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00:00necessarily for Dallas despite holding on for a 20 to 15 win on a Thursday
00:06night in MetLife. As we shared, Micah Parsons had to exit the game early in
00:11the fourth quarter as John Machoda, if I'm pronouncing his last name correctly,
00:16I hope I did, reported as he covers the Cowboys for the Athletic in the
00:20locker room. Micah Parsons was limping around. Parsons told reporters the
00:25initial x-rays were negative. That's a good first step. We will see what the
00:29prognosis is moving forward, but Parsons did tell Dak, quote, I'll be good.
00:35Demarcus Lawrence, also up there on the defensive line, said he's in pain with
00:39his foot injury, but he is going to be fine. You want to win on Thursday night
00:44football and you want to get out healthy. So-so for the Cowboys last night. Yeah,
00:50listen, you got the most important part, the win out of the way once again and
00:55now I don't know anybody that has dominated a team like Dak has dominated
01:00the Giants in his career because I believe this is now 11 straight wins
01:05with Dak Prescott against this Giants. I mean his record is ridiculous since 2016
01:11against them, especially with Danny Dimes. So another win for Dallas, but the good
01:17news is you get a little extra rest and thank goodness it doesn't sound too
01:21crazy because bumps and bruisers at week four are gonna happen here, Ben. It
01:27is his 13th consecutive win against the Giants. He dropped his first two games
01:32did Dak in his career way back in 2016 NFL season against the G-Men has not
01:38lost since. The Giants in their 19th consecutive game as an underdog last
01:43night again did cover their 10, 8, and 1 against the number as an underdog in
01:48that span. Now two and two ATS on the closing number as an underdog this
01:54season. Dogs of five and a half points or greater once again know it for the
01:58Sunday slate on the horizon 15 and 2 ATS. Of course we will highlight any of the
02:06games on Sunday through the remainder of this NFL week four slate that feature an
02:11underdog of five and a half points or greater. But Joe you're right some
02:15injuries that crept up for Dallas defensively after a really good night
02:19stuffing the rod which had been their main issue plaguing that side the first
02:23few weeks. For Dallas though a victory back to two and two quells some of the
02:30drama around that franchise because one thing Dallas has always been it's good
02:36in the regular season we can talk their postseason outlook at a later date but
02:40the Cowboys had won two of the last three NFC East divisional crowns and at
02:45least 12 regular season games each of the past three seasons. Joe before
02:49Thursday night football win total was nine and a half the under had the juice
02:54nine and a half remains that win total but now you can see Dallas favored to
02:58get back into the postseason that was actually a plus money price before TNF.
03:03Yeah and it's interesting too Ben I got to find the number it's been a hot
03:07minute since we've had back-to-back NFC East champions have we not? It usually
03:13doesn't happen so 2004 there you go so it's boy oh boy the Cowboys are gonna
03:20have some work to do here this year and rather quickly if they're gonna buck
03:24that trend but it's it's a real trend here in the NFC East it's usually
03:29somebody else year after year but Cowboys certainly I think are good
03:35enough in that division to be able to win it again. At some point that
03:39divisional streak is going to have to come to a close the Cowboys have the
03:44second best price at plus 240 Philly a minus 170 odds on favorite with a two
03:50and one record through three weeks since 2004 Joe now nearly two decades of NFL
03:56action the Eagles had won four straight from 2001 to 2004 they are the last
04:01repeat divisional champ in the NFC East. Let's stick on Dallas for just one more
04:06moment did anything you see last night whether it was offensively the Cowboys
04:10on the defensive side of the football in their fourth game under Mike Zimmer make
04:15you a little bit more hopeful and optimistic on your season approach for
04:19the boys? You have to I mean they what they did against the run was impressive
04:24there was no reason why Singletary couldn't have gashed them if they were
04:28truly that bad that looked a lot more like the Minnesota Viking defenses of
04:33the Mike Zimmer era very bend don't break and they're just not letting you
04:38in the end zone you can kick field goals against them all day long you're not
04:42scoring and I thought they did a great job on a short week of shoring a lot of
04:47that up. The Giants by the way preseason win total six and a half the under had
04:52the juice it's now five and a half the over has the juice we didn't expect a
04:56ton from New York this year but they have been competitive in football games
05:02they are two and two against the spread more than likely an underdog many more
05:06times this season let's get you ready for the Sunday slate around the National
05:11Football League and week number four a slightly reduced slate once again as we
05:16will have another doubleheader to end out week four on this NFL calendar but
05:22still 13 games on Sunday let's go to the final one on Sunday that's Sunday night
05:27football in the Charm City it's the Ravens and the Bills Baltimore avoiding
05:33what would have been a dreadful start with what would have been oh and three
05:37winless in Dallas last week but they did pick up their first victory of the year
05:42one and two Buffalo one of five remaining undefeated teams entering week
05:47number four at three and oh in the Ravens a two and a half point home
05:52favorite total 46 and a half Joe we react always to results of each and
05:59every week in the National Football League especially the marquee matchup so
06:03what do you think the reaction is going to be Monday morning after Sunday night
06:07I think the reaction is going to be Buffalo is for real and the Ravens have
06:15many many issues that they have to deal with here I mean I think this is a
06:21fantastic battle at this point in the season because it is the first real big
06:26road test for the Buffalo Bills they're sitting at three and Oh Josh Allen could
06:32not be playing any better so what is the excuse for you taking on a one and three
06:37Baltimore team who has a million questions about their offensive line
06:41you're not Derek Henry's not going to run over the Buffalo Bills defense here
06:46that means Lamar it's going to be all Lamar shoulders and I think that's a big
06:51ask with how this Buffalo team is playing together right now would not
06:55shock me at all if we wake up the Ravens are now what one and three and
06:59Buffalo would be four and oh on the season when you look at the defenses
07:05here Joe there is a drastic difference at least a storm Buffalo seventh best in
07:10the NFL only allowing 16 points per game Baltimore has allowed 26 all right
07:17garbage points against the Cowboys last week that's how they got to 25 the
07:21Raiders won outright as an eight and a half point underdog in Baltimore the
07:25last time the flop was there they scored 26 the Chiefs put up 27 on opening night
07:32of course there is a new OC in Baltimore as it's Alex or and Mike McDonald is the
07:39new head coach in Seattle has there been some of a learning curve for the Ravens
07:45potentially the Ravens also Joe and here's where I think it's a little bit
07:48overblown based on the numbers are the worst passing defense in the NFL after
07:53three weeks but you would expect the MVP co-favorite and one of the front runners
07:58right now in Josh Allen to have a really good night on Sunday two thirty three at
08:03a half is his current passing yards prop one and a half passing touchdowns he had
08:07four past TDs last week against Jacksonville and as you said Lamar
08:12Jackson has done everything but last week it was a large dose of the ground
08:17game Derrick Henry over a buck 50 Lamar had over 80 the team ran for 274
08:23against Dallas you can still know that running the football is a huge key
08:28ingredient ingredient excuse me of offensive success for the Ravens yeah
08:33and I think you you brought up a great point the Ravens are and we're gonna see
08:39it again on full display they miss their former DC Mike McDonald now in
08:44Seattle as the head coach because this secondary of the Ravens is getting
08:49exposed and they haven't really taken on a team like the Buffalo Bills with a
08:53quarterback and a wide receiving and tight ends that can really exploit how
08:59bad they are 24th in pass defense so far this year 23rd in coverage this is a
09:06Bills team that will absolutely be able to find the holes on that secondary and
09:11oh yeah by the way Baltimore's defense can't get to the quarterback they're not
09:16exactly sacking guys left and right and has anybody noticed how von Miller is
09:21playing this year then a difference maker here and I think Lamar is gonna be
09:27under a lot of duress in that game which makes it very difficult for you to look
09:33at Baltimore with that offensive line and go yeah they'll they'll be able to
09:37expose this defense of Buffalo don't know Baltimore has been a yeah we'll see
09:41Baltimore has been a favorite each of the past two weeks of course they lost
09:45outright as the largest favorite of week number two against the Raiders a slight
09:50road favorite in Dallas last week because of the impetus and the
09:54importance are not starting oh and three they got that win and a cover Joe since
10:01the start of last year the Ravens have or even last year the Ravens were a
10:05favorite in 17 of 18 games they were 11 and 7 or excuse me a 10 and 7 against
10:13the spread but with Lamar Jackson who became the full-time starting
10:16quarterback for the flop in 2019 since that point as a home favorite Baltimore
10:22just 16 and 23 against the number since we have seen Buffalo be on the rise in
10:27the AFC East for consecutive divisional crown since the start of the 2020 NFL
10:33campaign the Bills have only been an underdog 14 total times in the last four
10:39now five years and I include this season because they were a dog week to
10:43Thursday night football in Miami of course comfortably won that football
10:47game outright and it was even before the injury to to a tongue of Iloa that the
10:51Bills were well in command of that game in South Florida Buffalo is 8 and 6
10:57against the spread as an underdog in that span since the start of 2020 and I
11:03think Joe if they went out right again as an underdog those numbers that you
11:07saw right there especially to win the AFC as the Bills have that second best
11:12number and the Ravens entered the year with the second best price and now the
11:15fourth best number those numbers are going to move drastically come Monday
11:20morning oh without a doubt and listen this is the first big test for Buffalo
11:27here but am I alone been thinking when I've seen you've watched both of these
11:32teams not granted you don't make any wholesale changes here after September
11:36it's it's just the right none of this is good may look the same here come at the
11:40end of October but I'm with you here this looks feels and smells different
11:46with Buffalo and the same thing with Baltimore who was a preseason darling
11:50that it doesn't feel the same with Harbaugh and Baltimore this year does it
11:54it feels a little bit different right in the expectations for the block is a
11:59Super Bowl it is an AFC championship it is improving Lamar Jackson's two and
12:04four playoff record same story though for Buffalo hey great you can get to the
12:09divisional round win a conference championship and play for a Lombardi
12:13trophy Buffalo over in two of three games Joe the Ravens and the Cowboys the
12:18only two teams at the end of week three over in all three games something to
12:23keep in mind for that forty six and a half on Sunday night football more
12:27about the Sunday plate next a playoff rematch on Sunday in Tampa between the
12:32Buccaneers and the Birds that's the Philadelphia Eagles Philly as they were
12:37in the postseason in the wild-card round a year ago a road favorite in Tampa
12:42against Baker and the Bucs I wonder if Philadelphia would be a road favorite
12:47Joe had the Buccaneers not lost outright as a five and a half point home favorite
12:52last week against the Denver Broncos that I guess we will never know and last
12:58year when these two teams met all met in the postseason it was the Eagles on a
13:03slide they dropped five of their final six and lost that playoff game to Tampa
13:09the Buccaneers used the wind to get into the divisional round it's part of
13:12the optimism for the Bucs entering this season both teams two and one virtually
13:17a pick them on Sunday who do you like to emerge three and one well yeah and a lot
13:23of injuries right injury concerns with both of these teams already I can tell
13:29you right now I mean AJ Brown means a lot to the offense of the Philadelphia
13:34Eagles you know you we saw Devonta Smith get hurt in that New Orleans game
13:39they're both have been listed as questionable still Lane Johnson was in
13:44the concussion protocol also a big spot here for Philadelphia and the Bucs we
13:50saw what happened with them they didn't have Vita VEA they didn't have can't
13:53see don't have Winfield jr. that whole defensive side of the ball got kind of
13:58exposed last week didn't they I would say if good news comes by by tomorrow or
14:06before kickoff on Sunday that a lot of these guys are playing I I think it's a
14:10fascinating matchup here but it's also one that I think leads me to an under
14:15then I don't know how in the world I were expecting this to be a shootout I
14:20do think if the defensive players are back for Tampa that I think in Tampa I
14:26think this is gonna be tough sledding I think it's a dead under at the 43 and a
14:30half number so the Buccaneers have been an incredible underdog with Baker
14:35Mayfield this not necessarily covering a three and a half four and a half point
14:39spread but they did win outright as nearly a touchdown underdog in Detroit
14:44week number two they are ten and four against the spread as an underdog since
14:50the beginning of last year all right it's a virtual pick them seven of those
14:54ten covers in outright victory now in terms of that total Joe Philadelphia
14:59has only won over this year it was on the slippery turf of Sao Paulo both
15:04games back stateside for the birds have been pretty well under their number the
15:09game on Monday against the Atlanta Falcons to end out week number two got
15:15close because of the Falcons storming back at the end but still stayed under
15:21so if you're looking at domestic totals for the birds they've had a pretty good
15:25under margin to begin and now Joe we compare these two teams and see what
15:30they do for the remainder of this season last year until the final few weeks of
15:36the regular season I would have told you the Eagles are in prime position once
15:39again to play for an NFC championship in the game in Tampa kind of encapsulated
15:44all of the defensive issues that Philadelphia had the reason for the
15:49coordinator changes the reason for the hope and optimism this year the birds
15:53are a favorite to win the NFC East Philly has the second best price to win
15:57the NFC behind a struggling San Francisco team but the Buccaneers Joe
16:03after two weeks were one of the two most impressive teams in the NFL alongside
16:08their divisional mate in the New Orleans Saints how do you view both of these
16:11teams entering week four Sunday slate well I think the Bucks are very much
16:17in their division right the Eagles are gonna have some work to do and it I just
16:23checked Ben it it does look like Devonta Smith and AJ Brown are not gonna be
16:29available in here and if Lane Johnson doesn't pass that that protocol then
16:34this is a team I think when whole is very much alive to win the the NFC East
16:40right but we've already seen without AJ Brown that offense looks totally
16:45different and if they can stay healthy with Saquon Barkley running the ball
16:51they can run I just don't know they're gonna win a lot of shootouts and I think
16:55this is a matchup they can win if they keep it low scoring 23 to 1 Joe the
17:01price on the Buccaneers to win the NFC how about that plus 280 number for the
17:06three-time divisional champs in the NFC South back to back to back how do you
17:11feel about the NFC South after week three with the Saints taking an L the
17:16Falcons taking another loss and same for the Buccaneers I think it's one of those
17:22divisions Ben where after a month no team is as good as they may have looked
17:26already and no team is as bad as they may have looked already I think there a
17:30lot to be decided in that division the Atlanta Falcons were the odds-on
17:35favorites entering the year now it's New Orleans at plus 145 20 cents in front of
17:41the birds at plus 165 and of course you saw the price on the Buccaneers a
17:46couple of divisional duels on Sunday when our two is up next welcome to our
17:51number two of a football Friday live right here on the early line on sports
17:56grid he is Joe Ranieri I am Ben Stevens two more hours to go up until 11 a.m.
18:02Eastern it is a full-blown football Friday we continue our game-by-game
18:07preview of the entirety of the NFL week for Sunday slate week for already
18:12underway last night the Cowboys hold on 20 to 15 and met life against the New
18:18York Giants we preview every game for week 4 and that Sunday slate will give
18:24you a pick 6 our best bets in our third and final hour a huge college football
18:29weekend it's week number 5 for rank vs. rank matchups on a Saturday to really
18:36good games a doubleheader on this Friday and of course Joe in our third
18:40and final hour as well we'll make sure you are ready and know everything on the
18:45line this weekend for the final weekend of the MLB regular season yeah it's it's
18:51getting to be good it's kind of put up a shut up time in both college and the
18:56NFL too isn't it as divisional as well as conference games are about to take
19:02place here this week we're gonna learn a little something about a lot of teams
19:05really quickly here by Monday yes we certainly are alright let's continue our
19:11deep dive and preview of the entirety of the week for Sunday slate and Joe one of
19:17my favorite games especially in the early window in Lambeau Field on Sunday
19:22afternoon the Packers and the Vikings Green Bay undefeated with Malik Willis
19:29under center they are 2 and 1 Minnesota enters week for one of the five
19:33remaining unbeatens around the National Football League Sam Darnold and the
19:38Vikes a perfect three and oh the Packers a three-point home favorite total now at
19:4443 and a half I want to ask you the question from this perspective first and
19:49foremost Jordan Love back at practice for a second straight week was an active
19:54last week in Nashville limited in practice his status still a little bit
19:58up in the air do you think Green Bay being a full field goal favorite at home
20:04against Minnesota is an indication Joe that Jordan Love plays in starts for the
20:09pack on Sunday it's interesting is it are we in one of these spots here
20:16because things could not have gone better for Minnesota so far right so is
20:20this a sell spot here for Minnesota now heading to Green Bay we've already seen
20:27that Green Bay Malik Willis Jordan Love they're still playing defense at a very
20:33high level here very high and boy you can you tell that Jeff Affley is now the
20:38defensive coordinator of Green Bay here because this doesn't look like the same
20:43old same old Green Bay Packers defense that forces guys like Jordan Love to
20:48have to drop 35 points a game in order to win they don't feel like that right
20:53now both these defenses have been playing at a very very high level here
20:58this is a tough spot but I am always going to side if Laura if love plays
21:03here and it looks like he's going to I'm always gonna side with Green Bay in
21:07Green Bay under a field goal then I don't know how you don't yeah I would
21:11agree with you Joe I wonder what this line would look like if we get official
21:16confirmation that Jordan Love is going to play is it three and a half is it
21:21four does it get to four and a half that I'm not entirely sure let's say
21:25it's Malik Willis does it drop to two point and a half could the Packers be a
21:29home underdog the reason I asked Joe is because the first two games with Malik
21:34Willis the Packers have won outright as a dog even at home against Indianapolis
21:40in week two and last week on the road in Nashville against the Titans this in
21:45fact if the line holds with Green Bay as the favorite side would be the first
21:50time the Packers are as a favorite so far this season so what about Minnesota
21:54they're not only three you know Joe one of the five remaining unbeaten straight
21:58up they're one of the two remaining unbeatens at the end of week three that
22:01is perfect against the number three and Oh ATS alongside the Steelers who we'll
22:06talk about in just a moment in the last two wins for Minnesota both against the
22:12spread and straight up as a home underdog against the 49ers in the Texans
22:17looking like the four better side in both games yeah it's it's unique here
22:24right and I think the the whole Sam Darnold situation bend is what people
22:30are having a hard time wrapping their head around because we know Sam darling
22:34it's not a really it's not a second year third year he's been one of the best
22:38stories to start the season under Kevin O'Connell's offense here and I've always
22:43said it been a big believer that coaching matters in the NFL and Sam
22:48Donald is proof of that but what happens when you have a defense and Sam Donald's
22:54on the road in the elements that we've seen Sam Donald explode under pressure
22:59before I'm wondering if this defense of Green Bay can at least start exposing
23:05some of the warts that we know are already there for him so I would say the
23:10three points is actually baked in with Jordan love if we've missed some
23:14official confirmation my apology props are out 240 and a half for Jordan love
23:20for Sunday that's interesting that the odds makers on fan to feel pretty
23:25certain Jordan love is going to play in this game I would say it's trending
23:29toward that way as well just surprised to know there's already a passing yards
23:34prop out for Sammy D 227 and a half Darnold leads the National Football
23:39League after three weeks with eight passing touchdowns his passing
23:43touchdowns prop one and a half the over has some plus money all right let's get
23:48to another divisional duel on Sunday that may be entering week three look
23:53like it would be a time to really learn about the LA Chargers now it seems as
23:59though they will be climbing uphill it's the Chargers and the Chiefs inside so
24:03on Sunday afternoon in that late afternoon window for 25 p.m. Eastern
24:09time full touchdown spread in favor of KC the Chiefs undefeated through three
24:14weeks yeah that makes a little bit of sense and two and one against the spread
24:20of course favored in all three games the reason Joe the line is at a touchdown
24:24the ankle injury to Justin Herbert optimistic he plays nothing confirmed as
24:30of this moment but it's not even just Justin Herbert it's the guys protecting
24:35the quarterback who's a little bit hobbled and probably less than a hundred
24:38percent we do not expect to see Joe alt the rookie right tackle we do not expect
24:43to see Rashawn Slater the young left tackle for LA as well not a great sign
24:49when your quarterbacks not a hundred percent and his mobility might be in
24:53question and your two bookends of your offensive line against the solid Chiefs
24:57defense to start this year are also injured yeah no I mean not a good
25:03situation in any way shape or form Ben but you know these are the kinds of
25:08spots right that we we often see crazy things happening and again divisional
25:13matchups here where teams know each other very very well I mean this isn't
25:18our boss first rodeo I I don't think the plan changes we know what the Chargers
25:23are gonna have to do if they're gonna beat the Chiefs they've got to hold on
25:27to the ball they've got to be able to run the ball and they've got to have
25:31success in the red zone here if they can do that they've got a shot of covering
25:37at least to stay within the touchdown band and that's really if you're
25:41thinking about the Chargers that's what you're expecting here so is Taylor
25:46Heinecke is do you have enough confidence in him to be able to hand off
25:51left hand off right I think Harbaugh is the right coach to put a banged up team
25:56like this to give or at least take the seven seven and a half points listen the
26:01Chargers were the dog last week in Pittsburgh did not win did not cover
26:05they were held to not many rushing yards JK Dobbins who had a buck 30 in his
26:10first two games only 44 last week against Pittsburgh Casey will look to
26:14stifle that offense as well because even if Justin Herbert were a hundred percent
26:19running the football would be key for this Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh led
26:24offense just so you know in terms of that total 39 and a half wins the last
26:29time we saw Kansas City playing a football game with a total sub 40 last
26:34week it was a matchups a matchup of the unbeatens in the Steel City the Chargers
26:39lost their two and one did not cover the Steelers remain undefeated a perfect 3
26:46and 0 straight up and 3 and 0 against the number in fact the Steelers have
26:52covered in their last two games as a favorite I will make a point on this
26:57game there's a young quarterback on the other side with Anthony Richardson and a
27:01focus on the rookie QB's up next live right here on TEL one of the five
27:05remaining unbeatens at the end of week three it's the Pittsburgh Steelers the
27:10Steelers just keep winning football games under Mike Tomlin not just three
27:14you know straight up but three you know against the spread for the Steelers
27:18including Joe in their last two as the favorite side they're a slight favorite
27:23in Indianapolis on Sunday and here was the point I wanted to bring up on
27:27Pittsburgh when we think Mike Tomlin we think never a losing season never less
27:32than eight wins if they're an underdog boy is it going to be a gritty football
27:35game where the Steelers are going to keep it close but since the end of the
27:39Big Ben era in the Steel City Ben Roethlisberger's final year 2021 so
27:44since the start of 2022 the Steelers are the best favorite team in the NFL
27:49they have the best cover percentage as the favorite side 10 and 5 against the
27:53spread again it's a point and a half spread it's a virtual pick'em it's minus
27:56124 on the money line will Pittsburgh leave Indianapolis on Sunday still
28:01unblemished I don't think so Ben I mean the Steelers I have listen you can only
28:08play right the teams that are in front of you but when you look at what
28:14the Steelers have so far here that week one they played Kurt Cousins in his
28:19first game off in Achilles right and a new offense they played Bo Nix in his
28:24second career NFL start and then a banged-up Justin Herbert who ended up
28:29getting banged up again in the game and left when an ankle injury was their
28:32third win and they have basically handcuffed Justin Fields to the point
28:37where they're not letting him or putting him in a spot in which at any way are
28:42they gonna allow him to lose the game with his arm but I'll say this Anthony
28:48Richardson's gonna have to beat him with his arm and I do think he is more than
28:52capable at home in this spot in a desperate Colts team to be able to do
28:57just that on this secondary of Pittsburgh I don't know that they're
29:00gonna run on him but I bet you Richardson with his legs and his arm is
29:05more than capable of beating a Steelers team that you have to sell high on at
29:10this point in the season and that's what this line feels like right
29:14Indianapolis just one and two this year they did edge out Chicago last week but
29:21Anthony Richardson beating a team with his arm we haven't seen it yet he's the
29:24only quarterback a game this year in the National Football League with a
29:28completion percentage less than 50 percent forty nine point three he has
29:33thrown three touchdowns to six interceptions multiple INTs each of the
29:39past two weeks in the Steelers they've been good defensively the best scoring
29:43defense in the NFL the only team allowing less than ten points per game
29:48we'll focus on the rookie quarterbacks now in the offensive rookie of the year
29:52favorite is Jaden Daniels he has been sensational for Washington the
29:57commanders on a two-game win streak but a three and a half point underdog in the
30:01desert against the Arizona Cardinals this just the second game under Jonathan
30:06Gannon in what will now be game 21 with Gannon as the head coach that Arizona
30:12will be booked as the favorite week two against the Rams a slight favorite they
30:16made good on the confidence from the oddsmakers how close is this game out in
30:21Glendale on Sunday well close enough that if you're gonna get a hook you
30:26might as well take it but really to play here Ben to me is all about the over in
30:32this one if we're expecting any sort of a semblance of defense here we are
30:36sadly mistaken Washington's offense has not turned the ball over through three
30:42games and they haven't even punted in the last two games so Jaden Daniels is
30:48playing out of his mind they're not asking him to do a whole lot Luke
30:52McCaffrey is just a unbelievable get here I think that there's going to be a
31:00ton with Marvin Harrison jr. on the other side and that that hookup I think
31:06there is points points and more points coming and crazy enough and it still
31:10feels like both these things gonna come down to a field goal at the end of the
31:15day would not shock me it is the highest total of the weekend at 50 and a half
31:20but Joe I would agree the commanders are two and one but they did allow more than
31:2430 last week against the Bengals and had the Giants had great Joseph and week two
31:29Washington is probably one and two but they did not they just allowed a lot of
31:35touchdowns that is my point these are two of 14 teams around the NFL allowing
31:41more than 21 points per game the Cardinals 21.3 Washington 29.3 points
31:48per game they gave up 37 against Tampa in week number one I think we will see
31:52some points the commanders defense not great against the pass keep an eye on
31:57Kyler Murray also keep an eye on the quarterbacks utilizing their legs we
32:01know both can do that very well their yardage props are not out just yet but
32:06Jaden Daniels a couple of rushing scores already this year to at least 33 yards
32:11on the ground in all three games Kyler Murray 45 rushing yards in all three
32:16games for Arizona Joe this is another compelling number in my estimation in
32:21the Windy City on Sunday the Bears a three-point home favorite against the
32:26Rams total 40 and a half of course the Rams is near a touchdown underdog last
32:31week at home pulling off an upset nobody saw coming injured shorthanded against
32:36San Francisco the Bears have only been a favorite once at home week one not
32:42because of Caleb Williams but the defense and special teams they did win
32:46by a touchdown and covered against Tennessee what do you make of this
32:50matchup in Chicago on Sunday so the Rams keep this in mind the Rams have had
32:5611 different players take snaps on the offensive line so far this year no
33:03Cooper Cup no Puka Nakua and yet Matt Stafford is throwing the ball all over
33:08the yard finding open wide receivers and led them to that comeback and
33:13probable comeback against the 49ers here the Bears defense we know has been
33:19obviously the story and the reason why they've been competitive in some games
33:23but again you know just like we talked about it's gonna be up to Richardson to
33:27use his arm to beat him well it's gonna be up to Caleb Williams to finally find
33:32a receiver and I believe Keenan Allen is on track to return this week for him
33:37yeah but he's gonna have to beat him with his arm because everyone else can
33:41throw on the Rams if he can't we got serious and by the way Chicago don't win
33:45this game it's time to talk about hot seat with Ibra floos rather quickly big
33:51time Joe big time because the coaching staff might be holding back their number
33:55one overall pick both quarterbacks passing yards prop at 220 and a half
34:02we'll talk more rookie quarterbacks in just a minute Caleb Williams did throw
34:06for 362 last week and his first two touchdowns of his NFL career but a
34:11second consecutive game of multiple interceptions Matthew Stafford leading
34:16his 36th game winning drive of his NFL career last week to pull off the
34:21improbable upset over the 49ers plenty more to come around Sunday of our three
34:26starting rookie quarterbacks around the National Football League let's get to
34:30our third who is a hefty underdog once again in his matchup on Sunday the
34:37Denver Broncos and Bo Nix on the road in MetLife against the New York Jets seven
34:42and a half point spread in favor of gangrene a relatively low total of 39
34:47and a half of course it was the Broncos last week utilizing the strong trend we
34:53have seen this year as a five and a half point underdog going into Tampa and
34:57winning outright against the Buccaneers to pick up victory number one of this
35:02season first career win for Bo Nix seven and a half point spread Joe in favor of
35:09the New York Jets is it too large in favor of gangrene no on the other side
35:16it is not large enough Ben as far as I am concerned here listen jet fandom
35:23aside here this is a absolute brutal spot for the Denver Broncos and a rookie
35:29quarterback you're asking this kid to go on the road for a second week now taking
35:34on a Jets team who has extra rest to mind you because they played last
35:39Thursday night against New England and smashed him and I got news for you it
35:44feels this is the game that feels like it's gonna mimic very much what we got
35:48in that New England Jets game yeah they are gonna struggle to move the ball
35:52Denver Aaron Rodgers is gonna get more comfortable just the eye test tells me
35:57Ben that this is a Jets team with a Hall of Fame quarterback with all the weapons
36:02in the world that is getting more and more comfortable and the defense is
36:06going to make life for a rookie quarterback going on a road for a second
36:09week and I think what three out of four weeks now not a good spot here for
36:13Denver I think the Jets win rather easily at home in this one Garrett
36:18Wilson's receiving yards prop seems a little bit light 54 and a half keep an
36:23eye on the rookie running back out of Wisconsin for gangrene that is Braylon
36:27Allen but to your point Joe this does seem to be a spot the New York Jets
36:32take advantage again we mentioned it 17 times now an underdog of five and a half
36:36points or greater so far in this season including last night 15 and 2 against
36:42the spread are those underdogs one of the two non covers the New York Jets is
36:47a six and a half point favorite against the Patriots on Thursday night last week
36:51winning comfortably 24 to 3 entering last week none of the rookie QBs had
36:57thrown a passing touchdown both Jaden Daniels and Caleb Williams did throw to
37:02Bonick still yet to throw a touchdown but the good news for Denver last week
37:07zero interceptions for the first time in his NFL career he had thrown two in each
37:12of his first two games here are the props for the rookies that we will see
37:17on display on Sunday Daniels 215 and a half he is the rookie of the year
37:23favorite offensively followed by Malik neighbors followed by Marvin Harrison
37:27jr. I'll talk about MHJ a little bit later on in our pick six and you can see
37:31the rather humble numbers for Bonick as Joe described can Andy Dalton make it
37:38two in a row are the Bengals about to start 0 and 4 and the oddsmakers don't
37:44expect that to be the case the Bengals a four and a half point favorite Joe on
37:47the road in Charlotte against the Panthers on Sunday revenge game for Andy
37:53Dalton 47 and a half is the total what you're feeling on this one yeah I mean
37:59listen we know it 2% of teams of the Super Bowl era have started 0 and 3 and
38:03made the playoffs but but if there's a year that a team can buck that trend
38:09it's this year and it's the Bengals why because we have an extra game as well as
38:13an extra playoff spot Ben and as far as I'm concerned Cincinnati is going to
38:18figure it out with Luana rumo defensively offensively I don't even
38:23think we've gotten Cincinnati's best I still think offensively this is a top
38:29five to eight offensive team in the NFL I think they'll have no problem putting
38:34up points on anybody I have faith that the defense will figure it out and with
38:40an extra game and an extra team in the postseason and they haven't played
38:45anybody in their own division yet yeah I got no problem I think this is a gift
38:50at this number and the only reason you're getting it is because they're
38:53going three I think Bengals in a route it's gotta be a gift at this number
38:58frankly if since he even wants to sniff a winning record or a playoff berth in
39:03the AFC the Bengals one of three winless teams after three weeks that also
39:08includes the Jacksonville Jaguars a divisional game or Houston is laying six
39:13and a half at home against Jacksonville often difficult to cover near a
39:19touchdown spread in a divisional matchup what gives an H down yeah what gives is
39:25Jacksonville here is very much a live dog in this game here Ben there's a lot
39:31to say about this game we'll talk about it more on the other side as we continue
39:36our deep dive and our breakdown of each and every game all 13 on this NFL week
39:41for Sunday sleep up next you're on the early line all right right before the
39:45break Joe and Harry told you that Jacksonville one of the three winless
39:49teams left remaining in the National Football League after three weeks could
39:53be a live dog this week in Houston against the Texans Houston a six and a
39:59half point home favorite in this AFC South divisional showdown how live of a
40:05dog Geronery one of those five and a half point underdogs are greater that
40:09will cover a number or one of the five and a half point underdogs are greater
40:12that might win outright yes to both of those questions here Ben this is a
40:19unbelievably over reaction from the drubbing that Jacksonville got the 47 to
40:2610 loss in primetime against Buffalo listen the Jags closed as a five-point
40:31dog in Buffalo in that game right we watch the Texans close as a six-point
40:37home favorite to the Bears back in week two then they look like they've never
40:42played football against a real defense in the Vikings last Sunday Chicago is
40:46not better than Jacksonville in Houston is not better than Buffalo and yet here
40:51we are with a ton of line value at plus six and a half and you know the public's
40:56gonna continue to run to the window and bet Houston but there's a reason why
41:00sixes are starting to show up in the market on the Jags here it's a
41:05divisional game home field advantage is worth way less in divisional games this
41:10is the kind of spot in which if Jacksonville playing for jobs and season
41:16and everything else this is a game I would not shock me that they show up and
41:21and that Houston is gonna have to hold on for dear life to win this game and
41:26that's what it is Joe and that's why when we talked about it on Tuesday
41:30following our doubleheader on Monday Jacksonville probably not the same
41:34preseason expectation as the Bengals with a healthy Joe Burrow they have
41:39played in each of his two fully healthy years in an AFC championship game in one
41:43Super Bowl appearance but Jacksonville expected to rival the Texans atop the
41:48AFC South the divisional chance from two years ago and fumbling and stumbling
41:53down the stretch to allow Houston a chance at the divisional crown a season
41:57ago does so to start oh and three since 2000 again only one team the 2018 Texans
42:03in fact have made the postseason is damning for the Jaguars but if they
42:08don't win here it might be done you might see Doug Peterson fired at some
42:13point midway throughout this season you are certainly going to question Trevor
42:17Lawrence and if he deserved the big payday and raise this offseason and I
42:21will just say this right Houston did not look good last week they got routed in
42:25the Twin Cities against the Vikings they were a short road favorite for that
42:31game in Minneapolis if there is one blemish on CJ Stroud's young career it's
42:36his inability to cover numbers as a favorite now three seven and one are the
42:42Texans since the start of the CJ Stroud and D'Amico Ryan's era as a favorite
42:47against the numbers Joe you provided this tidbit of information to me as we
42:52were discussing the game during the commercial break we have yet to see a
42:56double-digit favorite throughout this NFL regular season it is the deepest
43:01into an NFL regular season that has ever been the case could change though on
43:06Sunday in Santa Clara the 49ers a ten and a half point favorite against the
43:11Patriots the over-under now up by a point to forty and a half frankly Joe I
43:16understand on paper an expectation throughout the entirety of this year why
43:21the Niners are laying double digits but based on these two teams entering I
43:26don't know why the Niners are laying double digits yeah it's kind of crazy
43:30here and they make it even worse for Patriot fans the last time that they
43:35closed as a double-digit dog you got to go back to week three of you ready for
43:40this 2001 when they played Peyton Manning in the Colts it was Tom Brady's
43:46first career start in for Drew Bledsoe and guess what New England won 44 to 13
43:52so this is there's history on both situations here where the market refuses
43:57to give us a double-digit dog and yet here we in all likelihood are going to
44:02have one here Kittle looks like he is trending to play but Deebo Samuel
44:08McCaffrey not going to be in the game so the question is what a little extra time
44:13under their belt here in New England do we have enough faith that they can keep
44:17this thing close on the road in Santa Clara I wouldn't be running to the
44:22window to lay double digits in this market right now with this team I don't
44:27know how you could what is the ten and a half point spread predicated on outside
44:32of the 49ers are good on paper and we still think they're the favorites to win
44:37the NFC is it George Kittles return Christian McCaffrey's over speaking
44:41German to people trying to figure out what is happening with his Achilles
44:45tendonitis Deebo Samuel is not going to play in this game Brock Purdy was listed
44:50as day-to-day because of back soreness yeah he's had to carry the team so far
44:54is it the emergence of Juwan Jennings that all to say San Francisco should win
44:59this game and probably will do so rather comfortably we saw the Patriots look way
45:03more competitive in the opening two weeks than we expected good luck running
45:07the football against the Niners I guess but Javon Hargrave the anchor of the
45:12interior of that defensive line is now out more than likely for the remainder
45:17of this season I don't understand why the Patriots are getting ten and a half
45:21in this spot and if they are by Sunday I think you can take advantage of the
45:25first double-digit spread we are going to see throughout 2024 not with an
45:31outright win mind you but maybe just the Patriots losing by a touchdown and
45:35keeping this game to a ten and a half point spread I'm not going to call it
45:41certainly not going to say that Rene all right I'll just say this Patriots
45:47biggest dog week one they won outright against Cincinnati 16 to 10 the Raiders
45:52were the biggest dog in week two against the Ravens they won outright the
45:56commanders last week were the biggest dog day 138 to 33 against Cincinnati so
46:02we already had three of the biggest dogs on the board went outright the
46:06first three weeks could this be the fourth whoo it is a good point the
46:11Patriots have already taken advantage of being that five and a half point
46:15underdog or greater now let's go to the NFC South showed out in a good one
46:20between the two divisional frontrunners despite the fact one team has a winning
46:24record and the other team has a losing mark to begin this is going to be a good
46:29game Joe and I think will tell us a lot about both of these teams and their
46:33outlook not just for Sunday but the rest of the season the Falcons a point and a
46:37half favorite minus 130 currently on the money line against the New Orleans
46:42Saints total only 42 and a half now I feel foolish I thought the Falcons would
46:47be a team entering this year you would look at and bet over over over they are
46:51one of eight teams at the end of three weeks that has been under in all three
46:55games of course the Saints were an offensive juggernaut scoring 91 points
46:59in their opening two games only to put up 12 with just one touchdown last week
47:05against the Philadelphia Eagles what do you expect in Atlanta between the
47:09Falcons and the Saints so this was the game first game that I I bet on Monday
47:14for the week Ben and I took the under and it was at 43 and a half it's down to
47:2042 now and yes I agree wholeheartedly with it they are listen the Eagles and
47:26Vic Fangio we were talking about Clint Kubiak and his scheme his blocking
47:32scheme on what we thought was a terrible New Orleans offensive line coming into
47:36the season and yet they're dropping 40 plus points on everybody except last
47:42week and the the Eagles which took away their ability to get big yards on first
47:48and second down how did they do that well they dropped six guys into the box
47:52and took away all of those those passing lanes and the stretching of the runs
47:58that New Orleans was implementing that's a blueprint now and you've got an
48:03Atlanta defense that is going to be or has already seen it now and they have
48:08absolutely the pieces and have had success in being able to limit this I
48:13think Atlanta and Philadelphia's defense are very similar I think they also will
48:18have no problem causing issues with a lot of check downs for Derek Carr the
48:23big plays as far as I'm concerned in this game throw him out the window I
48:26think this is going to be a 20 to 13 type of game I don't think we get to 40
48:32points with these two quarterbacks and these two defenses I like that Joe some
48:37conviction very similar numbers in Las Vegas on Sunday do you feel strongly
48:42about this game as well between the Browns and the Raiders I would rather
48:47throw up then have to watch this game or bet this game but if I was do not
48:54sleep on the Raiders in fact I'd go Raiders team total over hmm I have a
49:01different thought on that game but I'm throwing up thinking about it college
49:05football net