Here is one team that I would just highlight that might be able to make a stretch run.
00:07:44Now getting healthier and healthier, a costly loss on Monday night.
00:07:49But the LA Rams who are at five or four and five, they're plus 440 to reach the postseason.
00:07:56They're also plus 900 to win the NFC West.
00:07:59And the reason I highlight the divisional number is because the Rams still have half
00:08:04of the division games left.
00:08:06They're already two and one in the NFC West with wins against San Francisco and against
00:08:11Seattle.
00:08:12They did drop a game in week number two to Arizona.
00:08:16If they are going to be a playoff team, already a game below 500 after nine games, then they
00:08:23kind of need to win every game on the horizon to even sniff the wild card because of those
00:08:29NFC North teams that have built up the pedigree.
00:08:33So if they have to win a lot of the games just straight up and they still have three
00:08:37division games left and they got to get through those teams.
00:08:41Maybe you look at the nine to one NFC West price as a small sprinkle as well.
00:08:46Yeah.
00:08:47I, and you, and you have to, and I, and I'll tell you this.
00:08:51If they get healthier, are we just sticking a fork in Tampa Bay?
00:08:57Unless of course they, you know, if they can get their wide receivers back or at least
00:09:01Evans back in the fold.
00:09:04Yeah.
00:09:05I don't trust Atlanta.
00:09:06No, me neither.
00:09:07Right.
00:09:08And Atlanta has not looked good.
00:09:10And the Falcons are a two and a half point road dog in Denver this week.
00:09:15That is also crazy.
00:09:16We get ready for a huge Sunday.
00:09:20I mean, when you look at the week 11 Sunday slate up and down the board, you can go and
00:09:25find your favorite matchup or perhaps the most marquee or the most significant and important
00:09:30game of the NFL week 11 Sunday slate.
00:09:34But I think first and foremost, Joe, most people go to Western New York and an absolute
00:09:39showdown a game of the year three potential in orchard park between the Buffalo bills
00:09:46and the Kansas city chiefs.
00:09:48The bills two and a half point home favorite total stands at 46 and a half.
00:09:53Of course, we mentioned the injury to Harrison Bucker.
00:09:56He is now on injured reserve.
00:09:57Spencer Schrader elevated from the jets practice squad will be Casey's kicker.
00:10:02I highlight that Joe, just because the spread is around three, but it's in favor of Buffalo.
00:10:09This will be the second time this year for Kansas city as an underdog.
00:10:13And Joe, what's remarkable about this game since the merger way back in 1970, this is
00:10:20only the fifth ever matchup in the NFL since 1970 week 11 or greater that features two
00:10:28teams that each have at least eight wins.
00:10:32Buffalo has won five straight games.
00:10:34They are eight and two Kansas city has won nine consecutive games.
00:10:39In fact, all nine of their games, there's a lone undefeated team remaining in the NFL at
00:10:45nine and oh, two and a half point spread in favor of Buffalo with all of the narratives
00:10:51entering Sunday in Western New York.
00:10:54So Gervin, Harry, tell us here on a football Friday, we'll game of the year three deliver
00:11:00the hype. I think it will, and I think that Kansas city at this point, I don't think you
00:11:08need to overthink this.
00:11:09I think Kansas city and every teaser known to mankind should be considered this week to
00:11:15get them up to over eight and a half.
00:11:17I just don't.
00:11:19And it would not shock me.
00:11:21And I don't think anybody here should be shocked as Patrick Mahomes dominates in these
00:11:26spots, guys. He's 12, one and one against the number as a dog, including the playoffs.
00:11:31He's 11 and three straight up in those games.
00:11:34He's finally on the same page with Travis Kelsey, who has been absolutely huge for them.
00:11:40And yes, they have a ton of one score wins here.
00:11:44And that eventually will come back down to reality.
00:11:47But unless I'm missing something, the Chiefs aren't going to go undefeated.
00:11:51But I think the loss comes from inside the division, Ben.
00:11:55I think the Chargers or Denver in the second go around might beat them.
00:12:01I don't think it's coming from the Buffalo Bills here, the Bills.
00:12:06And if I'm the Bills, I'm OK with losing this game, Ben, because you've beaten them in the
00:12:10regular season before and had that work out in the playoffs.
00:12:13I think all the value is on Kansas City right now to win this thing.
00:12:18I tease them and I'd money line them all day long this weekend.
00:12:2211 outright wins in only 14 games is Kansas City starter as an underdog for Patrick
00:12:30Mahomes. Since 2022, they were not booked as a dog at all in the 2022 NFL campaign.
00:12:37So really, in the last year and a half, Kansas City has been an underdog just five times.
00:12:43They have won outright in all five of those games, including three games on the road or at
00:12:49a neutral site in last year's playoff run that included a divisional round in Orchard
00:12:57Park against the Bills.
00:12:59And Joe, as we compare the tail of the tape, of course, this game will be monumental.
00:13:05It has that significant feeling and atmosphere to it.
00:13:08But Josh Allen and the Bills have tried to downplay it and perhaps correctly.
00:13:13So the Chiefs are the favorites to win the AFC plus one.
00:13:17Eighty five makes a ton of sense.
00:13:19Buffalo third best number at four to one.
00:13:21The Ravens at a plus two ninety price sandwiched in between the Chiefs because of the nine
00:13:27and oh start or a minus three seventy favorite to be the AFC's number one seed.
00:13:32You're right, Joe. They're not going to stay perfect all year long.
00:13:34They are more than likely not going to be unbeaten at 17 and oh.
00:13:39But one thing a nine and oh start gives you, even if you can poke some holes in the victory
00:13:43margin, that is ninth best in the NFL, which is six point four.
00:13:47Buffalo's victory margin much better than that of Kansas City, despite the two losses for
00:13:52the Bills. The nine and oh start pretty much puts Kansas City atop the AFC, where the
00:13:57Chiefs now get to undo what happened to them last year, going on the road for the first
00:14:03time in the AFC postseason or not hosting the AFC championship game because that's where
00:14:10Kansas City has been in the story of this season for Buffalo is not handing Casey its
00:14:16first loss. Heck, it's not even really the regular season the rest of the way for the
00:14:20Bills. It is taking advantage of more than likely winning its fifth consecutive AFC East
00:14:25Divisional crown and doing something of matter with it, of reaching the AFC championship
00:14:31game, of winning said AFC crown and playing in a Super Bowl at long last.
00:14:37Because, Joe, in the four years that Buffalo has won an AFC East Divisional crown entering
00:14:43this season, they have been bounced from the postseason in three straight years in the
00:14:47divisional round and in three of the four, the team that handed them the exit from the
00:14:52playoffs, these Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in each of the
00:14:58last three regular seasons to only come up short when it mattered most once again in
00:15:04the playoffs. So I think it's smart for Buffalo to downplay the significance of this
00:15:08game. Not that we can lose.
00:15:10It doesn't matter. It's still going to be a great game, but Buffalo knows what lies
00:15:15ahead. And it's really not this matchup in week 11.
00:15:18It's not. And that's the other question that I've had all week, Ben, is when you think
00:15:23about it is how much are we really going to get from these two teams?
00:15:27Like, what is Andy Reid really going to open up the playbook and going to make this some
00:15:32these two teams know each other?
00:15:34They're not going to do anything over the top in week 11 to try and win this game.
00:15:39That's not the end all be all for either of these teams, Ben.
00:15:42So I kind of with you, I think an under is in play and do not be shocked and keep an
00:15:49eye on the injury report, by the way, a lot of Bills players, some concerns on who's going
00:15:54and who's not going today.
00:15:56So that could also determine what happens to this line.
00:16:00Then once we get a clearer picture, Joe, I think it's shocking to see forty six and a
00:16:04half as the total for a game between the Bills and the Chiefs in the under has the juice
00:16:10right now. But you would think that Casey's defense, which is leading the charge to this
00:16:14perfect down to no start, is really the difference.
00:16:16Quickly, let's show the quarterback props entering this game.
00:16:19Josh Allen had played such clean football.
00:16:22First seven games of the year had not thrown a pick.
00:16:24Now a pick in three straight four.
00:16:26I.N.T.'s in that three game span.
00:16:28Meanwhile, the Holmes had thrown an interception in the first seven games for Kansas City,
00:16:33has not thrown a pick in the last two to four touchdown passes, plenty more from an
00:16:39awesome Sunday. What began on a Thursday to kick off week number 11 of this NFL season
00:16:45continues on Sunday.
00:16:47More key matchups, incredibly significant games, individual duels that will decide who
00:16:54earns the top spot in a division at the end of week 11.
00:16:59The Eagles now a game and a half in front of the commanders after a home victory in
00:17:04Philadelphia on Thursday and now improving to eight and two.
00:17:09Elsewhere in the Commonwealth, the Pittsburgh Steelers hoping for the same on Sunday in
00:17:15the AFC North battle for that top spot against the Baltimore Ravens.
00:17:20However, unlike what we saw in Philly, in the Steel City, the home team is not favored.
00:17:26In fact, the flock, a full field goal favorite, that incredibly significant number of three
00:17:33on the road in Pittsburgh, 48 and a half, a total for a Ravens and Steelers game.
00:17:39What happened to the game?
00:17:41I love. But the field goal in terms of that favored side for Baltimore, Joe, let's start
00:17:47there. Is the number two large?
00:17:49Is the correct team favored or do you feel it is fitting for what we will see on Sunday?
00:17:55So a couple of things, got a lot of trends working in in this game, and we know that
00:18:02the underdog always covers this game, always in all likelihood will win out.
00:18:07It's been like that forever.
00:18:09The numbers are ridiculous.
00:18:11You got Tomlin at home as an underdog is outside of the Ravens is absurd.
00:18:17But now you just is battles with Harbaugh over the years.
00:18:21Whoever is the underdog in this series usually ends up not only covering, but winning out
00:18:26right here. We also have a Ravens team that is nine and one to the over.
00:18:31Ben, their games average 57 points.
00:18:34That's two and a half more than any other team right now in the NFL.
00:18:40They are a scoring machine.
00:18:42They can score 30 on everyone.
00:18:44And at the same time with that secondary, guess what?
00:18:47They'll give up 30 to everyone that they play.
00:18:51And Pittsburgh has been absolutely great.
00:18:54I will give it to Russell Wilson.
00:18:56I'll give it to Arthur Smith.
00:18:57Maybe that is the biggest surprise to me so far, Ben, is that Arthur Smith actually created
00:19:04some balance with this offense, didn't make it all about the running game and the ability
00:19:09to be able to stretch the field with pickings.
00:19:11This game is a dead over.
00:19:13There is no way I'm sweating out an under with Ravens Pittsburgh, and it feels crazy
00:19:17to say that November.
00:19:19It does. The Baltimore Ravens have gone over in nine of 10 games, as Joe mentioned, and
00:19:25he mentioned also the average margin.
00:19:27They are going over the expected outcome by nine point three points per game.
00:19:32So again, it's not like this is Navy or Army in this college football season where the
00:19:38totals were 37 and a half and they're scoring 45 points to begin.
00:19:42The Ravens have played in games, including a short week Thursday night game last week
00:19:47that featured a total of 52 and a half, and it ended with a combined 69 nice points.
00:19:54But for the Pittsburgh Steelers, when you look at what Russell Wilson has done in his
00:19:59three starts in a Steelers uniform, of course, they have won all three.
00:20:03They have gone over in all three.
00:20:06They have gone over in four consecutive games.
00:20:09This the highest total of the year, though, for Pittsburgh, which already goes over the
00:20:14highest total of their season, which was last week, 45 and a half against the
00:20:18commanders, and it was nearly over by double digits.
00:20:23Joe, to your point, just quickly about the underdog in this matchup.
00:20:26We share the trend yesterday, courtesy of Stucky.
00:20:28Maybe some of you know him from social media doing some work with the Action Network.
00:20:33I do believe that in this matchup, and of course, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, Tomlin
00:20:38in the Steel City for 18 years now, Harbaugh in the Charm City for 17 seasons.
00:20:43Since Harbaugh arrived in Baltimore in 2008, when the Ravens have been a field goal
00:20:50favorite or more and a matchup against the bitter rivals that are the Steelers, they
00:20:55are 0-10-2 against the Sprint.
00:20:59They have never covered a number when laying at least a field goal, and the Steelers
00:21:05this year are perfect, 3-0 outright, as an underdog.
00:21:11And yet, Joe, when you look at the numbers, Baltimore, despite trailing Pittsburgh by
00:21:15a half game in the division, is a minus-260 favorite to win the AFC North.
00:21:20Is that number slightly skewed if we expect the Steelers to be live on Sunday at home?
00:21:26It absolutely is, Ben, because what is that number if they win this game?
00:21:30It ain't going to be that, and not even remotely close.
00:21:34Listen, 8-3-1 against a number as a home underdog since 2021, with teams that weren't
00:21:41half as good offensively as this one, they are live, Ben, at a good price.
00:21:46And this starts the run for Pittsburgh that is incredibly difficult.
00:21:50All six of their AFC North divisional games start this week, and then to end out the
00:21:56year, they will play in Baltimore week number 16, hour number two next.
00:22:02Live right here on the Early Line on Sports Grid, it is hour number two of a football
00:22:07Friday right here on the Early Line.
00:22:10He is Joe Ranieri, I am Ben Stevens.
00:22:13Of course, our charge each and every football Friday in the NFL season is to preview the
00:22:18entirety of the Sunday slate any given week.
00:22:21It is week number 11 of this NFL campaign, and Joe, there are so many good games that
00:22:27dot the slate on Sunday.
00:22:29Mike Blewett will join us later in this second hour to preview everything.
00:22:34We'll preview every single game on Sunday as well.
00:22:38We'll talk some college football in hour three, some college basketball, NBA Cup, and Jake
00:22:44Paul and Mike Tyson, you heard that right, as well to kick off our third and final hour
00:22:50before our best bets for the weekend.
00:22:52What a football Friday that we still have rolling here for the next two hours on TEL.
00:22:58I mean, a loaded, absolutely loaded weekend in store, Ben.
00:23:03Tonight, great college football, and you mentioned it, man, the ability to see Mike Tyson one
00:23:08last time, put the gloves on in a ring.
00:23:11I'm all for it, man.
00:23:12I can't wait to see it.
00:23:14It will be fun.
00:23:16That is for sure.
00:23:17Got a little bit feisty yesterday at their final weigh-in.
00:23:21All right, so now let's go to this football Friday.
00:23:24We continue to preview every game on the NFL Sunday slate.
00:23:28And Joe, in our opening hour after our recap of Thursday night in Philadelphia, that was
00:23:33a monumental matchup.
00:23:35We previewed the game of the year, potential game of the year three between the Chiefs
00:23:40and the Bills on Sunday in Western New York, a huge AFC North showdown in the Steel City
00:23:46between Pittsburgh and Baltimore that will decide the top spot in the AFC North.
00:23:52You might be thinking, wait, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are at 1 p.m., and the game in
00:23:56Buffalo is at 425.
00:23:58Why are these games not Sunday night?
00:24:00Well, I would hear that argument, but Sunday night, not bad.
00:24:04So far, Sunday night, in fact, in Los Angeles between the Chargers and the Bengals.
00:24:09It is a game that despite being a slight road underdog, Cincinnati can ill afford to lose.
00:24:18Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh gets to a new organization, gets to a new program, and as he has displayed
00:24:25in the entirety of his head coaching career, he wins.
00:24:28Not in a year or two, but right away.
00:24:31The Chargers are 6-3 and a slight home favorite on Sunday night.
00:24:36Total 47-and-a-half.
00:24:37Joe, how do you see Sunday in so far between the Bolts and the Bengals playing out?
00:24:42Well, here's a trivia question for you.
00:24:45Ready, Ben?
00:24:46Who do Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Bo Nix, Spencer Radler, Jameis Winston, and Will Levis
00:24:51all have in common this year?
00:24:53Yeah.
00:24:54They lost to the Chargers.
00:24:55Bingo!
00:24:56There you go.
00:24:57Those are the quarterbacks the Chargers have managed to figure out how to beat.
00:25:03Joe Burrow, yeah, not in that category, even remotely close, nor are they even remotely
00:25:09close offensively, Cincinnati, to any of those teams that they've already beat.
00:25:13And listen, the market is telling you that, Ben.
00:25:16This is 1-and-a-half.
00:25:19It would appear to me the market has no idea.
00:25:22They're not comfortable with laying the customary 2-and-a-half, maybe 3 here for the Chargers.
00:25:28We already know they don't have a great home field advantage over the years, but let's
00:25:33be realistic here.
00:25:35I mean, Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow, and anybody else they want to throw at them, the Chargers'
00:25:41defense, this is going to be a lot for them to deal with.
00:25:44They had a lot to deal with against Tennessee last week.
00:25:47I think this is do-or-die for Cincinnati again.
00:25:51I think the market listing this at minus 1-and-a-half tells you they're not all in on the Chargers.
00:25:57I think Cincinnati has a really good opportunity to put points up against this defense, and
00:26:02I like the Chargers.
00:26:04I don't like them in this spot against Cincinnati at all.
00:26:07I completely agree, Joe.
00:26:09I would say that's exactly how I feel on this game.
00:26:11We'll see it later in our Sunday Pick 6 for NFL Week No. 11.
00:26:17My outright underdog, my Moneyline underdog is Cincinnati.
00:26:21It is a game the Bengals cannot lose, because if they do, they will be 4-and-7, and at a
00:26:27certain point, Joe, you have to really wonder what the rest of the season has.
00:26:32I would say the margin of error for Cincy is incredibly limited.
00:26:37Maybe one more loss, potentially two, but that would be it, and 9-and-8 would not make
00:26:44it feel easy coming down the home stretch of the final two and three weeks of the NFL
00:26:49season.
00:26:50The Bengals still have a lot of divisional games on the horizon, both games against the
00:26:55Steelers, and Pittsburgh's looking pretty darn good, and another one against the Browns,
00:27:00if I am not mistaken.
00:27:01They've already played the Ravens, and as we talked about on a Football Friday exactly
00:27:05a week ago, they will look back on their season.
00:27:08If they miss out on the playoffs and say, we squandered opportunities to knock off the
00:27:13flock, they cannot let this opportunity pass them by.
00:27:17Now, LA has won three consecutive games, four of their last five.
00:27:20The Chargers have covered in all six victories this season.
00:27:24Joe, this total for LA, kind of like we highlighted for Pittsburgh and Baltimore, is by far the
00:27:31highest the Bolts have played this season.
00:27:33The previous highest total, that Monday night doubleheader game in the desert against Arizona,
00:27:3844-and-a-half, those two teams didn't even come close to even threatening that total,
00:27:4317-to-15, the final score, the Chargers did lose on the road.
00:27:48In fact, the Chargers have gone under in seven of nine games.
00:27:52If LA is going to win, this game stays under.
00:27:56But if Joe Burrow gets the better of Justin Herbert, as we might expect as we compare
00:28:00these quarterbacks, that favors the Bengals, and the Bengals in a big way.
00:28:05Yeah, it absolutely does, Ben, and I do think there is a correlation.
00:28:11But we've also seen Charger home games go under, right?
00:28:15I mean, we've seen 44, 34, 27, and 32 in the last four home games for the Chargers, total
00:28:22points.
00:28:23They average, at home, their games average around 33.8 points.
00:28:28That's four less than any team.
00:28:31The Chargers don't play at a fast pace, but the Chargers also have done a great job of
00:28:35playing from in front.
00:28:36The Chargers have not found themselves, Ben, having to play from behind, can't take the
00:28:41time and run the ball if you're trailing, and I think that's what we're going to see.
00:28:46I think the Bengals can score, score quickly, and then I think the Chargers are going to
00:28:50have to play catch up.
00:28:52That's where the over comes into play.
00:28:54You know the recipe for LA, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman told us all about it way back in
00:28:59the summer.
00:29:00They take the onus off Justin Herbert, unlike his first four years in the league, and establish
00:29:05the freaking run.
00:29:07They do a great job of doing that.
00:29:10In fact, last week's win was the first of their six.
00:29:12The J.K.
00:29:13Dobbins did not score a touchdown.
00:29:16The Bolts are the best scoring defense in the NFL.
00:29:18Jesse Minter has been incredible in his first year in the National Football League as a
00:29:23defensive coordinator.
00:29:25The Bengals are not a good scoring defense.
00:29:27They're giving up more than 26 points per game.
00:29:30And since he has its defensive issues, Joe, they're not terrible against the run.
00:29:35So if they can slow that down early, and the Bengals can score often and early, that puts
00:29:41the Chargers in a position they do not want to be.
00:29:45Again, huge game for Cincinnati.
00:29:47The back half of the AFC, not great.
00:29:50Both of these teams contending for wild card spots.
00:29:53The Chargers in a great position to start in its first nine games.
00:29:57The Bengals, not so much, but a win on Sunday would be huge.
00:30:03And I would just say this.
00:30:04If the Bengals do make a charge to the postseason, that 30-to-1 price on Joe Burrow to win MVP
00:30:12is going to look a lot different.
00:30:14Because Joe, that's the only thing not making that price 3-to-1 right now.
00:30:18The numbers, the efficiency, the passing, touchdowns, the yardage, all of it is there
00:30:22for Joey B. It's just the fact his Bengals team got off to a winless 0-3 start.
00:30:27And they're still two games below .500.
00:30:30Yeah, and it's a good point here, Ben.
00:30:33Because I do think, obviously, they go as Joe Burrow goes.
00:30:37So if they are able to string together some wins here, they're going to rack up a whole
00:30:42lot of yards.
00:30:43He's going to rack up a whole lot of style points.
00:30:46And also keep in mind, they are 5-0 on the road against the number this year, Cincinnati.
00:30:51So say what you want.
00:30:52Yes, they are.
00:30:53Burrow is not going to be intimidated by any of this.
00:30:55I mean, maybe, just maybe, Higgins sees the field again in this game.
00:31:01He was back at practice yesterday.
00:31:03People examining the way he ran up the hill and across the street to get to the Bengals
00:31:08practice field.
00:31:09And Joe Burrow, by the way, is an underdog, Joe, as you well know, 17-3 against the spread
00:31:15in his NFL career.
00:31:16Plenty more from the Sunday slate next.
00:31:19A big game on Sunday in Santa Clara between the 49ers and the Seahawks.
00:31:24An NFC West showdown important for San Francisco, trying to stay above .500 and contend once
00:31:31again for the NFC West.
00:31:33They are a half game behind the Arizona Cardinals at this moment, who they lost to earlier this
00:31:39year.
00:31:40San Francisco has not been great in the division, trying to figure it out on Sunday at home.
00:31:46But Christian McCaffrey is back for a second consecutive week following the bye in San
00:31:51Francisco, Joe, who has been booked as a favorite in every single game since the start
00:31:56of last year, nearly a touchdown favorite against the Seahawks, who are also coming
00:32:01out of the bye.
00:32:03How do you see this game near the Bay playing out on Sunday?
00:32:08So I think you just nailed it there, Ben, right?
00:32:1149ers versus Seahawks.
00:32:12Let's see what we've got.
00:32:13Six straight wins, I see, by 20 points, 8 points, 18 points, 18 points, 12 points, and
00:32:2112 points.
00:32:22That means the median winning margin is right around 12, 12 and a half.
00:32:27This line is six and a half.
00:32:28Yeah, OK, I'm good on the 49ers.
00:32:31I'm good.
00:32:32Yeah.
00:32:33If it ain't broke, Ben, we ain't fixing it here.
00:32:36And I ain't fixing this either.
00:32:37I think the Seahawks, I don't know what they, not a whole lot to be excited about here.
00:32:43Gino Smith kind of regressed after that 3-0 start.
00:32:48Injuries, obviously, the running game not there.
00:32:51Mike McDonald, maybe not the first-year head coach, defensive genius that everyone made
00:32:57him out to see.
00:32:58So yeah, I think the 49ers, very comfortable against the Seattle team, and they'll also
00:33:04be very comfortable running away from them.
00:33:06So under a touchdown, I'm good with the 49ers.
00:33:09Yeah, I thought the 49ers would win comfortably in Tampa last week.
00:33:14It was not comfortable, and yet it was a victory.
00:33:17Seattle started 3-0, but just won 1-1 against the spread, and based on the competition,
00:33:22many people felt maybe it was perhaps a fraudulent start.
00:33:26Well, the Seahawks have now dropped five of their last six.
00:33:29They have not covered in any of those five losses.
00:33:32Four of those five booked as an underdog.
00:33:34They are just 1-4 ATS as a dog this year.
00:33:38The only cover was an outright victory in Atlanta.
00:33:42I also don't really believe in the Falcons.
00:33:44Seattle over in five of its first six games, now under in three consecutive entering the
00:33:50bye.
00:33:51I would just mention this.
00:33:52I thought we'd see way more points last week between the Niners and the Buccaneers.
00:33:57We did not stay well under a total that was slightly north of 50.
00:34:01It was the first time in any of the five wins for the 49ers this season that San Francisco
00:34:07failed to cover, to go over the pregame total, or to score 30-plus points.
00:34:13I think that offense is in for one on Sunday.
00:34:16Here's a really interesting line, Joe.
00:34:21Oh, OK.
00:34:22I knew it was going to be.
00:34:24It was so interesting, in fact, that Ben has to double-check it, and we'll get back to
00:34:28him in a second.
00:34:29I will also say this, keeping in mind with that 49er and Seattle game, is that we did
00:34:36see the first go-around in that game.
00:34:39Don't forget, no Christian McCaffrey.
00:34:40They had their number three and number four running backs who gashed them for 228 rushing
00:34:46yards in the game.
00:34:47So what are you going to do with Christian McCaffrey back in the fold now?
00:34:51So yeah, all over the 49ers here, Ben.
00:34:54Who only had 13 carries for 39 yards in his season debut against the Buccaneers, but 68
00:35:00receiving, still 107 scrimmage yards.
00:35:02Again, we will talk about that in just a little bit in our third and final hour.
00:35:08As I was saying, intriguing matchup at mile high on Sunday.
00:35:12The Broncos are now an even 500.
00:35:14They have dropped two straight.
00:35:15They have been greater than a touchdown underdog in each of those two.
00:35:19They got blitzed by Baltimore in Baltimore.
00:35:22Of course, we're going to upset the Chiefs until a blocked field goal as time expired
00:35:28last week in KC.
00:35:30The Falcons are six and four.
00:35:32We've said this a few times.
00:35:33Atlanta lost last week to the interim head coach in New Orleans as the Saints were riding
00:35:39a seven game skid.
00:35:41Not a great look for the Falcons, but they've built up a big enough lead in the NFC South,
00:35:46the only team above 500, and they've won four of their first five divisional games that
00:35:50really Joe, the Falcons are going to take advantage of a bad division and be a playoff
00:35:54team.
00:35:55But just how good is Atlanta?
00:35:57Let that line kind of show you Denver is a home favorite.
00:36:01It was two and a half.
00:36:02Now it's just a point in a hook, total 43 and a half down from where it was just yesterday
00:36:08at 44 and a half.
00:36:10How do you break down the matchup at mile high?
00:36:13Yeah, I think it's a bone X got to give him credit.
00:36:19Sean Payton.
00:36:20I think he's he's managing games very well.
00:36:24I like what we saw from him last week.
00:36:27There are going to be opportunities against this Falcons defense to be able to put points
00:36:33up on the board.
00:36:34I think the real difference is going to be what is the Atlanta defense versus the Denver
00:36:40defense?
00:36:41Who do we trust more here?
00:36:42And again, I have issues here with Kurt Cousins outdoors in mile high against a defense that
00:36:49is going to go and get him.
00:36:52It's a havoc, a really wrecking havoc style of defense here.
00:36:58Very physical.
00:36:59Don't trust Atlanta outdoors.
00:37:01I do think the Broncos will bounce back after a game.
00:37:04They should have won at Arrowhead.
00:37:06I think they'll get one here against Atlanta.
00:37:09You know, that whole AFC Atlanta three and nine against the number versus the AFC since
00:37:142022.
00:37:15They don't tend to play well in these games.
00:37:18The Broncos also seven and three against the spread.
00:37:21But when they have been booked as a favorite, it's been for good reason.
00:37:24They're perfect.
00:37:26And oh, I agree with you, Joe.
00:37:29I didn't.
00:37:30The line is telling us something all back the Broncos.
00:37:33So here we go.
00:37:35Sunday at Soldier Field in New Indy City.
00:37:38It's been a tumultuous last month for Caleb Williams, Matt Eber Fluser and the Chicago
00:37:44Bears.
00:37:45And I do not think the firing of Shane Waldron and the change of offensive play caller really
00:37:50fixes it.
00:37:51I'm not even sure it's a bandaid over a gassing wound.
00:37:55But the market has moved a little bit.
00:37:56The Packers out of a buy and a bad loss the week prior.
00:38:01Still six and three.
00:38:02Now just a five and a half point road favorite in Chicago.
00:38:05It was closer to a touchdown earlier in the week.
00:38:07Joe, we know the interim bump.
00:38:09Will there be an interim OC bump for the Bears?
00:38:13No, there won't be.
00:38:16There's issues in this locker room, Ben, and there have been now for some times.
00:38:20There is a divide within that locker room.
00:38:23Multiple veterans would rather be not have seen Caleb Williams instead of Caleb Williams
00:38:30being benched instead of Waldron getting fired.
00:38:34Not good.
00:38:35Not good.
00:38:36Not good.
00:38:37A lot of reports that we'll talk about next.
00:38:39Live right here on the Early Line on Sports Grid.
00:38:42We preview the entirety of the Sunday slate on this Football Friday.
00:38:46He is Joe.
00:38:47I am Ben.
00:38:48All right.
00:38:49As we were saying right before the break, there's an interesting situation brewing in
00:38:54Chicago.
00:38:55Even after the dismissal of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, we don't really think it changes
00:39:00much for this franchise that does not seem to have a lot of belief, perhaps in their
00:39:04head coach, certainly not in the Eber Fluser, maybe not in their rookie quarterback or the
00:39:09number one overall pick.
00:39:10There's been some scuttlebutt, if you will, some speculation, some rumors that the locker
00:39:16room is unhappy with Caleb Williams, that they would rather see the backup Tyson Bajan,
00:39:21who had a little bit of success last year.
00:39:24But now there are reports that it's Tyson's father, the arm wrestling champion, Travis
00:39:30Bajan, that is spreading these false rumors.
00:39:33Regardless, Joe, if there's smoke, there is fire.
00:39:36It is not a good situation and it's a terrible scenario for a rookie quarterback in the number
00:39:42one overall selection, Caleb Williams.
00:39:45Here are the passing yards numbers, 190 and a half.
00:39:48Those are Justin Fields prices, man.
00:39:50That's not good because that was not a success story in the Windy City, regardless of the
00:39:55change.
00:39:56Now with Shane Waldron, I do believe Matt Eber Fluser is going to be fired at the end
00:40:01of this year.
00:40:02So that will be a third offensive play caller for Caleb Williams in less than two years
00:40:07in the NFL, more than likely with a second full new coaching staff as well.
00:40:14This is where things turn sour rapidly and that is the fear for Chicago.
00:40:21It has to be, and it's such a shame here, Ben, because this defense is a legit championship
00:40:28quality defense here.
00:40:30And I think the only reason at this point that Eber Fluser wasn't fired is because he
00:40:35is really the architect of what this defense has been able to do.
00:40:39So it's really the only good part.
00:40:41But they set this kid up, Caleb Williams, to fail from the start by bringing in Shane
00:40:47Waldron, who basically got run out of town in Detroit.
00:40:50So I do think that, you know, and amazing, Ben, you win this game and guess what?
00:40:55All of this is water under the bridge.
00:40:57That's how the NFL works.
00:40:59But I am with you.
00:41:00I think none of this is a new story in the NFL.
00:41:05Teams that are underperforming, egos in a locker room, coaching staff, no leadership.
00:41:11This is a story we have seen a million times over the years with organizations.
00:41:16And maybe if the McCaskey family had a little bit of a, you know, the chutzpah to fire Eber
00:41:21Fluser, then I would say the interim bump is at play.
00:41:25Give me the Bears covering against their northern nemesis.
00:41:29But that is Green Bay.
00:41:30The Packers have beaten the Bears 10 consecutive games, 15 of the last 16.
00:41:35It has not gotten any better even after Aaron Rodgers left the state of Wisconsin, and that
00:41:42is also at play.
00:41:43And it's not like the Packers are like, la-di-da, we won four straight.
00:41:46We don't want to hiccup.
00:41:48They looked awful against the Lions at home in Lambeau, heading into their bye, and Jordan
00:41:53Love has thrown an interception in every game he has played this year.
00:41:57So out of the bye, Green Bay is trying to get the Pack back on track.
00:42:02It's a recipe for disaster, in my opinion, for Chicago on Sunday, as much as that pains
00:42:07me to say.
00:42:09Joe, we can make this game rather quick.
00:42:11The Lions are a 13.5 point favorite at home on Sunday against Max Jones and Jacksonville.
00:42:17The Jags a 2-8 football team.
00:42:20It's a very large number by NFL standards, in fact, the largest spread this season.
00:42:26But the Lions are an elite, not just football team, but cover team.
00:42:30Is it possible, though, for the Lions to cover as a two-tug favorite at home?
00:42:35Well, it's a big number, Ben, for any NFL game, right?
00:42:41It's just, it's over the top.
00:42:43But we've already seen the Lions with 30 or more point wins against, what, the Cowboys
00:42:49and the Titans in the last couple of weeks?
00:42:51I mean, heck, they got a quarterback throwing five interceptions, and they're still winning
00:42:56games.
00:42:58Although I thought the defense, finally healthy, showed up last week against Minnesota and
00:43:04put on a show.
00:43:05But that was at home.
00:43:06Now you're going to get Jared Goff at home if he doesn't make the same mistakes.
00:43:12The team total for Detroit, to me, is the, is the, just bet it.
00:43:16Just bet it and keep betting it.
00:43:18That's it.
00:43:19Forget about Jacksonville.
00:43:2030 and a half is that number, Joe.
00:43:22It's the way that I would look as well.
00:43:24Oddly enough, the Jags are 5-1 against the spread as a dog this year, including three
00:43:30consecutive covers in each of their last two as at least a touchdown dog.
00:43:36Last week at home against the Vikings, and then with the help of Nick Sirianni and the
00:43:40officiating crew in Philadelphia the week prior.
00:43:44We'll show you this number right here, Minnesota and Tennessee.
00:43:48We'll talk to Mike Blewett about this game and the rest of the Sunday slate.
00:43:53Up next on this Football Friday, when Big Blue joins the show.
00:43:59Oh man, the Football Friday is off to a wild start here in this second half.
00:44:04Is that the way that we want to welcome on Mike Blewett?
00:44:07Let's have some respect when Big Blue joins us here on a Football Friday.
00:44:13As always, Blue, we appreciate the time.
00:44:15Thank you for being here on this Football Friday, a huge Week 11 to preview with you
00:44:21and also a quick look back and recap on Thursday night in Philadelphia.
00:44:26So the off-air banter sometimes matches or surpasses the on-air banter.
00:44:31We had a good session right there.
00:44:33Let's try to move the on-air banter in front of the jam that Jofrizo just dropped for us.
00:44:38So I would say last night was a really interesting, I was texting our own Kevin Walsh last night
00:44:45who's a big Eagles fan, saying this is such an odd game.
00:44:49Because Philly was in control of it, but they couldn't put it away.
00:44:53Missed kicks obviously are part of that, but they were stalling, right?
00:44:57They're stalling on these key third downs and having to put Elliott out there for more
00:45:03field goal attempts.
00:45:05Now they put it all away, kind of felt like a blowout for a minute there at the end, but
00:45:11then Washington is onside kicking it and everything else.
00:45:14It was just an odd game.
00:45:16What I would land the plane with is that I think we are seeing, and I was listening to
00:45:22Greg Cosell earlier this week talking about how Jaden Daniels has had an excellent rookie
00:45:28season, but we are seeing some rookie issues right now.
00:45:33He's not lighting up the league like he was for the first month of the season.
00:45:38And the Steelers and now the Eagles are finding ways to contain him and get after him within
00:45:43the pocket.
00:45:44Conversely, Saquon's an unbelievable addition to the Eagles, but is Jalen Hurts playing
00:45:52at championship caliber football right now?
00:45:54I don't think so.
00:45:55AJ Brown and Devontae Smith were barely involved in the game plan last night, and I think that's
00:46:00something that Eagles fans are going to be worried about.
00:46:02They can boo the missed kicks and Nick Sirianni all they want.
00:46:06The quarterback and the wide receivers have to get to a point where they are explosive
00:46:09as they have been in the past if they're going to surpass teams like the Niners and the Lions
00:46:14and the Packers in the playoffs.
00:46:15Yeah, absolutely.
00:46:16So the running back last night, Saquon Barkley-Blue, to your point, was the key.
00:46:21So as we take a look at the outlook after that crucial NFC East battle last night, Philadelphia
00:46:28now a game and a half lead for the top spot, minus 240 to win the divisional crown, entering
00:46:34Thursday night.
00:46:35Now on this Friday morning, minus 550.
00:46:38Two-part question for you, Blue, before we preview the rest of a huge Sunday slate, we're
00:46:44a lot of these significant games, like we saw last night on a Thursday, do lie ahead
00:46:49on the horizon.
00:46:51The Eagles are a hefty favorite in the NFC East.
00:46:54Do you think the division has already been wrapped up based on last night?
00:46:58If so, what is your postseason outlook for Philadelphia?
00:47:03Are you truly concerned about the Eagles not maybe living up to the billing of a true conference
00:47:07contender?
00:47:10I do think I have concern, to answer the second one first.
00:47:13I do think I have concern because we're seeing too much inconsistency.
00:47:18I think if they, if it all comes together for Philly, they're certainly talented enough
00:47:22to do it, right?
00:47:23They have lots of talent on both lines.
00:47:25They have, their biggest weakness on their team last year was their defensive backfield
00:47:29that added two new, two young players who, to the Eagles' credit, don't have to spend
00:47:35a lot of time on the field because they are controlling the ball well with Saquon and
00:47:41a strong running game.
00:47:42So it puts Cooper DeJohn and Quinion Mitchell in better positions so that they're not out
00:47:47there for 75 snaps a game.
00:47:49So I, but I do have concerns, like I said, versus some of the other teams there.
00:47:55In terms of the division, I think Philly is clearly the best team.
00:47:58I have tickets for them to win the East from the beginning of the season.
00:48:02I think Washington has issues clearly defensively, the loss of Jonathan Allen.
00:48:07The defensive backfield is the weakest part of their team.
00:48:11Cliff Kingsbury, unfortunately, has seen a lot of late season swoons in his career
00:48:17as a coordinator and as a head coach.
00:48:19I'd fear that that's going to be the case here again, but the commander's schedule upcoming,
00:48:26they'll have some wins out there.
00:48:27They still have the Saints.
00:48:29They have the Titans.
00:48:30They have the Cowboys.
00:48:31So we might be in a situation where a month from now after their bye week in another game,
00:48:36they're 11-4.
00:48:37It's, or excuse me, 10-4.
00:48:39It's entirely possible.
00:48:41I just think Philly is the better team right now.
00:48:43All right, Bloat, so the game that everyone is going to be interested in over the weekend
00:48:49is in Orchard Park with the Bills taking on the Chiefs.
00:48:54And a lot of people feel that the Chiefs are living on borrowed time here.
00:48:58All but two of their wins have been by one score.
00:49:02So they've gotten a ton of breaks, including last week here.
00:49:07Mahomes, as a dog in any spot, has always been a money bet here.
00:49:13Is it a money bet this week as they're getting two and a half?
00:49:17Yeah, a lot to this game, obviously, with the numbers.
00:49:20Mahomes 12-1 and 1 against the number, and 11-3 straight up as an underdog in his career,
00:49:26including the postseason.
00:49:27They're 9-0, but only 5-4 against the number, had not covered any of their last three games.
00:49:33They played each other seven times in the last four years, Kansas City's 4-3 against
00:49:39the spread and straight up, and it's 4-3 to the over.
00:49:43So these games are not quite that easy to bet, right?
00:49:46They're coming on both sides of the number.
00:49:48The Bills are 5-5 against the number, but have covered four of their last five.
00:49:52That 3-0 back to 3-2, what's wrong with the Bills?
00:49:57They've been on fire since, right, and scoring a lot of points in doing so.
00:50:01I think that the Bills' slow starts, Joe, we've seen this pretty consistently when we've
00:50:07been on air on In Game Live, has been something we've talked about every week.
00:50:12Their first quarters have been bad.
00:50:15They are still, I believe, at a negative point differential in the first quarter of games.
00:50:19So I could see this being a low-scoring first half, the teams checking each other in that
00:50:26first quarter, and we have a low-scoring game, and the defense checking each other.
00:50:32It's going to be a really fascinating second half.
00:50:34I think it's when it's all going to be decided.
00:50:36I have to lean with Mahomes getting the points, but this would not surprise me based on the
00:50:42emotional way in which they've been winning these close games that the Chiefs finally
00:50:47have a letdown.
00:50:48If they win this game, you have to start thinking that undefeated season is a reality because
00:50:54this would be a really unbelievable game to pull off on the road against this Bills team
00:50:59that's on fire right now.
00:51:01Yeah, absolutely so.
00:51:02The Chiefs, of course, undefeated, perfect 9-0, an underdog just once this year.
00:51:08It was the Super Bowl 58 rematch, also on the road in Santa Clara.
00:51:13They beat the Niners by double digits.
00:51:15The Chiefs now an underdog here since the start of last year, a perfect 5-0 outright
00:51:21as an underdog.
00:51:23Buffalo in this five-game win streak has covered, though, in four of five.
00:51:27But let's talk to quarterbacks because both quarterbacks, of course, are trying to lead
00:51:31their team to the postseason promised land.
00:51:34Patrick Mahomes has all of the pedigree.
00:51:36Josh Allen has very little of it and, in fact, has faltered in the most significant of stages.
00:51:42This is not so much a playoff question, but rather an MVP question.
00:51:47Both have been booked at times this year as the MVP favorite, but despite some of the
00:51:51numbers not being overly impressive, what can we expect out of the quarterbacks in Orchard
00:51:57Park on Sunday?
00:51:58You know, that 42-36 classic in the playoffs, the 13 seconds left and Mahomes gets the win
00:52:06in overtime, Josh Allen played the game of his life.
00:52:11I know you said he faltered, but it wasn't really his fault.
00:52:15A little bit of coaching issues there and defensive issues.
00:52:19I think Allen is the more likely one to put up the bigger numbers, not just this weekend,
00:52:23but for the rest of the season.
00:52:24You've heard me say it before, I think Mahomes' presence still distracts people to some extent
00:52:30on how good this defense is.
00:52:33I really am wavering a lot on this game.
00:52:35I have to take Mahomes plus the points, but I think the Kansas City defense might meet
00:52:42their match this weekend in Josh Allen.
00:52:44I expect big numbers out of him.
00:52:47Yeah, it's going to be a really interesting game, of course, and incredibly significant.
00:52:51The Bills are downplaying its importance, which is probably the right way of doing things
00:52:58as Buffalo has been bounced from the postseason three of the last four years by Kansas City.
00:53:04Their focus, that AFC title price at 4-1 and cashing that ticket, finally keeping the Chiefs
00:53:12from doing so.
00:53:13Plenty more from the Sunday slate with Mike Blewett on this Football Friday Next.
00:53:18Live right here on The Early Line, a Football Friday continues with Mike Blewett in this
00:53:23second hour.
00:53:25Brew, Thursday night in the Divisional Duel for the top spot in the NFC East really sets
00:53:30the stage for the rest of Week 11, the impactful games we are breaking down, and of course
00:53:36that includes Sunday for your favorite team, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:53:40The Steelers enter Sunday at home, hosting the Baltimore Ravens with that slight half
00:53:45game advantage atop the AFC North, but unlike last night elsewhere in the Commonwealth,
00:53:51in Philadelphia, the home team is not favored, and the home team is not the favorite to win
00:53:57the division.
00:53:58It is still Baltimore, despite a slightly worse record at this moment.
00:54:03Three, that is the very flat and key number in favor of Baltimore.
00:54:07A total of 48-and-a-half for a Steelers-Ravens game.
00:54:12What's going on, Blew?
00:54:13How do you see Sunday in the Steel City playing out?
00:54:18It's a pretty amazing dynamic, right, because I feel like a lot of people are saying, oh,
00:54:22Baltimore's just a better team, and you know, Steelers are having a great season, but we'll
00:54:26see what happens when they meet, and then the Steelers are a home dog, Tomlin's a home
00:54:31dog, and Joe and I have talked about this so many times.
00:54:34The Steelers are money in these circumstances, even if they are going up against better teams.
00:54:41The Steelers have won seven of the last eight straight up, and against the number, all of
00:54:45them decided by one score amongst these two teams, all of them decided by one score in
00:54:50the last eight games, seven in a row in this game to the under, the Steelers-Ravens games,
00:54:56and the underdog has covered nine of the last 10.
00:55:00Now Lamar is only one in three against the Steelers in his career.
00:55:04There's been some late-season injury and late-season replacements, and Steelers beat
00:55:08the Ravens twice last year, but Snoop Huntley started the final game as Lamar was resting
00:55:14for the playoffs.
00:55:18The encouraging thing for the Steelers is that last week they won a game 28-27, right?
00:55:24The numbers, the scoring started to explode.
00:55:27Joe was right on that game to be an over against the Commanders, and the Steelers hung with
00:55:32them.
00:55:34I'm not saying they want to go blow-for-blow against Lamar Jackson, but there is a world
00:55:38in which they can win a game in the 20s, so that'll be pretty fascinating if they can
00:55:42pull that off.
00:55:43I have to take the Steelers with the points at home, and that's just kind of where I'm
00:55:48going to lie.
00:55:49The Steelers and Tomlin, as underdogs, have been really good in this spot, even if you
00:55:53think the Ravens are the better side.
00:55:56Last 12 games as a home underdog since 2021, they've won eight outright.
00:56:03If it ain't broke, don't fix it here.
00:56:06The question is, are we looking at the winner being, I don't know, not only the AFC North
00:56:12champion, but should we be considering Pittsburgh in the long run here?
00:56:16Look at that, 15-1 right now for the AFC title, and at some point we've got to come to the
00:56:22realization, this is a real dangerous team come January, no?
00:56:27Yeah, it's kind of funny to me because they really have not, they haven't had a prove-it
00:56:34game yet.
00:56:35Last week was one of the first ones where they could prove it, they just beat up on
00:56:39a lot of bad teams, and now the schedule gets very difficult, right?
00:56:44We were just talking off-air how they have the Chiefs on Christmas, they have all six
00:56:48divisional games, and they have Philly.
00:56:50Now the Browns aren't as good as they were, what are the Bengals going to look like?
00:56:54They're obviously very good offensively, but the Steelers have a lot of tough games coming
00:56:57up, so I don't think anybody will be on board with the Steelers unless they really rip off
00:57:03some huge wins.
00:57:05The Steelers could go 4-4 the rest of the way, and they're an 11-win football team,
00:57:11right?
00:57:12But people will be doubting, well, they've closed pretty weak on the season.
00:57:18I just don't think you're going to really want to play this defense in December and
00:57:21January and hopefully into February as a Steelers fan, and think you're going to get away with
00:57:26a lot.
00:57:27Jadon Daniels had a real come-up last week, and they handed the Commanders a touchdown
00:57:32because of maybe an ill-advised fake punt attempt.
00:57:35So again, another fascinating game.
00:57:39You said Bill's Chiefs is the marquee game, and this is a 1A, 1B situation for me, and
00:57:46I do not think, Joe, to answer your question, I don't think this one decides the division.
00:57:50Too many games to go.
00:57:51If the Steelers won, I think there's way too many tough games in front of them, and Baltimore
00:57:56would have to say the same.
00:57:58Baltimore is the worst pass defense in the NFL.
00:58:01Teams do not win the Super Bowl with that kind of situation.
00:58:05They are the best rushing defense in the NFL, but they allow a lot of points, more than
00:58:0925 per game.
00:58:11Steelers second best scoring defense in the National Football League, best scoring defense
00:58:16That's the L.A. Chargers, a team that also gives up a lot of points.
00:58:20That's the Cincinnati Bengals at more than 26 per game.
00:58:23They face off on Sunday night in SoFi in the Bolts, just a slight point-and-a-half favorite
00:58:29at home.
00:58:30But when you look at this game, the Bengals can ill-afford a loss, being two games below
00:58:36.500 at 4-6.
00:58:38So tell us, will the Bengals lose on Sunday night?
00:58:43I think this is another, this is obviously a really interesting game.
00:58:47For some of the same reasons we were talking about, people doubting the Steelers, guys,
00:58:52I feel like that's happening with the Chargers, too.
00:58:55It's not sexy all the time with them.
00:58:58They have a very specific way, Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh trying to run the ball, control
00:59:02clock.
00:59:03But Justin Herbert is the QB, and as they start to develop guys like Quentin Johnston
00:59:08and other options like Ladd McConkie, this offense could get more dangerous as we get
00:59:14further into the season.
00:59:16The defense is playing, frankly, better than I expected, and I just feel like they're a
00:59:21team that's being doubted.
00:59:23But all that being said, Cincinnati's offense is a lot to deal with.
00:59:30They are a better team than their record indicates.
00:59:33They do have defensive issues, but in this instance, I'll take the points.
00:59:38I do like Cincinnati to win this football game.
00:59:42And that is a huge, huge game, Blue.
00:59:45Huge game on Sunday.
00:59:46Quickly here, we're going to fly around a lot of the rest of the Sunday slate on the
00:59:50other side of the break, but let me get you one with a couple of teams that might have
00:59:54a sliver of hope of being an outside wildcard contender.
00:59:59The Colts go back to Anthony Richardson as they head to MetLife on Sunday to take on
01:00:04Aaron Rodgers in the 3-7 Jets.
01:00:06The Jets, once again, three-and-a-half-point favorite, expected to win a game they must
01:00:11have.
01:00:12What do you think, Blue?
01:00:13I think if the Jets lose this game, we can just call it.
01:00:17Just call it all now.
01:00:19Just walk home.
01:00:21Just call it.
01:00:22Just get on your flights.
01:00:23Let me just call it now, Blue.
01:00:25Call it now.
01:00:26Don't even wait for the outcome.
01:00:28Just call it.
01:00:29It's over.
01:00:30I do not want anything to do with this game, Ben.
01:00:34The Colts, outright, Anthony Richardson returns, more from Sunday Night.
01:00:39Live right here on The Early Line, we fly around the rest of the Sunday slate of our
01:00:4312 games on Week 11 Sunday.
01:00:46We have already previewed eight, the final four with Mike Blewitt to wrap up this second
01:00:50hour on a football Friday.
01:00:52Blue, in Tennessee, it's the Titans and the Vikings.
01:00:56Now the Titans are not a great football team, only two wins this year, but a five-and-a-half-point
01:01:01underdog against the Minnesota Vikings, who are off to a five-and-oh start.
01:01:06Dropped two in a row, now one-two straight, but Sam Dornold may be some slight regression
01:01:12after three INTs and a narrow escape for a victory last week in Jacksonville.
01:01:18How do you break down this matchup on Sunday in Nashville?
01:01:22There have been some bad football games this year, really bad NFL football games.
01:01:27And Joe and I had the pleasure of watching that Vikings-Jaguars game together, and I
01:01:31gotta be honest, I think that's the victor right now.
01:01:34That was one horrendous football game, and the Vikings played a big role in it.
01:01:39You can't just blame Mack Jones and the Jaguars' offense.
01:01:42The Vikings are turning the ball over, too, kicking field goals, not getting any scoring
01:01:47opportunities when Justin Jefferson is on the team.
01:01:51The one thing that the Vikings have been really good at is forcing the ball to Justin Jefferson
01:01:57early and generally getting points in the first half.
01:02:02It has slowed the last few weeks, but I can tell you their approach right out of the gate
01:02:08is aggressive.
01:02:09It's not hand the ball to Aaron Jones a few times, get the running game going.
01:02:14It's Sam Darnold firing to Justin Jefferson early, trying to get the pass game going.
01:02:19The Titans' defense has been a really stout defense.
01:02:22It's unusual for a team to be this bad when their defense has played as well as they have
01:02:26statistically, at least.
01:02:29I don't love laying five and a half on the road, obviously.
01:02:32I'd look for live betting opportunities if the Titans get the first score.
01:02:35We have seen this before with them, and then bet the Vikings at a shorter number.
01:02:40But for now, I'd like the Vikings in a first-half number or Vikings team total over in the first
01:02:46half.
01:02:47Doc, yeah, no, Tennessee all day long there, Blood.
01:02:51I think we're gonna laugh and be like, where's that been, Will Levis?
01:02:54Where's that been?
01:02:56Sam Darnold turns into a pumpkin.
01:02:57I don't know what the hell to do here in South Beach, Blewitt, with this game in Miami.
01:03:02I don't even know what they are, quite honestly.
01:03:05The Raiders getting a touchdown here, not exactly like I'd run to the window and lay
01:03:10it here with Miami.
01:03:12Are you feeling any better about this, Miami team?
01:03:15Because it still feels like an under to me.
01:03:18I think that's fair.
01:03:20I do feel better about Miami.
01:03:22I think they're at least, they have some semblance of an offense, even if Tyreek's
01:03:27not involved in the way that you need him to.
01:03:30But this Raiders team has gone through it, right?
01:03:34They're switching quarterbacks multiple times.
01:03:36They've fired half the staff.
01:03:38It's a team in disarray.
01:03:40Seven is too many to lay against.
01:03:42I have betting opportunity.
01:03:43I would not bet on the Raiders in this spot at all.
01:03:46So I think I'm looking for Miami at a shorter number, and I think Miami is an interesting
01:03:49teaser possibility where they can win the game, and you get them at a really short number.
01:03:55Five consecutive losses for Las Vegas.
01:03:58Seven in total this year.
01:03:59Only two covers in any of those seven losses.
01:04:02Over in four or five, though, for the Raiders.
01:04:05Big game for the Rams if they are going to have any hope of being a playoff team against
01:04:10the Patriots team that now has won multiple games.
01:04:15What is happening?
01:04:16Will the Rams bounce back on Sunday in Foxborough as a 4.5 point road favorite against the Pats?
01:04:23I think they could.
01:04:24One thing you should note about these two teams, they do not get off to good first half
01:04:29starts.
01:04:30They are two of the lowest scoring first half teams.
01:04:31They average 15.3 points per game in the first half, and this first half total is 21.5.
01:04:39Now the Patriots put up 13 in the first half last week, an offensive explosion against
01:04:45the Bears.
01:04:47I do like the Rams, you know, 4.5.
01:04:50I think you have to hold your nose and take the points here.
01:04:55It does not feel to me, and some people are positioning it this way, that Drake May has
01:05:00been transformative for this Patriots offense.
01:05:03I don't really see it that way.
01:05:04I think they played some other really bad football teams.
01:05:07So I think the Rams are better than them.
01:05:104.5, you hold your nose and take it.
01:05:13My bet here is the first half under.
01:05:16Darren Rizzi, the interim bump snapped the seven game skid for the Saints last week.
01:05:22Lewitt, somebody literally has to win this game between the Browns and the Saints, and
01:05:26it's a pick-em on the Moneyline.
01:05:29So who wins?
01:05:33Let's go Browns-Moneyline.
01:05:36I could give you bad reasons to pick both teams, and I won't do that.
01:05:40I won't disgrace this show, nor the audience with me making things up.
01:05:44I'm guessing that the Browns are going to win, because I think they're better defensively.
01:05:49You're an honest man.
01:05:50Don't understand how that total is 44.5, but we'll talk about that in about half an hour.
01:05:55Mike Lewitt, enjoy the weekend, see you Sunday on the Grid, hour number three up next.